Thailand becomes 'Sick Man of Southeast Asia'

[JAG]

How bloody sad is that story? Six months ago this country was the envy of most of the region and now? Yes I know the "man from Dubai" chanters will try and say the rice deal was the turning point but the simple fact is Thailand would have moved past that. What's destroying this country is the rogue Suthep, his puppetmasters (who all have their millions offshore anyway - this is about power not money) and those who are dim enough to support him. PDRC flagwavers can - each and every one - say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand".

Yes, but look on the bright side, if Suthep and his merry men get their way, Thaksins passport will be cancelled!

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[gabruce]

How bloody sad is that story? Six months ago this country was the envy of most of the region and now? Yes I know the "man from Dubai" chanters will try and say the rice deal was the turning point but the simple fact is Thailand would have moved past that. What's destroying this country is the rogue Suthep, his puppetmasters (who all have their millions offshore anyway - this is about power not money) and those who are dim enough to support him. PDRC flagwavers can - each and every one - say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand".

I'm not convinced that Thailand's woes are mostly due to the PDRC protests. I think that the bulk of the problems stems from "Rice Gate". Too much money was lost, too much debt, too much corruption there. The rice industry is probably set back a decade. Certainly the current unrest is a problem, just as the unrest in 2008, 2010 was a problem. Until peace comes, it will still be a problem. One can just as easily say those who are dim enough to support the man from Dubai and a fascist government, can each and everyone say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand". By the way, Thailand won't be destroyed, just injured.

[MunterHunter]

I was just doing a financial work up on opening a processing facility for our Co in Cambodia, the shock caused me to look at Thailand again; to land and clear a 20 ft container at Sihanoukville costs $1,200.00 approx MORE, than to land & clear the same 20 ft container at Laem Chabang - the main Port between Bangkok & Pattaya.

The add on document costs are ludicrous $350.00 USD each box for Customs Clearance, the same $350.00 for Tax Evaluation at the same Customs House - a $15.00 Customs processing fee for each box, a surcharge of $300.00 for each box; it goes on & on.

I remain amazed at how focused some folks can get in times of opportunity !

Needless to say, my work in Cambodia is done - back to Thailand, and the deals being offered by the Thai Govt Investment Board are excellent - very professional response - Chalk & Cheese.

As long as your happy to pay the back-handers to the Thai Customs division, then go for it! Very little leaves the Customs depot without some money changing hands under the table, i know this from friends who import stuff for their business and my own attempts to import stuff for myself.

On paper, Thailand might be cheaper, in reality it might not be so clear-cut... If you havent already factored this into your analysis, i'd suggest looking again my friend.

[wandasloan]

If Thailand is the sick man of SE Asia then Cambodia, where I live, is officially dead

Why? Cambodia has robust economic growth, relatively few political problems (at least of the type that Thailand is suffering

If it is all about economy growth, then the US and most of Europe are the sick men of the world. Pretty well all of them have growth well under Thailand.

The above "sick man" story, and your spin of it, and the red-shirt spins of it all prove only that it is easy to use statistics for any end you choose. We all know that Thailand is losing momentum and has lost a lot of opportunity over recent months. We all know it's certainly not sick. There's not an international bank, agency or ratings firm that hints at such a thing.

It's a half-empty half-full argument. Your take that Cambodia is healthy is laughable *IF* you go to Cambodia and look around at the massive, extreme poverty of most people. Your take that Cambodia is healthy because it seems headed in the right direction, economically, could be right. Your take that Cambodia is healthy overall is silly so long as the dictatorship is in place. And so on.

You can use the statistics for any conclusion you want. It's why everyone loves statistics so very much.

.

[Cricketnut]

If Thailand is the sick man of SE Asia then Cambodia, where I live, is officially dead

I think with only one public listed company on the stock exchange you are correct!

[sabaii69]

An economic indicator is the cost of rotisserie chickens on Siam Country Club Rd. They go up B10 every week. They're NOT flying off the shelf.

[The Deerhunter]

'Thailand becomes 'Sick Man of Southeast Asia'

Look who the head nurse and head doctor are.

look who started the protest and then lied to the entire country and has killed 90 + people with his thugs.

