A new day in Ukraine: Political uncertainty sweeps divided nation

[folium]

Oh dear...wrong again. More homework needed.

There are many areas of northern Kazakhstan where Russians are the majority ethnic group. See attached map, dark pink are Russians >50% of the population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kazakhstan_Slavic_2010_Rus.png

If Putin sees Russian majority areas as open to "humanitarian" intervention a la Crimea/possibly E.Ukraine, Astana should be worried. Putin in 2000 came up with a bright idea of resettling all ethnic Russians in mother Russia. By that time many Russians had already left since independence in 1991 and those remaining had no intention of being uprooted....

I could do the same for the Baltic Republics too if you like....

Oh dear, no clue at all once again,

What is the language of Kazak or Uzbekistan or Estonia or Latvia? Is it Russian or Their native language?

Answer: Their native tongue, that would make those countries to have minority of Russians not majority

If some village has more Russians, it does not make them majority.

Instead of referring to wiki, try either visiting or reading real books

Really getting tiresome reading "your history and facts"

PS, In Baltic states, when you arrive in the airport and speak Russian, even though they speak it fluently, they will refuse to understand and will insist you either speak English or their native language. I guess its because they have the majority

PPS, Being so knowledgeable on all matters, i would have thought you knew about forum rules, NOT to cut someone's post when quoting it.

Oh dear more unfounded bluster....

Putin has kindly reserved the right to intervene militarily in eastern Ukraine if a "humanitarian" intervention is required to endure the safety of ethnic Russians. Even including Crimea, ethnic Russians comprise only 17.3% (source 2001 census) of Ukraine's population. However, in places such as Donetsk and Kharkiv the ethnic Russians do form a local/regional majority. Similarly in places such as northern Kazakhstan and parts of the Baltic Republics, while ethnic Russians are obviously in the overall minority there are local/regional examples of Russian majorities. See the map of Kazakhstan linked in my last post.

What is causing huge concern in the Baltic Republics and possibly Astana is that Putin's approach to pockets of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine could be replicated in their countries. Hence the chat about a Sudetenland-style approach of salami slicing neighbouring countries and former Soviet possessions under the pretext of defending oppressed minority kinfolk.

You seem to be long on opinion and threats but somewhat short on supporting evidence. Back up your claims, prove me wrong but please spare us the tirades.

PS thank you for the compliment re my omniscience, but it really is more a case of being "like a stream of bat's piss" (J. Cleese, 1973) in relation to certain posters.

Yet again, and each and every time, why do you change the subject?

You would not have a clue what Baltic States are thinking or what their concerns are.

Baltic states were the first states to separate from former USSR and have not been bothered ever since.

Baltic states want to be in EU and want to have a voice.

Baltic states were forcefully brought into USSR and hate Russians with passion from day one.

It was Estonian FM who discovered that snipers were not acting on orders from Russian backed president but were acting on someone else's orders.

Common sense would suggest that if Estonia is the one bringing it up, perhaps they are NOT as worried about Russia as you like to make up.

Who changed the subject? Still keen to see some evidence to back up your POV....

Quick selection of pieces re Baltic State and Ukraine. The last one is particularly interesting and highlights a way to diffuse potential inter-ethnic conflict.

http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/baltic_states_cis/?doc=88680

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-crisis-baltics-idUSBREA221J520140303

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/03/06/the-situation-in-ukraine-highlights-the-need-for-estonia-and-latvia-to-promote-greater-integration-among-their-ethnic-russian-populations/

[whoisyourdaddy]

Does anyone know the percentage of 'Yes' votes required in the March 16th referendum on whether Crimea should become a part of the Russian Federation? e.g. If its say, 55 percent, its just gerrymandering.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26465962

Whilst very different cicumstances, Australian required a 'Yes'vote of 75 percent to become a Republic, that percentile of 'yes' votes seemed fair to me when such as important matter was to be voted upon

Good question,will find out soon enough.

The only problem is, Ukraine does not want to give up or share Crimea, Ukraine wants to fully control it as past has shown, every time Crimea tried to side over with Russia, Kiev went banana's

As well they should. US would get upset if Mexico tried to annex Los Angeles and world would get upset if US tried to annex Toronto.

Russia's intrusion has zero to do with the people or what you say the people want. Putin does not give a flip about the people or their desires. He is motivated by other factors including a warm water port.

I must have missed when LA was part of Mexico, not that it has anything to do with subject at hand

Not sure why the same thin needs to be said over and over again. Crimea is of strategic importance to Russia, always has been.

