Phuket Property forecast view for rest of 2014? 2015?

[NamKangMan]

Repeating what other poeople say who have never owned property here and if they did overpaid for it

I think in two, or three years time, it will look like you live in a property that you overpaid for.

Stop being a trol you are useless at it

If you want to put your money where your mouth is, speculating that i overpaid for property i will be happy to oblige you

Who ever is wrong donates 30K baht or more if you like to increase the wager to The Phuket Sunshine Village Which is

a NGO that looks after orphaned and abandoned children

Its not me that fantasizes about the value of property i have purchased here, take a look in a mirror troll

There's an orphanage for abandoned children on Phuket?

I thought it was a "World Class Tourist Destination" where foreigners are buying up property for investment.

[NamKangMan]

All the properties look terrible before they have a coat of Render. The brick work is a joke and I am 99% sure its not only the brick work. I would never buy an apartment in Thailand. When you get problems in an apartment building its not good. A detached property with a decent amount of land might be an option but you need to set up a company to buy that in Thailand if you are a farang.

That trick is known in other places too! LOL. All makes sense. I think I probably in the "Set up a company..." situation. Thank you!

Take into account that if you setup a company with the sole purpose of owning a house, that is an illegal construction. So how secure that is???

People do it all the time and will keep doing it, the govt will not seize the companies or their assets, very bad business

for them if they did, they may clamp down on farangs who use a company to speculate in real estate by buying and selling

for a profit as plenty have done over the years but not on people who buy a house thru a company to live in

They haven't even got a Government at the moment, yet you know what they will do.

[nedkellylives]

Repeating what other poeople say who have never owned property here and if they did overpaid for it

I think in two, or three years time, it will look like you live in a property that you overpaid for.

I agree KB.

Most own a depreciating asset here, not an asset that is appreciating.

This is fine if it is purely a lifestyle decision, not a financial decision, but then there is the town planning issue I have mentioned.

Where you have bought today, may not be such a nice place 2 years from now.

For someone who claims to have a property portfolio you know nothing about real estate

Their are plenty of people some who post on this forum who have done very well buying ang selling real estate here

Although most have stopped doing it now with the current market

KB forecast i would loose money, i know i wont the same challenge i made to KB applies to you if you want to take it up

But for a rich guy like you lets make it 60K

[NamKangMan]

Repeating what other poeople say who have never owned property here and if they did overpaid for it

I think in two, or three years time, it will look like you live in a property that you overpaid for.

I agree KB.

Most own a depreciating asset here, not an asset that is appreciating.

This is fine if it is purely a lifestyle decision, not a financial decision, but then there is the town planning issue I have mentioned.

Where you have bought today, may not be such a nice place 2 years from now.

Does this apply to more established places like Kamala or Surin... or less developed places like Cape Yamu?

In relation to established areas, you may end up living in "Little Russia."

In relation to less developed areas, you may end up with hotels and resorts around you and not the quiet retirement lifestyle you were orginally seeking.

I think Phuket is going down the same path as Pattaya, so, drugs, crime, violence, con men, sex trade etc will all be on the rise.

The demographic of inhabitants of the island will definately change, that's for sure, just like the demographic of tourist has changed.

[NamKangMan]

Repeating what other poeople say who have never owned property here and if they did overpaid for it

I think in two, or three years time, it will look like you live in a property that you overpaid for.

I agree KB.

Most own a depreciating asset here, not an asset that is appreciating.

This is fine if it is purely a lifestyle decision, not a financial decision, but then there is the town planning issue I have mentioned.

Where you have bought today, may not be such a nice place 2 years from now.

For someone who claims to have a property portfolio you know nothing about real estate

Their are plenty of people some who post on this forum who have done very well buying ang selling real estate here

Although most have stopped doing it now with the current market

KB forecast i would loose money, i know i wont the same challenge i made to KB applies to you if you want to take it up

But for a rich guy like you lets make it 60K

I would suggest that if you put your property on the market at the moment, it would sit on the market for a considerable amount of time, until you significantly reduce the price, and even then, it will still be hard to sell.

[KarenBravo]

I'm not specifically talking about "units", I'm talking about houses, especially ones on estates.

Tell me why you think I'm wrong, when we both think there will be downward pressure on prices in the coming years.

As you have only bought relatively recently, it's quite conceivable that the re-sale price for your house will go lower than what you payed for it.

