ISIS: The first terror group to build an Islamic State?

[Scott]

ISIS: The first terror group to build an Islamic State?

By TIm Lister, CNN

June 12, 2014 -- Updated 1146 GMT (1946 HKT)

(CNN) -- The face of a balding, middle-aged man stares unsmilingly into the camera. He is dressed in a suit and tie and could pass for a mid-level bureaucrat.

But the photograph is that of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, who has transformed a few terror cells harried to the verge of extinction into the most dangerous militant group in the world.

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has thrived and mutated in the security vacuum that followed the departure of the last U.S. forces from Iraq and the civil war in Syria.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/12/world/meast/who-is-the-isis/index.html?hpt=hp_c1

CNN

[NeverSure]

"Iraq Wants America Back to Fight Insurgents With Air Strikes."

"Two and a half years after the last U.S. soldier departed, an al Qaeda offshoot is in control of Mosul and headed for Baghdad—and Iraq’s prime minister is requesting U.S. air strikes."

LINK

[Ulysses G.]

Probably too late for that.

[rgs2001uk]

The first terrorist group to build an Islamic state were the followers of the prohphet.

The Jews kicked out, others forced to convert at the point of a sword, good old Saudi, probably the first country in the world to carry out sectarian cleansing on religious grounds.

The rest they say is history.

[Fat Haggis]

Thanks Scott.

Guys I'm in Iraq right now and the news flooding in from the North isn't good, the ISIS/ISIL have seized almost half a billion dollars, as well as tens of thousands of weapons left by the Iraqi Army and police, including aircraft, and heavy armour, they have been in control of Fallujah and Ramadi since January, and firmly entrenched, Mosul fell in less than 48 hours, Tikrit less..

[Asiantravel]

Amazing that Glenn Beck predicted this was going to happen while he was still working for Fox News in 2010 but of course everybody dismissed him at that time as a nut case

[Asiantravel]

Thanks Scott.

Guys I'm in Iraq right now and the news flooding in from the North isn't good, the ISIS/ISIL have seized almost half a billion dollars, as well as tens of thousands of weapons left by the Iraqi Army and police, including aircraft, and heavy armour, they have been in control of Fallujah and Ramadi since January, and firmly entrenched, Mosul fell in less than 48 hours, Tikrit less..

including at least one, US ultramodern Blackhawk and Kiowa helicopters parked at the Mosul airport

[RickBradford]

Well, if they form their own state, it should attract devotees from everywhere to join the movement.

Once they're all in one place, it might just give some of those folks in the Pentagon an idea.............

[rgs2001uk]

Thanks Scott.

Guys I'm in Iraq right now and the news flooding in from the North isn't good, the ISIS/ISIL have seized almost half a billion dollars, as well as tens of thousands of weapons left by the Iraqi Army and police, including aircraft, and heavy armour, they have been in control of Fallujah and Ramadi since January, and firmly entrenched, Mosul fell in less than 48 hours, Tikrit less..

Great stuff, as you reap you will sow.

If I were you I would haul my sorry white ass out of there asap, "oil money" hope you are being paid handsomely for being there.

So this is June and you have stayed since this started in Jan?

Blind Pugh could have seen this coming.

[Ulysses G.]

Amazing that Glenn Beck predicted this was going to happen while he was still working for Fox News in 2010 but of course everybody dismissed him at that time as a nut case

He is a nutcase, but he does get some things very right when it comes to Islam and the Middle East.

[Morch]

The Kurds made a move on Kirkuk, seems like Iraq's fragmentation is gathering speed:

Iraq Kurds take Kirkuk; Sunni militants surge toward Baghdad

(Reuters) - Iraqi Kurdish forces took control of the northern oil city of Kirkuk on Thursday, after government troops abandoned their posts in the face of a triumphant Sunni Islamist rebel march towards Baghdad that threatens Iraq's future as a unified state.

In Mosul, Sunni militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) staged a parade of American Humvees seized from the collapsing Iraqi army in the two days since the fighters drove out of the desert and overran Iraq's second biggest city.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/12/us-iraq-violence-idUSKBN0EN0RV20140612

[Neurath]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

The first terrorist group to build an Islamic state were the followers of the prohphet.