The fact that majority living there are Russians is just an added bonus, as after giving it away Crimea always identified itself more with Russia than the Ukraine.

With the help of US and EU(which mind you was none of their business), Ukraine changed its direction, possibly leaving Russia open so it would be only natural for Russia to defend its interests.

It is totally' irrelevant if Obama or UK or Folium or yourself disagree, because Russia will do what is in its best interest and Putin already send clear massage to all "unhappy" people

Unlike most others, Russia will not be rolling over, just because US said so, if US imposes sanctions Russian already stated, NOT Only they will dump the currency but also freeze all US and EU investments.

I will say again, US mainly should shut up and back down and let Ukraine and Russia sort it out between themselves

The more noise US makes the harder line Russia will take, its simply a fact

[Jingthing]

I don't like the idea of backing down to dictator Putin. If the west is too passive, do you think he would stop at Crimea? Seems very unlikely. World War III also doesn't have much appeal. Not sure what the answer is but history has shown what happens when you cave in to bullies like Putin.

[whoisyourdaddy]

Who changed the subject? Still keen to see some evidence to back up your POV....

Quick selection of pieces re Baltic State and Ukraine. The last one is particularly interesting and highlights a way to diffuse potential inter-ethnic conflict.

http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/baltic_states_cis/?doc=88680

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-crisis-baltics-idUSBREA221J520140303

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/03/06/the-situation-in-ukraine-highlights-the-need-for-estonia-and-latvia-to-promote-greater-integration-among-their-ethnic-russian-populations/

Yeah, outlawing main spoken language is a way to diffuse : , especially in the zone of another countries military importance.

[whoisyourdaddy]

I don't like the idea of backing down to dictator Putin. If the west is too passive, do you think he would stop at Crimea? Seems very unlikely. World War III also doesn't have much appeal. Not sure what the answer is but history has shown what happens when you cave in to bullies like Putin.

Sadlly Jing, i do not think Putin cares much what you like or do not like, as he does not seem to care about likes of people with more weight than yourself,

He is protecting the interests of his country, just as your president is trying to impose your interests on other countries

[Jingthing]

I understand national interests but if the world doesn't respond to him I can't believe he won't continue. I don't accept that the world can do nothing. I do accept the world might do nothing or almost nothing. Talking about the western world that mostly opposes Putin now; I understand he has allies. This is the kind of situation that can spark bigger wars. I guess it isn't too surprising that the ex-KGB man couldn't change his stripes ... now we've got another east west conflict.

[whoisyourdaddy]

I understand national interests but if the world doesn't respond to him I can't believe he won't continue. I don't accept that the world can do nothing. I do accept the world might do nothing or almost nothing. Talking about the western world that mostly opposes Putin now; I understand he has allies. This is the kind of situation that can spark bigger wars. I guess it isn't too surprising that the ex-KGB man couldn't change his stripes ... now we've got another east west conflict.

The world is NOT responding.

Only US is making all the noise.

Perhaps if US did not show any interest, Putin would be taking different approach, but we will never know now, because US seem to want to escalate it by continuing to interfere.

If you recall the outrage by Russia did start way before,because of the phone call by US senator.

So no point scapegoating. now.

All irrelevant parties should mind their own business and let Russia and Ukraine sort it out between themselves.

[Jingthing]

It depends what happens. If it escalates and Ukraine fights and starts to get slaughtered by Putin's army, nobody knows how the world will respond. Ukraine doesn't seem to be showing that they will cave yet. We get it. Putin doesn't care what the western world thinks of him. After that Olympics propaganda show some might have thought differently, but he just pissed any of that PR away (which was limited anyway).

[whoisyourdaddy]

It depends what happens. If it escalates and Ukraine fights and starts to get slaughtered by Putin's army, nobody knows how the world will respond. Ukraine doesn't seem to be showing that they will cave yet.

LOL, of course not, US keeps making noise and Ukraine thinks US will come to its aid, not going to happen.

Not sure if you missed, but China already showed its "understanding" with Russia and Putin.

If real war breaks out, same thing will happen as Syria-absolutely nothing.

[Jingthing]

It depends what happens. If it escalates and Ukraine fights and starts to get slaughtered by Putin's army, nobody knows how the world will respond. Ukraine doesn't seem to be showing that they will cave yet.

LOL, of course not, US keeps making noise and Ukraine thinks US will come to its aid, not going to happen.

Not sure if you missed, but China already showed its "understanding" with Russia and Putin.

