Phuket Property forecast view for rest of 2014? 2015?

[Colonel_Mustard]

Property that is reasonably priced will sell without too much of a problem. The problem is too many owners overvalue their property.

Everyone that I personally know that has put their property on the market at a sensible price in the last 12 months sold it fairly quickly (myself included). In each case to buyers from Hong Kong.

I can't see prices going up much in the short to mid-term but I also don't see them going down either (barring increased civil unrest). I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment.

[NamKangMan]

Property that is reasonably priced will sell without too much of a problem. The problem is too many owners overvalue their property.

Everyone that I personally know that has put their property on the market at a sensible price in the last 12 months sold it fairly quickly (myself included). In each case to buyers from Hong Kong.

I can't see prices going up much in the short to mid-term but I also don't see them going down either (barring increased civil unrest). I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment.

" I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment." - so, in other words, you would make a donation to a property developer.

[Colonel_Mustard]

Property that is reasonably priced will sell without too much of a problem. The problem is too many owners overvalue their property.

Everyone that I personally know that has put their property on the market at a sensible price in the last 12 months sold it fairly quickly (myself included). In each case to buyers from Hong Kong.

I can't see prices going up much in the short to mid-term but I also don't see them going down either (barring increased civil unrest). I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment.

" I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment." - so, in other words, you would make a donation to a property developer.

As I said I'd only buy a property to live in with the expectation of not losing money on it but also not making much, if any profit. I'd also save on paying rent in the meantime.

I had a house built here about 10 years ago and sold it this year. I made quite a lot of profit on the original build cost but by the time I factor in maintenance costs over that period, then I guess I have done slightly better than breaking even and have, in effect, lived there rent free for a very enjoyable 10 years.

I would never buy property in Thailand as an investment vehicle but purely as a way to live in the property that I want, for as long as I want and get my money back when I want to move on. That's ok by me. For investments there are better opportunities than property in Thailand or elsewhere.

[NamKangMan]

Property that is reasonably priced will sell without too much of a problem. The problem is too many owners overvalue their property.

Everyone that I personally know that has put their property on the market at a sensible price in the last 12 months sold it fairly quickly (myself included). In each case to buyers from Hong Kong.

I can't see prices going up much in the short to mid-term but I also don't see them going down either (barring increased civil unrest). I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment.

" I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment." - so, in other words, you would make a donation to a property developer.

As I said I'd only buy a property to live in with the expectation of not losing money on it but also not making much, if any profit. I'd also save on paying rent in the meantime.

I had a house built here about 10 years ago and sold it this year. I made quite a lot of profit on the original build cost but by the time I factor in maintenance costs over that period, then I guess I have done slightly better than breaking even and have, in effect, lived there rent free for a very enjoyable 10 years.

I would never buy property in Thailand as an investment vehicle but purely as a way to live in the property that I want, for as long as I want and get my money back when I want to move on. That's ok by me. For investments there are better opportunities than property in Thailand or elsewhere.

I agree with what you are saying, but with a higher sale price for property here now, that money can be put to better use than simply buying a property to avoid paying rent, which is so cheap here.

Without a gain on your outlay, not to mention the maintenance costs and fees over the years, I consider renting to be the better option, rather than breaking even, or having a loss, on property here.

The money one would use to buy a property here, that will not appreciate in the future, and in fact, will probably depreciate, plus maintenance etc - can be used to cover rental costs, plus some.

[Colonel_Mustard]

Property that is reasonably priced will sell without too much of a problem. The problem is too many owners overvalue their property.

Everyone that I personally know that has put their property on the market at a sensible price in the last 12 months sold it fairly quickly (myself included). In each case to buyers from Hong Kong.

I can't see prices going up much in the short to mid-term but I also don't see them going down either (barring increased civil unrest). I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment.

" I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment." - so, in other words, you would make a donation to a property developer.

As I said I'd only buy a property to live in with the expectation of not losing money on it but also not making much, if any profit. I'd also save on paying rent in the meantime.

I had a house built here about 10 years ago and sold it this year. I made quite a lot of profit on the original build cost but by the time I factor in maintenance costs over that period, then I guess I have done slightly better than breaking even and have, in effect, lived there rent free for a very enjoyable 10 years.