The Jews kicked out, others forced to convert at the point of a sword, good old Saudi, probably the first country in the world to carry out sectarian cleansing on religious grounds.

The rest they say is history.

You might want to crack open Exodus and have read.

[Hua Hin expat]

Has anyone wondered where MH370 could be right now? And what are they going to use that missile technology for???

Anyone who thinks that plane crashed is a lunatic!

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[Fat Haggis]

Thanks Scott.

Guys I'm in Iraq right now and the news flooding in from the North isn't good, the ISIS/ISIL have seized almost half a billion dollars, as well as tens of thousands of weapons left by the Iraqi Army and police, including aircraft, and heavy armour, they have been in control of Fallujah and Ramadi since January, and firmly entrenched, Mosul fell in less than 48 hours, Tikrit less..

Great stuff, as you reap you will sow.

If I were you I would haul my sorry white ass out of there asap, "oil money" hope you are being paid handsomely for being there.

So this is June and you have stayed since this started in Jan?

Blind Pugh could have seen this coming.

I've been working in Iraq for the past 10 years, I'm however based down in the South, the level of violence has never been as bad as Al Anbar and the North. There's nothing sorry about my white ass either, you seem to be inferring that this was brought about by our own doing?

Your lack of knowledge and understanding is understandable, as Iraq has always maintained a level of violence, since the last US Troops left, it just wasn't news worthy or in anyone's interests any longer, to have it reported on mainstream as the public interest was no longer there in a war that cost so many American and coalition lives, not to mention the hundreds of thousand of Iraqi ones since 2003.

I work 6 weeks on 6 weeks off, and blind Pew apparently didn't see this coming, as the Iraqi Intelligence people, nor the American Intelligence people at the US Embassy seen it coming either mate, we're talking about 3-4000 ISIS fighters roaming through the North, the Iraqi Army abandoned their posts as they were given an ultimatum by the ISIS "leave and live, stay and die, as we're willing to die killing you" ... they decided that instead of protecting their own country, they went home..

The Iraqi Government told the US Administration that it could handle the security within their own country and they were no longer needed, they soon started taking down all the defences and not long after that, the ISIL started their terror campaigns against the people of Iraq, since The US Administration decided to start arming and funding the Syrian Rebels, of which the ISIL was part of, they've grown stronger and bolder, and in January of this year, the Iraqi Security Forces have been battling them to try and regain Fallujah and Ramadi, without success, and 2 days ago, they launched a massive strike against key locations in the North, with minimum resistance.

What's happening in Iraq just now,is whats going to happen also in Afghanistan as soon as the pullout is finished.

[rgs2001uk]

^^^^^,

I left that part of the world at the end of 2005, they were throwing money at us to try and keep us to stay. Know people still there for one reason or another, sorry, a thousand dollars a day wouldn't drag me back. Their (artificial) country to do with as they please.

Any problems take it up with the "war criminal" Blair and Big George. What weapons of mass destruction?

The place was a stable part of the world, whether we like it or not, Saddam, Ghaddafi and Mubarak kept the lid on things.Same way as the Saudis keep the lid on things, never mind sending their troops into Bahrain to oppress the masses, as long as Bubba can drive his car for gas a 3 bucks a gallon.

The Saudis are probably planning their exit as we speak, never mind the inhabitants of zone 19 and their corrupt regime. We in the west have been supporting these dictataors for years. Talk about chickens coming home to roost.

If OBL had been an American he would have been hailed as a patriot.

[rgs2001uk]

For TVs very own pigeonjake.

They tell me Angola is nice this time of year, hope you managed to get yourself out of that shithole,

If you are an ROVr, try Brazil, the GOM is nice this time of year.

[Sandman77]

Just rob a big bank from gov

Euronews report and take 300 million euro!!

[MrWorldwide]

All that death and destruction and this is how it ends - Afghanistan will fare no better and the locals knew it. We need to start learning from history.

