thicky question. If the Baht is devalued..

[fish fingers]

does this mean if I bought a condo recently (yes) , that i will lose out?

[sustento]

No. You'll still be the owner of a condo.

[fish fingers]

what I mean is, if the baht is devalued, I take it all my thai assets (property and thai baht in account) will be then worth x amount less against Sterling?

Edited May 24, 2014 by fish fingers

[ukrules]

If the Baht continues to devalue it just means you could buy another identical condo for less USD / GBP even though the Baht amount would be the same.

As you recently purchased the property you probably want to use it for some time to come so I wouldn't worry too much about it.

I have no plans on ever purchasing property here, certainly not at the prices they're being sold for now.

Also if the forthcoming immigration crackdown goes as far as I suspect it will there's going to be plenty of cheap properties on the market in the coming years.

[Spoonman]

1 baht will be 1 baht no matter how much it devalues. what is the question ?

[KittenKong]

what I mean is, if the baht is devalued, I take it all my thai assets (property and thai baht in account) will be then worth x amount less against Sterling?

Yes. This has already happened. Anyone who bought a condo a year ago using funds imported at 46B to the GBP is already sitting on a loss of just under 20% with the Baht at around 55 to the GBP.

I think it is a good idea to assume from the outset that any purchase of Thai property is potentially a 100% loss. I certainly did, and I have absolutely no expectation of my condo ever showing a profit. Most prices here are much too high (probably 30-50% more than they are really worth), there is no shortage of either built properties or undeveloped land, and much of the demand is either fuelled by credit or by people attempting to shelter capital for dubious reasons. Add to that the fact that quite a lot of property is owned by foreigners via company structures that are not exactly legal, and by visa runners who have no valid right to stay and work here. Personally I see downsides everywhere and no obvious way up.

[Berkshire]

what I mean is, if the baht is devalued, I take it all my thai assets (property and thai baht in account) will be then worth x amount less against Sterling?

And if the baht gets stronger, then it would be worth x more, wouldn't it? Surely you can plug the numbers into a spreadsheet and figure out exactly how much it's worth in Sterling at any given exchange rate. Do you even have to ask? If you're going to lose sleep every time the currency exchange rate changes, you're going to be living a miserable existence. And frankly, I'd be more worried about the resale market collapsing if the property bubble burst.

If you're living in your condo, none of this matters. It's always going to be worth exactly what you paid for it.

[ukrules]

And frankly, I'd be more worried about the resale market collapsing if the property bubble burst.

I think it's more a matter of when rather than if...

[JaiLai]

If the Baht continues to devalue it just means you could buy another identical condo for less USD / GBP even though the Baht amount would be the same.

As you recently purchased the property you probably want to use it for some time to come so I wouldn't worry too much about it.

I have no plans on ever purchasing property here, certainly not at the prices they're being sold for now.

Also if the forthcoming immigration crackdown goes as far as I suspect it will there's going to be plenty of cheap properties on the market in the coming years.

What crackdowns?? Did they not try this a few years back and gave up?

[Naam]

If the Baht continues to devalue it just means you could buy another identical condo for less USD / GBP even though the Baht amount would be the same.

As you recently purchased the property you probably want to use it for some time to come so I wouldn't worry too much about it.

I have no plans on ever purchasing property here, certainly not at the prices they're being sold for now.

Also if the forthcoming immigration crackdown goes as far as I suspect it will there's going to be plenty of cheap properties on the market in the coming years.

What crackdowns?? Did they not try this a few years back and gave up?

there was never a crack-down except the cracks in the skulls of some people.

[samran]

what I mean is, if the baht is devalued, I take it all my thai assets (property and thai baht in account) will be then worth x amount less against Sterling?