I would never buy property in Thailand as an investment vehicle but purely as a way to live in the property that I want, for as long as I want and get my money back when I want to move on. That's ok by me. For investments there are better opportunities than property in Thailand or elsewhere.

I agree with what you are saying, but with a higher sale price for property here now, that money can be put to better use than simply buying a property to avoid paying rent, which is so cheap here.

Without a gain on your outlay, not to mention the maintenance costs and fees over the years, I consider renting to be the better option, rather than breaking even, or having a loss, on property here.

The money one would use to buy a property here, that will not appreciate in the future, and in fact, will probably depreciate, plus maintenance etc - can be used to cover rental costs, plus some.

As I said, there are better investments than property. However, I'm glad I bought. I got to design the exact house that I wanted, where I wanted and got to decide when I wanted to leave. I couldn't guarantee that in a rented place. I had a wonderful 10 years there and it was a perfect place to bring my children up, so no regrets at all.

I'm keeping a property in the North of Thailand in case I decide to return to Thailand at any time in the future. If I wanted to return to Phuket for a couple of years or so at any time, then in the future I would probably rent as the kids would most likely be grown up by then and i wouldn't feel the need to be quite so choosy about where I lived.

[Jimi007]

Property that is reasonably priced will sell without too much of a problem. The problem is too many owners overvalue their property.

Everyone that I personally know that has put their property on the market at a sensible price in the last 12 months sold it fairly quickly (myself included). In each case to buyers from Hong Kong.

I can't see prices going up much in the short to mid-term but I also don't see them going down either (barring increased civil unrest). I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment.

" I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment." - so, in other words, you would make a donation to a property developer.

As I said I'd only buy a property to live in with the expectation of not losing money on it but also not making much, if any profit. I'd also save on paying rent in the meantime.

I had a house built here about 10 years ago and sold it this year. I made quite a lot of profit on the original build cost but by the time I factor in maintenance costs over that period, then I guess I have done slightly better than breaking even and have, in effect, lived there rent free for a very enjoyable 10 years.

I would never buy property in Thailand as an investment vehicle but purely as a way to live in the property that I want, for as long as I want and get my money back when I want to move on. That's ok by me. For investments there are better opportunities than property in Thailand or elsewhere.

I agree with what you are saying, but with a higher sale price for property here now, that money can be put to better use than simply buying a property to avoid paying rent, which is so cheap here.

Without a gain on your outlay, not to mention the maintenance costs and fees over the years, I consider renting to be the better option, rather than breaking even, or having a loss, on property here.

The money one would use to buy a property here, that will not appreciate in the future, and in fact, will probably depreciate, plus maintenance etc - can be used to cover rental costs, plus some.

I agree with you once again. I know it a rarity! ;-) I've been renting the same house in Rawai for about 9 years at the same price. I think about giving the place up as I'm not in Thailand as much as I use to be, but it's cheap to keep.

[gaztop08]

Anyone recognise these units...prime position Patong Beach.Looked nice when they were built but don't think ever seen them occupied.

[LivinginKata]

^

Built quite a few years ago, like 8 years ago. Never saw one occupied. I thought some of them had been demolished to make way for a bigger building.

[Peterocket]

Just how low the market will go is anyone's guess, but with the Russians, Chinese and Indians being the main tourists demographic for Phuket now, that's not a great advertisement for the place.

The Chinese and Russians are the reason that property prices will not depreciate as you think

3 high end units sold where I live in the last 6 weeks, BMW 6 series in the car park and a Mercedes SLK. Not to mention other units being rented by Russian couples at over 100k per month.

Are your comments not quite racist?

[KarenBravo]

Yet again, the "R" word is used incorrectly.

I think you mean prejudiced, or bigoted.

[nedkellylives]

As I said I'd only buy a property to live in with the expectation of not losing money on it but also not making much, if any profit. I'd also save on paying rent in the meantime.

" I'd buy a property here to live in but not as an investment." - so, in other words, you would make a donation to a property developer.

I had a house built here about 10 years ago and sold it this year. I made quite a lot of profit on the original build cost but by the time I factor in maintenance costs over that period, then I guess I have done slightly better than breaking even and have, in effect, lived there rent free for a very enjoyable 10 years.

