All eyes on army as crisis peaks

[Lite Beer]

All eyes on army as crisis peaks

BANGKOK: Suthep Thaugsuban’s move on Friday to mobilise anti-government protesters across the city is aimed at reinforcing his message that the caretaker government is inept and lacks legitimacy following the political blows it received this week.

Mr Suthep is trying to win over support from the leaders of three institutions which he believes still wield legitimate power — the Supreme Court president, the Senate speaker, and the Election Commission (EC) chairman — to push through the appointment of an interim prime minister under Section 7 of the charter.

As far as government supporters are concerned he will not succeed. And no matter how the political situation turns out this weekend, the role of the military is central to the current impasse — for better or worse.

Capitalising on the Constitutional Court’s decision on Wednesday to remove Yingluck Shinawatra as caretaker prime minister for abuse of power over the Thawil Pliensri transfer, Mr Suthep brought forward the date of his latest “final all-out battle” against the government and the so-called “Thaksin regime”.

From their bases at Lumpini Park and Chaeng Watthana, People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) protesters fanned out across the city to seven locations — Government House, TV channels 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11, and the government’s Centre for the Administration of Peace and Order (Capo).

In “visiting” various television stations, Mr Suthep demanded that they broadcast live his nightly speeches and not air statements from Capo — a move which could boost his claims to legitimacy and buoy supporters to join the protests this weekend.

Capo, in response, issued a short statement urging the public not to join the protests as they risked legal action. The government has refused to engage or respond to Mr Suthep’s demand that acting caretaker PM Niwatthamrong Bunsongpaisal meet him to discuss the formation of a new interim government.

Mr Niwatthamrong’s only comment on Friday was that he hoped there would not be any violence.

At Government House, Mr Suthep was allowed to step into the grounds alone as the protesters massed outside the gates.

He called on the the Supreme Court president, the Senate speaker, who was elected last night, and the EC chairman to set up an “interim people’s government and legislative assembly” within the next few days.

These three individuals, he said, now represent the remaining legitimate pillars of power in this country and they should act to form an interim government within a few days.

If they do not the PDRC would do the job itself. He did not elaborate.

The role of the Senate speaker is crucial as he would be the one who nominates and countersigns a new prime minister for His Majesty the King’s endorsement.

The PDRC and its allies expressed satisfaction that Surachai Liangboonlertchai, the incumbent first deputy speaker and acting speaker, was elected the new Senate speaker last night.

The caretaker government had backed Pol Gen Jongrak Jutanont for the job.

The PDRC believes Sen Surachai will agree to the PDRC’s push for an interim PM through Section 7 of the constitution despite the fact that interpretation of the section is still disputed.

The law states: “Whenever no provision under this constitution is applicable to any case, it shall be decided in accordance with the constitutional practice in the democratic regime of government with the King as Head of State”.

It remains to be seen whether the Supreme Court president, the new Senate speaker, and the Election Commission chairman will agree to Mr Suthep's demands.

The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship says Mr Suthep’s Senate game plan will not succeed.

Red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan said that even if a new Senate leader is elected by its members, it requires royal endorsement. This means Mr Suthep’s plan cannot proceed.

The red shirts say Mr Suthep’s ultimate game plan is to instigate violent clashes that would give the military the excuse to stage a coup.

The fact that the PDRC has split up its protests across the city makes it susceptible to grenade attacks and shootings. Mr Jatuporn urged red-shirt supporters not to act independently but remain in their positions on full alert and to join their mass rally Saturday at Utthayan Road in Nakhon Pathom.

The red-shirt leadership also said that if there are attacks on anti-government protesters over the weekend, red shirts would not have a hand in them.

It warned the military the red shirts have a duty to protect democracy and would mobilise if there is a military coup.

As the political situation unfolds this weekend the role of the military remains crucial.

Since the start of his protests in October last year, leading up to the “Bangkok shutdown” and from then on the military has adopted a cautious stance.

It has preferred to have police lead crowd and protest control.

If for whatever reason violence breaks out and the government is unable to control the situation, the military will be forced to step in.

Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha, and his hand-picked right-hand man Maj Gen Apirat Kongsompong, commander of the 1st Division, King’s Guard, will be key decision-makers.


