Danger of civil war: Prayuth

[webfact]

POLITICS
Danger of civil war: Prayuth

THE NATION

Surapong approaches UN chief to find solution to conflict; PM plays down rhetoric

BANGKOK: -- CARETAKER PRIME MINISTER Yingluck Shinawatra yesterday dismissed red-shirts' rhetoric of a division of the country and asked them to exercise restraint, as Army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha warned the country risked sliding into civil war due to the ongoing political rift.

Meanwhile, caretaker Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul turned to the United Nations for possible help with Thailand's impasse.

The government wishes to have a dialogue with anti-government protesters, rather than resorting to violence to end the conflict, Yingluck told reporters in the northern province of Chiang Rai yesterday.

"We are all suffering from the conflict. The social divide is leading to violence, causing loss of lives," she said.

Two M-79 grenades were fired last night at a police-owned compound on Vibhavadi Road where the government's Centre for Maintaining Peace and Order is located, while a third was fired into the compound of the adjacent Thai PBS TV station. There were no casualties. One of the grenades that landed in the compound of the Royal Thai Police Sports Club did not explode, while the one fired into the Thai PBS compound hit the parking area and damaged some vehicles. As of press time, it was still not known which site was the real target of the attack.

Political violence since last November has caused 22 deaths, including children, and injured more than 700 people.

The People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) led by former opposition politician Suthep Thaugsuban continues to demand Yingluck step down and hand power to an interim government and an unelected "People's Council" to reform the country.

Pro-government red-shirt groups in the north and northeast have vowed to move against the PDRC. Some want the country to be partitioned, with the current government running its strongholds in the north and northeast - with Chiang Mai or Khon Kaen as its capital - while Bangkok and the South would be given to the elite establishment, opposition Democrat Party and PDRC.

Security officials said people on the different sides of the dispute have very different political ideas, making it difficult to achieve a compromise, and are likely to take up weapons against each other.

In a short message to an AFP reporter in response to a question, General Prayuth said: "Absolutely, there will be civil war if all sides do not respect the rules. The military will do everything for the country and the people... not for a particular side."

Both protest leaders and government leaders bear "responsibility for the losses", Prayuth wrote, a day after warning in a rare televised speech that the country risked "collapse" unless it pulled back from the brink.

Later, Prayuth, in his capacity as deputy director of Internal Security Operations Command, instructed provincial governors to boost security.

Surapong said he would seek advice from United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on how to end the political conflict.

"I called UN Secretary General Ban [yesterday] morning to consult on the matter and will send an official invitation to him later," he said. "I think he will agree with us." The UN should step in to intervene in the situation in Thailand before it develops into a critical stage.

"Abhisit Vejjajiva is worried the election would not be free and fair; the UN has facilities to hold free and fair elections," Surapong said, adding nobody should consider such a UN role as intervention in domestic affairs.


-- The Nation 2014-02-27

[Bkkbound]

The military are already on the streets of Bangkok in large numbers, he is clearly giving the Shins the option to step aside before the deployed troops move to the next stage in which they implement court orders and impose a change of PM and take out the key red shirt leaders. Are we hours away from the decisive move.?

Edited February 26, 2014 by Bkkbound

[GATHER]

UN should not intervene , it is not they're country or responsibility .

What does matter is that the government should not have rigged votes , a reform should take place since most of the parties are very influenced by bribes from Thaksin Regime .

[tezzainoz]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

[Cylon]

Most countries go forward, Thailand is going backwards rapidly.

[Thai at Heart]

There will be civil war if the sides don't respect the rules?

What rules because for 10years its all been made up on the hoof.

[bangkokheat]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

my god, sooo many questions

[HD 205]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

Yes, to all.

[DonThaiToMe]

Hmmm... Let´s see, wich one sounds more serious than the other. The ones that have saught aafter talks from the beginning, and also are ready to let the UN in too oversee the elections (again).

Or this guy who have broken more promises during the last 4 months than there are observable stars in the night sky. And prompts for an unelected peoples council for reform.

And it´s everyones guess what this so called reform will be, because he won´t tell.

Not a difficult choice really.....

[Thai at Heart]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

There is a moment here where every farang married to a Thai woman knows he should just stop asking silly questions and shut up.

[MK1]

The Military know the UDD and Yingluck government have two faces and right now suddenly they’re showing no face at all because they know Thailand is on the brink of sliding two-ways; threat of Civil war or threat of Coup by the Military to seize control.

Since Yingluck is playing safe by remaining in the North, Chiang Mai yesterday, when she should be in Bangkok to face the NACC, I believe a Coup now would be conveniently on the cards otherwise more innocent lives could be lost.

