Eyes on Senate as clock ticks down for PM Yingluck

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NATION ANALYSIS
Eyes on Senate as clock ticks down for PM
Somroutai Sapsomboon
The Nation



With Yingluck caught in serious legal strife, focus is turning to the Senate poll, Pheu Thai and a possible power vacuum

BANGKOK: -- The People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) and other perceived opponents of the Yingluck Shinawatra government are coming close to throwing a knockout punch.

They have delivered several heavy blows against the government before. But now, they are more convinced than ever that a clear victory is in sight.

The House of Representatives, after all, has already failed to convene within 30 days of the February 2 general election.

With the House not having a quorum of 95 per cent of MPs, a vote cannot be held for a new prime minister.

What has happened here, while the caretaker government is in power, is clearly against legal stipulations.

So last Friday, for those reasons, the PDRC's legal team called on the Constitutional Court to rule on the status of caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

Today, appointed Senator Paiboon Nititawan will also ask the Senate speaker to petition the Constitutional Court for a ruling on whether Yingluck can still remain in power.

Paiboon will point at the Supreme Administrative Court's finding that her order to transfer Thawil Pliensri from head of the National Security Council was improper.

Last Friday, the court also ordered Thawil's reinstatement within 45 days.

"From Thawil's case, it is clear Yingluck has violated the Constitution. She has meddled in reshuffles of officials," Paiboon said.

The latest moves by the anti-government camp have already caused big worries among Pheu Thai members.

"If the Constitutional Court rules against Yingluck and removes her as prime minister, the whole Cabinet may come crumbling down too. In that case, the PDRC will get the political vacuum it wants," a Pheu Thai source said.

The PDRC has pressed Yingluck to resign from her post as caretaker prime minister since late last year, to create a political vacuum, which the group says will pave the way for the much-needed "reform before election".

While the PDRC street protests have been huge at times, Yingluck has not bowed to the pressure to move aside.

Besides street protests, she also faces probes related to other alleged wrongdoing or negligence. The National Anti-Corruption Commission, for example, is investigating her for her role in the controversial rice-pledging scheme.

But none of the inquiries seems serious enough to bring down her whole Cabinet.

Pheu Thai Party, which leads the current government, believes that as long as it can name a successor for Yingluck, it won't be a problem if she has to go.

Pheu Thai also thinks it can cope with the repercussions of any court decision to nullify the February 2 election because it believes it can do well if it has to contest a new election.

So, the utmost fear of the Yingluck camp now is a political vacuum.

The PDRC is apparently biding its time to set up a People's Government or "neutral" government.

So if there is a political vacuum that prevents Pheu Thai from being able to name a national leader, the PDRC can quickly pursue its plan.

In the event of a political vacuum, the Senate speaker will become a key man because he has the authority to present the name of the new prime minister for royal endorsement.

The PDRC has been trying hard to get Nikom Wairatpanij kicked out of the Senate-speaker's post for quite a long time already for this reason. The PDRC prefers the First Deputy Senate Speaker Surachai Liengboonlertchai to Nikom. If Nikom is out of the way, Surachai is seen as more likely to respond to any requests from the PDRC.

Nikom's term as an elected senator expired earlier this month. A half-Senate election will be held on March 30 to fill 77 non-appointed seats. Nikom still serves as Senate speaker because the law requires that he stays in charge until the new Senate speaker is chosen.

Many politicians have fielded family members, close aides or canvassers in the Senate ballot as they are well aware that the Senate may be able to control the political game.

Although the red shirts continue to support the Yingluck government and her party, they may not be able to make much of a difference if the Army maintains its presence.

With military checkpoints ringing Bangkok, the Army's intention is clear.

The PDRC and its supporters believe that success is just around the corner now that Yingluck is ensnared in many serious legal predicaments.

And the red shirts can't be Yingluck's saviours this time.

But will the political game really go the way the PDRC expects? Or will there be a surprise ending?


-- The Nation 2014-03-10

[Costas2008]

Good Bye Yingluck,

Hope we never see you or hear about you again.

[Blackmirage2013]

Tick, tock, tick, tock!!!

Let's face it folks... Yingluck is a clown who shops better than she governs. She was elected with zero experience, questionable academic achievements and no other qualifications other than being able to use hard earned tax baht to throw at poor people, like throwing peanuts to bears in the zoo, with no fiscal responsibility.