I would never buy property in Thailand as an investment vehicle but purely as a way to live in the property that I want, for as long as I want and get my money back when I want to move on. That's ok by me. For investments there are better opportunities than property in Thailand or elsewhere.

I agree with what you are saying, but with a higher sale price for property here now, that money can be put to better use than simply buying a property to avoid paying rent, which is so cheap here.

Without a gain on your outlay, not to mention the maintenance costs and fees over the years, I consider renting to be the better option, rather than breaking even, or having a loss, on property here.

The money one would use to buy a property here, that will not appreciate in the future, and in fact, will probably depreciate, plus maintenance etc - can be used to cover rental costs, plus some.

I agree with you once again. I know it a rarity! ;-) I've been renting the same house in Rawai for about 9 years at the same price. I think about giving the place up as I'm not in Thailand as much as I use to be, but it's cheap to keep.

You live, work and own your own home in California, Your Thai wife and Thai dog live with you in USA

You only spend leasure time in Thailand and have very cheap rent why would you buy

Edited May 19, 2014 by LivinginKata
quotes corrected

[NamKangMan]

Just how low the market will go is anyone's guess, but with the Russians, Chinese and Indians being the main tourists demographic for Phuket now, that's not a great advertisement for the place.

The Chinese and Russians are the reason that property prices will not depreciate as you think

3 high end units sold where I live in the last 6 weeks, BMW 6 series in the car park and a Mercedes SLK. Not to mention other units being rented by Russian couples at over 100k per month.

Are your comments not quite racist?

Not racists at all.

I have some Russian friends.

There are many Russians with a lot of money to spend, some with legitimate money, some with black money.

In the past, a high percentage of western tourists came here, fell in love with the place, bought property and retired here, why, because they could afford to.

I am suggesting a much lower percntage of Russian tourists will ever have the ability to purchase property and retire here, at the rate the westerners have in the past, and as the western tourist market is shrinking for Phuket, that means less western buyers.

The Phuket property market, especially with it's oversupply, can't rely on a small percentage of wealthy Russians to keep the market buoyant.

[NamKangMan]

Yet again, the "R" word is used incorrectly.

I think you mean prejudiced, or bigoted.

I may be a lot of things, but racist, prejudiced and bigoted, I am not.

I take offence to such an insult, but as this is all friendly internet banter, no bother.

If you are racist, prejudiced and bigoited against a racist, prejudiced and bigot - what does that make you?

[Peterocket]

Yet again, the "R" word is used incorrectly.

I think you mean prejudiced, or bigoted.

I may be a lot of things, but racist, prejudiced and bigoted, I am not.

I take offence to such an insult, but as this is all friendly internet banter, no bother.

If you are racist, prejudiced and bigoited against a racist, prejudiced and bigot - what does that make you?

Just to confirm you feel that Russians and Chinese coming to Phuket is a bad advertisement and will make property prices drop.

Can you expand on the reasons for that?

To me inaccurately accusing a nationality or race of devaluing a province seems a little border line.

[KarenBravo]

Yet again, the "R" word is used incorrectly.

I think you mean prejudiced, or bigoted.

I may be a lot of things, but racist, prejudiced and bigoted, I am not.

I take offence to such an insult, but as this is all friendly internet banter, no bother.

If you are racist, prejudiced and bigoited against a racist, prejudiced and bigot - what does that make you?

Why are you directing your remarks at me?

I was just pointing out the incorrect usage of a word and the correct substitutes.

[NamKangMan]

Yet again, the "R" word is used incorrectly.

I think you mean prejudiced, or bigoted.

I may be a lot of things, but racist, prejudiced and bigoted, I am not.

I take offence to such an insult, but as this is all friendly internet banter, no bother.

If you are racist, prejudiced and bigoited against a racist, prejudiced and bigot - what does that make you?

Just to confirm you feel that Russians and Chinese coming to Phuket is a bad advertisement and will make property prices drop.

Can you expand on the reasons for that?

To me inaccurately accusing a nationality or race of devaluing a province seems a little border line.

Don't mix up the two.

In my opinion, the property market on Phuket will devalue, due to the many reasons I have stated in previous posts, but mainly due to oversupply.

