Decline in tourist arrivals?

[eyecatcher]

Contrary to several above comments, we have just had our busiest back to back months in 3yrs.

April and may have been great for us even including at least 6 days last month where we had no customers.

The traditional february surge however was very noticeable, we were down maybe 40% on the previous february and that was due to other countries clamping down on the political situation.

But then all that happened was that they waited a month or so to come back, so Songran was heaving more than ever.

I am never complacent about day to day business but wherever they come from we seem to drop lucky.

....ooh, gotta go another 4000bt just walked in!

Gloating smugness, how nice.

The topic is clear and precise and your little slap on your own back doesn't answer the question. In any economy, even during recession there will always be businesses that are bucking the trend. However, it is clear that tourist numbers are down and will be for a while. Depending on how things develop I expect it to be down for at least the next four months.

There's no floating or smuggness from me, maybe a hint of sarcasm in the last sentence.

The OP asked for opinions of those who have tourist experience not from anyone else.

It is my experience that the last two months have been great for us.....how can I be modest without it sounding smug.

But you now seem to have eyes into the future, I will report back in two months to advise how it went.

Just remember the fortunes and misfortunes of every business don't just depend on number of tourists.

[elektrified]

Tourism is definitely down. But I am actually surprised to see any tourists at all given the situation.

However majority of tourists seem to be Chinese, I'm not too sure if they are aware of whats going on !

Even people who come regularly and can put up with the various "upheavals" are staying away . OK maybe not all but I personally know of half a dozen of these who should have come next month.

I agree with your observation. Western and Japanese, Korean tourism is way down. Perhaps the lowest in a number of years. No surprise there. Today I went for lunch at a popular Korean lunch-time buffet and at 12:30 my g/f and I were the only customers. The place is usually packed with Koreans. The Thai manager told us that the Korean-run guest house upstairs was empty as well.

As far as the Chinese tourists are concerned there has been a lull as well. At least from my observation. But I think it goes up and down. Later this afternoon I went to Airport Plaza to purchase some gifts for some Japanese clients at the Lanna market-place right next to the basement level food court. There must have been 40 Chinese queued up buying souvenirs - lots of them. The cashier told me that almost since the doors opened this morning there was one tour bus after another with Chinese shoppers. She said they had sold close to 350 packs of dried durian. But she also said that they had not had a day like this in more than a week now.

[elektrified]

There are still many businesses and day workers that do not get the recent mandated wage......that's before we talk about Burmese and Cambodians.

I personally think the best days of Chiang Mai tourism are now long gone and it will remain as a place you tick of that you went to for a few days at best. Burma, Lao, Cambodia are all opening up. Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Phil are being better promoted and more stable...and "new". Having traveled to a few of these countries recently it struck me how woefully unprepared Thailand is for Asean EC next year (in English levels for example)...the coup not having elections till late 2015 at this stage will not help integration (there's a word Thais will love).

Asean EC also holds another danger for Thailand on the labour numbers and cheap salary front. Right now Thailand utilises Burmese and Cambodian labour for some sector work (building and some tourism). Soon these peoples will be able to go to other Asean countries and get far better salary and conditions that they do in Thailand...just as some Thais now go to Taiwan, Singapore etc. I think Asean EC and a coup and better foreign government promotion/incentives will will see a lot of new export industries (car manufacturing etc) and some old ones relocate away from Thailand (which is the bigger part of Thai GDP than tourism). So to me the GDP (including tourism is shot).....it had gone down in months prior to the coup anyway on general unrest. I think the days of multi national companies buddying up with military juntas are also on the way out with social media and the like so any stability offered there is not universal.

I agree with your observations about Thailand and ASEAN. Thailand is so unprepared for it, it's not even funny.

My experience is that the Burmese and Cambodians are getting in excess of the 300 Baht/day minimum. I recently spent a month on Koh Kood and a week in Koh Chang. Cambodian laborers on Koh Kood receive a starting salary of 500 Baht per day. People more skilled get more like 700 a day. This was told to me by the owners of every resort I stayed in. They said nobody will work for less than 500 a day. On Koh Chang I stayed at the same place I stay at every time. The new manager is a Burmese lady who is as sharp as they come, has traveled the world, and she speaks 5 languages fluently. She told me she earns 30K per month. If you ask a builder here, they will tell you that they must pay more than 300 a day to get good, skilled Burmese workers. More like 500 per day.