-- Phuket News 2014-05-10

[ClutchClark]

Is it really "peaking"?

Seems like there is still much room for escalation.

[The stuttering parrot]

Sutep has gone on long enough!

He himself is the only dictator on the scene and now more intimidation from him and his yellow rabble who are not looking for any common ground just stirring up violence and hoping for a coup d'état .

They would rather see blood than see a ballot box!

Get this thug of the streets now.

[ginjag]

Is it really "peaking"?

Seems like there is still much room for escalation.

If The army utilizes the sections along highway 2 and feeders then no red army armed will be trailing down to BKK, same goes for Highway 4 from the south.

This was not done before the last siege of BKK, because of a LAZY police force, so we may as well not have a police force and let the army control civilians----there would be less flaming road blocks for money--caring and protecting the public is a priority---less crime. Army courts to convict.

Everyone is grumbling about the corrupt police--the corrupt government--the only solution --REFORM FIRST--- BUT with a sound government to control then and only then give the caring to the army boys, I would trust an army road check more than a police one---just saying--my take on it.

Short term measure only till the police are sorted and scanned.

Edited May 10, 2014 by ginjag

[ginjag]

Sutep has gone on long enough!

He himself is the only dictator on the scene and now more intimidation from him and his yellow rabble who are not looking for any common ground just stirring up violence and hoping for a coup d'état .

They would rather see blood than see a ballot box!

Get this thug of the streets now.

The only dictator on the scene you said. stupid joke, Jutaporn--Chalerm and the rest, you lost your marbles ??? I partly agree with some of Sutheps approach, but it has sorted out a few of your saviours---PTP gang.

Ballot box YES YES after the total mess is cleared unless you want the mess to continue. GET all the dictators behind bars, do not be biased.

[jcb2001]

Speaking of road blocks along hwy 2, where are the Red Shirts? I thought they were suppose to have a demonstration in BKK today. It is now after 10AM and no sign of a red rally. Have the police stopped them at the road blocks as Ginjag suggest? Just wondering.

[NongKhaiKid]

Is it really "peaking"?

Seems like there is still much room for escalation.

If The army utilizes the sections along highway 2 and feeders then no red army armed will be trailing down to BKK, same goes for Highway 4 from the south.

This was not done before the last siege of BKK, because of a LAZY police force, so we may as well not have a police force and let the army control civilians----there would be less flaming road blocks for money--caring and protecting the public is a priority---less crime. Army courts to convict.

Everyone is grumbling about the corrupt police--the corrupt government--the only solution --REFORM FIRST--- BUT with a sound government to control then and only then give the caring to the army boys, I would trust an army road check more than a police one---just saying--my take on it.

Short term measure only till the police are sorted and scanned.

In late 2010 I drove overnight from Udon Thani to Chonburi to meet a friend who was on holiday and was stopped twice on roadblocks south of Korat.

One was manned by red shirts who were only interested if I had a Thai wife and if I was a reporter but I couldn't understand everything as I don't speak fluent Lao Khao. The second was an official police one and when i mentioned my earlier experience the young cop, good English speaker, said they knew but had been told to leave them alone.

There are faults etc on both sides but it;s only wrong when the other side does it however when the police abrogate their duty what's left ?

[ramrod711]

It warned the military the red shirts have a duty to protect democracy and would mobilise if there is a military coup.

I really hope that there isn't any more violence, but for Jatuporn and Nuttawut to warn the army is ridiculous. When the army shut down and dismantled the red fortress in 2010 neither one was visible, they were gone. Some might say they were cowards, others may say they showed good judgment, in any case the army knows what to expect from this pair. The mighty KO Tee, who wouldn't back down, wouldn't shut up and knew no fear is on the run like a convicted PM. Sounds like a case of talk the talk but no walking the walk.

[noitom]

Thai tanks ready to roll. Then what? Military government? Then what? A hand pick establishment lackey? Then what?