My comment on Russians, Chinese and Indians being the new demographic of tourists to Phuket, and the fact a high percentage of these are the cheaper package holiday tourists, is not a great advertisement for the tourism industry on Phuket.

Where there is a small "cross over" is the ones that holiday here, may love the place and retire here one day, buying property, but the percentage of those who can afford to, when compared to the western market, is much smaller, and the fact the western tourist market is shrinking on Phuket, simply means less people with the money to buy here in the future.

Put very simply, in the past, tourism (people holidaying here) was an indirect advertisement for the Phuket property market and many returned for holidays here, year after year, and then went on to retire here, purchasing property.

With the new demographic of tourists coming to Phuket, being lower end package holiday makers, a high percentage of these tourists will never be able to afford to retire here, and they are Russian, Chinese and Indian.

So, to give a basic example, due to a lot of the negative publicity Phuket receives, a 60 year old western guy holidays on Samui. He loves the place, and holidays there a few times more. He then starts looking at property, as he is retiring soon. He buys and retires on Samui. In the past, he may have come to Phuket, and eventually, the Phuket property market may have seen his money. Phuket's increasing poor reputation has taken one less western buyer out of the property market.

The "poor reputation" I am talking about is not the nationality of the tourists coming here. It's the lack of infastructure, the service, lack of transport, pricing, crime, drugs, scams, traffic, pollution, policing, accidents etc etc.

Now, that westerner guy has been replace by a Russian, Chinese or Indian guy. I am suggesting they do not have the capability, and perhaps the desire, to retire on Phuket, buying property, as those from the west. They come from emerging economies, not western economies. Salaries, work conditions, Governmnet benefits etc are not as developed. So, many of them can't, therefore don't, buy property here.

In my opinion, basically, the way the "influential people" on Phuket are running the place, it will, if it has not already, have a negative impact on the property market here in the future.

It's a complex issue, but I hope that clarifies my thoughts for you.

Edited May 19, 2014 by NamKangMan

[nontabury]

There are hundreds, if not thousands of properties on the market for sale here. That should say something to you.

Some have been on the market for years - and that is not an exaggeration, years.

Many of these properties will not sell because the listing price is too high, most probably because the owner originally paid too higher price for the property when they bought it.

The land the property is sitting on most likely has a 30 year land lease, so is diminishing year by year, and who know what will happen when year 30 arrives.

They keep building and building and building here, so there will definately be, if not already, an oversupply of property on the market, pushing sales and rents down.

Phuket property boomed in the late 80's to early 90's - a lot of these properties will have their 30 years land leases up soon. It will be interesting to see what happens.

In my opinion, I think you will see downward pressure on the property market here.

If you chose to buy, do so without any expectation there will be any appreciation of the asset, in fact, you should expect depreciation.

You should just look at your purchase as a lifestyle decision, rather than an investment. The trouble with that is, as there is no town planning here, you never really know what will become of the area you chose to live in.

Well surely a new owner will put the land into someone else's name, and then make a new 30yr lease. In other words you simple start again, that's what I did.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[Peterocket]

Don't mix up the two.

In my opinion, the property market on Phuket will devalue, due to the many reasons I have stated in previous posts, but mainly due to oversupply.

My comment on Russians, Chinese and Indians being the new demographic of tourists to Phuket, and the fact a high percentage of these are the cheaper package holiday tourists, is not a great advertisement for the tourism industry on Phuket.

Where there is a small "cross over" is the ones that holiday here, may love the place and retire here one day, buying property, but the percentage of those who can afford to, when compared to the western market, is much smaller, and the fact the western tourist market is shrinking on Phuket, simply means less people with the money to buy here in the future.

Put very simply, in the past, tourism (people holidaying here) was an indirect advertisement for the Phuket property market and many returned for holidays here, year after year, and then went on to retire here, purchasing property.

With the new demographic of tourists coming to Phuket, being lower end package holiday makers, a high percentage of these tourists will never be able to afford to retire here, and they are Russian, Chinese and Indian.

So, to give a basic example, due to a lot of the negative publicity Phuket receives, a 60 year old western guy holidays on Samui. He loves the place, and holidays there a few times more. He then starts looking at property, as he is retiring soon. He buys and retires on Samui. In the past, he may have come to Phuket, and eventually, the Phuket property market may have seen his money. Phuket's increasing poor reputation has taken one less western buyer out of the property market.