And yes, Japan is opening huge auto manufacturing plants in Myanmar. The Japanese have been losing confidence in Thailand for years now.

Furthermore, Thailand is no longer cheap like it was years ago. It's become quite expensive to vacation here. Many tourists are moving on or have already done so.

[Chiengmaijoe]

Contrary to several above comments, we have just had our busiest back to back months in 3yrs.

April and may have been great for us even including at least 6 days last month where we had no customers.

The traditional february surge however was very noticeable, we were down maybe 40% on the previous february and that was due to other countries clamping down on the political situation.

But then all that happened was that they waited a month or so to come back, so Songran was heaving more than ever.

I am never complacent about day to day business but wherever they come from we seem to drop lucky.

....ooh, gotta go another 4000bt just walked in!

Gloating smugness, how nice.

The topic is clear and precise and your little slap on your own back doesn't answer the question. In any economy, even during recession there will always be businesses that are bucking the trend. However, it is clear that tourist numbers are down and will be for a while. Depending on how things develop I expect it to be down for at least the next four months.

There's no floating or smuggness from me, maybe a hint of sarcasm in the last sentence.

The OP asked for opinions of those who have tourist experience not from anyone else.

It is my experience that the last two months have been great for us.....how can I be modest without it sounding smug.

But you now seem to have eyes into the future, I will report back in two months to advise how it went.

Just remember the fortunes and misfortunes of every business don't just depend on number of tourists.

Besides stating the obvious you say little about whether tourist artivals are down, which they very clearly are. Any individual business doing well or not says nothing about tourist numbers.

My eyes for the future are based on experience and if past coups are anything to go by, I expect numbers to be down for a few months at least, assuming that things don't deteriorate. For tourist based businesses this is very much the low season and tourist numbers don't generally pick up till late June, so with a bit of luck we could be almost back to normal by the high season.

From today's Nation.... http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Air-bookings-to-Thailand-plunge-after-coup-30235226.html

[Johpa]

Tourism is definitely down. But I am actually surprised to see any tourists at all given the situation.

However majority of tourists seem to be Chinese, I'm not too sure if they are aware of whats going on !

Say hey! The Chinese get a slightly exotic culture, warm weather, and yet with the military in control they now get that slightly down home familiar feel as well.

Realistically the Chinese won't be affected. After all most of them have no idea what is happening in their own country, never mind this one.

Don't know the Chinese very well then do you?

What?!? Are you suggesting that the average Chinese who has never previously left their country,a country where all information is controlled by the ruling junta and where even Internet access is controlled to a large degree (yes tech savvy folks can bypass some of the censorship) by that same junta are an informed group of people? At least in the US there still remain some options to purely propaganda style news outlets like FOX news. In China, the masses have only their government's propaganda media machine.

[northernjohn]

Tourism is definitely down. But I am actually surprised to see any tourists at all given the situation.

However majority of tourists seem to be Chinese, I'm not too sure if they are aware of whats going on !

Say hey! The Chinese get a slightly exotic culture, warm weather, and yet with the military in control they now get that slightly down home familiar feel as well.

Realistically the Chinese won't be affected. After all most of them have no idea what is happening in their own country, never mind this one.

Don't know the Chinese very well then do you?

What?!? Are you suggesting that the average Chinese who has never previously left their country,a country where all information is controlled by the ruling junta and where even Internet access is controlled to a large degree (yes tech savvy folks can bypass some of the censorship) by that same junta are an informed group of people? At least in the US there still remain some options to purely propaganda style news outlets like FOX news. In China, the masses have only their government's propaganda media machine.

Probably better than Fox

[Chiengmaijoe]

Please excuse the semi ramble...

Would not that twice democratically elected ex government clique stand just as much chance as getting elected again (or a new party with similar policies) given previous experience, unless you are going to change the whole concept of democracy (ie a country vote is worth a sixth of a Bangkok vote).

There are still many businesses and day workers that do not get the recent mandated wage......that's before we talk about Burmese and Cambodians.