Not that its any of your busines but i did not buy the house from a managed estate but from a private seller

when it was 5/6 years old and the village i live in never was a managed estate

Challenge still stands

I'm talking about any estate, managed, or not. Is yours a custom built house, or, does it have others close by just like it?

As for you so called "challenge" (snigger),

"If you want to put your money where your mouth is, speculating that i overpaid for property i will be happy to oblige you".

Won't this take a couple of years to decide? And only if you sell it?

Seems kinda stupid to me, so, I'll pass. I can't wait that long.

[nedkellylives]

@NamKangMan

You no nothing about the property we purchased and its not for sale anyway

Someone recenty asked if we wanted to sell at a profit

The challenge still stands with you as well, make it100K if you like

Thats how sure i am and i am not a gambling man, although i do not mind making a donation

to a worthy charity, how about you

[KarenBravo]

I / we didn't say now. We said, sometime in the future it may look like you overpaid. Please try understanding what is written.

[nedkellylives]

I'm not specifically talking about "units", I'm talking about houses, especially ones on estates.

Tell me why you think I'm wrong, when we both think there will be downward pressure on prices in the coming years.

As you have only bought relatively recently, it's quite conceivable that the re-sale price for your house will go lower than what you payed for it.

Not that its any of your busines but i did not buy the house from a managed estate but from a private seller

when it was 5/6 years old and the village i live in never was a managed estate

Challenge still stands

I'm talking about any estate, managed, or not. Is yours a custom built house, or, does it have others close by just like it?

As for you so called "challenge" (snigger),

"If you want to put your money where your mouth is, speculating that i overpaid for property i will be happy to oblige you".

Won't this take a couple of years to decide? And only if you sell it?

Seems kinda stupid to me, so, I'll pass. I can't wait that long.

Or get a confirmed offer, but to waste n my or anyone elses time i would have to up the challenge to 200K

[nedkellylives]

I / we didn't say now. We said, sometime in the future it may look like you overpaid. Please try understanding what is written.

Troll

[NamKangMan]

@NamKangMan

You no nothing about the property we purchased and its not for sale anyway

Someone recenty asked if we wanted to sell at a profit

The challenge still stands with you as well, make it100K if you like

Thats how sure i am and i am not a gambling man, although i do not mind making a donation

to a worthy charity, how about you

You have something that no one wants to buy, just like the thousands of other properties here.

Your property is dropping in value, not because you overpaid when you bought in, but because the property market rug is being pulled out from under your feet. there's nothing you can do about it.

It's nothing personal Ned, and you have bought as a lifestyle choice, so the value of your property is of no consequence to you, but should you ever have a reason to sell, you will see how hard it will be to move, and will probably take a loss just to offload it.

[KarenBravo]

I / we didn't say now. We said, sometime in the future it may look like you overpaid. Please try understanding what is written.

Troll

No, not a troll. Go back and read the relevant post. It says sometime in the future.

If I were you, I would take that offer right now. There's a good chance that you could buy your house back for less in two or, three years time.

[madmitch]

A friend of mine was interested in buying a condo. Note the past tense.

I went with him a couple of weeks ago to some of the tiniest studios and one bedroom places imaginable, selling for the same price as the 3-bedroom detached house with land that we bought in Kata. Anything remotely decent was totally overpriced, yet there were many, many units available in some of these condo blocks.

I know some are being auctioned this weekend. I don't know if this is a face-saving method of selling at lower than the asking price, but to be honest, you wouldn't want to live in some of these places which were no bigger than a hotel room.

The system with condos seems to be build a few very small studios so you can advertise a low price and try to sell the overpriced larger units.

I too saw quite a lot of overpriced rubbish when looking for a house three and a bit years ago and when we saw one at the right price that fitted our criteria we didn't hesitate. As a few posters have said, many houses have been on the market for years and the price never goes down,

[KarenBravo]

If it makes you feel any better Ned, my property will probably lose value, too. Though I doubt it will go down to 1999 levels.

If you don't agree with what I posted in post #21, please use your considerable debating skills to logically refute the points that I made.

This would be far more convincing than bandying around insults and crying troll.

