Decline in tourist arrivals?

[WinnieTheKhwai]

My wife has a tourism related business on the side and is beginning to see some cancellations due to the coup, the continuing curfew/martial law and more countries now actually advising against all travel to Thailand that isn't strictly necessary.

Does anyone else begin to see this? (Asking specifically to people with first-hand exposure to a tourism related business, not a casual observation of barstools filled.)

Long term I think the prospects are actually better for tourism, specifically because it's now very unlikely that the ex-government clique will be allowed to return, which would see an end to populist hand-outs, further minimum wage increases and other free entitlements that discourage actually working for normal pay. Thailand needs to stay affordable so the current hiccup is objecively worth it in the long run from a business perspective.

[true blue]

in other words keep the peasents down, or just give them enough money so they have to come back to work on monday

[Gonzo the Face]

in other words keep the peasents down, or just give them enough money so they have to come back to work on monday

would you provide a better interpretation of your statement please with how it relates to the level of tourism

Edited June 2, 2014 by Gonzo the Face

[cmsally]

Tourism is definitely down. But I am actually surprised to see any tourists at all given the situation.

However majority of tourists seem to be Chinese, I'm not too sure if they are aware of whats going on !

Even people who come regularly and can put up with the various "upheavals" are staying away . OK maybe not all but I personally know of half a dozen of these who should have come next month.

[Thailand]

Hardly surprising, whatever way you look had it a Thailand has had a coup and is now under undemocratic military rule for up to a year, maybe!

Most countries have rightly advised their citizens not to go to Thailand, they would be foolish not to if not even liable in some way.

There are plenty of other options for travelers in the region and I just wonder how many more times can Thailand, resilient as they seem to be,recover from yet another catastrophic set back.

[mamborobert]

Please excuse the semi ramble...

Would not that twice democratically elected ex government clique stand just as much chance as getting elected again (or a new party with similar policies) given previous experience, unless you are going to change the whole concept of democracy (ie a country vote is worth a sixth of a Bangkok vote).

There are still many businesses and day workers that do not get the recent mandated wage......that's before we talk about Burmese and Cambodians.

As far as tourism is concerned I know in Australia there has been a surge of cancellations for Thailand which has been a boom for Bali (until recent volcanic issue). Tourists bookings for the July school holidays (in Australia) have surged towards Bali at the expense of Thailand.

I personally think the best days of Chiang Mai tourism are now long gone and it will remain as a place you tick of that you went to for a few days at best. Burma, Lao, Cambodia are all opening up. Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Phil are being better promoted and more stable...and "new". Having traveled to a few of these countries recently it struck me how woefully unprepared Thailand is for Asean EC next year (in English levels for example)...the coup not having elections till late 2015 at this stage will not help integration (there's a word Thais will love).

Asean EC also holds another danger for Thailand on the labour numbers and cheap salary front. Right now Thailand utilises Burmese and Cambodian labour for some sector work (building and some tourism). Soon these peoples will be able to go to other Asean countries and get far better salary and conditions that they do in Thailand...just as some Thais now go to Taiwan, Singapore etc. I think Asean EC and a coup and better foreign government promotion/incentives will will see a lot of new export industries (car manufacturing etc) and some old ones relocate away from Thailand (which is the bigger part of Thai GDP than tourism). So to me the GDP (including tourism is shot).....it had gone down in months prior to the coup anyway on general unrest. I think the days of multi national companies buddying up with military juntas are also on the way out with social media and the like so any stability offered there is not universal.

Anyhow...factually bookings from Australia to Thailand (as a whole) are significantly down.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

^ I will say though that a world cup football tends to slow down arrivals from Europe. But actual cancellations is a clearer indication that people are deciding to stay away. (Or have to stay away due to travel advisory related insurance concerns)

[anselpixel]

I have to wonder about those who consider $10 USD a day some sort of outrageous populist gouge of the business class.

If anyone is having to close the doors because of the minimum wage, they need to reassess their business plan.

Thai people earn more than many realize, and 300 baht a day is nobody's idea of real money.

(This in response to the editorializing appended to the OP allegedly regarding tourist bookings.)

I've spoken to a lot of tourists here and on the way since the coup. Not one had a clue what any of it was about, but they all wanted to be reassured they were "safe."

