No sign of early ballot: Thai analysis

[webfact]

NATION ANALYSIS
No sign of early ballot
The Nation

Activists from the Student Federation of Thailand cover the Democracy Monument with a large piece of black cloth to protest against the court ruling to nullify the February 2 election.

Court voids Feb 2 poll; concerns if new govt not in place by August

BANGKOK: -- Yesterday's ruling by the Constitutional Court that annulled the February 2 general election has answered questions about the legality of the problem-plagued poll - but it has also raised new questions about when the next election will be held and whether the political stalemate can be resolved.

Election Commission (EC) chairman Supachai Somcharoen said he expected it would be at least three more months before a new election could be held. He said the election commissioners would convene a special meeting on Monday to discuss what to do next.

The court's judges voted 6-3 to void the election on the grounds that voting was not held for the entire country on the same day, which is a violation of the Constitution.

The judges advised the EC and the government to discuss issuing a Royal Decree to call for a new election. But the court said the EC should set the election date by referring to a previous Constitutional Court ruling in 2006 that also annulled a general election in that year.

In 2006, the court ruled on May 8 that the election was unconstitutional and a new round of voting was scheduled for October 15 - more than five months later.

The caretaker government has made it clear it does not want to wait as long as five months for a new vote. Sources from the ruling Pheu Thai Party said the time frame in which an election should be held was 45 to 60 days after dissolution of the House of Representatives. That means the party wants a new election to be held by no later than May 21.

But the EC is unlikely to agree to another snap election while the political situation remains volatile. Before the previous election on February 2, the commission suggested that the government postpone the voting in the face of worsening protests and confrontation. But the government ignored it, and the result was an incomplete election.

In the election, which was boycotted by the main opposition Democrat Party, voting did not take place in 28 constituencies where candidate registration was blocked by anti-government protesters, who also forced closure of about 10 per cent of polling stations.

With the court ruling and a possible repeat of problems seen on February 2, the EC will have a larger say than the government in deciding the next election date.

There is also great mistrust between the two major parties. The opposition accuses the government of attempting to retain the status quo - in which the ruling party has influence over the bureaucracy and local administrative agencies - that allows it to win an election.

The anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) has also threatened to disrupt the election again unless there is national reform before the poll.

The Democrat Party is also unlikely to join the new election if the current government remains as a caretaker administration, according to a senior party figure.

"The best way out is for Yingluck Shinawatra to resign as prime minister, to pave the way for a non-elected or neutral person to head the government and take care of the election," the source said.

The ruling party, meanwhile, has said there was a "conspiracy" against it regaining power. Key party figure Chaturon Chaisang, who is also education minister, suspected there was an attempt to get rid of the government to create a political vacuum. He said yesterday he did not expect a new election any time soon.

Legal expert Verapat Pariyawong said the verdict may lead to talks between the caretaker government and the PDRC. The latter may ask the government to stand down and Yingluck to not run in the next election in return for it not disrupting the poll. But he did not think Pheu Thai and Yingluck supporters would agree to such a deal, so the political crisis would continue.

Academic Komsarn Pokong said he did not think a new poll would be held soon as the political conflict remained tense. He called on the government to admit its mistakes and wrongdoing in order to ease the tension.

"By speeding up calls for a new election, the government will only be declaring war with its rivals. Now it seems that both sides don't want to retreat and they don't want to appear to follow the other's demands," he said.

But the private sector was optimistic yesterday that the ruling to nullify the poll would lead to a new government eventually.

Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's Economic Forecasting Centre, said the Constitutional Court's nullification of the election was a positive signal that a new election could be held by the third quarter.

"Thailand should be able to get a new government by the third quarter after the new election. The Thai economy, thus, should grow by 2-3 per cent," he said.

Sumeth Laomoraphorn, chief executive officer of CP Intertrade, one of the country's major rice exporters, said the private sector had high expectations that Thailand would be able to have a new election soon so that a fully authorised government could be put in place to administer the country.

He said that during the long wait for a new government, the private sector had to suspend investment and expansion plans.

"The caretaker government currently lacks full authority to manage rice stocks, but has only been able to accelerate rice sales, which caused a drop in the rice price in the world market. Under a new government, rice policy should be well managed," Sumeth said.

Recently, many local research houses downgraded forecasts for Thai GDP growth this year to below 3 per cent, mainly because of the slowdown in tourism, consumption and investment that has resulted from the prolonged political deadlock. Some predicted that if a new government cannot be formed by the third quarter to implement the 2015 fiscal budget, starting from October, Thai gross domestic product may contract dramatically.