Edited May 16, 2014 by KarenBravo

[nedkellylives]

@NamKangMan

You no nothing about the property we purchased and its not for sale anyway

Someone recenty asked if we wanted to sell at a profit

The challenge still stands with you as well, make it100K if you like

Thats how sure i am and i am not a gambling man, although i do not mind making a donation

to a worthy charity, how about you

You have something that no one wants to buy, just like the thousands of other properties here.

Your property is dropping in value, not because you overpaid when you bought in, but because the property market rug is being pulled out from under your feet. there's nothing you can do about it.

It's nothing personal Ned, and you have bought as a lifestyle choice, so the value of your property is of no consequence to you, but should you ever have a reason to sell, you will see how hard it will be to move, and will probably take a loss just to offload it.

You are wrong about everything as usual, i am in the market for a second house or land now

If i could buy as well as i bought our current house price wise i can have the money transfered here in 3 days

And i would not loose money, never have and never will in real estate

no one gets the asking price from me especially here and no one has to except my offer

its up to them take it or leave it no problem

Some blocks of land were recently sold in Chalong for 3M a rai, i though about buying but did not because of the amount

of vacant land avalible in the area and will be avaliable for a long time

If you watch the market good buys come up every few weeks, usually because people are leaving permantly but the property

has to be one you are personally interested in, We are fussy buyers

[nedkellylives]

If it makes you feel any better Ned, my property will probably lose value, too. Though I doubt it will go down to 1999 levels.

If you don't agree with what I posted in post #21, please use your considerable debating skills to logically refute the points that I made.

This would be far more convincing than bandying around insults and crying troll.

your property is not worth what you think it is by a long way, i know that

Buying in 1999 you will definately get good capitol gains, great time to buy

#21 you are on about condo's i call them flats, i bedroom combined kitcken, dining and livings area

Who would be stupid enough to buy one, not me they have been in oversupply for years, compete

buildings almost empty and they just keep building more, it may be your ideal investment not mine

I would not buy a apartment either, corporate body's control the building and you have to get permision

to do any work on your own unit

[steelepulse]

A friend of mine was interested in buying a condo. Note the past tense.

I went with him a couple of weeks ago to some of the tiniest studios and one bedroom places imaginable, selling for the same price as the 3-bedroom detached house with land that we bought in Kata. Anything remotely decent was totally overpriced, yet there were many, many units available in some of these condo blocks.

I know some are being auctioned this weekend. I don't know if this is a face-saving method of selling at lower than the asking price, but to be honest, you wouldn't want to live in some of these places which were no bigger than a hotel room.

The system with condos seems to be build a few very small studios so you can advertise a low price and try to sell the overpriced larger units.

I too saw quite a lot of overpriced rubbish when looking for a house three and a bit years ago and when we saw one at the right price that fitted our criteria we didn't hesitate. As a few posters have said, many houses have been on the market for years and the price never goes down,

There are just too many developers that jumped in thinking they could double their money by selling to ignorant investors. I remember 5-6 years ago some condos were in presale and my wife told me that many Thai people were buying multiple units to just flip them and make a fast baht. Strategy worked back then, but it sure won't now. There is a serious oversupply of condos.

Here's a story about a friend of mine. He was talked into a sale of condos in Patong with ocean views by a mutual friend, but of course he had to make up front payments. Now that his third installment was due, he was getting cold feet and wanted to sell back to the developer who promised they would buy back for a "small profit" for the original buyer. The offer they gave him was a 33% haircut on his initial payments! His friend the broker than tries to convince him to buy some shoeboxes behind soi bangla with no view. I'm pretty sure my friend sold just to get out of the "investment".

[usasia8888]

If it makes you feel any better Ned, my property will probably lose value, too. Though I doubt it will go down to 1999 levels.

If you don't agree with what I posted in post #21, please use your considerable debating skills to logically refute the points that I made.

This would be far more convincing than bandying around insults and crying troll.

your property is not worth what you think it is by a long way, i know that

Buying in 1999 you will definately get good capitol gains, great time to buy

#21 you are on about condo's i call them flats, i bedroom combined kitcken, dining and livings area

Who would be stupid enough to buy one, not me they have been in oversupply for years, compete

buildings almost empty and they just keep building more, it may be your ideal investment not mine

I would not buy a apartment either, corporate body's control the building and you have to get permision

to do any work on your own unit

would either of you buy a 4 to 6 bedroom villa?

