Ex-PMs Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra to establish government in exile

[slipperylobster]

Thailand ...Hub of Governments (both in and out)

[KOZMO]

Government in exile is a fantasy. Even so, I don't think I'd want my lawyer spouting off about it while I'm in custody of the military.

They got Yingluck, now keep her!!! in jail where she belongs!!~!

[rickirs]

What would a Govt in exile be able to accomplish?

It depends on whether the government in exile gets international recognition and support. For example, should the UN/ASEAN recognize the government in exile, only its administration of the nation will be recognized. That might mean that coup and post-coup trade agreements, court actions, diplomacy, laws, etc. will not be recognized by the foreign community. Any international negotiations regarding Thailand would go through the government in exile and the Thailand domestic government would be ignored.

At the extreme, foreign embassies in Thailand might close and any Thailand embassies that do not recognize the government in exile may be evicted. Given some nations favor chaos in the internal affairs of other countries for their own national agendas, a Thailand government in exile might serve political leverage and concessions from the coup and post-coup government.

At this juncture it's too soon to judge the effectiveness of a Thai government in exile. If the Junta moves quickly to restore the constitution with attendent reforms, and a fair and open electroral system to re-establish a democratic process to the people, a government in exile would have little impact. But if the Junta significantly delays restoration of democracy, ie., 2 or more years, it could lend more legitimacy to the government in exile.

A case in point. After the elected President Morsi granted himself unlimited powers to "protect" the nation, and the power to legislate without judicial oversight or review of his acts), the Egyptian military overthrew the government on July 3, 2013 and suspended the constitution and appointed a national leader. New elections were announced in March 2014 to be held the end of May 2014. Given a timespan of less than one year from coup to new elections, it doesn't seem the international community has reacted too harshly with the coup leadership, albeit reduction in foreign aid and "stern warnings" for restoration of democracy.

So if the Thai military coup leaders follow a similar path to maintain nonviolent national civility and produce a constitution that does not detract from a fair and open democratic process, then there is a likelyhood of muted international criticism if it announces new elections within a year of its coup. Failure by the military coup leaders to follow that path may result in greater legitimacy to the government in exile and a national disaster for the Thai people.

[GoodThaiGirl]

Is'nt it heavenly not to have to watch and listen to the 'mouth from the south' for a few days. At least one very good thing has come from this coup.

we still got you though..

[esprit]

Good, at last some positive news.

The Bangkok elitist military royalist oligarchy will now have to deal with the government in exile on a daily basis while it sends out to its supporters (the majority of the population) information on how to resist this facist takeover.

The generals think their proxies can run the country successfully even after two years of Abbhisit's efforts failed.

This is just adding more fuel to the fire for PTP's supporters.

I would not be at all surprised if there was a civil war in Thailand and the Reds slaughter the lot of them.

I think you may not be too far off the mark. The protests against the coup already seem to be gaining momentum. Provided the protesters remain peaceful, the military will be boxed into a corner and the more likely scenario will be the removal of General P by the so called "watermelon" generals.

Did you accidentally smoke your socks?

NO! but i think that you have got yours pulled over your head and down over your eyes.

Quite agree and the sooner the secret commi Prayuth comes out of the closet and he gets treated to a Mussolini type reception the sooner the Thais can get back to what they are good at - being very friendly and adorable people who just want to live their lives.

[oldsailor35]

i posted this on the 13th January this year.

In my 35 years of living here I've watched the poor become politically aware and that's why they vote for PTP.

Democrats are just the old clique, recycled again and again.

Every General when he retires moves straight into the businesses he cultivated through graft and favours during his time in the forces.

It has always been.

That is why the military won't let go of their grip on the throat of the Thai people.

The old families from earliest times control 90% of the economy.

Why would they let the poor spoil their party?

PTP and Thaksin recognised this and brought policies to give them a better go.

The yellows, Suthep and his ilk are just puppets for the real power in Thailand.

Thaksin was an upstart who didn't want to play in their game.

Reminds me a little of Anwar Ibrahim's situation in Malaysia.

He didn't want to play by Mahathir Mohammed's rules so trumped up charges were used to silence him.

Thaksin wasn't a cleanskin, show me one Thai politician who is, but when it suited the Dems, they dragged out the corruption mantra to demonise him.

And all the little public servants in their offices were told to get down to the airport in a yellow shirt and shut it down.

This is as transparent a game as one could wish to see.

I doubt whether the people will ever have real political power here until the military are told to do as they are instructed by a democratically elected government.

As seen in most Western democracies.

That is why Suthep came out with that outrageous idea of an unelected "people's council", they don't want an election, they can't win one.