Fitch issued a warning to Thailand recently that it might reassess the country's credit-rating outlook, if there was no full government in place to implement a fiscal 2015 budget by August.

Previously, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industries, and Banking said the political strife had cost the country as much as Bt120 billion in lost opportunities.


-- The Nation 2014-03-22

[Thai at Heart]

So now the EC just randomly picks election dates down to the apparent feeling of the situation?

Lordy lord. This country is finished. Just get on with it and have a coup, because we have democrats who don't want democracy and an election commission who don't want elections.

Is there anything that isn't ass backwards in Thailand?

[chainarong]

The EC is correct, what is the PTP agenda, holding snap elections, even parliamentary voting is done without due diligence , August onwards ,this gives everyone time to hammer home how great you have been and how great you are going to be, unfortunately some have burnt their bridges and some are full of BS, the people will decide and lets make change at the ballot box ,like in a democracy , instead of on the streets, like unrepresentative rabble.

[millwall_fan]

So the EC have annulled the elections because their friends in the PDRC disrupted it. They are all part of of the same political force, determined to wrest power from the people and return it to themselves. So now there must be another election and this time the army must allow the police to ensure that the will of the people is manifest on the same day at the same hour - only resorting to violence if any protesters use violence - and violence must be deemed to mean any attempt to physically prevent the registration of candidates, distribution of ballot materials or ability of people to vote. Then the government that the people choose to elect must decide what reforms need to take place. I suggest they start with reforming the judiciary, then the army, then revert the constitution back to the 1999 version.

[Fryslan boppe]

Misrepresentation all over the place....Let me count the ways:

"whether the political stalemate can be resolved.......while the political situation remains volatile"

Coup-mongering does not a 'political stalemate" make. The term 'stalemate' implies forces of equal strength being unable to assert themselves......That is definitely not the case here....In spite of their "independent Agency tools", the coup-mongers and their shadowy supporters are a minority in every sense of the word.

Coup-mongers will not be satisfied short of a coup....It is the nature of the beast....This quote seems to suggest some sort of resolution short of electoral and parliamentary processes.........Not gonna happen.

It is the beauty of elections. To objectively count the difference between a majority and otherwise, and to base governance on that standard.

".....as the political conflict remained tense. He called on the government to admit its mistakes and wrongdoing in order to ease the tension"

Wow, espousing coup-mongering mantra's....As if their attempt at seizing power via their only avenue being non-electoral, is somehow based on Govt. "mistakes and wrongdoing"

There must have been a lot of Govt. mistakes and wrongdoings presaging all those historical coup's in Thailand.

This kind of stuff is not only misleading, but a slam against one's intelligence.

Edited March 22, 2014 by Fryslan boppe

[dutchisaan]

Misrepresentation all over the place....Let me count the ways:

"whether the political stalemate can be resolved.......while the political situation remains volatile"

Coup-mongering does not a 'political stalemate" make. The term 'stalemate' implies forces of equal strength being unable to assert themselves......That is definitely not the case here....In spite of their "independent Agency tools", the coup-mongers and their shadowy supporters are a minority in every sense of the word.

Coup-mongers will not be satisfied short of a coup....It is the nature of the beast....This quote seems to suggest some sort of resolution short of electoral and parliamentary processes.........Not gonna happen.

It is the beauty of elections. To objectively count the difference between a majority and otherwise, and to base governance on that standard.

".....as the political conflict remained tense. He called on the government to admit its mistakes and wrongdoing in order to ease the tension"

Wow, espousing coup-mongering mantra's....As if their attempt at seizing power via their only avenue being non-electoral, is somehow based on Govt. "mistakes and wrongdoing"

There must have been a lot of Govt. mistakes and wrongdoings presaging all those historical coup's in Thailand.

This kind of stuff is not only misleading, but a slam against one's intelligence.

Are you saying that the ptp did not make mistakes and did not do anything wrong? Why can you not understand that people are getting sick of a goverment who does not take care about there people and the country, but only to take care of themself. Just keep defending your master!

And btw, how come we did not hear from Yingluck so far? I am sure you can defend her on this to.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[pkspeaker]

'due diligence'?! <deleted> difference does it make 'what election' you have here, the PT is going to win another landslide, the reason the demofacist party refuses to run is because if they do run, the number of votes they manage to get is pathetic, the PT will win any election in the next 5 years at least, even with the rice problems that the amata manufactured.