You obviously mean Thaiksin.

[AlphMichaels]

Oh my! When did this happen?

[elzach]

Businesses, especially the multinationals described here, don't pack up and move because of politics or even political turmoil. Plus they take years to assess the situation, not months. It took businesses 3 years to decide to start moving out of China, for example.

The key determinants are:

* currency valuation

* labor costs

* taxes

Thailand is not doing bad on all three fronts, it's just that it has to compete with many qualified neighbors.

[cdmtdm]

the flow of foreign capital will determine the future of this country , right now the tap is being turned off , we have a ship with no captain and its surrounded by pirates !!

[tezzainoz]

How bloody sad is that story? Six months ago this country was the envy of most of the region and now? Yes I know the "man from Dubai" chanters will try and say the rice deal was the turning point but the simple fact is Thailand would have moved past that. What's destroying this country is the rogue Suthep, his puppetmasters (who all have their millions offshore anyway - this is about power not money) and those who are dim enough to support him. PDRC flagwavers can - each and every one - say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand".

The Fact is if you blame the Yingluck line ot the Suthep line

If you go back just 6 months it all come back to 1 man

Thaksin

2 years ago many TV Members said

Thaskin wants back what he deserves or he will destroy Thailand for revenge

It is sad now all we can say is

They Where Right

[tezzainoz]

Good Luck Yingluck, keep going, they are in the wrong! Only one way ahead "one man one vote"

Nice to know your right behind Thais having to suffer so she can keep her money and the corrupt books away for the people

[RedRoadRunner]

'Thailand becomes 'Sick Man of Southeast Asia'

Look who the head nurse and head doctor are.

Sad to say, it's the people who (s)elect the doctors and nurses…..and as long as the Thais themselves don;t know what they want any SD can take power in this country…...

[The Deerhunter]

As a generalisation I support what Suthep is trying to do. I have problems over the vote/election thing but if the system is so crooked it needs to be fixed before having another election, but how this will be done in practice, I do not know.

Yes, Thaiksin's original genuis was actually keeping promises to the people of the north, to win this undying support he undeservingly enjoys. But they have to take ownership for their outrageous violent out-of-control take on politics & democracy makes them anathema to any thinking person except those who are "on-the-take ' at some level or other and a few incomprehensible TVF posters who champion the man from Dubai no matter what. When a political party senior member (organuizational or elected) says what some of the things that have been said recently thy should be disciplined by their bosses or electorate instantly and severely. But no-one does anything. The drunken mouthings of a senior govt politician and the celebration of the deaths of children from bombs by political activists afre beyond belief.

But, how to change the mindset of a nation bent on self destruction. Fatalism (driving drunk at high speeds in unserviceable vehicles without helmets or seat belts.)

Dangerous belief in superstitions of various types.

Selfishness and arrogance unbelievable proportions. Just watch how they pass on highways & cheat each other left, right & centre.

My wife never takes anything of value to a temple as people try to steal everything.

Schooling!!!! This one blows my mind. Parents of all social levels all over Thailand expect their children to pass and move up every year. They lobby the school if some stupid farang teacher wont "pass" their brat who either does not attend or does no work or both. (no, I have never been a teacher). They will lose FACE if their kid gets kept back a year and they will NOT lose face for any reason. It cannopt happen.

The level of violence and larceny practiced on Thai people by Thai people is epic, in comparison to what they do to farangs.

The murder rates, road death rates and deaths at the hands of the authorities in various forms is 4-5 times at least per/cap to what most Farangs know to be in their home country.

Complicity in people trafficking, drugs etc and lack of concern for the less fortunate in their own society seems way out of whack with the caring Buddhist ethic. My wife rationalizes it that there are not enough "good Thais & too many "bad" Thais.

So PTP and UDD are unacceptable to me. Too crazy, too violent too bad. The Dems might have turned over a new leaf under Abhisit, but the will still be some greedy old guard there trying to get to the trough again. Suthep seems to me to be on the right track but with some few reservations.