One US booking agency I know about cancelled a group tour of Chiang Mai in October, but it was because not enough participants were interested in the city to make it worthwhile.

Instead, the Thailand leg of the SE Asian tour will be spent entirely in Bangkok.

[Ulysses G.]

If anyone is having to close the doors because of the minimum wage, they need to reassess their business plan.

There a lot of Thai restaurants operating on very small profit margins that would disagree with you. Doubling (?) the minimum wage makes a big difference to them.

[moe666]

There are a lot of Thais who still are not guaranteed the min. wage

[VerbalKint]

anyone got proof for this ?

[eyecatcher]

Contrary to several above comments, we have just had our busiest back to back months in 3yrs.

April and may have been great for us even including at least 6 days last month where we had no customers.

The traditional february surge however was very noticeable, we were down maybe 40% on the previous february and that was due to other countries clamping down on the political situation.

But then all that happened was that they waited a month or so to come back, so Songran was heaving more than ever.

I am never complacent about day to day business but wherever they come from we seem to drop lucky.

....ooh, gotta go another 4000bt just walked in!

[mamborobert]

Just an update from the Oz side that may be of interest related to my earlier post.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/travel/travel-essentials/travel-news/airline-bookings-to-thailand-nosedive-travel-data-reveals-20140602-39cwv.html

[Chiengmaijoe]

Contrary to several above comments, we have just had our busiest back to back months in 3yrs.

April and may have been great for us even including at least 6 days last month where we had no customers.

The traditional february surge however was very noticeable, we were down maybe 40% on the previous february and that was due to other countries clamping down on the political situation.

But then all that happened was that they waited a month or so to come back, so Songran was heaving more than ever.

I am never complacent about day to day business but wherever they come from we seem to drop lucky.

....ooh, gotta go another 4000bt just walked in!

Gloating smugness, how nice.

The topic is clear and precise and your little slap on your own back doesn't answer the question. In any economy, even during recession there will always be businesses that are bucking the trend. However, it is clear that tourist numbers are down and will be for a while. Depending on how things develop I expect it to be down for at least the next four months.

Edited June 2, 2014 by Chiengmaijoe

[northernjohn]

I for the life of me can not understand why people would not come to Thailand for a holiday.

I do understand why the ones who want to drink and carouse all night don't come. But for the rest of them their is in reality no reason not to come.

The problem is the lack of or even trying to understand what is happening in Thailand and the down right refusal to look at how safe people are here. Far safer than in many of the cities in the countries who are warning tourists against Thailand are.

I do how ever admit that the tourism in other countries is rising as many people have been to Thailand often and heard of these other countries and decide to visit them for a change.

Edit

The media misinformation has caused several people from back home to question me about it. I suggest that they might take a look at how unsafe it is in some of their big cities yet no one say's don't go to Chicago or L A. even though you are not as safe there as you are here.

Edited June 2, 2014 by northernjohn

[Sparkles]

Governments around the world are totally predictable when it comes to issuing travel warnings to countries that may have some internal conflict going on.

Its a cover your backside approach ie if something does happen do you don't day we didn't warn you.

Its far safer today in Thailand than it was a few weeks ago as all of us, that live here, know full well.

The smart/experienced traveller of course knows there is never a better time to come to Thailand as the "buy 2 nights get one free" signs are dusted off.

Having said that they are in the minority and the "fear" factor usually wins. I never believe Thai Tourist Authority figures.

I have friend with a GH in town and he has had a few cancellations but one man surveys mean little very little either.

[ZAKY]

My wife has a tourism related business on the side and is beginning to see some cancellations due to the coup, the continuing curfew/martial law and more countries now actually advising against all travel to Thailand that isn't strictly necessary.

Does anyone else begin to see this? (Asking specifically to people with first-hand exposure to a tourism related business, not a casual observation of barstools filled.)

Long term I think the prospects are actually better for tourism, specifically because it's now very unlikely that the ex-government clique will be allowed to return, which would see an end to populist hand-outs, further minimum wage increases and other free entitlements that discourage actually working for normal pay. Thailand needs to stay affordable so the current hiccup is objecively worth it in the long run from a business perspective.