[Lingba]

Just goes to show you what a warped ego will do to someone who thinks he still doesn't have enough...Yingluck is gone..the country needs to go through the process of rightfully electing a new PM and if the army does anything right, they should stuff a sock in Sutheps mouth!....Enough of this guy already

[tullynagardy]

In “visiting” various television stations, Mr Suthep demanded that they broadcast live his nightly speeches and not air statements from Capo

Gives you an idea of the press freedoms we can expect if he ever got his way

[casualbiker]

Thai tanks ready to roll. Then what? Military government? Then what? A hand pick establishment lackey? Then what?

Well last time there was a " A hand pick establishment lackey " medical care became free and Thailand opened up cheaper availability for major drugs (Aids.heart etc)

Sent from my XT1032 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Ricardo]

Capo, in response, issued a short statement urging the public not to join the protests as they risked legal action.

And will no doubt issue the same warning to the UDD & its supporters, in the fullness of time, at the appropriate juncture, after due consideration, in order to avoid giving the impression that CAPO & the police have chosen sides ?

No Red Double-Standards !

[h90]

Thai tanks ready to roll. Then what? Military government? Then what? A hand pick establishment lackey? Then what?

Actually the last military government was the best government of Thailand I have seen.

[ginjag]

Thai tanks ready to roll. Then what? Military government? Then what? A hand pick establishment lackey? Then what?

All I know mate is that your government police force cannot do their job independently. Who is left to try to end this corrupt regime.

Get rid of regimes and police start again with mega law reforms--elections Why not ??? if you don't do this the situ will never change.

Have to mend the car to get it on the road again.

[love1012]

Thai tanks ready to roll. Then what? Military government? Then what? A hand pick establishment lackey? Then what?

........a square headed dictator hiding in Dubai behind bars, then what free speech and proper democratic elections for ALL thais .......THATS WHAT!!!!!!....................... ......but first Shinawatras need to be taken out of the picture THEN Thailand can be democratic!!

[love1012]

If the red shirts truly want to fight the army lets not worry when they have a hundred thousand casualties!!

[love1012]

If CAPO and Police can choose sides so openly why can't the army, the navy and the airforce?

[Scamper]

There is a growing sense that things are becoming untenable for the Pheu Thai administration from every conceivable and practical standpoint. They actually can't do anything but stand still. Already, Channels 3,5,7, and Thai PBS do not broadcast CAPO announcements. Channel 9 still does and Pheu Thai have found a way to get on Channel 11's signal - though that could be short-lived. The narrative is shifting away from the Pheu Thai narrative - which has become increasingly surreal in its disconnect.

[Publicus]

Thai tanks ready to roll. Then what? Military government? Then what? A hand pick establishment lackey? Then what?

Actually the last military government was the best government of Thailand I have seen.

The 2006 martial law military mutiny coup d'état and the 2007 military dictatorship that followed it constituted the most divisive event in the history of Thailand. It's been disastrous to Thailand, perhaps catastrophic.

The 2006 military mutiny and 2007 military dictatorship solved nothing and only created the new problems that presently exist.

Unprecedented divisions within the military mark the most prominent aspect of the irreconcilable differences that rack present day Thai society.

The moment the military acts it immediately ignites the unprecedented sharp divisions within itself. Half the military will go after the government while the other half will go after Suthep and his PDRC.

Good luck with that too.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Publicus

[givenall]

Come-on now Army Shxt or get off the crapper

[hcvc]

“Deja vu” or in the case of Thai politics “deja coup.” The premonition of yet another push for a putsch - though not necessarily by the military. Doesn't take a psychic to forecast the political future of a seated elected government burdened by mechanisms put in place by the powers from a previous coup. Checks and balances are an integral part of a democracy – but equilibrium will not occur in an environment populated with independent agencies perceived as partial. Justice and the rule of law are defiled when employed as a ploy to grab power. A government established to serve the needs of a minority will suffer imbalance in terms of its legitimacy and is likely to be challenged by the disenfranchised majority.

Thailand appears destined to cycle through political junctures until …

[stickyrice2000]

In the past they fought to claim democracy from dictatorship. I do not believe that Thai people would want another military coup. If the army is really for the people, they should just send Mr. Suthep to court to face his charges.

[coconutbar]

all eyes on military no more like eyes on peaking duck

[Robby nz]

Every time Jutaporn open his mouth the word coup comes out.

The reds really are desperate to give their boss Thaksin the coup the has been doing his best to instigate.