[Bwanatickey]

A religious war , Muslim Sunnis against Shia Muslims, started by two infidels Blaire and Buddy, who started a Bush fire that seems to have gone wrong. The wind changed direction.

Blaire and Bush were guided by the Christian God.

You couldn,t make this stuff up.

[Fat Haggis]

That's not quite correct, the Shia/Kurds and the Sunni were fighting each other long before the first gulf war in 1991.

[bigbamboo]

A religious war , Muslim Sunnis against Shia Muslims, started by two infidels Blaire and Buddy, who started a Bush fire that seems to have gone wrong. The wind changed direction.

Blaire and Bush were guided by the Christian God.

You couldn,t make this stuff up.

The Sonnys and Chers have never needed anyone's help to start a religious war.

[NeverSure]

A religious war , Muslim Sunnis against Shia Muslims, started by two infidels Blaire and Buddy, who started a Bush fire that seems to have gone wrong. The wind changed direction.

Blaire and Bush were guided by the Christian God.

You couldn,t make this stuff up.

You couldn,t make this stuff up.

Apparently you can. There were more than 40 countries participating in the invasion of Iraq.

Members of the Coalition included Australia: 2,000 invasion, Poland: 200 invasion—2,500 peak, United Kingdom: 46,000 invasion, United States: 150,000 to 250,000 invasion. Other members of the coalition were Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, the Netherlands, Nicaragua, Palau, Panama, the Philippines, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Singapore, Slovakia, Solomon Islands, South Korea, Spain, Tonga, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. At least 15 other countries participated covertly

The amount of ordnance dropped on Iraqi positions by Coalition aircraft in 2001 and 2002 was less than in 1999 and 2000 which was during the Clinton administration

LINK

I didn't and don't approve of that war, but let's not forget how it really happened. World news sources are incredibly biased, and lies become legends.

[Johpa]

So we are still demonizing as "terrorists" those who, although indeed quite brutal, only want outside influences removed from their native soil. We called the Viet Cong terrorists just as we now call the Taliban and ISIS folks terrorists. Yet we can never imagine ourselves as terrorists from the viewpoint of a civilian family on the other end of the bombing run who we categorize as "collateral damage". The US has no more possibility of defeating the current groups labeled "terrorists" anymore than the US was able to defeat the Viet Cong. The political mistakes in the Levant by the combined wisdom, or total lack thereof, of the US and Britain, always motivated by the profits of the Big Oil companies, began long before even the reign of Bush the Elder, although I would guess Grandpa Prescott had quite the influence in the 1930s.

If you want to take a small first step towards stability in the Middle East then the west should nationalize Big Oil: The Netherlands with Shell; The UK with BP; and the US with Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips. All these private companies profit from the instability that they themselves create. They are the real global terrorists.

[folium]

A religious war , Muslim Sunnis against Shia Muslims, started by two infidels Blaire and Buddy, who started a Bush fire that seems to have gone wrong. The wind changed direction.

Blaire and Bush were guided by the Christian God.

You couldn,t make this stuff up.

You couldn,t make this stuff up.

Apparently you can. There were more than 40 countries participating in the invasion of Iraq.

Members of the Coalition included Australia: 2,000 invasion, Poland: 200 invasion—2,500 peak, United Kingdom: 46,000 invasion, United States: 150,000 to 250,000 invasion. Other members of the coalition were Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, the Netherlands, Nicaragua, Palau, Panama, the Philippines, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Singapore, Slovakia, Solomon Islands, South Korea, Spain, Tonga, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. At least 15 other countries participated covertly

The amount of ordnance dropped on Iraqi positions by Coalition aircraft in 2001 and 2002 was less than in 1999 and 2000 which was during the Clinton administration

LINK

I didn't and don't approve of that war, but let's not forget how it really happened. World news sources are incredibly biased, and lies become legends.

Seems you can make this stuff up...