So the tanks will be rumbling down the streets very soon.

How's that for a prediction?

YEP! and you did what so many are unable to do. That is to get the facts right ! congratulations.

[Morch]

This is shows how much Thaksin cares about Thailand! And any country recognizing a exile government formed by Thaksin or anyone else are not looking to the best for Thailand!

There would never be peace talks!!!

The best thing for the police/army or who ever have the power is to send out a Interpol arrest warrant for Thaksin's arrest after all he is a convicted fugitive!

UN, US and EU please give Thailand a chance, if you would recognize a Thai government in exile led by Thaksin or anyone else then the peace process for Thailand this would become a new Iraq or Yugoslavia . The only way to get this country back on track is to let the peace come from within, many of the Thai people want this and the rest need to accept it. Otherwise there will be no peace in this country for many years to come!

Peace talk means elections now.

There was an attempt of the army to conducts talks, which appeared a complite hox, just to lure in political leaders and detain them. A trick from history books, stalin comes to mind.

Yingluck was trying reçonciliation, set up a commision, democrats declined to participate.

She tried an amnesty bill, to start from the scratch. Answer from democrats was resigning from the parliament en masse and joing street mob.

She tried to run an election, democrats boycotted and blokaded polling stations.

Looks, like there can't be talks between the majority of population, democratically minded, and the minority, who use pover of military to cling to power.

Army has nothing to do with peace talks, an opposite would be true - they are the driving force behind authocratic politics.

The world won't be buying your peace story, you should realise it for the last 7 months.

Something for you to think

The so called reconciliation process was a farce with unilateral attempts by the government to ram through

legislation at the same time.

The Amnesty Bill included many offenses having naught to do with reconciliation, but pretty much expunging

any wrong doing, including criminal and corruption charges. There was nationwide uproar about it, as you

will recall, a lot of it coming from the red-shirt camp. The Democrat Party leadership could have actually

personally benefited from the Bill, as it would have made the 2010 connected charges against them go away.

That is without going into the details of how the Amnesty Bill legislation was conducted...not a great moment

in Thai parliamentary history.

The PTP government did not have a popular majority, just a parliamentary majority. There is some difference

there. Having a majority by itself, does not mean one side can do whatever he wishes.

It can be said that non of the sides was vying for peace. Not the PDRC and not the government.

[Igor]

I don't know why somebody with excellent marksman skills isn't sent to Dubai ,,,

This what I've been wandering for quite some time ,,

Well, I certainly am uncomforatble with anyone on this forum advocating assasination. Of course, I'm also against a democratically elected leader being deposed by a violent minority. Maybe I'm just old fashioned, The military says they want to restore democracy as soon as possible. Poop! If that were true, they would never have ousted a sitting government, elected by a wide majority IIRC, just weeks before an election. And the first thing on their agenda? Pay off the rice farmers. Smacks of vote buying, to me. Now, before they "allow" another election, they're going to rewrite the consitution which they, themselves, scribed less than a decade ago. And when they finally do permit an election, what will they do if a Thaksin crony wins again? Not a difficult outcome to foresee. A short step then to a permanent military government,

[DekDaeng]

Not all Dem supporters are rich, but most dream that they are and allow themselves to be brainwashed into supporting their superiors.

You seem to be implying that this could not be said of the 'others'.

A grave mistake.

[Trouble]

Well, I think he has just assured an extended period of detention for all PTP members currently in custody, and I now envisage an all-out effort to get KhunT back to Thailand to face the music. This has to be the craziest thing Thaksin has ever set out to do, and it will certainly prove to be his undoing...!!

Don't be too sure it is all that crazy. A government in exile even if recognized by only one or two nations poses problems for the junta. Let's face facts the military has done this twice in a relative short period of time against governments elected by the people. Not exactly the type of things democratic nations are all to eager to except. I am not saying it will work but if the object is to cause the junta embarrassment it could do that, particularly if some of the Thai people rally in its behalf.

[AleG]

I don't think this will happen but if it did this would be difficult for Prayut,Thailand couldn't borrow money without the exile governments say so,laws and a new constitution wouldn't be legal,Thailand would be cut off from the international community. I believe that i read that after the last coup the military spoke to Thaksin asking him not to form an exile government,they were really worried, i can imagine concessions were made for his agreement, money back,passport, maybe ?

I think the Army and powers-that-be are not going to fall for that again, they made concessions to Thaksin before only for him to turn on his (worthless) word. Now it's Thunderdome time.

[templedog]

Yep!!

A nice squeaky-clean, trustworthy government courtesy of one of the biggest family of rogues, cheats, charlatans and evil corrupt parasites on the planet.

Utopia indeed.