We need to move forward with real leaders who have and use their brains. We need leaders who actually care - even just a little - about the people, instead of saying they care, but acting like they do not. I am amazed that this woman can sleep at night after going to temple and tambooning then going out and lying to people about her intentions... she must think she is fooling Buddha and also BRIBING HIM by giving money and then acting like a horse's butt in real life.

[ramrod711]

Although the red shirts continue to support the Yingluck government and her party, they may not be able to make much of a difference if the Army maintains its presence.

A very polite way of saying that the UDD will not be able to intimidate, burn, bomb and impose their will on the taxpayers.

[Somtamnication]

What a complete and utter disaster!

[chainarong]

The PTP has a reputation of systematic failures and this is just another one looming , their constant disregard for the rules of law , finds them now looking down the barrel of a gun, they cannot be taken as serious contenders for the Government of Thailand , however there are many who would disagree , I challenge one of the daily newspapers , do some research and let the People know of the failures and successes the PTP have actually had.

Edited March 10, 2014 by chainarong

[jcb2001]

This article is encouraging. While I hope it's true, I also fear that Thaksin will not go away peacefully. I will anxiously stand by waiting for that fatal knockout punch to be delivered.

[PatOngo]

Tick, tock, tick, tock!!!

Let's face it folks... Yingluck is a clown who shops better than she governs. She was elected with zero experience, questionable academic achievements and no other qualifications other than being able to use hard earned tax baht to throw at poor people, like throwing peanuts to bears in the zoo, with no fiscal responsibility.

We need to move forward with real leaders who have and use their brains. We need leaders who actually care - even just a little - about the people, instead of saying they care, but acting like they do not. I am amazed that this woman can sleep at night after going to temple and tambooning then going out and lying to people about her intentions... she must think she is fooling Buddha and also BRIBING HIM by giving money and then acting like a horse's butt in real life.

555............ Good luck on that one!

[Deez]

I think she will be happy to leave politics behind. She has aged 20 years and gained 10KG. She was doing quite well before big brother came calling.

[northernjohn]

Although the red shirts continue to support the Yingluck government and her party, they may not be able to make much of a difference if the Army maintains its presence.

A very polite way of saying that the UDD will not be able to intimidate, burn, bomb and impose their will on the taxpayers.

I think the red shirts pretty much took them selves out of the game when they forced the army to step in and investigate their threat of separating the nation.

It would have looked nice on Yingluck if she had immediately called a press conference and denounced them for it and relieved the ministers supporting it of their duties. Instead she hid and finally issued a statement on Facebook insisting that the Army investigate all parties equally for separation.

Wasn't there some thing about the Farmers being paid their money ion March 7. Can't remember to many dates to pay it. Should get a calendar.

the PTP say they are for democracy. Is it democracy forcing farmers into over whelming debts by with holding their money?

[focus27]

Thing is, there is a sequence of events within the Constitution that allows for an unelected Council of Ministers... so long as it is initiated by the current Ministers and meets the approval of the National Assembly, currently being just the Senate. It is amusing that the Constitution appears to allow an unelected autocracy to propagate its power through Emergency Decrees. (I wonder who thought up that bit?!)

So it is possible for the PTP to propose a new PM and Cabinet, for it to be accepted by the Senate and a Royal Decree issued. But that's far too easy! It may not be a "government of unity" but it could be a "government of expedience". The problem, of course, is that this would still be unacceptable to the PDRC and its backers and we would be back to the present, just with different faces.

The same mechanism could even be used by the PTP to gracefully bow out and hand over power to the Suthepistas. No, seriously, they could!!

At some point, the Thais need to amend this Constitution as the current tactic can be used over and over again by any disgruntled party.

[djjamie]

I think she will be happy to leave politics behind. She has aged 20 years and gained 10KG. She was doing quite well before big brother came calling.

True. If she looses her looks she will have nothing left.

[seajae]

it would be great if all these idiots just put the country first instead of their finances/shins. Thailand needs a good parliament not one that simply lines all their personal wealth or that of family and friends. The ptp is thaksins baby and all they do is what he tells them to which is not for the benefit of all, trouble is the dems are not much better. What Thailand needs are politicians that want the country to flourish and the general public to do well, all the people not just one group as this is the only way for it to go forward. All this bickering is becoming embarassing for both sides as they continue to play their little games.

[gemini81]

Her epic failure that we predicted, and have long awaiting is finally approaching. She had plenty of time to turn things around and do the job she was delegated to do. Without her, the country will be much better off.

[lostinsurin]

And the yellow farangs start to dream again.

How many times have you declared victory now?