The "poor reputation" I am talking about is not the nationality of the tourists coming here. It's the lack of infastructure, the service, lack of transport, pricing, crime, drugs, scams, traffic, pollution, policing, accidents etc etc.

Now, that westerner guy has been replace by a Russian, Chinese or Indian guy. I am suggesting they do not have the capability, and perhaps the desire, to retire on Phuket, buying property, as those from the west. They come from emerging economies, not western economies. Salaries, work conditions, Governmnet benefits etc are not as developed. So, many of them can't, therefore don't, buy property here.

In my opinion, basically, the way the "influential people" on Phuket are running the place, it will, if it has not already, have a negative impact on the property market here in the future.

It's a complex issue, but I hope that clarifies my thoughts for you.

Russians have plenty of capability to buy holiday homes/second homes as do the Chinese. In fact most markets are all looking at the Chinese as the next source of income/sales. I know of various projects that are almost exclusively only marketing to the Chinese. Royal Carribean are even surprisingly sending their newest flagship cruise liner to run out of china. Honestly I don't mean to be rude but I really don't think you have a grasp of the current market conditions in terms of tourists and/or property sales.

Why is tourism booming here if it has such a poor reputation as you have said? The tourists must be sat there in China according to your thinking saying..."I know a crap place to go on holiday....lets book there!! Woohoo"

[KarenBravo]

What is the percentage of Chinese on package tours to rich, independent Chinese tourist?

The same question for the Russians.

[usasia8888]

Don't mix up the two.

In my opinion, the property market on Phuket will devalue, due to the many reasons I have stated in previous posts, but mainly due to oversupply.

My comment on Russians, Chinese and Indians being the new demographic of tourists to Phuket, and the fact a high percentage of these are the cheaper package holiday tourists, is not a great advertisement for the tourism industry on Phuket.

Where there is a small "cross over" is the ones that holiday here, may love the place and retire here one day, buying property, but the percentage of those who can afford to, when compared to the western market, is much smaller, and the fact the western tourist market is shrinking on Phuket, simply means less people with the money to buy here in the future.

Put very simply, in the past, tourism (people holidaying here) was an indirect advertisement for the Phuket property market and many returned for holidays here, year after year, and then went on to retire here, purchasing property.

With the new demographic of tourists coming to Phuket, being lower end package holiday makers, a high percentage of these tourists will never be able to afford to retire here, and they are Russian, Chinese and Indian.

So, to give a basic example, due to a lot of the negative publicity Phuket receives, a 60 year old western guy holidays on Samui. He loves the place, and holidays there a few times more. He then starts looking at property, as he is retiring soon. He buys and retires on Samui. In the past, he may have come to Phuket, and eventually, the Phuket property market may have seen his money. Phuket's increasing poor reputation has taken one less western buyer out of the property market.

The "poor reputation" I am talking about is not the nationality of the tourists coming here. It's the lack of infastructure, the service, lack of transport, pricing, crime, drugs, scams, traffic, pollution, policing, accidents etc etc.

Now, that westerner guy has been replace by a Russian, Chinese or Indian guy. I am suggesting they do not have the capability, and perhaps the desire, to retire on Phuket, buying property, as those from the west. They come from emerging economies, not western economies. Salaries, work conditions, Governmnet benefits etc are not as developed. So, many of them can't, therefore don't, buy property here.

In my opinion, basically, the way the "influential people" on Phuket are running the place, it will, if it has not already, have a negative impact on the property market here in the future.

It's a complex issue, but I hope that clarifies my thoughts for you.

Russians have plenty of capability to buy holiday homes/second homes as do the Chinese. In fact most markets are all looking at the Chinese as the next source of income/sales. I know of various projects that are almost exclusively only marketing to the Chinese. Royal Carribean are even surprisingly sending their newest flagship cruise liner to run out of china. Honestly I don't mean to be rude but I really don't think you have a grasp of the current market conditions in terms of tourists and/or property sales.