This is true, my wife as well is a tourist guide, she has not been working for the two last months and she is still has no customers around. Many tourist agencies abroad are offering alternatives to their customer to avoid thailand, many insurance companies also reticent to insure.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[WinnieTheKhwai]

I've spoken to a lot of tourists here and on the way since the coup. Not one had a clue what any of it was about, but they all wanted to be reassured they were "safe."

To be fair, I think quite a few Thais also don't realize what it's about. Which may not be a bad thing.

I for the life of me can not understand why people would not come to Thailand for a holiday.

I do understand why the ones who want to drink and carouse all night don't come. But for the rest of them their is in reality no reason not to come.

You can't understand that people change their minds when their government advises them not to go, and their insurance company tells them they won't be covered, and they see images of soldiers in the street, and people being arrested and taken away for holding up a sign or making a gesture?

I'm sure the military has the best intentions, but I wish they considered what all of this looks like to anyone outside of Thailand. (Tourists or investors alike) Some better PR, removing the curfew and not being so obvious about it on the streets would really help.

[ZAKY]

I think that when people hear of military and coup they are scared, in their mind they have a darker picture that the country is at war and and the bombings in the south also contributing to make it more scary

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[quidnunc]

Contrary to several above comments, we have just had our busiest back to back months in 3yrs.

April and may have been great for us even including at least 6 days last month where we had no customers.

The traditional february surge however was very noticeable, we were down maybe 40% on the previous february and that was due to other countries clamping down on the political situation.

But then all that happened was that they waited a month or so to come back, so Songran was heaving more than ever.

I am never complacent about day to day business but wherever they come from we seem to drop lucky.

....ooh, gotta go another 4000bt just walked in!

Gloating smugness, how nice.

The topic is clear and precise and your little slap on your own back doesn't answer the question. In any economy, even during recession there will always be businesses that are bucking the trend. However, it is clear that tourist numbers are down and will be for a while. Depending on how things develop I expect it to be down for at least the next four months.

We've seen this sort of posting from this party before. Some people have a pathological need to be envied by and fancy themselves as superior to anyone, even strangers. It's truly bizarre. Can't imagine people like this are overly burdened with friends.

[northernjohn]

Governments around the world are totally predictable when it comes to issuing travel warnings to countries that may have some internal conflict going on.

Its a cover your backside approach ie if something does happen do you don't day we didn't warn you.

Its far safer today in Thailand than it was a few weeks ago as all of us, that live here, know full well.

The smart/experienced traveller of course knows there is never a better time to come to Thailand as the "buy 2 nights get one free" signs are dusted off.

Having said that they are in the minority and the "fear" factor usually wins. I never believe Thai Tourist Authority figures.

I have friend with a GH in town and he has had a few cancellations but one man surveys mean little very little either.

I think some of them do it to take the spot light off them. There are a lot of not very bright people in the world who hear no elections for a year as the country needs time to get rid of the corruption as a bad thing. We even have people here on Thai Visa who know how bad it is. But for personal reasons either deny it or justify it.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

^ Come on, I didn't read it / take it like that at all. He's just adding counter-weight to the perpetual doom & gloom by the usual coffin dodgers, who also can't see the difference between 'people just like them' visiting, or tourists from any (new) market visiting.

I never got the impression he owns the Shangri La from his posts; just making an honest living and so far doing well; that shouldn't be a hanging offense.

And the bottom line: it's a perfect, on-topc direct answer to the question posed in this topic. I ask: "Does anyone see a decline and/or cancellations" and his direct answer was that the past month was great.". That's helpful.

Edited June 2, 2014 by WinnieTheKhwai

[northernjohn]

I've spoken to a lot of tourists here and on the way since the coup. Not one had a clue what any of it was about, but they all wanted to be reassured they were "safe."

To be fair, I think quite a few Thais also don't realize what it's about. Which may not be a bad thing.

I for the life of me can not understand why people would not come to Thailand for a holiday.

I do understand why the ones who want to drink and carouse all night don't come. But for the rest of them their is in reality no reason not to come.

You can't understand that people change their minds when their government advises them not to go, and their insurance company tells them they won't be covered, and they see images of soldiers in the street, and people being arrested and taken away for holding up a sign or making a gesture?