And if the baht gets stronger, then it would be worth x more, wouldn't it? Surely you can plug the numbers into a spreadsheet and figure out exactly how much it's worth in Sterling at any given exchange rate. Do you even have to ask? If you're going to lose sleep every time the currency exchange rate changes, you're going to be living a miserable existence. And frankly, I'd be more worried about the resale market collapsing if the property bubble burst.

If you're living in your condo, none of this matters. It's always going to be worth exactly what you paid for it.

Spreadsheet! Steady on there mate!

[ukrules]

If the Baht continues to devalue it just means you could buy another identical condo for less USD / GBP even though the Baht amount would be the same.

As you recently purchased the property you probably want to use it for some time to come so I wouldn't worry too much about it.

I have no plans on ever purchasing property here, certainly not at the prices they're being sold for now.

Also if the forthcoming immigration crackdown goes as far as I suspect it will there's going to be plenty of cheap properties on the market in the coming years.

What crackdowns?? Did they not try this a few years back and gave up?

Lets see how the situation is in 3-6 months from now.

[Berkshire]

what I mean is, if the baht is devalued, I take it all my thai assets (property and thai baht in account) will be then worth x amount less against Sterling?

And if the baht gets stronger, then it would be worth x more, wouldn't it? Surely you can plug the numbers into a spreadsheet and figure out exactly how much it's worth in Sterling at any given exchange rate. Do you even have to ask? If you're going to lose sleep every time the currency exchange rate changes, you're going to be living a miserable existence. And frankly, I'd be more worried about the resale market collapsing if the property bubble burst.

If you're living in your condo, none of this matters. It's always going to be worth exactly what you paid for it.

Spreadsheet! Steady on there mate!

Am I showing my age? Is it called something else nowadays? I was just trying to point out the silliness of the OP's question. It's like asking "if I were to piss into the wind, will I get wet?" The OP should understand, however, that there would be a whole lot of happy expats if the baht were to crash. I doubt that would happen as the Thai economy seems to be pretty resilient to almost any political craziness.

[namdocmai]

Yes you will loose money.

The condo's being built at the moment have to be sold before they start building. If the problems in Thailand go on for a while i wonder who will still do a payment on a new condo. Then it can be over with all the construction pretty fast.

In BKK is a whole row of 10! skyscrapers from 30 floors high! that are built but never finished. They are near Muang thong thani area. I guess we will see more of those ghost buildings soon.

[samran]

what I mean is, if the baht is devalued, I take it all my thai assets (property and thai baht in account) will be then worth x amount less against Sterling?

And if the baht gets stronger, then it would be worth x more, wouldn't it? Surely you can plug the numbers into a spreadsheet and figure out exactly how much it's worth in Sterling at any given exchange rate. Do you even have to ask? If you're going to lose sleep every time the currency exchange rate changes, you're going to be living a miserable existence. And frankly, I'd be more worried about the resale market collapsing if the property bubble burst.

If you're living in your condo, none of this matters. It's always going to be worth exactly what you paid for it.

Spreadsheet! Steady on there mate!

Am I showing my age? Is it called something else nowadays? I was just trying to point out the silliness of the OP's question. It's like asking "if I were to piss into the wind, will I get wet?" The OP should understand, however, that there would be a whole lot of happy expats if the baht were to crash. I doubt that would happen as the Thai economy seems to be pretty resilient to almost any political craziness.

I was just being sarcastic. Actually agree.

Seems though two columns in a spreadsheet might be a bit beyond the OP.

[thaibeachlovers]

If you bought the condo to live in, it shouldn't make a difference.

If you bought it as an investment 5555555555555555555.

[thaibeachlovers]

what I mean is, if the baht is devalued, I take it all my thai assets (property and thai baht in account) will be then worth x amount less against Sterling?

And if the baht gets stronger, then it would be worth x more, wouldn't it? Surely you can plug the numbers into a spreadsheet and figure out exactly how much it's worth in Sterling at any given exchange rate. Do you even have to ask? If you're going to lose sleep every time the currency exchange rate changes, you're going to be living a miserable existence. And frankly, I'd be more worried about the resale market collapsing if the property bubble burst.