Op Iraqi Freedom, 2003, saw FOUR nations (see your own link for more details) contributing troops to the actual invasion of Iraq. The US 148,000, UK 45,000, Australia 2,000 and Poland 194. In % terms that works out as 76%, 23%, 1% and a rounding error. The Australian land contingent was a 500 strong SF force, the remainder were naval and air force personnel. The Polish contribution was a squadron of SF plus some NBC specialists. So in essence the 2003 invasion of Iraq was conducted by US/UK troops.

Once the invasion was complete some 40 nations then contributed small detachments to the MNF-I, for instance Thailand contributed 400 troops who stayed for a year 2003-04. As the situation in Iraq deteriorated these contingents were withdrawn and the UK/US troops, having been first in, were also last out in 2011.

The contrast with the 1st Gulf War is striking; then 32 nations contributed a total of almost 900,000 troops to the retaking of Kuwait.

Not quite sure about your ordnance dropped figures, but the key year pre 2003 was actually the 4 day Op Desert Fox in Dec 1998, which saw a sustained US/UK air assault on Iraqi targets.

The link to today's disastrous situation in Iraq is fourfold:

1) the 2003 invasion was done way too light (compare the numbers to 1990-91), largely due to Rumsfeld's insistence on a rapid, lightweight invasion force. This ensured that insufficient troops were on the ground to prevent the collapse into anarchy and chaos.

2) the disastrous decision to demobilize and send home the Iraqi army as part of the de-Baathification process created a ready-made, embittered resistance force with the training and equipment to be highly effective. Ironically it seems that many of those leading the ISIS advance are ex-Iraqi army officers pushed out in 2003.

3) the Sykes-Pichot division of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East post WW1. While this suited the needs of France and Britain and helped meet the promise of a Jewish homeland within Palestine as per the Balfour Declaration, it has set the scene for the conflicts in the Middle East in the last 100 years. Iraq was a creation of the British, complete with an imposed monarch from Saudi. The imposed boundaries of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Palestine have been a running sore and source of conflict ever since as they were drawn with no regard for the ethnic distribution within the region or previous history.

4) despite being promised a homeland in the 1920 Treaty of Sevres, the Kurds were subsequently shafted in the Treaty of Lausanne 1923 and were split between Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Ironically while the recent events may create a Sunni area covering the Syria/Iraq border, the same chaos may led to the creation of a Kurdish homeland in northern Iraq and NE Syria. Watch this space for US assistance (overt or otherwise) in support of the Kurdish peshmerga who are the only real hope of combating ISIS in northern Iraq. The payback may well see a final creation of an independent Kurdistan.

Quite how the boundaries of the Middle East end up will be somewhat important, but their redrawing may also possibly resolve many of the longstanding conflicts that plague this region.

[cloudhopper]

Sounds like Viet Nam all over again doesn't it? Afghanistan will soon be next. Another sorry legacy of US interventionism that will continue as long as the oligarchy can profit from it.

[folium]

So we are still demonizing as "terrorists" those who, although indeed quite brutal, only want outside influences removed from their native soil. We called the Viet Cong terrorists just as we now call the Taliban and ISIS folks terrorists. Yet we can never imagine ourselves as terrorists from the viewpoint of a civilian family on the other end of the bombing run who we categorize as "collateral damage". The US has no more possibility of defeating the current groups labeled "terrorists" anymore than the US was able to defeat the Viet Cong. The political mistakes in the Levant by the combined wisdom, or total lack thereof, of the US and Britain, always motivated by the profits of the Big Oil companies, began long before even the reign of Bush the Elder, although I would guess Grandpa Prescott had quite the influence in the 1930s.

If you want to take a small first step towards stability in the Middle East then the west should nationalize Big Oil: The Netherlands with Shell; The UK with BP; and the US with Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips. All these private companies profit from the instability that they themselves create. They are the real global terrorists.

While I agree that the term "terrorist" is highly subjective and should be replaced by insurgent as a more accurate description (whilst not excusing the brutal acts conducted by some insurgents), your focus on "Big Oil" is both overstated and outdated.

The supermajors are in fact fairly small and peripheral players in the global oil industry today, with a lot of expertise but are basically scrabbling for the crumbs and JVs, compared to the state owned oil companies.