I'm sure the military has the best intentions, but I wish they considered what all of this looks like to anyone outside of Thailand. (Tourists or investors alike) Some better PR, removing the curfew and not being so obvious about it on the streets would really help.

False reporting is what is hurting us. There have been tourists having a soldier aim a gun at them and having their picture taken of it. All the nonsense that is being reported over seas by the media is isolated cases. Did Thailand warn people not to go to the states when the Schools and theaters were being shot up. No they reported facts and did not try to make it seem like it was happening in the entire nation. Talked to several in North America they have not seen the pictures you speak of. Or heard about arrests. Only in Thailand. Then mostly on red shirt leaning media. How many arrests 3 I think.

Yes the foreign governments and insurance companies are advising against it. Don't know why other than they have no idea of what it has been like here and what it is like now. A smart insurance company would lower their rates as it is even safer now. But then again smart is not their long suit. Irrational fear is. So yes you are rite.

Not sure if I would use a tour with an operator who was that unfamiliar with where they were taking their clients. A good tour operator would know that taking the tourists to Thailand would be safer than taking them to Chicago.

Edited June 2, 2014 by northernjohn

[sharktooth]

Realistically the Chinese won't be affected. After all most of them have no idea what is happening in their own country, never mind this one.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

^ Chicago doesn't have a curfew. And a constitution still applies there. And gatherings of over 5 people are allowed. And there is no chance of accidentally finding yourself in a protest hot-spot, like you might in Bangkok or Chiang Mai. (E.g. democracy monument area in Bangkok, or Thapae gate potentially in Chiang Mai.)

While the Western media is admittedly not capable of giving anyone a real indication of what's going on, it's also the case that any media inside Thailand is heavily censored / self-censored and *also* not a good indication of what's going on. It's objectively true that the military is not even sticking by its own rules, for example when they haul away even people making an individual protest statement, which doesn't break the stated rule of no gatherings of over 5 people. That's just makes them look bad and unreliable to an objective / uninformed observer.

Edited June 2, 2014 by WinnieTheKhwai

[Thailand]

Realistically the Chinese won't be affected. After all most of them have no idea what is happening in their own country, never mind this one.

Don't know the Chinese very well then do you?

[Thailand]

^ Chicago doesn't have a curefew. And a constitution still applies there.

While the Western media is admittedly not capable of giving anyone a real indication of what's going on, it's also the case that any media inside Thailand is heavily censored / self-censored and *also* not a good indication of what's going on. It's objectively true that the military is not even sticking by its own rules, for example when they haul away even people making an individual protest statement, which doesn't break the stated rule of no gatherings of over 5 people. That's just makes them look bad and unreliable to an objective / uninformed observer.

Road rollers to crack walnuts always looks OTT.

[cmsally]

I've spoken to a lot of tourists here and on the way since the coup. Not one had a clue what any of it was about, but they all wanted to be reassured they were "safe."

To be fair, I think quite a few Thais also don't realize what it's about. Which may not be a bad thing.

I for the life of me can not understand why people would not come to Thailand for a holiday.

I do understand why the ones who want to drink and carouse all night don't come. But for the rest of them their is in reality no reason not to come.

You can't understand that people change their minds when their government advises them not to go, and their insurance company tells them they won't be covered, and they see images of soldiers in the street, and people being arrested and taken away for holding up a sign or making a gesture?

I'm sure the military has the best intentions, but I wish they considered what all of this looks like to anyone outside of Thailand. (Tourists or investors alike) Some better PR, removing the curfew and not being so obvious about it on the streets would really help.

False reporting is what is hurting us. There have been tourists having a soldier aim a gun at them and having their picture taken of it. All the nonsense that is being reported over seas by the media is isolated cases. Did Thailand warn people not to go to the states when the Schools and theaters were being shot up. No they reported facts and did not try to make it seem like it was happening in the entire nation. Talked to several in North America they have not seen the pictures you speak of. Or heard about arrests. Only in Thailand. Then mostly on red shirt leaning media. How many arrests 3 I think.