As far as tourism is concerned I know in Australia there has been a surge of cancellations for Thailand which has been a boom for Bali (until recent volcanic issue). Tourists bookings for the July school holidays (in Australia) have surged towards Bali at the expense of Thailand.

I personally think the best days of Chiang Mai tourism are now long gone and it will remain as a place you tick of that you went to for a few days at best. Burma, Lao, Cambodia are all opening up. Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Phil are being better promoted and more stable...and "new". Having traveled to a few of these countries recently it struck me how woefully unprepared Thailand is for Asean EC next year (in English levels for example)...the coup not having elections till late 2015 at this stage will not help integration (there's a word Thais will love).

Asean EC also holds another danger for Thailand on the labour numbers and cheap salary front. Right now Thailand utilises Burmese and Cambodian labour for some sector work (building and some tourism). Soon these peoples will be able to go to other Asean countries and get far better salary and conditions that they do in Thailand...just as some Thais now go to Taiwan, Singapore etc. I think Asean EC and a coup and better foreign government promotion/incentives will will see a lot of new export industries (car manufacturing etc) and some old ones relocate away from Thailand (which is the bigger part of Thai GDP than tourism). So to me the GDP (including tourism is shot).....it had gone down in months prior to the coup anyway on general unrest. I think the days of multi national companies buddying up with military juntas are also on the way out with social media and the like so any stability offered there is not universal.

Anyhow...factually bookings from Australia to Thailand (as a whole) are significantly down.

The "best days of Chiang Mai tourism are now long gone" and have been for twenty years that I know of. "It's finished", "It's over-developed" and "lost it's charm" for much the same period of time. "No real reason to come here" is only a recent phenomena, no more than ten years.

[Mooner]

Let's not forget there was a coup in 2010. There will be a dip but they will be back.

Repeat visitors won't be affected by the news

[Chiengmaijoe]

Let's not forget there was a coup in 2010. There will be a dip but they will be back.

Repeat visitors won't be affected by the news

The 2010 'silent coup' was a lot more violent and subsequently prominent in world news and as such it took a long time for tourism to return to normal, maybe six months or more. This time is hard to gauge because this is a full coup, so although we haven't had the same level of violence or disruptive demonstrations , it will be perceived differently. Repeat visitors are more resilient, but I'm not sure how much of the market they are. My guess is no more than 10%. By that , I don't mean that only 10% return but rather only 10% of people here at any one time are repeat visitors. If that.

[alant]

My wife also has such a small business and we have seen hesitations to book rather than cancellations. Just look around some of chiang mai's "popular areas" and you can see the lack people

Edited June 3, 2014 by alant

[khwaibah]

Let's not forget there was a coup in 2010. There will be a dip but they will be back.

Repeat visitors won't be affected by the news

Incorrect. The last coup was September 19, 2006.

[jaideecm]

It seems that tour groups, adventure and indepentent travelers are staying away from Thailand and the ones canceling their trip. Families, honeymooners and couples looking for a custom designed tour with full service starting with pick up at the airport upon arrival and return to the airport for departure back home is on the rise. Mid and high end clients travel often so are used to the type of situtions that are now happening in Thailand. They don't listen to news hype but find out the truth about the real and made up dangers by chatting with expats and other travelers.

That being said Asian travelers are terrified about coming to Thailand knowing what a military coup means in their home countries. The military is quite calm in Thailand compared to most asian countries such as China. The Japanese and Koreans are afraid of everything so they are canceling and staying away also.

[crazykopite]

At the moment we are in the low season period nevertheless it is my humble opinion that my local Big C, Tesco and Makro are very quiet so to is are the car parks

[AnotherOneAmerican]

My experience is that the Burmese and Cambodians are getting in excess of the 300 Baht/day minimum. I recently spent a month on Koh Kood and a week in Koh Chang. Cambodian laborers on Koh Kood receive a starting salary of 500 Baht per day. People more skilled get more like 700 a day. This was told to me by the owners of every resort I stayed in. They said nobody will work for less than 500 a day. On Koh Chang I stayed at the same place I stay at every time. The new manager is a Burmese lady who is as sharp as they come, has traveled the world, and she speaks 5 languages fluently. She told me she earns 30K per month. If you ask a builder here, they will tell you that they must pay more than 300 a day to get good, skilled Burmese workers. More like 500 per day.