In the 1950's the "seven sisters" (now "Big Oil" or supermajors) controlled 85% of global oil reserves. Today state owned oil companies own 90% of global reserves.

Have a read:

http://www.economist.com/node/21534794

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21582522-day-huge-integrated-international-oil-company-drawing

Good luck with nationalizing "Big Oil" (you forgot Total)...who would stump up the approx. $1.2 trillion based on current market values?

[simple1]

A religious war , Muslim Sunnis against Shia Muslims, started by two infidels Blaire and Buddy, who started a Bush fire that seems to have gone wrong. The wind changed direction.

Blaire and Bush were guided by the Christian God.

You couldn,t make this stuff up.

You couldn,t make this stuff up.

Apparently you can. There were more than 40 countries participating in the invasion of Iraq.

Members of the Coalition included Australia: 2,000 invasion, Poland: 200 invasion—2,500 peak, United Kingdom: 46,000 invasion, United States: 150,000 to 250,000 invasion. Other members of the coalition were Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, the Netherlands, Nicaragua, Palau, Panama, the Philippines, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Singapore, Slovakia, Solomon Islands, South Korea, Spain, Tonga, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. At least 15 other countries participated covertly

The amount of ordnance dropped on Iraqi positions by Coalition aircraft in 2001 and 2002 was less than in 1999 and 2000 which was during the Clinton administration

LINK

I didn't and don't approve of that war, but let's not forget how it really happened. World news sources are incredibly biased, and lies become legends.

Seems you can make this stuff up...

Op Iraqi Freedom, 2003, saw FOUR nations (see your own link for more details) contributing troops to the actual invasion of Iraq. The US 148,000, UK 45,000, Australia 2,000 and Poland 194. In % terms that works out as 76%, 23%, 1% and a rounding error. The Australian land contingent was a 500 strong SF force, the remainder were naval and air force personnel. The Polish contribution was a squadron of SF plus some NBC specialists. So in essence the 2003 invasion of Iraq was conducted by US/UK troops.

Once the invasion was complete some 40 nations then contributed small detachments to the MNF-I, for instance Thailand contributed 400 troops who stayed for a year 2003-04. As the situation in Iraq deteriorated these contingents were withdrawn and the UK/US troops, having been first in, were also last out in 2011.

The contrast with the 1st Gulf War is striking; then 32 nations contributed a total of almost 900,000 troops to the retaking of Kuwait.

Not quite sure about your ordnance dropped figures, but the key year pre 2003 was actually the 4 day Op Desert Fox in Dec 1998, which saw a sustained US/UK air assault on Iraqi targets.

The link to today's disastrous situation in Iraq is fourfold:

1) the 2003 invasion was done way too light (compare the numbers to 1990-91), largely due to Rumsfeld's insistence on a rapid, lightweight invasion force. This ensured that insufficient troops were on the ground to prevent the collapse into anarchy and chaos.

2) the disastrous decision to demobilize and send home the Iraqi army as part of the de-Baathification process created a ready-made, embittered resistance force with the training and equipment to be highly effective. Ironically it seems that many of those leading the ISIS advance are ex-Iraqi army officers pushed out in 2003.

3) the Sykes-Pichot division of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East post WW1. While this suited the needs of France and Britain and helped meet the promise of a Jewish homeland within Palestine as per the Balfour Declaration, it has set the scene for the conflicts in the Middle East in the last 100 years. Iraq was a creation of the British, complete with an imposed monarch from Saudi. The imposed boundaries of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Palestine have been a running sore and source of conflict ever since as they were drawn with no regard for the ethnic distribution within the region or previous history.

4) despite being promised a homeland in the 1920 Treaty of Sevres, the Kurds were subsequently shafted in the Treaty of Lausanne 1923 and were split between Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Ironically while the recent events may create a Sunni area covering the Syria/Iraq border, the same chaos may led to the creation of a Kurdish homeland in northern Iraq and NE Syria. Watch this space for US assistance (overt or otherwise) in support of the Kurdish peshmerga who are the only real hope of combating ISIS in northern Iraq. The payback may well see a final creation of an independent Kurdistan.