If it were a close election and the democrats hadn't intentionally sabotaged the election then I could understand the Constitutions courts ruling, but its obvious that the constitution court, the nacc, are tools for the former facsist that used to run this country when it was a military dictatorship, the people that are hell bent on bringing military dictatorship back.

The EC is correct, what is the PTP agenda, holding snap elections, even parliamentary voting is done without due diligence , August onwards ,this gives everyone time to hammer home how great you have been and how great you are going to be, unfortunately some have burnt their bridges and some are full of BS, the people will decide and lets make change at the ballot box ,like in a democracy , instead of on the streets, like unrepresentative rabble.

[crazykopite]

The country is in turmoil and it will only get worse and the only people who will suffer are the normal hard working people of Thailand the wealthy will continue to sit in there mansions looking down and laughing at those who are suffering

[rickirs]

With every new elections comes Suthep's "Final Push." Something needs to be done to break this moronic chain of events to return Thailand back to the people, and I'm not talking about Suthep's People's Committee.

[Thai at Heart]

Misrepresentation all over the place....Let me count the ways:

"whether the political stalemate can be resolved.......while the political situation remains volatile"

Coup-mongering does not a 'political stalemate" make. The term 'stalemate' implies forces of equal strength being unable to assert themselves......That is definitely not the case here....In spite of their "independent Agency tools", the coup-mongers and their shadowy supporters are a minority in every sense of the word.

Coup-mongers will not be satisfied short of a coup....It is the nature of the beast....This quote seems to suggest some sort of resolution short of electoral and parliamentary processes.........Not gonna happen.

It is the beauty of elections. To objectively count the difference between a majority and otherwise, and to base governance on that standard.

".....as the political conflict remained tense. He called on the government to admit its mistakes and wrongdoing in order to ease the tension"

Wow, espousing coup-mongering mantra's....As if their attempt at seizing power via their only avenue being non-electoral, is somehow based on Govt. "mistakes and wrongdoing"

There must have been a lot of Govt. mistakes and wrongdoings presaging all those historical coup's in Thailand.

This kind of stuff is not only misleading, but a slam against one's intelligence.

Are you saying that the ptp did not make mistakes and did not do anything wrong? Why can you not understand that people are getting sick of a goverment who does not take care about there people and the country, but only to take care of themself. Just keep defending your master!

And btw, how come we did not hear from Yingluck so far? I am sure you can defend her on this to.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

THEN VOTE THEM OUT

[Scamper]

The Constitutional Court ruling didn't just nullify the election. It encouraged Pheu Thai to abide by the EC's suggestions. The problem is - as it was the last time the Constitutional Court tried to get Pheu Thai to listen to the EC, they didn't. In fact, the EC had great difficulty even meeting with them directly. It seems nothing has changed. Already the EC has tried to open a dialogue with Pheu Thai - through facebook. And as before, Pheu Thai is as unlikely to listen to the EC as they were before - regardless as to their constitutional role, which Pheu Thai doesn't recognize anyway. One point that comes through in this article that is spot on - all the political participants in this drama have blocked themselves in by the uncompromising nature of their rhetoric. None have left a space for compromise. And that is why we have a Mexican standoff. They have shored up their base with this rhetoric, but have inadvertently created a wedge between themselves and their opponents, a wedge that can't be bridged.

[Thai at Heart]

The Constitutional Court ruling didn't just nullify the election. It encouraged Pheu Thai to abide by the EC's suggestions. The problem is - as it was the last time the Constitutional Court tried to get Pheu Thai to listen to the EC, they didn't. In fact, the EC had great difficulty even meeting with them directly. It seems nothing has changed. Already the EC has tried to open a dialogue with Pheu Thai - through facebook. And as before, Pheu Thai is as unlikely to listen to the EC as they were before - regardless as to their constitutional role, which Pheu Thai doesn't recognize anyway. One point that comes through in this article that is spot on - all the political participants in this drama have blocked themselves in by the uncompromising nature of their rhetoric. None have left a space for compromise. And that is why we have a Mexican standoff. They have shored up their base with this rhetoric, but have inadvertently created a wedge between themselves and their opponents, a wedge that can't be bridged.

Who has a constitutional obligation to carry out the election? This is not a debatable or negotiable event. It is not to.be put off, delayed or discussed while you do your makeup.