What is the weak link? The Thai people themselves.

[Blackmirage2013]

Speaking of sick men... I notice that a lot of advertisments on ThaiVisa are for dating young Thai women and health insurance....

Just goes to show where most of the members here focus their interest: hunting young Thai women and making sure they stay healthy after ingesting three Viagra pills a day with a case of Heineken!!!

[nong38]

Politics is the art of governing and we hope for the people of Thailandso that their lives might be improved, sadly it seems that most of the people involved and almost all who rise to the top seem to be looking after themselves first and the country second. This sad because with all its faults and different ways of doing things it still has a massive potential, but how long will the people, foreign investors and the like wait for the penny to drop and things to change?

Asean is now just around the corner and to the other members what does it look like? Well you decide and think how they will all take advantage of the situation and Thailand will not even notice what has happened until its to late.

Life in Thailand goes on, tomorrow is another day just like yesterday, everything is normal isnt it, well is it?

Discuss.

[JAG]

Speaking of sick men... I notice that a lot of advertisments on ThaiVisa are for dating young Thai women and health insurance....

Just goes to show where most of the members here focus their interest: hunting young Thai women and making sure they stay healthy after ingesting three Viagra pills a day with a case of Heineken!!!

Lightweights, mere lightweights!

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Edited March 26, 2014 by JAG

[Johpa]

Thailand will never move forward with threats of coups, riots and demonstrations every 18 months.

Thailand won't be able to move significantly forward as long as "profits" are moved offshore and not properly reinvested into the country. Thailand remains a colonial nation, exploited by a minority who extract the resources along with the profits. It can take the form of the Thaksin moving his massive capital gains offshore; it can take the form of much smaller movements of capital to open the thousands of Thai family owned restauants around the world; or, it can take the form of the CP group investing most of its profits elsewhere. And I am eagerly anticpating confirmation of a far more egregious example of extraction of capital. Meanwhile the political divisions are between rival gangs salivating at capturing the biggest piece of the pie. The majority of the Thais are anesthetized to their predicament by the same elites who feed them false information by controlling the media. And the neo-sahib ex-pat community is too preoccupied by protecting their real estate values, protecting their access to cheap booze and sex, and finding the best western food. Chaiyo!

[allan michaud]

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How bloody sad is that story? Six months ago this country was the envy of most of the region and now? Yes I know the "man from Dubai" chanters will try and say the rice deal was the turning point but the simple fact is Thailand would have moved past that. What's destroying this country is the rogue Suthep, his puppetmasters (who all have their millions offshore anyway - this is about power not money) and those who are dim enough to support him. PDRC flagwavers can - each and every one - say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand".

Seriously? So nothing to do with the sudden doubling of the minimum wage, which drove many Thai businesses to lay off staff and foreign businesses to look elsewhere. Nothing to do with the total incompetence of the govt in dealing with floods 2 years running. I am pretty damn sure a lot of foreign investors have had quite enough of the PTP bull$hit and simply don't want to take the risk of being flooded yet again. The rice issue is a very small part of the problem for most businesses, although Cambodia has now been swamped with Thai rice traders. This has very little to do with Suthep and Co, although they are not helping matters.

[chooka]

Thailand will never move forward with threats of coups, riots and demonstrations every 18 months.

Thailand won't be able to move significantly forward as long as "profits" are moved offshore and not properly reinvested into the country. Thailand remains a colonial nation, exploited by a minority who extract the resources along with the profits. It can take the form of the Thaksin moving his massive capital gains offshore; it can take the form of much smaller movements of capital to open the thousands of Thai family owned restauants around the world; or, it can take the form of the CP group investing most of its profits elsewhere. And I am eagerly anticpating confirmation of a far more egregious example of extraction of capital. Meanwhile the political divisions are between rival gangs salivating at capturing the biggest piece of the pie. The majority of the Thais are anesthetized to their predicament by the same elites who feed them false information by controlling the media. And the neo-sahib ex-pat community is too preoccupied by protecting their real estate values, protecting their access to cheap booze and sex, and finding the best western food. Chaiyo!