Quite how the boundaries of the Middle East end up will be somewhat important, but their redrawing may also possibly resolve many of the longstanding conflicts that plague this region.

Agree with your analysis & appears to be an event that has long been forecast of borders being redrawn along the regional Sunni / Shia / Kurdish divide. In your opinion do you believe Iran, Syria & Iraq will not be able to reverse the gains made by ISIS? What about Turkish resistance? Will Turkey just focus on managing issues with their Kurdish population?

BTW who is buying the oil from the ISIS controlled territory? ISIS needs the cash generated to acquire arms and consolidate their control.

[folium]

A religious war , Muslim Sunnis against Shia Muslims, started by two infidels Blaire and Buddy, who started a Bush fire that seems to have gone wrong. The wind changed direction.

Blaire and Bush were guided by the Christian God.

You couldn,t make this stuff up.

You couldn,t make this stuff up.

Apparently you can. There were more than 40 countries participating in the invasion of Iraq.

Members of the Coalition included Australia: 2,000 invasion, Poland: 200 invasion—2,500 peak, United Kingdom: 46,000 invasion, United States: 150,000 to 250,000 invasion. Other members of the coalition were Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, the Netherlands, Nicaragua, Palau, Panama, the Philippines, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Singapore, Slovakia, Solomon Islands, South Korea, Spain, Tonga, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. At least 15 other countries participated covertly

The amount of ordnance dropped on Iraqi positions by Coalition aircraft in 2001 and 2002 was less than in 1999 and 2000 which was during the Clinton administration

LINK

I didn't and don't approve of that war, but let's not forget how it really happened. World news sources are incredibly biased, and lies become legends.

Seems you can make this stuff up...

Op Iraqi Freedom, 2003, saw FOUR nations (see your own link for more details) contributing troops to the actual invasion of Iraq. The US 148,000, UK 45,000, Australia 2,000 and Poland 194. In % terms that works out as 76%, 23%, 1% and a rounding error. The Australian land contingent was a 500 strong SF force, the remainder were naval and air force personnel. The Polish contribution was a squadron of SF plus some NBC specialists. So in essence the 2003 invasion of Iraq was conducted by US/UK troops.

Once the invasion was complete some 40 nations then contributed small detachments to the MNF-I, for instance Thailand contributed 400 troops who stayed for a year 2003-04. As the situation in Iraq deteriorated these contingents were withdrawn and the UK/US troops, having been first in, were also last out in 2011.

The contrast with the 1st Gulf War is striking; then 32 nations contributed a total of almost 900,000 troops to the retaking of Kuwait.

Not quite sure about your ordnance dropped figures, but the key year pre 2003 was actually the 4 day Op Desert Fox in Dec 1998, which saw a sustained US/UK air assault on Iraqi targets.

The link to today's disastrous situation in Iraq is fourfold:

1) the 2003 invasion was done way too light (compare the numbers to 1990-91), largely due to Rumsfeld's insistence on a rapid, lightweight invasion force. This ensured that insufficient troops were on the ground to prevent the collapse into anarchy and chaos.

2) the disastrous decision to demobilize and send home the Iraqi army as part of the de-Baathification process created a ready-made, embittered resistance force with the training and equipment to be highly effective. Ironically it seems that many of those leading the ISIS advance are ex-Iraqi army officers pushed out in 2003.

3) the Sykes-Pichot division of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East post WW1. While this suited the needs of France and Britain and helped meet the promise of a Jewish homeland within Palestine as per the Balfour Declaration, it has set the scene for the conflicts in the Middle East in the last 100 years. Iraq was a creation of the British, complete with an imposed monarch from Saudi. The imposed boundaries of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Palestine have been a running sore and source of conflict ever since as they were drawn with no regard for the ethnic distribution within the region or previous history.

