The Urgency of Addressing Iran’s Nuclear Threat

[AfterLOS]

Warren's creed is no different than AfterLOS stance:

Warren says: When there's blood in the streets, buy - when there's too much optimism, SELL, SELL, SELL

Optimism in the current environment? Heck its overflowing with optimism.

------------------------------------------------------

At the end of the 2008 crash investors were deathly afraid of junk bonds, now they can't get enough of them.

They are thinking only about Yield, totally ignoring risk to principal. That is the definition of DENIAL

[AfterLOS]

Never EVER seen in the HISTORY of mankind or even earlier species OR even in the 75 million

years of the Galactic Confederation, a union of 76 planets that averaged a population of 200 billion

per planet. Highly advanced, so to solve overpopulation they staged the implant that resulted

in the perennial war\famine\poverty etc. on Teejeeack (EARTH)

But even in their HISTORY there has never ever been a MEGAPHONE formation, one of the deadliest

formations in the reactive mind - and stock prices, based on HERD instinct are from the depths of the RM

The United States Dow Jones has it on the monthly timeframe. Behold this magnificent chart prepared by yours truly.

[AfterLOS]

Trying the junk bond picture again ....

[AfterLOS]

Dow Jones 2009 - 2014 bullrun to complete the megaphone pattern is a Wave-B

B-type waves are characterized by

Technically weak

Aggressive euphoria

Denial

Fundamentals weaken subtly

The volume contraction in the stock market has now lasted over five years, which is extreme technical weakness

Now with the above in mind, have a look again at the Junk Bond Yield chart in previous post.

From AfterLOS own notes and experience:

B-waves fool the masses bigtime by using the greed factor - when the public sees big jumps in price and the Media

keeps talking about how the market is ascending and people are missing out, heck they rush in. This is what B-waves

require because the fundamental requirement is, "as many if not all must be aboard and deeply invested or commited"

Why must they be deeeeeeeply invested?

Because the next wave is Wave-C down. A Wave-C by definition must deliver megaton impact. It cannot do this if Wave B

has not done a good job.

The hammer force of Wave C is so staggering that investors are left frozen in time - cannot get out despite the stampede that gets going

after a while.

This is the reason AfterLOs prefers to get out before the rush - walk out and have a coffee and forget about it.

Dow Jones initial target is 3000-6000. Will narrow it down as I sort it out in more detail.

Main beneficiary of this decline in the Dow will be the US Dollar.

Gold? One would expect gold to naturally blast north when the world is falling apart, right? Hahahahaha, that's a trap too that AfterLos

does not like to take for granted, so here its a wait and see which way gold will go. It will become clear soon enough. In any event I have

loads of the yellow stuff in the raw.

[AfterLOS]

Have we experienced a Wave-C recently?

Everyone here remembers the 2008 CRASH, right? It started from October 2007.

When did it start to pick up steam? In May 2008.

That segment, from May 2008 to March 2009 was the Wave-C portion of the A-B-C decline from 2007.

That Wave C tore apart BofA, Citicorp and gave Amex a thorough pasting with no pajamas on = red welts

Yeah it brought 'em all to their knees.

And that was just a mini Wave C. This one is a few higher degrees of TREND, a genuine megaton hammer.

Of course the other famous wave C was after the the first leg down and then up of the 1929 Great Depression.

Once the C-wave got going it was relentless.

Now dig this, this coming C-wave is one degree of TREND higher than the GD

Ouch!

[AfterLOS]

AfterLOS private indicator is to keep a keen eye on the so-called SMART MONEY

When Li Ka-Shing started unloading billions of dollars onto the market in a giant dump fest I noo it was time to pack up and go to the beach. I waited for 2 weeks and saw he was dumping commercial property like there was no tomorrow. that's it, I had enough.

When the Chinese tsunami wave = supremely overpriced real estate liquidation hits the shores of the World I don't wanna be around any beach.

Now throw in all the businesses that are failing left and right in China, its downright disconcerting

http://www.forbes.com/profile/li-ka-shing/

[SheungWan]

Gold? One would expect gold to naturally blast north when the world is falling apart, right? Hahahahaha, that's a trap too that AfterLos

does not like to take for granted, so here its a wait and see which way gold will go. It will become clear soon enough. In any event I have

loads of the yellow stuff in the raw.

The typical bonkers contribution which doesn't amount to anything more than wait and see. Let's summarise the above: Wave A: I don't know if gold is going up. Wave B: Don't be fooled that it is going up. Wave C: I have lots of gold. Wave D: more interminable rubbish.

[AfterLOS]

Warren gots to be happy with this ......