Going rate for Burmese workers in CM is 150bht a day.

They've just built a new shanty town for a couple hundred more behind Ruai Chok market in MaeJo.

Hard for Thais to compete for the work now, all the shops and building workers in the area are Burmese.

As for tourists, CM is a ghost town, popped into immigration yesterday with a friend who was doing his 90 day report, m/c park empty, immigration hardly anyone inside. He couldn't believe his eyes, he says it's normally packed out with every seat taken, standing room only. In and out for him in less than 15 minutes.

Edited June 3, 2014 by AnotherOneAmerican

[shirtless]

While some claim they are doing great I wish them all the best, they are an exception. From what i am seeing is a total lack of business here in Jomtien. Hopefully things will pick up soon, as the high season was by no way great and now we are into the low season only the very smart operators will prosper.

[asdecas]

Realistically the Chinese won't be affected. After all most of them have no idea what is happening in their own country, never mind this one.

You are quite wrong; the Chinese by and large do what they are told to do by their government. See this from last year as an example: http://www.thephuketnews.com/china-clamps-down-on-cheap-tour-packages-to-phuket-42019.php. This is of course not to say that determined individuals cannot by-pass such regulations, but for the mass of tourists in groups, it applies.

The Hong Kong advisory for Thailand at the moment is amber: exercise caution, monitor situation. The Mainland government however is typically much more proactive in its response to perceived threats to its citizens, a recent example being the MH370 disappearance. Any whiff of renewed trouble will likely bring not just a warning to its citizens from Beijing, but an outright ban on unnecessary travel to Thailand.

As for having no idea what is happening in their own country, I will leave the demolition of that part of your argument for another time; perhaps you have not spent much time in China?

Edited June 3, 2014 by asdecas

[apalink_thailand]

Due to the Coup, I am told that travel insurance is not being offered to tour companies/Agencies/Travellers overseas so this is one reason for cancellations.

[animatic]

Flew in last Friday evening. 94 people on plane holding 300.

But it was scheduled to arrive either 1.5 hours after curfew or 1 hour before,

so no surprise such a late flight was minimally populated.

Got a room in airport hotel, just to avoid needing to go into Bkk past curfew,

seemed not overly filled, but breakfast seats were mostly filled.

During my morning I saw no sign of ANYTHING remotely scary or intimidating.

Got home to Samui, to more of the same: nothing unusual.

Worked late both Friday and Sunday, no sign of security efforts at all.

Outside and south of Bangkok it seems business as usual except for perceptions

Led by boiler plate government and insurance company responses.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[lucifer666]

I had several friends contact me about cancelling their flights. I told them that if it wasn't for the news reports, i wouldn't even know there was a coup.

[belg]

one particular kind of tourist will flock here whatever happens, ... it is something they cannot get in their home country : the 2week millionaire debauche with a new girl (hooker) every night on the cheap

[sandyf]

THAILAND: Political tension is expected to further dampen the Thai tourism...

THAILAND: Political tension is expected to further dampen the Thai tourismsector, including the upcoming annual shopping festival Amazing Thailand GrandSales, with the Tourism Council of Thailand again revising down the number ofarrivals expected, The Nation reports. Air bookings to Thailand have seen a fallsince the military took power and declared curfews last month. The tourismcouncil estimated that 1.2 million tourists would avoid traveling to Thailandover the next few months due to security concerns.

Source: Market News International (MNI) – A Deutsche Börse company

3. June 2014 06:42:09

[brit1984]

coups and political instability are nothing new to thailand, and there is nothing to suggest that will change soon

regardless, tourist numbers will continue to grow over the medium / long term (unless the the world runs out of oil)

[sharktooth]

Realistically the Chinese won't be affected. After all most of them have no idea what is happening in their own country, never mind this one.

You are quite wrong; the Chinese by and large do what they are told to do by their government. See this from last year as an example: http://www.thephuketnews.com/china-clamps-down-on-cheap-tour-packages-to-phuket-42019.php. This is of course not to say that determined individuals cannot by-pass such regulations, but for the mass of tourists in groups, it applies.