[KarenBravo]

If it makes you feel any better Ned, my property will probably lose value, too. Though I doubt it will go down to 1999 levels.

If you don't agree with what I posted in post #21, please use your considerable debating skills to logically refute the points that I made.

This would be far more convincing than bandying around insults and crying troll.

your property is not worth what you think it is by a long way, i know that

Buying in 1999 you will definately get good capitol gains, great time to buy

#21 you are on about condo's i call them flats, i bedroom combined kitcken, dining and livings area

Who would be stupid enough to buy one, not me they have been in oversupply for years, compete

buildings almost empty and they just keep building more, it may be your ideal investment not mine

I would not buy a apartment either, corporate body's control the building and you have to get permision

to do any work on your own unit

No, I'm not on about condos. As I have stated many times now, I'm talking about houses, not, custom-built houses, but, houses where there are many of similar designs.

I have also said that I have no idea what my property is worth, so, how would you know it's not worth as much as I think.

Please try and comprehend the posts first before replying to them. Don't just make stuff up. Go back and try and refute post #21.

[NamKangMan]

@NamKangMan

You no nothing about the property we purchased and its not for sale anyway

Someone recenty asked if we wanted to sell at a profit

The challenge still stands with you as well, make it100K if you like

Thats how sure i am and i am not a gambling man, although i do not mind making a donation

to a worthy charity, how about you

You have something that no one wants to buy, just like the thousands of other properties here.

Your property is dropping in value, not because you overpaid when you bought in, but because the property market rug is being pulled out from under your feet. there's nothing you can do about it.

It's nothing personal Ned, and you have bought as a lifestyle choice, so the value of your property is of no consequence to you, but should you ever have a reason to sell, you will see how hard it will be to move, and will probably take a loss just to offload it.

You are wrong about everything as usual, i am in the market for a second house or land now

If i could buy as well as i bought our current house price wise i can have the money transfered here in 3 days

And i would not loose money, never have and never will in real estate

no one gets the asking price from me especially here and no one has to except my offer

its up to them take it or leave it no problem

Some blocks of land were recently sold in Chalong for 3M a rai, i though about buying but did not because of the amount

of vacant land avalible in the area and will be avaliable for a long time

If you watch the market good buys come up every few weeks, usually because people are leaving permantly but the property

has to be one you are personally interested in, We are fussy buyers

"i would not loose money, never have and never will in real estate" - real estate is a boom and bust cycle. Typically, it's around every 7 years, in western countries.

Some make money, some lose money.

As they say in the west, "buy in the gloom - sell in the boom" but we are not in the west. We are on Phuket, and western property market principles do not apply here. Hell, you can't even own the land you property sits on here.

Your comment that you would never lose is real estate here is to be taken with a grain of salt. There are just too many variables here.

Imagine for one minute Thailand slips into civil war - your property is not worth a thing. Sure, very left field, but never say never in Thailand.

A more likely scenario is the oversupply of property on the market pushing the value of your property down, right down, whether you like it, or not.

This is what KB is trying to say to you. If you were to buy a property for a bargain today, next year, you probably wouldn't be even able to sell it for what you paid for it.

Just how low the market will go is anyone's guess, but with the Russians, Chinese and Indians being the main tourists demographic for Phuket now, that's not a great advertisement for the place.

Only time will tell, but I am sure many will be left with vacant and decaying buildings here in the future, if not already.

Edited May 16, 2014 by NamKangMan

[usasia8888]

@NamKangMan

You no nothing about the property we purchased and its not for sale anyway

Someone recenty asked if we wanted to sell at a profit

The challenge still stands with you as well, make it100K if you like

Thats how sure i am and i am not a gambling man, although i do not mind making a donation

to a worthy charity, how about you

You have something that no one wants to buy, just like the thousands of other properties here.

Your property is dropping in value, not because you overpaid when you bought in, but because the property market rug is being pulled out from under your feet. there's nothing you can do about it.

It's nothing personal Ned, and you have bought as a lifestyle choice, so the value of your property is of no consequence to you, but should you ever have a reason to sell, you will see how hard it will be to move, and will probably take a loss just to offload it.