I suspect the armed element are primed and ready and we can expect direct hit and run attacks against less well guarded military bases as well as protesters and other soft targets.

Even then The army will likely resist moving in.

What they need to do is insist that they combine with the police and never work alone.

That way they will force the police to be part of any actions taken against any and all sides.

That way they are not taking over the Govt but acting as a peace keeping force with the police.

Indeed forcing helping the police to do their job by being with them.

[city]

When this is all over (til the next time) and Suthep gets his way how will the world greet the unelected government of '400 good men' . Abhisit was an outcast as his government was propped up by the army and he was never invited anywhere, effectively an outcast on the international stage. Thaksin was still the 'go to man' if you wanted a piece of the action in Thailand.

Stand back and think about that.... Abhisit the Prime Minister cannot buy a ticket for anything, no invites and not on anybodys Christmas card list. On the other hand Thaksin ramping up his frequent flyer miles with his full schedule on international meeting in several countries. So the 'allegded terrorist' was more popular than a ;pretty boy PM' In the eyes of the world Abhisit was a Pariah.

Jump forward now to 'the voice of the people' (well 50,000 of them) Mr Suthep. Does not want elections because he cannot win that, he just wants to grab power aided by The Unconstitutional Court (who are making up the rules as they go along) hoping the army will take to the streets if he provokes the opposition supporters and police enough. This could never be an army coup because the army is split at officer ranks it was always going to be some cockermamy judicial coup.

How will the governments of the world view Suthep if they shunned Abhisit, at least Abhisit had elected MP's albeit cobbled together in an army base.

Suthep is not fighting corruption, his backers need power at all costs, they are about to change the future of Thailand. Thailand is sky diving , without a parachute back into the middle ages.

[SamMunich]

Don't expect the military to come out in the open with tanks etc.
But I'm pretty sure, there is some "discussion" and "convincing" going on in the back. There are lines still open from the military leaders to both sides and my guess would be, that the military is using these.
A military coup would not help anybody, and the generals know that.

The problem right now is to avoid any "solution", that would bring us all back to square one. Now or even in two or three years. We had that and it didn't work out.

As much as I understand, that everybody wants this situation to end, we have to go through it to the end, else all the hassle in the past was good for nothing and in vain.

[SamMunich]

Ademin, please delete this double entry. A quirk in the software produced an error, which in itself was an error...

Don't expect the military to come out in the open with tanks etc.
But I'm pretty sure, there is some "discussion" and "convincing" going on in the back. There are lines still open from the military leaders to both sides and my guess would be, that the military is using these.
A military coup would not help anybody, and the generals know that.

The problem right now is to avoid any "solution", that would bring us all back to square one. Now or even in two or three years. We had that and it didn't work out.

As much as I understand, that everybody wants this situation to end, we have to go through it to the end, else all the hassle in the past was good for nothing and in vain.

Edited May 10, 2014 by SamMunich

[Publicus]

Sutep has gone on long enough!

He himself is the only dictator on the scene and now more intimidation from him and his yellow rabble who are not looking for any common ground just stirring up violence and hoping for a coup d'état .

They would rather see blood than see a ballot box!

Get this thug of the streets now.

The only dictator on the scene you said. stupid joke, Jutaporn--Chalerm and the rest, you lost your marbles ??? I partly agree with some of Sutheps approach, but it has sorted out a few of your saviours---PTP gang.

Ballot box YES YES after the total mess is cleared unless you want the mess to continue. GET all the dictators behind bars, do not be biased.

You want military dictators to put the dictators behind bars.

Oh, I just re-read your post. You want the military dictators to put the bad guy dictators behind bars. I see.

That's consistent and I'm not being sarcastic. The fact is military means and dictatorship have never produced democratic means or ends.

The martial law military coup 2007 constitution has led the country exactly and precisely to the here and now. Another coup is consistent with Thai logic and reasoning, i.e., two wrongs make a right and five more wrongs make it even more right.

That logic and reasoning have produced the current and ongoing death spiral of Thai civil society.

[bigbamboo]

With 'all eyes on the Army' I was wondering does anyone know who is actually the current Acting Caretaker Defence Minister...... aka their boss?