EDITORIAL
Thai economy needs more than a good image
The Nation

For lasting change, country needs an uncompromising social attitude against corruption

BANGKOK: -- At a recent major business seminar, everyone was speaking about the obvious. Thailand's economic outlook, the participants said, was all right for the short term but highly unpredictable in the long run.

Of course, the vicious political cycle was cited and nobody was confident that another loop of uprising, potential bloodbath, an elected government targeted for abusing its mandate, and then a coup wouldn't happen again.

In addition, some expressed concern that potential investors living far away were getting confused or, worse still, being fed wrong information about Thailand, further compounding the business atmosphere.

What wasn't discussed at the "Thailand is Back" international conference, which was organised by the Federation of Thai Industries and The Nation, was that the long-term prospects have a lot to do with two things: Can the national conscience when it comes to corruption change and will businesses, after decades of having to embrace bad traditions, also shape up?

Imaging something is one thing, a genuine foundation is another. Thailand's economy has been on a roller-coaster because it has been largely riding its luck and not depending on true strengths. In today's world, self-advertisement is undeniably necessary, but it has to go with solid and sustainable qualities. One of the essential qualities is, of course, an uncompromising social attitude against corruption.

Thailand has been poor on the issue of transparency, having always got poor world and Asean rankings in this regard. This has deterred many prospective investors.

But corruption has also been the main source of national strife. Businesses have had to "play along" and pay bribes. Tax evasion is so common that when political leaders were involved in malicious schemes, they were largely defended rather than condemned. The country's business outlook, therefore, does not only concern whether the government is investing in mega-projects, how many foreigners are visiting Thailand or whether exports are doing well. Thailand's economic prospects depend very much on whether the country can do away with years and years of tolerating corruption or accepting it outright.

The export performance is seasonal, and so are tourism figures and state spending. What is permanently important to the economy is the trust issue, or the country's integrity.

Some may say "democracy" alone can improve the economy, and when sceptical countries no longer have doubts, trade relationships can be in full bloom again. What Thailand has experienced over the past decade, however, has proved the assumption to be wrong. Corruption can easily destabilise democracy and in an undermined democracy, no legitimate business can truly flourish.

Alleged corruption affected the overthrown government's rice-pledging scheme and played a role in the programme's massive losses. Political turmoil, in which corruption charges were at the centre, killed at least two mega-projects - a water management scheme and a rail transport overhaul.

These are just some examples of how corruption could hamper or blow away business opportunities. To resolve the political crisis for good, a common ground is needed to restore harmony. But "common ground" is a tricky word sometimes, and it may not work as long as corruption is around.

There is no quick fix for Thailand. Participants at the "Thailand is Back" seminar admitted this. Thais, however, must hope for a "real fix" first, because any measure - economic or political - that is superficial will never end the feared cycle. Image building can only protect the economy for so long, and it's time to really concentrate on the foundation.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Thai-economy-needs-more-than-a-good-image-30240148.html

[thenation]2014-08-04[/thenation]

This article says a lot about the problems Thailand has to see in the future.

I'm follow a blog/forum about the currency from some investors here In thailand and investors look for facks not talks

Thailand has actually find infrastructure projects, but again nothing of substance and so far Just talk, wish investors see a positive signs in the economy, but as long it's not in action, the future cut be bad.

Another imported fact, is Thailand can't just depend on them selves. The world economy has big imported to Thailand.
One ex. Is the FED cut it's junk bond buying by 25 billion this time instead of normal ten.

Look at this picture there will explain how the exchange rate was tried to be manipulated, but good economy data just changed that.

[attachment=277808:image.jpg]

Compare and contrast the rise of the Baht against the USD in the chart above from the 9th July and then the fall of the Baht at the end of July:

The rise of the Baht against the USD was, at best, on the back of hot money for the bond market and the carry trade and, sadly, more hot air from some who really should know better there was neither economic data from Thailand supporting a rise in the Baht nor data from the US which would have supported a fall in the USD.

The fall of the Baht against the USD was supported by economic data from the US (and on more than one front).
While smoke and mirrors can move markets in the short to medium term ultimately, when not supported by hard economic data, they (like Wile E. Coyote) cannot defy the laws of (economic) gravity

Edited August 4, 201411 yr by carstenp

... and then there's the poor English skills, therefor a big communication problem.

... and then there's the poor English skills, therefor a big communication problem.

I'm not quite sure what poor English skills has to do with economy ;)

This issues faced in Thailand are exacerbated by corruption but it is not just the levels of corruption alone that contribute to what could rapidly become Thailand's lost decade. Corruption, is in fact, easily resolved if there were a strong will and determination to do so by the police, the judiciary and the public calling for action. Sadly, there is not.

 

China has identified corruption as a huge threat to not only the economy but the Party and the recent purge on the corrupt elite with powerful Billionaire's being sentenced to death, is a huge deterrent. If China can do it, then why not Thailand? Tough action is needed and a few heads need to roll - not just politicians but also from within the business community fro alleged crimes on a business and personal corruption level.

 

Solving this is just step on the path to solving some of the wider issues facing a country that is rapidly losing its competitiveness and attraction as a place to do business.

International investors are watching Thailand very closely.

 

A few eyebrows have been raised, because at when a time, when one would think that every manoeuvre would be to attract people and foreign exchange, the exact opposite occurs. 

 

Backpackers are going elsewhere, full moon parties shut down. Long term casual stayers denied entry. Ramped up confusion around visas and regulations for foreigners, along with the increasingly enforced bizarre regulations against small foreign owned business's. Will tourism, that mainstay of revenue and supplier of prosperity for so many, get mangled? 