The Hong Kong advisory for Thailand at the moment is amber: exercise caution, monitor situation. The Mainland government however is typically much more proactive in its response to perceived threats to its citizens, a recent example being the MH370 disappearance. Any whiff of renewed trouble will likely bring not just a warning to its citizens from Beijing, but an outright ban on unnecessary travel to Thailand.

As for having no idea what is happening in their own country, I will leave the demolition of that part of your argument for another time; perhaps you have not spent much time in China?

I only worked in 'The Middle Kingdom' for four years. Yeah, perhaps I didn't spend long enough there...

[Ve37]

Please excuse the semi ramble...

Would not that twice democratically elected ex government clique stand just as much chance as getting elected again (or a new party with similar policies) given previous experience, unless you are going to change the whole concept of democracy (ie a country vote is worth a sixth of a Bangkok vote).

The World Bank says that the Bangkok elite have traditionally received 14 times more in services from Thailand's revenue than those in the North,...thus, the Bangkok elite (aka PDRC) may feel better if their votes were also 14 to one vote of those stupid Northerners looking for equality among all Thai people. And yes,...all politicians from the North with populous ideas for the Northern Thai should be Constitutionally banned.

Perhaps that should bring back tourism to pre-Suthep protest levels,...along with an unelected People's Council of Bangkok elite to run the Country.

[elektrified]

Business must be really bad in Bangkok. A few days ago I had to go down for an overnighter to take care of some business. Got in late and left early. Had no problem finding a decent hotel right near where I had to be in the morning. Hi-rise hotel called the Nasa Vegas - 500 Baht for the night. They even had condoms and KY gel on the minibar! LOL Hadn't noticed that in BKK hotels before.

[elektrified]

My experience is that the Burmese and Cambodians are getting in excess of the 300 Baht/day minimum. I recently spent a month on Koh Kood and a week in Koh Chang. Cambodian laborers on Koh Kood receive a starting salary of 500 Baht per day. People more skilled get more like 700 a day. This was told to me by the owners of every resort I stayed in. They said nobody will work for less than 500 a day. On Koh Chang I stayed at the same place I stay at every time. The new manager is a Burmese lady who is as sharp as they come, has traveled the world, and she speaks 5 languages fluently. She told me she earns 30K per month. If you ask a builder here, they will tell you that they must pay more than 300 a day to get good, skilled Burmese workers. More like 500 per day.

Going rate for Burmese workers in CM is 150bht a day.

They've just built a new shanty town for a couple hundred more behind Ruai Chok market in MaeJo.

Hard for Thais to compete for the work now, all the shops and building workers in the area are Burmese.

As for tourists, CM is a ghost town, popped into immigration yesterday with a friend who was doing his 90 day report, m/c park empty, immigration hardly anyone inside. He couldn't believe his eyes, he says it's normally packed out with every seat taken, standing room only. In and out for him in less than 15 minutes.

Good luck finding Burmese workers for 150 Baht! Most get 500.

[JohnP1752]

Thailand wasn't even this quiet in 2010. This Coup is definitely more extreme than previous Coups. You cannot trust anything in the media as its all heavily filtered and sanctioned to make sure its not critical of the Coup gang. Some reports of anti western sentiment also.

Do you see tourists rushing to North Korea?

[evenstevens]

just a few dark clouds passing over sunny skies ahead

as for the self funded retiree,s (like me) who gives a hoot

[HUAHIN62]

The figures I saw was +- 10% down in March. There was an article about it but can't remember where I saw it, arrivals for the year was however in the negative. If you look at the countries that have travel warnings out, it makes up the bulk of the Thai tourists. The guys incharge are coming up with many fancy schemes including the revival of the B 2 tn schemes (555 not corrupt and a waste of money now), the easiest and most effective way the economy can get a kick start is to let the Baht depreciate to 40 to the USD. Both exports and tourism (80% of GDP) will boom at that exchange rate and some expats will smile again.

The minimum wage was increased in January 2012 and the effect of that has worked its way through the economy. Any shop closing now can't claim its because of the wage issue. The real issue is the level of personnal debt thats way to high. Many Thai's (and developed countries citizens) can't spend more because of this debt level and when interest rates starts to rise they going to be in trouble.

[evenstevens]

^^^^^hooray.. another expat who thinks he can run the country,best for these lot is to return to their own country,and let the thais do the business ,good or bad, its their blooming country u know..