If real war breaks out, same thing will happen as Syria-absolutely nothing.

That's your opinion. My opinion is that there is a point where the U.S. and the west WOULD act and it seems Putin will test that point up to the limit. I don't believe the limit is grabbing Crimea.

[folium]

I understand national interests but if the world doesn't respond to him I can't believe he won't continue. I don't accept that the world can do nothing. I do accept the world might do nothing or almost nothing. Talking about the western world that mostly opposes Putin now; I understand he has allies. This is the kind of situation that can spark bigger wars. I guess it isn't too surprising that the ex-KGB man couldn't change his stripes ... now we've got another east west conflict.

The world is NOT responding.

Only US is making all the noise.

Perhaps if US did not show any interest, Putin would be taking different approach, but we will never know now, because US seem to want to escalate it by continuing to interfere.

If you recall the outrage by Russia did start way before,because of the phone call by US senator.

So no point scapegoating. now.

All irrelevant parties should mind their own business and let Russia and Ukraine sort it out between themselves.

Different countries respond in different ways depending on how much skin they have in the game, and also everyone is waiting to see where this crisis goes next.

Your comment about irrelevant parties also overlooks the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 which saw Ukraine, Russia, USA and UK sign off on maintaining the sovereignity and independence of Ukraine. Russia is now in breach on 3 out of 4 conditions of this treaty (only nuclear weapons have not been utilised, thank god).

Bottom line Russia has invaded a sovereign state and is currently subjecting a part of it to military occupation. While the rest of the world looked away when Abkhazia, South Ossetia and TransDneister underwent a similar occupation, Ukraine is the potential straw that breaks the camel's back. Crimea as a Russian strategic asset overlooks the other Black Sea port options (eg Novorossiyisk or Ochamchira in occupied Abkhazia) which could easily replace Sevastopol (and the possibility of this was considered by Russia when the extension of the Crimea lease was in doubt).

Particularly dangerous and ominous is Putin retaining the right to intervene in Eastern Ukraine if he deems there to be a threat to the localised majority ethnic-Russian populations. This raises the whole spectre of a Sudetenland style policy of piecemeal acqusition of other ex-Soviet possessions (such as Latvia, Estonia or Kazakhstan, all of which have exactly the same scenarios as E.Ukraine in terms of Ethnic Russian populations), or parts thereof all at Putin's whim and when it suits him.

Unless Putin realizes that he has pushed his luck too far this policy of territorial acquisition is likely to continue. If he gets away with this episode why not try again elsewhere? Obviously no sane person wants to set off a major world conflagration but all bullies in the end have to be stood up to, to put an end to their insiduous and destabilising behaviour.

[NeverSure]

I understand national interests but if the world doesn't respond to him I can't believe he won't continue. I don't accept that the world can do nothing. I do accept the world might do nothing or almost nothing. Talking about the western world that mostly opposes Putin now; I understand he has allies. This is the kind of situation that can spark bigger wars. I guess it isn't too surprising that the ex-KGB man couldn't change his stripes ... now we've got another east west conflict.

The world is NOT responding.

Only US is making all the noise.

Perhaps if US did not show any interest, Putin would be taking different approach, but we will never know now, because US seem to want to escalate it by continuing to interfere.

If you recall the outrage by Russia did start way before,because of the phone call by US senator.

So no point scapegoating. now.

All irrelevant parties should mind their own business and let Russia and Ukraine sort it out between themselves.

Different countries respond in different ways depending on how much skin they have in the game, and also everyone is waiting to see where this crisis goes next.

Your comment about irrelevant parties also overlooks the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 which saw Ukraine, Russia, USA and UK sign off on maintaining the sovereignity and independence of Ukraine. Russia is now in breach on 3 out of 4 conditions of this treaty (only nuclear weapons have not been utilised, thank god).

Bottom line Russia has invaded a sovereign state and is currently subjecting a part of it to military occupation. While the rest of the world looked away when Abkhazia, South Ossetia and TransDneister underwent a similar occupation, Ukraine is the potential straw that breaks the camel's back. Crimea as a Russian strategic asset overlooks the other Black Sea port options (eg Novorossiyisk or Ochamchira in occupied Abkhazia) which could easily replace Sevastopol (and the possibility of this was considered by Russia when the extension of the Crimea lease was in doubt).