[virtualtraveller]

Ultimately you have to beat Thaksin in the hearts and minds of the rural poor. Anything heavy handed to remove his pawns without a good reason will only fire up the red shirts into desperate acts, just like the yellows. As long as Yingluck is left in place to bumble along she will erode PTPs confidence as the rice scheme dissastifaction amplifies. Let this drag on to the point where many farmers abandon PTP, once their position is weakened beyond repair and Thaksin loses the support of the poor majority, you can negotiate a peaceful compromise on terms that snaffle out his ambitions. He will go down fighting for sure. Trying to remove YIngluck by any means other than ballot, valid or not, plays into Thaksin's hands. But if she can be 'technically' disqualified and replaced by someone more palatable, then maybe Suthep can be persuaded to go home.

[Goat Roper]

Good Bye Yingluck,

Hope we never see you or hear about you again.

Dang it! We won't get to hear any more of her incoherent English news interviews! I'll miss that.

[dru2]

And the yellow farangs start to dream again.

How many times have you declared victory now?

Patience. You'll see.

[WhizBang]

This country is soooo in need of major reform. Top to bottom, left to right. Until that happens, nothing will change here.

The big unanswered question here is... what will Thaksin's response be to the removal of poo, the disolution of the PTP and the banning of it's members? Civil war perhaps.

Are the reds really that stupid?

Is Thaksin?

Ok, that last question was rhetorical.

[englishoak]

If the Senate speaker chooses he had better choose wisely and very carefully, There is no Neutral choice, installing a defacto "peoples choice" with yellow ribbons without the backing of the people ie the real electorate will be a lot harder than the wave of a magic wand if things are not to erupt into chaos here again in short order.

Imo it would be a lot lot safer and fair to call fresh elections and fully contested by all parties this time and not blockaded.

[Baerboxer]

I don't believe YL will give up her caretaker role - her brother won't allow it.

Whatever court rulings, constitutional, NACC, negligence, abuse of power, corruption etc go against YL will be ignored. Cousin number 1 was instructed to explain to the international community how all this was a "conspiracy" against YL, PTP and Thaksin. All just politically motivated. Don't worry if it's true or not - just remember it's a political conspiracy against us - we come from democracy with landslide victory. Same old PTP rhetoric, smoke and mirrors etc.

The recruiting of an "army" and its veiled threat - hardly subtle from some quarters, and the hysteria stoked up in the North, The sudden dampening down of farmers' protests even the vow to pay was not honored.

All points to YL and PTP going no where. They will have to be dragged kicking and screaming from power; or play a leading role in any so called compromise. They cannot afford for the books to be opened up. No choice really.

[lostinsurin]

Ultimately you have to beat Thaksin in the hearts and minds of the rural poor. Anything heavy handed to remove his pawns without a good reason will only fire up the red shirts into desperate acts, just like the yellows. As long as Yingluck is left in place to bumble along she will erode PTPs confidence as the rice scheme dissastifaction amplifies. Let this drag on to the point where many farmers abandon PTP, once their position is weakened beyond repair and Thaksin loses the support of the poor majority, you can negotiate a peaceful compromise on terms that snaffle out his ambitions. He will go down fighting for sure. Trying to remove YIngluck by any means other than ballot, valid or not, plays into Thaksin's hands. But if she can be 'technically' disqualified and replaced by someone more palatable, then maybe Suthep can be persuaded to go home.

Good points made would also apply with regards to Suthep,

we would read that he said this and that everyday, but now very quiet. (even on TV, showing it's colors)(US)

He was beginning to annoy his own, so was no doubt told to take a backseat

or has some other movement behind the scenes occurred.

[wolfmanjack]

I think she will be happy to leave politics behind. She has aged 20 years and gained 10KG. She was doing quite well before big brother came calling.

True. If she looses her looks she will have nothing left.

She will still have her money.

[gemini81]

And the yellow farangs start to dream again.

How many times have you declared victory now?

Its written on the walls; even in braille. Its a process, and a process in progress. The biggest certainty lies not in what others are doing in opposition- but the sheer incompetence of PTP, namely the Yingluk herself and complete ineptitude. We all know she isn't capable of so much as managing an ant farm.

[lostinsurin]

And the yellow farangs start to dream again.

How many times have you declared victory now?

Patience. You'll see.

Post 555

talk about coincidence!

[lostinsurin]

And the yellow farangs start to dream again.

How many times have you declared victory now?

Its written on the walls; even in braille. Its a process, and a process in progress. The biggest certainty lies not in what others are doing in opposition- but the sheer incompetence of PTP, namely the Yingluk herself and complete ineptitude. We all know she isn't capable of so much as managing an ant farm.