You are wrong about everything as usual, i am in the market for a second house or land now

If i could buy as well as i bought our current house price wise i can have the money transfered here in 3 days

And i would not loose money, never have and never will in real estate

no one gets the asking price from me especially here and no one has to except my offer

its up to them take it or leave it no problem

Some blocks of land were recently sold in Chalong for 3M a rai, i though about buying but did not because of the amount

of vacant land avalible in the area and will be avaliable for a long time

If you watch the market good buys come up every few weeks, usually because people are leaving permantly but the property

has to be one you are personally interested in, We are fussy buyers

"i would not loose money, never have and never will in real estate" - real estate is a boom and bust cycle. Typically, it's around every 7 years, in western countries.

Some make money, some lose money.

As they say in the west, "buy in the gloom - sell in the boom" but we are not in the west. We are on Phuket, and western property market principles do not apply here. Hell, you can't even own the land you property sits on here.

Your comment that you would never lose is real estate here is to be taken with a grain of salt. There are just too many variables here.

Imagine for one minute Thailand slips into civil war - your property is not worth a thing. Sure, very left field, but never say never in Thailand.

A more likely scenario is the oversupply of property on the market pushing the value of your property down, right down, whether you like it, or not.

This is what KB is trying to say to you. If you were to buy a property for a bargain today, next year, you probably wouldn't be even able to sell it for what you paid for it.

Just how low the market will go is anyone's guess, but with the Russians, Chinese and Indians being the main tourists demographic for Phuket now, that's not a great advertisement for the place.

Only time will tell, but I am sure many will be left with vacant and decaying buildings here in the future, if not already.

-----------------

I am a little afraid to join this tennis match but... with Russians, Chinese and Indians coming, they have especially the Russians in London and the Chinese in HK, Sydney, Melbourne, Singapore, part of the US and London, could push some of the prices up right?

[KarenBravo]

Not the same. The Russians, Chinese and Indians buying property in London are ultra rich. They have to be as the property in the west-end of London is some of the most expensive in the world and it keeps going up as demand out-strips supply.

In Phuket, most of the visible Russians, Chinese and to a lesser extend Indians are on budget, all inclusive tours. They are not buyers of property. Phuket has already lost the quality tourists from western countries. It is now a mass-market destination. Add to the fact that the available properties in Phuket far out-strip demand, then, prices should go down. As they never do, you end up with a stagnant market where buyers and sellers cannot agree on a price.

Yes, you may get the occasional perceived "bargain" from a distressed sale, but, Thais never lower the price and that house that was a "bargain" this year may have it's value halved in years to come. Something I've been trying unsuccessfully to explain to Ned.

Edited May 16, 2014 by KarenBravo

[NamKangMan]

@ usasia8888

The places you mention are global financial hubs, and are backed up by a solid judicial system. You have security when you buy property in those places.

What's Phuket? A mafia controled tropical holiday island, in a terribly corrupt country, that is being raped and pillaged by property developers.

There might be some money laundering here, particularly by the Russians, but no serious investment by these purchasers.

What I was getting at was, there are not the westerners coming to Phuket in the numbers they were in the past, so, less westerners interested in retirement here, let alone, "investing."

[usasia8888]

Not the same. The Russians, Chinese and Indians buying property in London are ultra rich. They have to be as the property in the west-end of London is some of the most expensive in the world and it keeps going up as demand out-strips supply.

In Phuket, most of the visible Russians, Chinese and to a lesser extend Indians are on budget, all inclusive tours. They are not buyers of property. Phuket has already lost the quality tourists from western countries. It is now a mass-market destination. Add to the fact that the available properties in Phuket far out-strip demand, then, prices should go down. As they never do, you end up with a stagnant market where buyers and sellers cannot agree on a price.

Yes, you may get the occasional perceived "bargain" from a distressed sale, but, Thais never lower the price and that house that was a "bargain" this year may have it's value halved in years to come. Something I've been trying unsuccessfully to explain to Ned.

I should have some bargaining room. Too many villas and I can wait for years. Appreciate the followup on the differences. I live in HK and have clearly seen my share of both.

[usasia8888]

@ usasia8888

The places you mention are global financial hubs, and are backed up by a solid judicial system. You have security when you buy property in those places.

What's Phuket? A mafia controled tropical holiday island, in a terribly corrupt country, that is being raped and pillaged by property developers.

There might be some money laundering here, particularly by the Russians, but no serious investment by these purchasers.

What I was getting at was, there are not the westerners coming to Phuket in the numbers they were in the past, so, less westerners interested in retirement here, let alone, "investing."