Edited February 27, 2014 by MK1

[tezzainoz]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

There is a moment here where every farang married to a Thai woman knows he should just stop asking silly questions and shut up.

So I take it, here on Thai Visa every one has a comment

but know one knows the rules

are we not worse than the Thais we complain about something we know nothing about

maybe when the farang overseas wake up I will get plenty of answers to my questions

[Somtamnication]

No, we complain because it affects us, our families, children and jobs.

[chainarong]

Bring in the U.N. to monitor voting , indicates to the rest of the world that Thai's cannot be trusted, they better believe it ,they can't be trusted , I am referring here to the supposed ruling jack asses that run the country , as for a civil war , only time will tell , CIC Gen Prayuth has the situation on board, however any further escalation of violence will involve the military, others will not stand by and watch the country disintegrate before their eye's.

[animatic]

UN should not intervene , it is not they're country or responsibility .

What does matter is that the government should not have rigged votes , a reform should take place since most of the parties are very influenced by bribes from Thaksin Regime .

"... it is not they're country..."

The UN has no country, it has countries that are members.

And one of it's job is to intervene between countries and sometimes factions within countries.

Thailand IS a member of the UN.

As to the english:

They're and international group, their job is to make peace more easily maintained.

[Yunla]

I don't see civil war happening at all, there's too many people who are sick of both PTP and the Dems. The Dems lost a lot of support imho when Abhisit stepped out of the political sphere and put his presence into the overthrow movement. For more mainstream Dems this was not acceptable as the Suthep movement was blocking voters etc. and this has backfired on the Dems imho. Both main parties are weakened by the events of the last six months, which may be a blessing if enough disillusioned people gather around a third and more moderate new party.

Rather than civil war I would see a prolonged staggering effect, with the situation lurching on golem-like with scattered brigandry attacks and more political catfighting, until it either fizzles out or is stopped by the military.

[andygunther]

Hmmm... Let´s see, wich one sounds more serious than the other. The ones that have saught aafter talks from the beginning, and also are ready to let the UN in too oversee the elections (again).

Or this guy who have broken more promises during the last 4 months than there are observable stars in the night sky. And prompts for an unelected peoples council for reform.

And it´s everyones guess what this so called reform will be, because he won´t tell.

Not a difficult choice really.....

Yes! the choice is easy.

If you look back further than these 4 months.

That was when people had enough of this corrupt government.

[Katipo]

This will be good for tourism.

[Arjay]

"Meanwhile, caretaker Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul turned to the United Nations for possible help with Thailand's impasse.

The government wishes to have a dialogue with anti-government protesters, rather than resorting to violence to end the conflict, Yingluck told reporters in the northern province of Chiang Rai yesterday". Dialogue? This prime minister has lost credibility and confidence. She needs to step down and the Shinawatra's need to retire from politics.

[Mackie]

I don't see civil war happening at all, there's too many people who are sick of both PTP and the Dems. The Dems lost a lot of support imho when Abhisit stepped out of the political sphere and put his presence into the overthrow movement. For more mainstream Dems this was not acceptable as the Suthep movement was blocking voters etc. and this has backfired on the Dems imho. Both main parties are weakened by the events of the last six months, which may be a blessing if enough disillusioned people gather around a third and more moderate new party...

I beg to differ. The Dems didn't lose any support as the vast majority of Dems actually decided to boyccot the election. Both parties are damaged, Democrats to a lesser extent. However, as long as PTP continue covering up massive corruption and supporting UDD militants within their own ranks there is no future for Thailand. PTP made the deal with the terrorists for cheap political gains. Jatuporn, Nattawut, Kwanchai, Tida and similar ilk breed on violence. As for Suthep, I think anyone can notice that the mainstream democrats cleraly distanced themselves from him. PTP has not done it yet. I still wait for their mainstream politicans to come out in force and publicly condemn killings of children. As for Suthep, has no political future in Thailand. Everyone should realise that by now.

[bobmac10]

The military are already on the streets of Bangkok in large numbers, he is clearly giving the Shins the option to step aside before the deployed troops move to the next stage in which they implement court orders and impose a change of PM and take out the key red shirt leaders. Are we hours away from the decisive move.?

well well surprise surprise.... the end game. This is what the plan was from the first minute Yingluck was elected.

These bast*rds will never rest until they're back in power.

First it was the airport sit in then it was Suthep and his bunch of 1000 baht a day protesters.

the military can't make it too obvious like last time... so they have to pretend they're going to stop a civil war.

How can a few thousand paid protesters cause a civil war?