If you're living in your condo, none of this matters. It's always going to be worth exactly what you paid for it.

Spreadsheet! Steady on there mate!

Am I showing my age? Is it called something else nowadays? I was just trying to point out the silliness of the OP's question. It's like asking "if I were to piss into the wind, will I get wet?" The OP should understand, however, that there would be a whole lot of happy expats if the baht were to crash. I doubt that would happen as the Thai economy seems to be pretty resilient to almost any political craziness.

<there would be a whole lot of happy expats if the baht were to crash.>

Count me in that number. The years after the Asian crash were bliss for me, till inflation and a rising baht ruined it ( being selfish I know, but whatever ).

[fish fingers]

I'm not asking about if the baht were to crash, simply if the interim government decides to devalue the baht. I guess that means it will buy less foreign currency? I exchanged at 54.5 to £1, luckily not when it was 44.

Berkshire, I'm thinking a baht 'crash' will mean more baht for our sterling, whereas a devaluation is something else entirely. But seeing as you know everything, please correct me.

Edited May 25, 2014 by fish fingers

[sotsira]

OP, let's keep it simple and call it,

Strengthening of the baht or weakening of the baht.

If you bought at 54bt to the £1 and the baht weakened to lets say 60bt to the £1

then you would be losing value on your purchase.

On the other hand,

If the baht strengthened to lets say 50bt to the £1 then you would be gaining value

on your purchase.

[kingbuffalo]

I'm not asking about if the baht were to crash, simply if the interim government decides to devalue the baht. I guess that means it will buy less foreign currency? I exchanged at 54.5 to £1, luckily not when it was 44.

Berkshire, I'm thinking a baht 'crash' will mean more baht for our sterling, whereas a devaluation is something else entirely. But seeing as you know everything, please correct me.

Dont worry to much about Berkshire and his angry put down comments. He is really just a angry man because of the way his wife treats him. He in turn takes it out on people here.

[JAS21]

Yes you will loose money.

The condo's being built at the moment have to be sold before they start building. If the problems in Thailand go on for a while i wonder who will still do a payment on a new condo. Then it can be over with all the construction pretty fast.

In BKK is a whole row of 10! skyscrapers from 30 floors high! that are built but never finished. They are near Muang thong thani area. I guess we will see more of those ghost buildings soon.

If you mean all the 'white' coloured buildings that you can see for miles ... they are being re-furbished ... started about a year ago. Haven't been past for a while so don't know if some are now occupied though. But Yes, something must burst sooner or later.

[crazykopite]

I would hate to,lose my investment but when I purchased my property I purchased it with the view that one day I might lose it so I spent what I thought was a reasonable amount as an accepted loss. The worse scenario would be if forced to leave the country I would or could at least rent it and get some form of return, there are plenty of middle earner Thai's out there looking to rent nice properties if the rent is acceptable. I have no plans to leave the kingdom except for when the man upstairs decides it is my time in life to make that permanent visit to my local temple and once gone I will not be in any position to worry about anything. I always live today as if it is my last !!

[KittenKong]

Whenever I feel like I'm in danger of being caught up in the Pattaya condo hype I go for a drive along Jomtien Beach Road and on to Na-Jomtien. In doing so I pass several skeletons of large buildings that were never finished during previous crashes, or that were finished and have since gone to rack and ruin. Drive on to Ban Chang and Rayong and there are several more.

[ukrules]

Whenever I feel like I'm in danger of being caught up in the Pattaya condo hype I go for a drive along Jomtien Beach Road and on to Na-Jomtien. In doing so I pass several skeletons of large buildings that were never finished during previous crashes, or that were finished and have since gone to rack and ruin. Drive on to Ban Chang and Rayong and there are several more.