I am starting to feel like a black swan.

[nedkellylives]

Not the same. The Russians, Chinese and Indians buying property in London are ultra rich. They have to be as the property in the west-end of London is some of the most expensive in the world and it keeps going up as demand out-strips supply.

In Phuket, most of the visible Russians, Chinese and to a lesser extend Indians are on budget, all inclusive tours. They are not buyers of property. Phuket has already lost the quality tourists from western countries. It is now a mass-market destination. Add to the fact that the available properties in Phuket far out-strip demand, then, prices should go down. As they never do, you end up with a stagnant market where buyers and sellers cannot agree on a price.

Yes, you may get the occasional perceived "bargain" from a distressed sale, but, Thais never lower the price and that house that was a "bargain" this year may have it's value halved in years to come. Something I've been trying unsuccessfully to explain to Ned.

Russians are buying and renting quite a lot of property not the Chinese and indians

What quality tourists has phuket lost from what country???

more 5 star resorts every year and they are busy, less cheap flights and cheap accomodation people who are not quality tourists

And rent rooms, condo's etc and never stay in resorts on average

Why would Thai's lower their prices most only sell a small amount of their land when they sell and usually have plenty left

The ones we know anyway, why sell a asset if you do not need to if you have a good standard of living

The only reasonably priced houses are sold by farangs who have to leave Thailand, they are not bargains but not overpriced either

These are not distressed sales but genuine sellers and realize they will not be getting up to 5 times what they paid for a property

unless they have owned it a long time

[nedkellylives]

@ usasia8888

The places you mention are global financial hubs, and are backed up by a solid judicial system. You have security when you buy property in those places.

What's Phuket? A mafia controled tropical holiday island, in a terribly corrupt country, that is being raped and pillaged by property developers.

There might be some money laundering here, particularly by the Russians, but no serious investment by these purchasers.

What I was getting at was, there are not the westerners coming to Phuket in the numbers they were in the past, so, less westerners interested in retirement here, let alone, "investing."

I am starting to feel like a black swan.

Plenty of people who can afford to retire and invest in a property in Phuket still, they purchase a house/villa not condo's

and the people i know do not buy in managed estates, they come from UK, aust,USA and canada and all can afford to buy

unlike a lot of people who post on forums and live in cheap condo's or rooms

[KarenBravo]

How do you know the financial situation of "people who post on forums"?

It does not necessarily follow that a person who lives in cheap accommodation isn't financially secure. You know what they say about assuming things.

[NamKangMan]

@ usasia8888

The places you mention are global financial hubs, and are backed up by a solid judicial system. You have security when you buy property in those places.

What's Phuket? A mafia controled tropical holiday island, in a terribly corrupt country, that is being raped and pillaged by property developers.

There might be some money laundering here, particularly by the Russians, but no serious investment by these purchasers.

What I was getting at was, there are not the westerners coming to Phuket in the numbers they were in the past, so, less westerners interested in retirement here, let alone, "investing."

I am starting to feel like a black swan.

No, you are a FARANG, not a black swan. A farang is lower than a black swan here.

Edited May 16, 2014 by NamKangMan

[NamKangMan]

@ usasia8888

The places you mention are global financial hubs, and are backed up by a solid judicial system. You have security when you buy property in those places.

What's Phuket? A mafia controled tropical holiday island, in a terribly corrupt country, that is being raped and pillaged by property developers.

There might be some money laundering here, particularly by the Russians, but no serious investment by these purchasers.

What I was getting at was, there are not the westerners coming to Phuket in the numbers they were in the past, so, less westerners interested in retirement here, let alone, "investing."

I am starting to feel like a black swan.

Plenty of people who can afford to retire and invest in a property in Phuket still, they purchase a house/villa not condo's

and the people i know do not buy in managed estates, they come from UK, aust,USA and canada and all can afford to buy

unlike a lot of people who post on forums and live in cheap condo's or rooms

You keep banging on about who can "afford to buy" and who can not. I can afford to buy, right now, but even if I won the national lottery in my home country, I still wouldn't buy here.

It's not about affordability. It's about a sound financial decision, and for me, buying into property here, even to live in it myself, is not a wise financial decision.

Stop thinking that people who do not buy here simply can't afford to, because that is just not correct.