A popular market gauge of the relative fortunes of the United States and Europe has hit a 15-year high - big foreign investors are loading up on good ol’ made-in-the-U.S.A. government bonds

[Robert24]

@afterLOS: I understand some of your logic and I agree with some of your points you made. Long$, cautious on the stock market positions, Long Gold etc. But you are a bit a doomsday prophet with saying the market will crash 70-80% etc. Can you give a rationale for such an extreme position? What's triggering this? What's your outlook on inflation? Is this why you see Gold going up? How about other asset classes like bonds and commodiities, any views on those? How about your views on other currencies than the $.

Also timing can hurt you a lot. You mentioned you are short SET50 futures. That can hurt you a lot if the market goes up more. I agree with your view to be long TMB though on the Thai stock market, I have a position on this as well and waiting for someone to take it over....but again sometimes you have to wait long time, like with BAY.

[AfterLOS]

I quote:

"That’s good news, certainly. But still, the thing that has replaced our collective dread may be even more dangerous in the long run — and that’s complacency. The slowness of our economic recovery should remain our biggest national worry, particularly as that sluggishness is manifested in inadequate job totals and stagnant incomes"

AfterLos pours the coal on this one thought

With all the massive super massive FED liquidity bombs shouldn't the employment scene really be changing towards full-time employment which is the normal way of looking at work? Not the bs part-time jobs, taking any bs job just to be able to pay the bills, phds taking cabbie or equally crappy paying jobs that plague America now? Think of the brazilian soccer team with Ronaldo, Pele, Ronaldinho and 4 other stars IN THEIR PRIME all thrown into the game against the Deutschland team in 2014 WC - that would be the concomitant, coterminus worldwide resulting, Bah, no brainer!

Hahahahaha, but NOBODY questions this - its become the NEW NORMAL = a new ERA

Just like they were saying in October 2007 - just before the downwave that brought bank of America (Vatican) to its knees and begged on knees to bail her out!

Welcome to Bill Williams stellar research on the true unemployment rate for america - and inflation\fdeflation scenario too. No subscription necessary because this chart is FREE

http://www.shadowstats.com/

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/20/the-new-economic-risk-complacency/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

For my 2 homes, Chiangmai Thailand and Big Island, Hawaii, United States, California not included in this tam boon

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=WN3ME-rgpws

[AfterLOS]

Complacency:

Have a look at the Vix - lowest its been in a loooong time and threatening the all time lows EVER

My prayer to the Vix = don't be cruel when it starts shooting north - have mercy on my friends in America, they have been careless but don't deserve the punishment you're about to deliver!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=YUWMSVDPdGQ

[AfterLOS]

Complacency:

Have a look at the Vix - lowest its been in a loooong time and threatening the all time lows EVER

My prayer to the Vix = don't be cruel when it starts shooting north - have mercy on my friends in America, they have been careless but don't deserve the punishment you're about to deliver!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUWMSVDPdGQ&feature=player_detailpage

[AfterLOS]

For those who don't know the relationship between Volatility and TRENDS, read up on it

Here's what TOTAL COMPLACENCY looks like in the HERD universe - viewed on the United States S&P500 Index

Volatility comes into a farang's life after a period of complacency with a Thai woman - guaranteed! How to ride that volatility wave and not drown in it? Aha! AfterLos rode 2 of them and knows the answer. Just for the record, AfterLos has never been taken to the cleaners by any woman, stateside or other, so the odds of this continuing is in line with the fact, "the trend tends to continue" But watch out for Axiom #2 = until the TREND bends

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/want-see-total-stock-market-182131740.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJ9GDiYU0-I&feature=player_detailpage

[AfterLOS]

Complacency - Warren buffet style:

The Vix - firm weaponry of AfterLos - never leave home without it on your iPAD.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2644020/VIX-fear-index-falls-pre-crash-lows-market-storm.html

http://www.farnsfieldresearch.com/the-greatest-market-crash-in-history-is-it-around-the-corner/

From President Barack Obama's (I voted for him ) hometown in Kenya comes this one played at my home, Santa Monica, CA for 10 years as the opening piece on Saturday's World Beat session

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbE7sARmyNU&feature=player_detailpage

[SheungWan]

The clearest indicator here is that you clearly do not understand anything of how Warren Buffet operates other than some half-digested aphorism.

[MJP]

The clearest indicator here is that you clearly do not understand anything of how Warren Buffet operates other than some half-digested aphorism.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/christopher-quigley/kondratieff-waves-and-the-greater-depression-of-2013-2020

[AfterLOS]

Warren said, "when even taxi drivers are telling everybody about how easy it is to make profits in the stock market, its time to EXIT fast, fast fast"

--------------------------------------------

This has now for the first time in HISTORY been exceeded. Now the super bullish environment has reached such a level of complacency that we have this

investors are now literally afraid to be out of the market. “Few Want to Risk Taking Profits, Missing Gains,” says a June 23 USA Today headline. So it’s now “risky” to take profits!

God help us, this market top is of unprecedented froth

10 years down the road, Mothers in Ethiopia are telling their kids, “Finish your food--do you know how many people are starving in America?”