The EC HAS TO carry.out the election. This is not an important, or a serious issue, this is an issue of constitutional obligation. This is up there with serving your country dutifully. This is what makes people go over the top of in the trenches.

To not carry out your constitutional obligation is to show utter disdain for your country and your countrymen. The EC has become the perfect example of what is wrong with Thailand.

Soldier go and perform your duty.

"f*** off, kee giiat maak".

[h90]

So the EC have annulled the elections because their friends in the PDRC disrupted it. They are all part of of the same political force, determined to wrest power from the people and return it to themselves. So now there must be another election and this time the army must allow the police to ensure that the will of the people is manifest on the same day at the same hour - only resorting to violence if any protesters use violence - and violence must be deemed to mean any attempt to physically prevent the registration of candidates, distribution of ballot materials or ability of people to vote. Then the government that the people choose to elect must decide what reforms need to take place. I suggest they start with reforming the judiciary, then the army, then revert the constitution back to the 1999 version.

Wrest power from the Shinawatra clan, not from the people....Or when should have been the raw moment when the people of Thailand had any power?

[manstr23]

Misrepresentation all over the place....Let me count the ways:

"whether the political stalemate can be resolved.......while the political situation remains volatile"

Coup-mongering does not a 'political stalemate" make. The term 'stalemate' implies forces of equal strength being unable to assert themselves......That is definitely not the case here....In spite of their "independent Agency tools", the coup-mongers and their shadowy supporters are a minority in every sense of the word.

Coup-mongers will not be satisfied short of a coup....It is the nature of the beast....This quote seems to suggest some sort of resolution short of electoral and parliamentary processes.........Not gonna happen.

It is the beauty of elections. To objectively count the difference between a majority and otherwise, and to base governance on that standard.

".....as the political conflict remained tense. He called on the government to admit its mistakes and wrongdoing in order to ease the tension"

Wow, espousing coup-mongering mantra's....As if their attempt at seizing power via their only avenue being non-electoral, is somehow based on Govt. "mistakes and wrongdoing"

There must have been a lot of Govt. mistakes and wrongdoings presaging all those historical coup's in Thailand.

This kind of stuff is not only misleading, but a slam against one's intelligence.

It is the same drivel in every post from you - the elite - the coup mongers - fascists and so on. Why not tell everyone on this board why that is all you ever rile against, tell them that you are a paid poster - paid by the criminal in Dubai. Anyone can see that this administration has been a failure for the people of Thailand.

[millwall_fan]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

So the EC have annulled the elections because their friends in the PDRC disrupted it. They are all part of of the same political force, determined to wrest power from the people and return it to themselves. So now there must be another election and this time the army must allow the police to ensure that the will of the people is manifest on the same day at the same hour - only resorting to violence if any protesters use violence - and violence must be deemed to mean any attempt to physically prevent the registration of candidates, distribution of ballot materials or ability of people to vote. Then the government that the people choose to elect must decide what reforms need to take place. I suggest they start with reforming the judiciary, then the army, then revert the constitution back to the 1999 version.

Wrest power from the Shinawatra clan, not from the people....Or when should have been the raw moment when the people of Thailand had any power?

you've been reading The Nation too much.

The Thai people have benefitted hugely from the governments led by the Shinawatras: OK, I grant you the Shins have also done pretty well out of being in power. As did every preceding government.

No government prior to the Shins did anything for the poor, downtrodden masses. Now they have a decent health scheme, a fair minimum wage, OTOP, and a rice scheme that, flawed as it is, has led to a massive redistribution of wealth from the bloated Bangkok elite to the impoverished Isaan - where the economy is booming as never before.

[Gweiloman]

Misrepresentation all over the place....Let me count the ways:

"whether the political stalemate can be resolved.......while the political situation remains volatile"

Coup-mongering does not a 'political stalemate" make. The term 'stalemate' implies forces of equal strength being unable to assert themselves......That is definitely not the case here....In spite of their "independent Agency tools", the coup-mongers and their shadowy supporters are a minority in every sense of the word.

Coup-mongers will not be satisfied short of a coup....It is the nature of the beast....This quote seems to suggest some sort of resolution short of electoral and parliamentary processes.........Not gonna happen.

It is the beauty of elections. To objectively count the difference between a majority and otherwise, and to base governance on that standard.

".....as the political conflict remained tense. He called on the government to admit its mistakes and wrongdoing in order to ease the tension"

Wow, espousing coup-mongering mantra's....As if their attempt at seizing power via their only avenue being non-electoral, is somehow based on Govt. "mistakes and wrongdoing"

There must have been a lot of Govt. mistakes and wrongdoings presaging all those historical coup's in Thailand.