4) despite being promised a homeland in the 1920 Treaty of Sevres, the Kurds were subsequently shafted in the Treaty of Lausanne 1923 and were split between Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Ironically while the recent events may create a Sunni area covering the Syria/Iraq border, the same chaos may led to the creation of a Kurdish homeland in northern Iraq and NE Syria. Watch this space for US assistance (overt or otherwise) in support of the Kurdish peshmerga who are the only real hope of combating ISIS in northern Iraq. The payback may well see a final creation of an independent Kurdistan.

Quite how the boundaries of the Middle East end up will be somewhat important, but their redrawing may also possibly resolve many of the longstanding conflicts that plague this region.

Agree with your analysis & appears to be an event that has long been forecast of borders being redrawn along the regional Sunni / Shia / Kurdish divide. In your opinion do you believe Iran, Syria & Iraq will not be able to reverse the gains made by ISIS? What about Turkish resistance? Will Turkey just focus on managing issues with their Kurdish population?

BTW who is buying the oil from the ISIS controlled territory? ISIS needs the cash generated to acquire arms and consolidate their control.

Ripping up colonial ers boundaries has long been avoided for fear of opening up a veritable Pandora's Box. Africa's experience of secessionist attempts in Biafra and Katanga in the 1960's/70's underlined the point with some 2-3 million dead (largely civilians). The first agreed redrawing of colonial boundaries in Africa led to the creation of South Sudan in 2011 and its subsequent descent into a brutal ethnic civil war.

Redrawing boundaries in the Middle East could be equally messy and would probably provoke a vast movement of people.

In Syria Assad may be able to defeat ISIS as they have lost much support due to their incredible brutality. The Kurds in Syria have stayed largely neutral and are playing a longer game of seeking autonomy or even secession for their area in NE Syria. Maliki appears to be a busted flush and the collapse of the Iraq army rivals that of the ARVN in 1975. Ironically Iranian and US support may prevent ISIS tanks from smashing down the gates of his palace and enable Maliki to hang on to Baghdad and the southern provinces, but Iraq appears to be destined for a 3 way split based on current positions.

Turkey was initially very apprehensive of the quasi-autonomous Kurdish zone in northern Iraq post 1st Gulf War as it presented a safe haven for PKK insurgents. Post 2003 and the virtual independence of Iraqi Kurdistan the Turks have been less bellicose and have recently opened up a pipeline enabling the Kurds to export their oil via Turkey, much to the fury of Baghdad. Turkish Kurds have gained a limited degree of recognition and autonomy but redrawing Turkish boundaries is as likely as Iran allowing a Kurdish state to appear within its territory. Thus ironically the best hope for a Kurdish homeland rests on the 2 countries where they have been repressed and persecuted the most fiercely (ie Syria and Iraq).

re oil in Iraq the key areas are in the Shia southern provinces and in the Kurdish areas around Kirkuk. There are oilfields in the potential ISIS /Sunni territory but how the area NE of Baghdad is carved up will be crucial. ISIS will probably end up with pipelines to Syria and Turkey, plus the key refinery at Bayji but limited production areas. The Kurds, if they consolidate their hold on Kirkuk and southwards towards Baghdad, could be in a great position, especially now they have their own pipeline to Turkey.

Sounds like ISIS won't be short of cash for a while having opened up the banks in Mosul....also they seem to have swept up large quantities of Soviet and US hardware abandoned by the Iraqi army as they bugged out. Was watching some footage of the Iraqi air force bombing their own bases around Mosul to try and deny ISIS use of this abandoned equipment. All we need now are helicopters on the roof of the US embassy in the Green Zone in Baghdad and it really will be 1975 all over again...

See map of Iraqi oilfields below:

http://www.oilempire.us/oil-jpg/iraq_oil_2003.jpg

[simple1]

Tony Blair: West must take sides against growing threat of radical Islam

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/23/tony-blair-west-take-sides-growing-threat-radical-islam

[coma]

Leave them to it. They are a disgrace. Ten years of war and billions of $$$$$$ training and arming the Iraqi defense force and they fold at the very first sign of aggression. We will be back in there getting killed by the very people the alliance trained and the very weapons we put in their hands.

I hate to say I told you so but ..... I told you so

The Afgan is next to fold.