It was happening well before thaksin and will happen well after thaksin is gone. It is Thai culture. to say it only happened once thaksin come to power is ridiculous. Thais line up at the trough. Thaksin is just a phase and suthep will be feeding like a rotting pig very shortly

[VegasVic]

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How bloody sad is that story? Six months ago this country was the envy of most of the region and now? Yes I know the "man from Dubai" chanters will try and say the rice deal was the turning point but the simple fact is Thailand would have moved past that. What's destroying this country is the rogue Suthep, his puppetmasters (who all have their millions offshore anyway - this is about power not money) and those who are dim enough to support him. PDRC flagwavers can - each and every one - say proudly "I did my little bit to destroy Thailand".

Thailand has long been this way, it has succeeded in some respects despite itself not because of itself.

The thing that has happened in the last few months has stripped away the thin veneer that portrays what Thailand would like people to see, and revealed what it actually is.

Thad, There is a great deal of truth to what you posted here, however the economic downturn that Thailand is about to go through is directly related to this idiot suthep and his followers! Yingluck must take a much stronger stance and clean this mess up once and for all or else investor confidence in Thailand could take a long term hit. Burma is not yet an open society, Cambodia has many pitfalls for investors and Vietnam has become increasingly more expensive, so if Thailand gets its act together they could "run the tables", instead they are shooting themselves in the foot

[firestar]

There are 100's more lined for their chance to feed when the shins are gone and 100's behind them.

I know one who was feeding before and a good chance will be after at Lumpini park

[smileydude]

Thailand may be sick but the cancerous mole is clear as daylight and can be cured by surgical removal.

We just need a doctor in Dubai.

[digibum]

the big new player surely is myanmar. on all levels that is...

thailand lacks ambition, perseverance and dedication because it has been spoiled for many decades.

next 5 years will be crucial.

The spoiled observation couldn't be more correct. They've enjoyed such an advantaged position as one of the only countries anybody in the west would do business with in the region. Laos and Vietnam were communist. Cambodia was devastated. Burma was boycotted. And little old Thailand sat there and got fat and rich off the fact that there wasn't anybody else to do business with.

They have become spoiled. Unfortunately, I think we all have known someone spoiled who has suddenly been subjected to the real world and how this is likely to turn out for Thailand.

[digibum]

One can (and should) blame this or that party, but it all starts with the people I'm afraid. As funky as it can be when things gel, the mindset from top to bottom is FUBAR, now more so than ever. For it to stand a chance of being great, Prathet Thai needs a revolution/war/colonialism and three generations of thinking to draw out renowned people and garner some solid history.

While I don't like to think in terms of a revolution or some sort of bloody conflict, I don't think Thailand has a very bright future without someone new taking charge. Forget yellow and red. It has to be someone who actually has the best interests of Thailand at heart.

Sure, that means he'll probably be dealing with assassination attempts on a weekly basis but once you plant that seed, once people get a taste of what real change is like, they aren't likely to accept a change back to the endless cycle of bickering over who gets to rob the country blind.

[jimbeam1]

'Thailand becomes 'Sick Man of Southeast Asia'

Look who the head nurse and head doctor are.

You cannot blame the head nurse and doctor for the illness. The patient has to take responsibility for his lifestyle as it facilitated the illness.

Unfortunately, taking personal responsibility for any problem in Thailand is not part of the culture.

The patient is in delirium.

jb1.

[ikke]

One can (and should) blame this or that party, but it all starts with the people I'm afraid. As funky as it can be when things gel, the mindset from top to bottom is FUBAR, now more so than ever. For it to stand a chance of being great, Prathet Thai needs a revolution/war/colonialism and three generations of thinking to draw out renowned people and garner some solid history.

While I don't like to think in terms of a revolution or some sort of bloody conflict, I don't think Thailand has a very bright future without someone new taking charge. Forget yellow and red. It has to be someone who actually has the best interests of Thailand at heart.

Sure, that means he'll probably be dealing with assassination attempts on a weekly basis but once you plant that seed, once people get a taste of what real change is like, they aren't likely to accept a change back to the endless cycle of bickering over who gets to rob the country blind.