Simple, throw a few grenades into the crowd. Block people from going about their lawful duties.

Suthep is a paid puppet for the big Bangkok families. The OLD MONEY.

And all you twits believe Suthep and his mob will suddenly morph into a corruption free government?

Come on you don't really believe that do you?

Silly silly.

[Arjay]

"Meanwhile, caretaker Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul turned to the United Nations for possible help with Thailand's impasse". I thought big brother Thaksin once said "The U.N. is not my father".

[Just1Voice]

UN should not intervene , it is not they're country or responsibility .

What does matter is that the government should not have rigged votes , a reform should take place since most of the parties are very influenced by bribes from Thaksin Regi

By your xenophobic response, I'll assume you are a Thai, and probably a backer of PDRC as well. However, I could be wrong.

[Just1Voice]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

There is a moment here where every farang married to a Thai woman knows he should just stop asking silly questions and shut up.

+1

[focus27]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

Many of your issues were discussed in this topic: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/702671-sound-of-ticking-time-bombs-is-getting-louder-for-yingluck/

I think the 'journalist' is wrong in his 1st March date (he probably thinks February has 31 days) and I agree that the 30 days expires on the 3rd/4th March.

At that point, power passes to the National Assembly but there are two problems: firstly, the House of Reps has not convened so only the Senate gets to vote on the next step; and, comically, even the Senate can't seem to vote because over half its members step down on the 1st March due to the elections on the 30th!

The National Assembly then has up to 30 days to come up with a solution, which would be the selection of an interim government to replace the current caretaker gov. They don't have to wait the full 30 days, but given the senatorial election I'm not sure if the remaining selected senators can act by themselves. the Senate also has a 50% quorum for voting, so I suspect they have to wait for the new batch of senators to be seated.

That then takes us to 3rd April. All senatorial bums will be on seats and a decree submitted for a new interim gov. This assumes that nobody messes with the senatorial election process! Then that would be a constitutional black hole.

I don't think a government can exist without any executive, so assume the caretaker gov will remain in place until the interim gov is installed.

I'm not sure this is 100% correct but is my best estimate of the near future

[Suradit69]

I have heard many many times that all Thai's should live by the rules

But what are the rules

I have read that Yingluck has till the 4th March to have an election or it is all over

Every time I talk to a Thai including my wife the rules change

so is there a rule that says an election must be called with in ? days ?

If so is this the 2nd of March ?

As this is only 3 days away is this possible ?

If it is not held by this day, is it all over, or an they hold some time in the future ?

If the 4th arrives and there is no election then is Yingluck still the caretaker prime minister ?

If the answer is no at what times does her Caretaker finish ?

If she refuses the step down and stays under the protection of the red shirts, what is the rule ?

can she refuse to step down ?

Can the red shirts demand to serceed from the south

on what date is the 180 days finish for the government to pass the "Amersty Bill" on its own ?

Mysef and many others would like to know these answers

There is a moment here where every farang married to a Thai woman knows he should just stop asking silly questions and shut up.

"There is a moment here where every farang married to a Thai woman knows he should just stop asking silly questions and shut up."

But if farang stop posing silly questions (or struggling unsuccessfully to compose coherent messages) that would be the end of Thai Visa. I don't see the need to restrict it to husbands of Thai women.

[Johnnie99]

UN should not intervene , it is not they're country or responsibility .

What does matter is that the government should not have rigged votes , a reform should take place since most of the parties are very influenced by bribes from Thaksin Regime .

"... it is not they're country..."

The UN has no country, it has countries that are members.

And one of it's job is to intervene between countries and sometimes factions within countries.

Thailand IS a member of the UN.

As to the english:

They're and international group, their job is to make peace more easily maintained.

I think you mean English, with a capital 'E'.

[BudRight]

Prayuth is right. Civil war is very dangerous.

[user82374298374]

> I don't think a government can exist without any executive, so assume the caretaker gov will remain in place until the interim gov is installed.

> I'm not sure this is 100% correct but is my best estimate of the near future

I believe this is the strategy (for Thai values of 'strategy') which has been mutually agreed upon by the PTP government and the military. This approach gives the PTP an out, because they can stop riding the tiger without the loss of face associated with quitting, while simultaneously avoiding a coup. This is a win-win scenario for the PTP and for the establishment.

This is why Prayuth has sounded much more statesmanlike and less blustery in his recent public pronouncements. The PTP government and the military are triangulating towards this outcome.

Edited February 27, 2014 by disambiguated

[whoisyourdaddy]

No, we complain because it affects us, our families, children and jobs.

How?

Do tell how government change affects you and your job?