Yes the foreign governments and insurance companies are advising against it. Don't know why other than they have no idea of what it has been like here and what it is like now. A smart insurance company would lower their rates as it is even safer now. But then again smart is not their long suit. Irrational fear is. So yes you are rite.

Not sure if I would use a tour with an operator who was that unfamiliar with where they were taking their clients. A good tour operator would know that taking the tourists to Thailand would be safer than taking them to Chicago.

Not too sure whether to take the above seriously or not. But any soldier pointing his gun at anybody for any reason other than to shoot or have the intention to shoot, has seriously bad/ uninformed training. Under no circumstances should you be pointing a gun at anyone unless you are in a situation where you might pull the trigger.

If that is the extent of the training that has been received then I would say its a safe estimate to stay away from the army. It would seem to be a case of badly trained as well as armed; not a good combination.

As for anyone thinking they are up there on the cute scale with the indomitable panda, maybe read up in the history books - as in go back a few decades.

[northernjohn]

To be fair, I think quite a few Thais also don't realize what it's about. Which may not be a bad thing.

I for the life of me can not understand why people would not come to Thailand for a holiday.

I do understand why the ones who want to drink and carouse all night don't come. But for the rest of them their is in reality no reason not to come.

You can't understand that people change their minds when their government advises them not to go, and their insurance company tells them they won't be covered, and they see images of soldiers in the street, and people being arrested and taken away for holding up a sign or making a gesture?

I'm sure the military has the best intentions, but I wish they considered what all of this looks like to anyone outside of Thailand. (Tourists or investors alike) Some better PR, removing the curfew and not being so obvious about it on the streets would really help.

False reporting is what is hurting us. There have been tourists having a soldier aim a gun at them and having their picture taken of it. All the nonsense that is being reported over seas by the media is isolated cases. Did Thailand warn people not to go to the states when the Schools and theaters were being shot up. No they reported facts and did not try to make it seem like it was happening in the entire nation. Talked to several in North America they have not seen the pictures you speak of. Or heard about arrests. Only in Thailand. Then mostly on red shirt leaning media. How many arrests 3 I think.

Yes the foreign governments and insurance companies are advising against it. Don't know why other than they have no idea of what it has been like here and what it is like now. A smart insurance company would lower their rates as it is even safer now. But then again smart is not their long suit. Irrational fear is. So yes you are rite.

Not sure if I would use a tour with an operator who was that unfamiliar with where they were taking their clients. A good tour operator would know that taking the tourists to Thailand would be safer than taking them to Chicago.

Not too sure whether to take the above seriously or not. But any soldier pointing his gun at anybody for any reason other than to shoot or have the intention to shoot, has seriously bad/ uninformed training. Under no circumstances should you be pointing a gun at anyone unless you are in a situation where you might pull the trigger.

If that is the extent of the training that has been received then I would say its a safe estimate to stay away from the army. It would seem to be a case of badly trained as well as armed; not a good combination.

As for anyone thinking they are up there on the cute scale with the indomitable panda, maybe read up in the history books - as in go back a few decades.

It really happened some guy wanted to have his picture taken with a gun aimed at him.

Not a wise move or a smart act on the part of the soldier.

But it just goes to show how little the people are takeing this coup thing seriously here in Thailand.

Lots of reports of people on the road after hours. Was in the night Bazaar area the last time it was a 10:00 curfew. Many stalls were just starting to shut down.

Yes if you are in a group of over 5 protesting they will take that serious but the reality is not that many people are really against it. Many of the red shirts were tired of the do nothing and nothing happening. So they are staying home. Even at that from what I have been able to understand they are allowing big groups at Victory monument. As I say it is being blown way out of proportion from what it is. The foreign media is absolutely clueless.

Last but not least I remember Winnie posting that he was out and they just shut the door at 10:00 and continued on. I don't think the soldiers were really fooled.

[dave2]

re

( the army )

not being so obvious about it on the streets would really help.

here ya go .... sorted

i went past chiang puak gate on the way home this morning and there were a few cage trucks , a merc moggy and a hummer but i didnt see one soldier

thapae gate had one soldier by the gate with a few soldiers having morning parade / hand over !

with a few tourists around

dave2

edited coz dumbo forgot to put the pics in

Edited June 2, 2014 by dave2