I've seen this happen in Ireland when the bubble burst over there. They started to build about 700+ houses in stages over a number of years. The first people moved in as stage 1 was completed. I rented a house in one of these places a while back, it was pretty nice, stage 1 was fully complete. The builders moved onto the next stage.

Then one day work stopped, they just abandoned the place. Half built houses were everywhere. They didn't come back.

This is what happens when the bubble bursts.

[JaiLai]

If the Baht continues to devalue it just means you could buy another identical condo for less USD / GBP even though the Baht amount would be the same.

As you recently purchased the property you probably want to use it for some time to come so I wouldn't worry too much about it.

I have no plans on ever purchasing property here, certainly not at the prices they're being sold for now.

Also if the forthcoming immigration crackdown goes as far as I suspect it will there's going to be plenty of cheap properties on the market in the coming years.

What crackdowns?? Did they not try this a few years back and gave up?

there was never a crack-down except the cracks in the skulls of some people.

I thought a few year back they tried to enforce 90 days allowed in country in any given 180 period on a tourist visa?

What's the difference in "crackdowns" and "change in visa conditions"?

[Globalist]

To the OP: This question has been asked recently, and many people instantly assume that you would always lose out.

The general answer is: It depends!

To be precise, it totally depends on your condo. If your condo is attractive for international investors, it will be less dependent on THB fluctuations vs main world currencies such as GPB.

Most condos in Thailand do not belong to this category. But there are those that do.

Two examples are 1) high end condos in top locations mainly in BKK (but some in Pattaya), and 2) reasonably well-located condos in Pattaya. These categories may be attractive as international investment assets. In the extreme case, one can say that they are actually not priced in THB, but rather in a basket of Euro, Rubels, USD, SGD, CHY, JPY (assuming buyers having such "home currencies").

On the other hand, the value of also these assets can of course be affected by political unrest, economic downturns etc, but when/if that improves, the value would come back (as measured in world currencies).

Edited May 25, 2014 by Globalist

[choochoo]

No offense. But the only reason to buy condos here is to live in them.

I just dont see the value in investing right now! Not at rents the condos get rented at.

So it the baht rate is secondary to the fundamentals. Guy you going to lose without baht fluktuation. is the likely scenario.

Edited May 25, 2014 by choochoo

[Globalist]

No offense. But the only reason to buy condos here is to live in them.

Yes that may absolutely be true for your particular situation, and indeed for many if not most people on TV.

But I was adressing the OP's question considering the real market situation for certain asset classes, and you would be surprised how many foreign "buy-to-let" (and "buy-to-appreciate") investors there are in Thailand. Most of them are from Russia, China, Japan, and Singapore.

(The biggest such investors are of course middle- to upper-class Thais themselves, but that is irrelevant to the OP's question, as only the 49% foreign quota constitute fully internationally traded property assets.)

Edited May 25, 2014 by Globalist

[KittenKong]

But I was adressing the OP's question considering the real market situation for certain asset classes, and you would be surprised how many foreign "buy-to-let" (and "buy-to-appreciate") investors there are in Thailand. Most of them are from Russia, China, Japan, and Singapore.

Indeed. And most of them are keen to get the money out of their home economies, for varied and mostly dubious reasons.

[Globalist]

But I was adressing the OP's question considering the real market situation for certain asset classes, and you would be surprised how many foreign "buy-to-let" (and "buy-to-appreciate") investors there are in Thailand. Most of them are from Russia, China, Japan, and Singapore.

Indeed. And most of them are keen to get the money out of their home economies, for varied and mostly dubious reasons.

Sure, especially from the first two countries ;-) .

Speaking of money laundring, I find it a bit silly that you cannot deposit £5,000 cash in a bank in the UK without severe questions about the origin being asked, while there seems to be no problem whatsoever for foreigners to buy houses in central London for tens of millions of £ from surely dubious foreign origins (Or for that matter, buying Manchester City Ltd...)

Edited May 25, 2014 by Globalist