Particularly dangerous and ominous is Putin retaining the right to intervene in Eastern Ukraine if he deems there to be a threat to the localised majority ethnic-Russian populations. This raises the whole spectre of a Sudetenland style policy of piecemeal acqusition of other ex-Soviet possessions (such as Latvia, Estonia or Kazakhstan, all of which have exactly the same scenarios as E.Ukraine in terms of Ethnic Russian populations), or parts thereof all at Putin's whim and when it suits him.

Unless Putin realizes that he has pushed his luck too far this policy of territorial acquisition is likely to continue. If he gets away with this episode why not try again elsewhere? Obviously no sane person wants to set off a major world conflagration but all bullies in the end have to be stood up to, to put an end to their insiduous and destabilising behaviour.

Interesting discussion. I had predicted earlier in this thread that Putin intended to take over all of Ukraine. I still think he did.

But since then he's been bitch slapped by seeing his stock market and the value of his currency tank overnight. He had to raise interest rates 1.5% overnight to defend his currency.

Sometimes wars are won by economics, as some would say the Cold War was. Russia ran out of money to support a communist USSR and it broke up. The Western Allies simply outspent Russia on military defense.

Now some leaders in the US are recommending the the US ship massive amounts of oil and natural gas to Europe to make Russia's supply irrelevant and bust Russia's economy. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani says that the US should have done it years ago.

The US has, as already mentioned in this thread, threatened to cut Russia off from US dollars.

The US stock markets tanked at first news of the Russian invasion, but has recovered and is back up as investors seem to be saying "ho hum."

Bottom line is that I think we, as in the Allies, can take care of this problem with Russia economically without firing a shot.

Just my $.02

[folium]

While many folks can't abide the man, if you watch this link Obama plays a pretty straight bat given all the constraints and Afghan/Iraq legacies the US/West has to get over.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-26476623

What more could a ____ (fill in the blank with alternative POTUS name ) do in this situation...?

[NeverSure]

Yep, can't stand him but no one gets everything wrong, LOL.

The US House just approved $1 billion in loan guarantees for Ukraine.

[Richard W]

I must have missed when LA was part of Mexico, ...

It was before your time. LA was Spanish and then Mexican until 1848.

[Jingthing]

Standing up to bullies is the only language they respect. Dictator Putin isn't as smart as he acts. He has made a mistake and there will be consequences.

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[whoisyourdaddy]

Standing up to bullies is the only language they respect. Dictator Putin isn't as smart as he acts. He has made a mistake and there will be consequences.

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Absolutely BUT for everybody involved. Some just have more to loose and less to gain

[simple1]

And here we go a big surprise

Crimea votes to join Russia, Obama orders sanctions

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/06/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140306

Funny, how AGAIN, it is the US who is AGAIN making rules, So much for democracy and all the blah blah

In a signal to Moscow, Obama announced plans to punish Russians and Ukrainians involved in what he called "threatening the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine". A U.S. official said Russian President Vladimir Putin was not on the list of those to be sanctioned.

The above delaration is subject to a referendum on 16th March. As already mentioned if the rules for the referendum getting over the line are say 55 percent of Yes votes from voters, it will be seen as a farce that will lead to negative disruption to Crimean society over many years to come.

[Jingthing]

If all of Ukraine accepts the split then it is OK. As it stands Crimea is part of Ukraine. Yes we know the history ... still wouldn't make this a legit split as it is being done and yes it is being done.

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[Cricketnut]

If all of Ukraine accepts the split then it is OK. As it stands Crimea is part of Ukraine. Yes we know the history ... still wouldn't make this a legit split as it is being done and yes it is being done.

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The referendum is only constitutional if the whole country participate as per the Ukrainian constitution. If it is only Crimea, null and void...

[Jingthing]

If all of Ukraine accepts the split then it is OK. As it stands Crimea is part of Ukraine. Yes we know the history ... still wouldn't make this a legit split as it is being done and yes it is being done.

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The referendum is only constitutional if the whole country participate as per the Ukrainian constitution. If it is only Crimea, null and void...

Right, but Putin is telling his big lie anyway and people who support him will think that's fine.

[Cricketnut]

If all of Ukraine accepts the split then it is OK. As it stands Crimea is part of Ukraine. Yes we know the history ... still wouldn't make this a legit split as it is being done and yes it is being done.

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The referendum is only constitutional if the whole country participate as per the Ukrainian constitution. If it is only Crimea, null and void...

Right, but Putin is telling his big lie anyway and people who support him will think that's fine.