I couldn't have said it better.

[valvenus]

Good, at last some positive news.

The Bangkok elitist military royalist oligarchy will now have to deal with the government in exile on a daily basis

Sorry to burst your bubble, but no country has even agreed to host this Shinawatra/Amsterdam government in exile.

That's the positive news as ShinCorp has already fomented enough turmoil.

[scorecard]

Has anybody seen any comment attributing that yingluck has made any such statement, or whether she has after the event, agreed to this arrangement.

Somehow I doubt that she would want any further involvement unless pushed (ordered) to by bb. Maybe wrong.

[Rimbuman]

Is'nt it heavenly not to have to watch and listen to the 'mouth from the south' for a few days. At least one very good thing has come from this coup.

we still got you though..

[transam]

Shouldn't the guy first come clean and return to serve his sentence for corruption to show folk he is the same as any other Thai and do what a judge demands of a citizen found guilty of a crime first.?

[Morch]

I don't think this will happen but if it did this would be difficult for Prayut,Thailand couldn't borrow money without the exile governments say so,laws and a new constitution wouldn't be legal,Thailand would be cut off from the international community. I believe that i read that after the last coup the military spoke to Thaksin asking him not to form an exile government,they were really worried, i can imagine concessions were made for his agreement, money back,passport, maybe ?

Having a government in exile never stopped an incumbent regime from carrying on running a country.

The government in exile may decree that legislation is illegal, but it comes down to how the people

react to it. Words for abroad will not make it unreal.

Borrowing money got nothing to do with having a government in exile. Unless said government in

exile is widely recognized internationally and proper sanctions are in place, nothing to stop the

current regime from heading on. Might be worth remembering that some of the ousted governement

economic policies were found to be less than stellar by quite a few international organizations.

The practical constraints of dealing with a formation of a government in exile are a non-issue

without it getting a broad recognition, and with effective steps taken to curb the regime's actions.

The effect it might have on domestic situation and possible unrest is much more worrying than that.

[templedog]

i posted this on the 13th January this year.

In my 35 years of living here I've watched the poor become politically aware and that's why they vote for PTP.

Democrats are just the old clique, recycled again and again.

Every General when he retires moves straight into the businesses he cultivated through graft and favours during his time in the forces.

It has always been.

That is why the military won't let go of their grip on the throat of the Thai people.

The old families from earliest times control 90% of the economy.

Why would they let the poor spoil their party?

PTP and Thaksin recognised this and brought policies to give them a better go.

The yellows, Suthep and his ilk are just puppets for the real power in Thailand.

Thaksin was an upstart who didn't want to play in their game.

Reminds me a little of Anwar Ibrahim's situation in Malaysia.

He didn't want to play by Mahathir Mohammed's rules so trumped up charges were used to silence him.

Thaksin wasn't a cleanskin, show me one Thai politician who is, but when it suited the Dems, they dragged out the corruption mantra to demonise him.

And all the little public servants in their offices were told to get down to the airport in a yellow shirt and shut it down.

This is as transparent a game as one could wish to see.

I doubt whether the people will ever have real political power here until the military are told to do as they are instructed by a democratically elected government.

As seen in most Western democracies.

That is why Suthep came out with that outrageous idea of an unelected "people's council", they don't want an election, they can't win one.

So the tanks will be rumbling down the streets very soon.

How's that for a prediction?

YEP! and you did what so many are unable to do. That is to get the facts right ! congratulations.

Bobmac,

I agree with a lot of what you say, but let's not forget that Thaksin was/is bringing this country down with massive privatization schemes to empower only his greedy power-lust family. He's siding with the US right now with TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) military bases, oil deals....who knows what else.

Thaksin's pace is unparalleled in Thai history. I believe that the "other" family is quite concerned about his unusually fast paced grab for power. One can't just say, "Oh, but he helped the poor while the Dems have never done anything." As if Thaksin really gives a hoot about the poor....laughable....a billionaire caring for the poor? The Royal family has done more than Thaksin in rural areas with social assistance. The Shiniwatres are NOT the answer to this country's problems, and they are NEITHER a step in the right direction as you seemingly propose. If you are proposing that.

[hawker9000]

Talk about theatre of the absurd. Some slimy lawyer mouths off shrieking about a government in exile, and the thaksinistas immediately begin chanting... Lol. Thaksin isn't just damaged goods. He's untouchable. The "international community" might give him some lip service, but otherwise won't lift a finger or spend any political capital toward international recognition. That's just complete fantasy. Thaksin knows this. His agitations will continue certainly, but the whole govt-in-exile thing is nothing but bombast.....thai style.