I don't know if you have any idea how an investor thinks, but ever since this Suthep started his moves, I putted all investments on hold, as i stated many times in comments.

Be sure I am not the only one, as most SME's think this way and are looking in surrounding countries to move production facilities.

[pmugghc]

the greedy elites dont care as they have so much wealth its immaterial to them ,they wont starve ,whereas everyone else will ,as the country redeems its banana state status

Don't insult the bananas!

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[digibum]

Businesses, especially the multinationals described here, don't pack up and move because of politics or even political turmoil. Plus they take years to assess the situation, not months. It took businesses 3 years to decide to start moving out of China, for example.

The key determinants are:

* currency valuation

* labor costs

* taxes

Thailand is not doing bad on all three fronts, it's just that it has to compete with many qualified neighbors.

It's not just that Thailand has to compete with many qualified neighbors. There were few viable options in the region previously.

Another factor that you failed to mention is political stability. It's a significant factor in how a foreign investor makes decisions because it has the chance to influence the other factors you mentioned.

Thailand's tax rates, labor costs, and currency valuation are all in jeopardy if the political issues don't get solved and you have a relatively stable political environment. You have to remember that most of the staple items in Thailand are subsidized in some form or another. Thai leaders were smart enough to know that if they kept bellies full, they could exploit the people a lot longer than allowing food, fuel, and other staple costs to drive people into the streets protesting.

But, even as you point out, Thailand is facing increased competition (something it has not faced in decades). Without strong leadership, they're ill prepared to meet competitive needs of the global market. As more money flows away from Thailand and towards her neighbors, the government has less money to provide services and to subsidize costs. If it passes the costs onto the people (removing subsidies), the people begin demanding higher wages in order to make up for the fact that the price of rice is now too expensive to feed their family. So there go your labor costs advantages which drives up inflation which destabilizes the currency. If they pass the costs onto businesses and the middle-class in the form of taxes, eventually the costs get passed onto the people and the same thing happens.

If Thailand was politically stable, first off, they would have a plan for weening the population off subsidies (BTW, this has been recommended to the Thai government by economists for years) by investing in programs that would increase domestic consumption and make Thailand less reliant on being a hub of relatively cheap skilled labor.

[digibum]

Vietnam certainly doesn't have higher labour costs than Thailand. What a ridiculous claim - Thailand is more developed than Vietnam, so logically wages in Thailand must be higher and of course they are - minimum wages are now 300 Baht a day for unskilled labour, whereas I remember skilled labourers were getting just 1.6 million dong or barely US$80 per month assembling machinery at a factory I used to work at in Khanh Hoa province of Vietnam during 2011-2012. Clearly then, Vietnamese wages are MUCH lower than Thai wages.

It is not only about the wages, Thai are also more lazy , and immigration is in Vietnam far more easy for business .

As an investor, I don't feel like I am welcome in Thailand anymore , this is a huge difference in surrounding countries !

I've never bought into this concept of laziness. I think if you look at any group of people who have been accused of being lazy, you'll see a common pattern of those people not having a lot of upward mobility in society. If working harder doesn't benefit you in any great way, why work harder? That's not laziness, that's a rational response to a given set of circumstances.

Look at the way every level of Thai society is structured. The rice farmer is always in debt because something like 20 families own 70% of all the farmable land in Thailand and thus make sure rent is just enough to make sure they never get ahead. No matter how high rice prices go, the rice brokers always seem to make all of the money while the farmer gets by season by season.

In business, jobs and opportunities go to those with family connections and those who slavishly follow the commands of a boss who may or may not have any idea what they're doing.

It also explains a lot about the Thai educational system. Intelligence is not a quality well rewarded in Thailand so why waste one's time acquiring it? If your path up is based on connections and kissing butts, why focus on anything other than making connections and kissing butts?

When you compare Thailand to other countries, also compare how high a someone like a rice farmer can advance himself by working hard in those countries. I think you'll find that there's a huge correlation between opportunity to move up (being rewarded for one's efforts) and one's level of enthusiasm for work.