Why is tourism booming here if it has such a poor reputation as you have said? The tourists must be sat there in China according to your thinking saying..."I know a crap place to go on holiday....lets book there!! Woohoo"

thank makes a lot of sense to me. So many different int'l airlines now with bookings to Phuket and direct flights from China (Chongqing), HK, Malaysia (KL), Russia (Moscow) and Singapore besides all the flights running through Bangkok.

With all the comments about types of people and different levels of property (high to low end) and locations, my view is it is probably different depending on what you are looking at. I live in HK and have seen all types of mainland chinese buy, rent, transit through, etc in HK.

I am ABC expat and my wife is HK Chinese. Hope people don't think we will ruin it for them by buying a villa or something in Phuket.

[usasia8888]

What is the percentage of Chinese on package tours to rich, independent Chinese tourist?

The same question for the Russians.

I don't think even in HK we track that acurately. Maybe it would be easier if Phuket kept statistics but they appear to not even track villas, condos, land etc which were sold so it would be much easier to track. I know the question was asked of Phuket however, I do have to say most of the Russians who come to HK are usually wealthy or work for strong financially back companies, business people or the government. But except for shopping in HK, not many people come for tourist holiday like they must in Thailand in generally and Phuket in specific.

[Peterocket]

What is the percentage of Chinese on package tours to rich, independent Chinese tourist?

The same question for the Russians.

If 1% of the Chinese coming here are independent wealthy business people possibly interested in property purchase how many would that be?

I bet a lot of them are far more affluent than the Caucasian stone table crew that have been amassing here over the years.

[KarenBravo]

No, I'd say if 1% are wealthy, then 1% of that 1% may be interested in buying property.

The Chinese much prefer HK, and Singapore for buying property and are a much better investment opportunity than Phuket.

[LivinginKata]

No, I'd say if 1% are wealthy, then 1% of that 1% may be interested in buying property.

The Chinese much prefer HK, and Singapore for buying property and are a much better investment opportunity than Phuket.

That would increase dramatically if the much dreamed of Casino was ever allowed on Phuket Island

[NamKangMan]

There are hundreds, if not thousands of properties on the market for sale here. That should say something to you.

Some have been on the market for years - and that is not an exaggeration, years.

Many of these properties will not sell because the listing price is too high, most probably because the owner originally paid too higher price for the property when they bought it.

The land the property is sitting on most likely has a 30 year land lease, so is diminishing year by year, and who know what will happen when year 30 arrives.

They keep building and building and building here, so there will definately be, if not already, an oversupply of property on the market, pushing sales and rents down.

Phuket property boomed in the late 80's to early 90's - a lot of these properties will have their 30 years land leases up soon. It will be interesting to see what happens.

In my opinion, I think you will see downward pressure on the property market here.

If you chose to buy, do so without any expectation there will be any appreciation of the asset, in fact, you should expect depreciation.

You should just look at your purchase as a lifestyle decision, rather than an investment. The trouble with that is, as there is no town planning here, you never really know what will become of the area you chose to live in.

Well surely a new owner will put the land into someone else's name, and then make a new 30yr lease. In other words you simple start again, that's what I did.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

What if you bought 29 years ago, and next year, you are asked to pay again, at a much higher price, and can not afford it - you put the property on the market, therefore, more property on the market for sale, thus further downward pressure on prices.

A lot of these properties will soon be at the end of their 30 year lease and it will be interesting to see what will happen.

[Peterocket]

No, I'd say if 1% are wealthy, then 1% of that 1% may be interested in buying property.

The Chinese much prefer HK, and Singapore for buying property and are a much better investment opportunity than Phuket.

Although I don't agree with your figures in terms of the number of wealthy Chinese coming to Phuket how many is 1% of 1%?

(I'll give you a hint: It is a lot of property investors)

[NamKangMan]

Don't mix up the two.

In my opinion, the property market on Phuket will devalue, due to the many reasons I have stated in previous posts, but mainly due to oversupply.

My comment on Russians, Chinese and Indians being the new demographic of tourists to Phuket, and the fact a high percentage of these are the cheaper package holiday tourists, is not a great advertisement for the tourism industry on Phuket.

Where there is a small "cross over" is the ones that holiday here, may love the place and retire here one day, buying property, but the percentage of those who can afford to, when compared to the western market, is much smaller, and the fact the western tourist market is shrinking on Phuket, simply means less people with the money to buy here in the future.