This kind of stuff is not only misleading, but a slam against one's intelligence.

It is the same drivel in every post from you - the elite - the coup mongers - fascists and so on. Why not tell everyone on this board why that is all you ever rile against, tell them that you are a paid poster - paid by the criminal in Dubai. Anyone can see that this administration has been a failure for the people of Thailand.

"Anyone can see that this administration has been a failure for the people of Thailand"

Over exaggeration don't you think? I think the people have done very nicely the past 10 years or so. I see lots of people in many Isaan villages prospering, getting more affluent. I see low unemployment. I see the BTS being extended to many more places, easing the travel situation for lots and raising their property prices in the process.

That is not to say that they have not done badly is some other areas, most notably the rice scheme. All governments make mistakes. It's at the ballot box where the people voice their satisfaction or dissatisfaction of the government's performance.

As to your point about paid posters - are you so naive and ignorant to think that any Thai politician would bother to pay anyone to post on a largely farang forum?

[Thai at Heart]

Misrepresentation all over the place....Let me count the ways:

"whether the political stalemate can be resolved.......while the political situation remains volatile"

Coup-mongering does not a 'political stalemate" make. The term 'stalemate' implies forces of equal strength being unable to assert themselves......That is definitely not the case here....In spite of their "independent Agency tools", the coup-mongers and their shadowy supporters are a minority in every sense of the word.

Coup-mongers will not be satisfied short of a coup....It is the nature of the beast....This quote seems to suggest some sort of resolution short of electoral and parliamentary processes.........Not gonna happen.

It is the beauty of elections. To objectively count the difference between a majority and otherwise, and to base governance on that standard.

".....as the political conflict remained tense. He called on the government to admit its mistakes and wrongdoing in order to ease the tension"

Wow, espousing coup-mongering mantra's....As if their attempt at seizing power via their only avenue being non-electoral, is somehow based on Govt. "mistakes and wrongdoing"

There must have been a lot of Govt. mistakes and wrongdoings presaging all those historical coup's in Thailand.

This kind of stuff is not only misleading, but a slam against one's intelligence.

It is the same drivel in every post from you - the elite - the coup mongers - fascists and so on. Why not tell everyone on this board why that is all you ever rile against, tell them that you are a paid poster - paid by the criminal in Dubai. Anyone can see that this administration has been a failure for the people of Thailand.

Now, if ever there was opinin as fact this is it.

Any stats to prove thst " anyone can see that this government has been a failure for the people of Thailand".

By who's measure? What measure?

[The Deerhunter]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

So the EC have annulled the elections because their friends in the PDRC disrupted it. They are all part of of the same political force, determined to wrest power from the people and return it to themselves. So now there must be another election and this time the army must allow the police to ensure that the will of the people is manifest on the same day at the same hour - only resorting to violence if any protesters use violence - and violence must be deemed to mean any attempt to physically prevent the registration of candidates, distribution of ballot materials or ability of people to vote. Then the government that the people choose to elect must decide what reforms need to take place. I suggest they start with reforming the judiciary, then the army, then revert the constitution back to the 1999 version.

Wrest power from the Shinawatra clan, not from the people....Or when should have been the raw moment when the people of Thailand had any power?

you've been reading The Nation too much.

The Thai people have benefitted hugely from the governments led by the Shinawatras: OK, I grant you the Shins have also done pretty well out of being in power. As did every preceding government.

No government prior to the Shins did anything for the poor, downtrodden masses. Now they have a decent health scheme, a fair minimum wage, OTOP, and a rice scheme that, flawed as it is, has led to a massive redistribution of wealth from the bloated Bangkok elite to the impoverished Isaan - where the economy is booming as never before.

And an even BIGGER redistribution of wealth to the Shin clan whose net wealth has skyrocketed in the last several years, mostly under the current PM (+caretaker PM) This at the expence of most of Thailand who see your favourite regions as being paid off for votes, supervised by village headmen, in favour of PTP.

[thepool]

It amazes me that people who are not citizens of Thailand and therefore have no vote should express such extreme and , in many cases partisan views!

Western democracies have evolved over 100's of years and have developed as a result of major civil wars, world wars ect.

One major "democracy" practices " pork barrel" politics which is a euphemism for major, ingrained, habitual corruption !