That's quite OK as well. If Putin keeps going down this road it will simply end in economic sanctions and the fall of the Russian economy. Its simply called an economic blockade aka the days of the 80's and then the Russians themselves will kick Putin's ass! Let him play it our Merkel and co are not dum. Russia will not be allowed to get away with this one, but heck let's see them try. Its similar to Melbourne, Australia were you have the second largest Greek speaking community living and speaking Greek / English outside of Greece, reverse the situation and let's see if it could eventuate under the same constitution? It can't. The states around Victoria would simply impose sanctions until it crippled the state. The same will be done to Russia again... I know it sounds oh so simplistic when it actually isn't, but this is in layman's terms to cover a complicated event in the simplest terms possible.

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[Scott]

A whole lot of off-topic, inflammatory and troll posts and replies have been deleted. Suspensions will be issued.

[F430murci]

I agree with Neversure. Internal pressure related to economic issues is dictating Putin's pull back from his original intentions.

[Jingthing]

Explaining why Putin's bullying was a mistake for Putin and Russia:

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-march-6-2014/kimberly-marten

More:

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-march-6-2014/exclusive---kimberly-marten-extended-interview-pt--2

Henry Kissinger. He's still alive!

Public discussion on Ukraine is all about confrontation. But do we know where we are going? In my life, I have seen four wars begun with great enthusiasm and public support, all of which we did not know how to end and from three of which we withdrew unilaterally. The test of policy is how it ends, not how it begins.

Far too often the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine joins the East or the West. But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other — it should function as a bridge between them.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html

[Pakboong]

"The far right is largely modelled on the nationalist movement that developed from the 1920s, when most of what is now Ukraine was divided between Poland and Soviet Russia. From the start it was shaped by a variety of influences: Italian fascism, the partial collaboration — for pragmatic or ideological reasons — of some of its representatives (such as Bandera) with Nazi Germany, the participation of several Ukrainian battalions in the massacre of Jewish and Polish civilians during the second world war.

Political scientist Andreas Umland, who teaches at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, said: “There are no objective historical accounts of Bandera’s [career]. Russian historians portray him as a fascist ally of the Nazis, while Ukrainian historians praise him without reserve. His admirers on Independence Square take a naïve and biased view of him, which is a problem. But it seems equally biased and dishonest to call him a fascist, as the Russians do” (2)."

http://rinf.com/alt-news/latest-news/kievs-independence-square/

This is not main stream news stuff. Reminds me of Mark Twain's comment on the Main Stream Media over 100 years ago: "If you don't read the newspaper you are uniformed; if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed". Samuel Clemens was not an idiot. The same situation with regard to the Mainstream media is true today. They need White House approval to release anything remotely controversial.

[Pakboong]

WASHINGTON (INTELLIHUB) — Tuesday evening while speaking to Fox News host Bill O’Reilly, Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich dropped information on the situation that is rarely heard in the mainstream media.

In the interview, Kucinich revealed that the United States government was guilty of funding some of the violent rebel groups who have overrun the country.

Merely pointing out there are many extreme views on this subject. Not endorsing Kucinich, don't know much about him other his willingness to be different.

Victoria Nuland(asst secretary of state) was caught claiming the US has spent $10 billion seeking regime change in the Ukraine.

emphasis added!!

[jamhar]

FYI

For First Time, Kremlin Signals It Is Prepared to Annex Crimea

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/08/world/europe/ukraine.html?hpw&rref=world

[Scott]

A post violating fair use has been removed.

[ABCer]

There are laws of nature one cannot circumvent.

Ukraine is not a homogeneous country.

It is a salad (smorgasbord) of territories lumped together unnaturally.

Peace and stability for Ukraine - that is they can do whatever they (Ukrainians) want - can only happen with sacrifices:

Give 'West Ukraine' back to Poland.

Give 'Crimea' back to Tartars.

Retake all People's assets stolen ('privatized') by the thieving 'Governments' in the past 35 years.

Allow population to speak the language they want and associate with the culture they belong to.

As long as this is considered impossible ( and it is near impossible IMHO ) - there will be no peace and no stability.

Back to current situation:

Russia is no Iraq, no Syria, no Afghanistan. Putin is not Saddam, not Assad and not 'whatshisname'.

Sanctions will hurt the West more than Russia.

Military actions are nonsense.

There are more than 50% of Russians in many parts of Ukraine.

Legally and logically Russia is within their rights.

EC needs Ukraine as a market and a bread basket. They will never allow Ukraine in, just as Turkey.

And, please, keep in mind that I am not for Putin or for Russia.