Put very simply, in the past, tourism (people holidaying here) was an indirect advertisement for the Phuket property market and many returned for holidays here, year after year, and then went on to retire here, purchasing property.

With the new demographic of tourists coming to Phuket, being lower end package holiday makers, a high percentage of these tourists will never be able to afford to retire here, and they are Russian, Chinese and Indian.

So, to give a basic example, due to a lot of the negative publicity Phuket receives, a 60 year old western guy holidays on Samui. He loves the place, and holidays there a few times more. He then starts looking at property, as he is retiring soon. He buys and retires on Samui. In the past, he may have come to Phuket, and eventually, the Phuket property market may have seen his money. Phuket's increasing poor reputation has taken one less western buyer out of the property market.

The "poor reputation" I am talking about is not the nationality of the tourists coming here. It's the lack of infastructure, the service, lack of transport, pricing, crime, drugs, scams, traffic, pollution, policing, accidents etc etc.

Now, that westerner guy has been replace by a Russian, Chinese or Indian guy. I am suggesting they do not have the capability, and perhaps the desire, to retire on Phuket, buying property, as those from the west. They come from emerging economies, not western economies. Salaries, work conditions, Governmnet benefits etc are not as developed. So, many of them can't, therefore don't, buy property here.

In my opinion, basically, the way the "influential people" on Phuket are running the place, it will, if it has not already, have a negative impact on the property market here in the future.

It's a complex issue, but I hope that clarifies my thoughts for you.

Russians have plenty of capability to buy holiday homes/second homes as do the Chinese. In fact most markets are all looking at the Chinese as the next source of income/sales. I know of various projects that are almost exclusively only marketing to the Chinese. Royal Carribean are even surprisingly sending their newest flagship cruise liner to run out of china. Honestly I don't mean to be rude but I really don't think you have a grasp of the current market conditions in terms of tourists and/or property sales.

Why is tourism booming here if it has such a poor reputation as you have said? The tourists must be sat there in China according to your thinking saying..."I know a crap place to go on holiday....lets book there!! Woohoo"

The OP asked for property forecasts.

I've given mine, and the reasons why. I'm not saying what I predict will definately happen, that's why it's called a forecast. Only time will tell what will happen with the property market here, and what nationalities are actually going to be driving that market. My forecast actually goes beyond 2015 and is more long term.

All you have done is criticize my forecast.

I'd be happy to hear yours, and your reasons why you forecast as you do.

The reason why tourist numbers are up is because the TAT are marketing cheap package holidays to emerging economies. The tourist numbers maybe up, but I'll bet the baht turn over is down, way down.

Also, many people using Phuket International Airport as an entry point to Thailand, due to cheap flights, but holidaying elsewhere in Thailand.

Then you have "tourists" like myself, getting counted anywhere from 4 to 12 times a year as a "tourist."

[NamKangMan]

What is the percentage of Chinese on package tours to rich, independent Chinese tourist?

The same question for the Russians.

I don't think even in HK we track that acurately. Maybe it would be easier if Phuket kept statistics but they appear to not even track villas, condos, land etc which were sold so it would be much easier to track. I know the question was asked of Phuket however, I do have to say most of the Russians who come to HK are usually wealthy or work for strong financially back companies, business people or the government. But except for shopping in HK, not many people come for tourist holiday like they must in Thailand in generally and Phuket in specific.

They can't even "track" their land here as there is that much encroachment.

What was a National Park today - is a resort next year.

[NamKangMan]

No, I'd say if 1% are wealthy, then 1% of that 1% may be interested in buying property.

The Chinese much prefer HK, and Singapore for buying property and are a much better investment opportunity than Phuket.

Spot on KB. That's where I am coming from.

Those percentages were a lot higher when the western tourist market was thriving here.

Edited May 19, 2014 by NamKangMan

[NamKangMan]

No, I'd say if 1% are wealthy, then 1% of that 1% may be interested in buying property.

The Chinese much prefer HK, and Singapore for buying property and are a much better investment opportunity than Phuket.

That would increase dramatically if the much dreamed of Casino was ever allowed on Phuket Island

The Chinese have Macau. Basically, the Las Vegas of Asia.

I'd be surprised if one casino on Phuket can compete with a city of casios.