Whereas you are?

You speak as though you know the woman personally but I sense it's more a case of what your mates have told you,

or you read The Nation.

[pkspeaker]

The key-point here is the 'reform before election' crowd cannot prevent a new elected government from taking power for more than a couple months, and any such 'appointed' person is in-inherently another 'care-taker' PM, and will be forced to issue a new poll even if the previous one is nullified.

No-one is talking about nullifying the current constitution. If the rice corruption charge removes Yingluck then Charlem or some other PhuaThai MP will be the new PM, until one with full powers is elected and soon.

Any attempt to install a non PT 'appointedPM' for more than a month or so will bring about a massive red shirt backlash, the article seems to suggest that the 'army has checkpoints ringing bangkok' so there fore the red-shirts are helpless to rebel-this is absolute non-sense, the UDD can bring about 100,000s to take over bangkok anytime they want, any 'appointed' douchbag of a PM will be forced to abdicate to an elected parliament as soon as they start their uprising.. they will have international support, Abhist had 2 more years left in his 'appointed' PM capacity and was forced to call early elections.

The compromise position for the PAD/PDRC should be to end their protests as soon as Yingluck is forced to step-down in favor of another PT PM. but the protesters will have to accept a PT lead government for the next few years..

Edited March 10, 2014 by pkspeaker

[PepperMe]

And the yellow farangs start to dream again.

How many times have you declared victory now?

You certainly are 'lost in Surin'... with your thought process, you surely are 'lost'.

Changing the country by toppling the PM and her sad act of a government is not an overnight thing, but is a strict sequence.

Of course you need to constantly assure the country and your supporters that victory is near, because you have to keep them pumped up. What do you want?... tell them to hang around the streets, this will take approx 5 or 6 months? Don't be stupid.

But however long it has taken, this is deffo the 'end game' in full swing and will take an absolute Houdini style trick to wriggle free of this.

The government you so blindly support are only clinging to power because they need to keep the eyes away from the books and need time to destroy evidence of embezzlement of state funds on a scale that would make the devil blush.

Look at the Thaksin appointed 'speaker of the house' that was firmly in the pocket of the PTP, who had his finances examined as he was 'outgoing' due to house dissolution.. In 2 years he went from 1.4 Million in bank, a car, a house and a tractor... to around 200 million incoming and that is only what we know about, I bet that is not even the half of it if you could see what he has squirreled abroad and in others' names.

That is only the house speaker..... Imagine the whole PTP crowd and what they have gained.

Is it any wonder they are so desperate to cling to power?.. Once all these are gone and the assessments are made of their cumulative finances, I think you are going to see tens of billions that can not be accounted for, and that will just be the tip of it all.

I can safely see the entire cabinet and a good handful of PTP MPs having to flee Thailand.

How do you think such a mass exodus will reflect on the red shirt appointed governments of Thailand?

Corruption although always existed has been pushed to a galactic level. This could be in the region of hundreds of billions of baht..

That is NOT acceptable.

Edited March 10, 2014 by PepperMe

[BlueNoseCodger]

The Court won't rule that Yingluk violated the Constitution over the 30 day rule, because the Electoral Commission caused that.

Nobody will ban a PM over a transfer of a civil servant, silly noise claims.

The 'negligence' due to corruption claim doesn't work when you haven't got convictions for the corruption you claim.

This is more PDRC dreaming.

The idea that the court will go out on a line and create a power vacuum for this little faction to fill is pathetic.

[gemini81]

And the yellow farangs start to dream again.

How many times have you declared victory now?

Its written on the walls; even in braille. Its a process, and a process in progress. The biggest certainty lies not in what others are doing in opposition- but the sheer incompetence of PTP, namely the Yingluk herself and complete ineptitude. We all know she isn't capable of so much as managing an ant farm.

Whereas you are?

You speak as though you know the woman personally but I sense it's more a case of what your mates have told you,

or you read The Nation.

Much further inside on what's going on than those lost in the rice paddies of Surin. But, as I said, you can be a country bumpkin or even reside in a cave most of the day, but PTP is destined to fail massively-its obvious if you READ THE ARTICLE for starters.

You know it, I know it, but you can instead try to troll about this publication or that to deflect the topic.

Actually I like to compare the Thai newspapers to one another, but mostly hear from gov't officials and people I know about what is going on. Who do you get your wealth of info from out there in the paddies and the red villages of Surin?