[PJcm]

The foolishness of the responses tells me that the respondents know nothing about this country despite spending all that time at a bar sipping some awful beer and ogling the merchandise. You're all well bred democrats I am sure, with a background in hypocrisy.

[chooka]

Government in exile is a fantasy. Even so, I don't think I'd want my lawyer spouting off about it while I'm in custody of the military.

He made this statement last Thursday whilst be interviewed by Australian media, (ABC) his interviewed was beamed live into Thailand via the Australian network. The Thai Military have no power to stop the Australian government T.V station from broadcasting.

And it's very well known how biased the ABC is in Australia. Any chance to possibly cause a problem they will take.

They should be ashamed of themselves for 'reporting' this kind of rubbish.

What possible reason would they have to choose a side in Thai politics? They didn't appear to be on either side. Are the bias because they couldn't get Suthep for an interview?

[londonthai]

Please excuse my English, i am only a simple Thai lady - can you tell me what is the term "complite hox"

Simple, that i don't think you are thai, a lady and that you are only an eglish gentalmen, troll, registered here on the day of bangkok shotdown 13.1.14

[wandasloan]

Has anybody seen any comment attributing that yingluck has made any such statement, or whether she has after the event, agreed to this arrangement.

Somehow I doubt that she would want any further involvement unless pushed (ordered) to by bb. Maybe wrong.

Of course not. Also, no one has seen any comment attributed to Thaksin.

This is 100% Thai Visa-approved rumour-spreading. There is no sign that this Amsterdam person even knows what he is talking about. No Shinawatra has said a thing. No "government in exile" exists. No Thaksin aide, assistant, mouthpiece, spokesman, family member, distant aunt or Skype supplier has commented.

Yet Thai Visa not only approves spreading this hooey on and on and over and over, but actually originated the post! The reason? It was on Robert Amsterdam's website and he read part of it to the ABC. I'm tempted to post some other things on Amsterdam's website just to get up the forum's nose, but I can't be bothered, since the "moderator" would probably follow the rules for once.

I know for a fact that if I made some posts claiming I had the right because "it was on the ABC" I would not just be censored but banned and possibly turned in for lese majeste, if not by Thai Visa then by readers who read the posts before they were erased.

Remember that the next time a "moderator" claims someone is being censored for posting one of those illegal rumours that can put people in jail (theoretically) these days. This whole thread from Post 1 to this one is shameful. It has as much to do with truth and fact as the story about how Thaksin paid Pakistanis to stage the Mumbai massacre to get the hotel reconstruction contracts.

.

[wilgoster]

16 pages of going after a bone thrown out by "a lawyer." People see what they want to see and few will take a critical second look at this truly unattributed story. Curb your enthusiasm, people, this was a planted piece intended to do exactly what it has done, and you are (mostly) all unwitting accomplices. "A Lawyer", indeed. Get over it.

[wandasloan]

Please excuse my English, i am only a simple Thai lady - can you tell me what is the term "complite hox"

Simple, that i don't think you are thai, a lady and that you are only an eglish gentalmen, troll, registered here on the day of bangkok shotdown 13.1.14

A straight line masquerading as an outraged post. You don't see that every day.

.

[binjalin]

This government will have more legitimacy than the military junta, hated, not endorsed, even the senate speaker thrown away as as body to appoint an interim PM.

This government will be a focus point for the opposition in the country, organising funds, equipment, printing publications.

And what if they are endorsed after a while?

And what if the second one, who escaped to the uk, endorses them, as the only hope of returning to thailand?

Governments on exile are known from ww2, de gaulle, czekoslavakian, polish and other governments in london

With the head of state operating freely, the government in exile will have no legitimacy at all.

Kim Jong-Un and Mugabe operate freely so that's not a recommendation!

[orientalsf]

I am so sorry this man continues to put himself above the Thai people. He must know how hurtful he causing the this country. He has enough money, just let go.

[FangFerang]

This is the worst news since the mess began. Yingluck is poised to become the "Thai Aang Yan Su Kyi". Here comes the foreign interference, and much worse.

I can hear the new U2 song now.....

Crap. If you have a shred of humanity you should shed a tear for what is to come.

This sucks. Those of you who think this is less than a declaration of conflict are wearing blinders.

What a poisonous thing to do in the name of power.

[diarmuidOGW]

I thought the government was in exile since he bolted ..............or is there a paralell universe???

Which would mean more greedy,ugly scumbags.............

[Basil B]

Cancel his passports.

Break off diplomatic ties with any country that allows him to continue political activities that would result in unrest in Thailand.

Secretariat all his family assets in Thailand.

Investigate him, his family, his cronies, etc. for financial irregularities and prosecute them for graft.