 

Not a time to panic - but a time to put new investment on hold, and see if the leadership has any initiatives to augment the economy. We shall see.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corruption is endemic at every level of Thai society and is, in fact, widely accepted. Indeed, surveys have shown that many Thais believe that some forms of corruption are OK if there is a good outcome for the individual involved. This is the case with school and university entrance, approval for business start-ups and the securing of procurement contracts. While ever this is the mindset there will be problems however, as a previous poster pointed out, it can be reduced through judicious use of the carrot and stick. Unfortunately, in Thailand, there is precious little stick when it comes to law enforcement across the board. Another major factor essential for foreign investment is the certainty of the business environment. If Thailand continues on this vicious cycle of government-in/government out' this will never occur. While I believe that the intervention of the RTA recently was probably necessary to break the political deadlock it is by no means a sustainable strategy. Thailand needs strong law enforcement and bodies like the NACC, Electoral Commission etc. must be strong and free of political interference. Am I holding my breath waiting? No. This is a long-term process and perhaps international business investors will run out of patience as well.

All the good things that the Army is doing and trying to do,

will be quickly return to what has gone on in the past,greed,nepotism,

and corruption,as soon as the politicians return.

regards Worgeordie

All the good things that the Army is doing and trying to do,

will be quickly return to what has gone on in the past,greed,nepotism,

and corruption,as soon as the politicians return.

regards Worgeordie

  Nail on the head

All the good things that the Army is doing and trying to do,
will be quickly return to what has gone on in the past,greed,nepotism,
and corruption,as soon as the politicians return.
regards Worgeordie

Your are of cause right, if this corruption don't stop. I think this junta is trying to stop the corruption and begin law in force on long terms, my opinion will be only small corruption will be here.

Before the army take over, I was reading about 30-40% was going to corruption on project, now is "only" about 15-20%. Much better and hoping for even better figures in the future.

Edited August 4, 201411 yr by carstenp

... and then there's the poor English skills, therefor a big communication problem.

sorry eric, i cant understand what your saying, "therefor" just a simple communication problem i am sure

"For lasting change, country needs an uncompromising social attitude against corruption". You need more than that. You need reform on legal,institutional framework and quality of governance. Weak laws, weak governance and weak government institutions will only be exploited for corruption. Too much red tapes and procedures will invite corruption to compensate for these difficulties. These have grease the wheel of Thai economy for longer than the just the previous government which the writer tried hard to put the blame.

 

All the good things that the Army is doing and trying to do,

will be quickly return to what has gone on in the past,greed,nepotism,

and corruption,as soon as the politicians return.

regards Worgeordie

  Nail on the head

 

 

 

But aren't the majority of new "government" positions being filled by the military and ranking family members of the military are being put in to senior positions?

 

I don't think we will have to wait for politicians to return for the above mentioned to apply?

As any student of international corruption knows, replacing one mafia with a rival mafia does not change ways of doing business which have been practised for centuries. While few business experts would openly support corrupt practises, perhaps they might agree that best one can realistically hope for was summed up by the late great Kwame Nkrumah when he said," The problem in Africa is not corruption - it is disorganized corruption."

The Chinese seem to be making a serious effort to tackle the problem, as indicated by their current investigation of their former
security chief, which breaks the unwritten law that retired senior officers cannot be prosecuted. Does anyone seriously expect the junta to initiate any similar investigations of corruption in the ranks of the retired generals who are now running the country?

"But "common ground" is a tricky word sometimes, and it may not work as long as corruption is around."

 

Corruption more often than not works on both sides, and that is exactly 'common ground'.
 

"Thai economy needs more than a good image"

 

What good image?

 

All the good things that the Army is doing and trying to do,
will be quickly return to what has gone on in the past,greed,nepotism,
and corruption,as soon as the politicians return.
regards Worgeordie

Your are of cause right, if this corruption don't stop. I think this junta is trying to stop the corruption and begin law in force on long terms, my opinion will be only small corruption will be here.

Before the army take over, I was reading about 30-40% was going to corruption on project, now is "only" about 15-20%. Much better and hoping for even better figures in the future.

 

 

A query. Could you tell me just where you read that the junta have managed to reduce alleged project corruption costs from 30-40% to 15-20%, i.e halved, in just 10 weeks?

 

... and then there's the poor English skills, therefor a big communication problem.

I'm not quite sure what poor English skills has to do with economy

 

It has a huge amount. English is the official business language for the new Asean region. Thailand scores very badly on English, this is a concern for investors as Thai is not a widely spoken language outside of Thailand so communication can and is a huge issue.

 

If you can't communicate effectively at Senior and middle management level then investors will see this as a big problem and potentially invest somewhere else.

"Thai economy needs more than a good image"

 

What good image?

I think they are referring to the one thy are trying to build,,, at least I hope so,, they seem to have a grasp on the corruption point I hope they are not so disillusioned that they think Thailand has a good image..

 

They couldn't really think that, could they?,,,

 

All the good things that the Army is doing and trying to do,
will be quickly return to what has gone on in the past,greed,nepotism,
and corruption,as soon as the politicians return.
regards Worgeordie

Your are of cause right, if this corruption don't stop. I think this junta is trying to stop the corruption and begin law in force on long terms, my opinion will be only small corruption will be here.

Before the army take over, I was reading about 30-40% was going to corruption on project, now is "only" about 15-20%. Much better and hoping for even better figures in the future.

 

You cannot eradicate corruption in 10 weeks, I very much doubt it has been halved.

 

There is a general acceptance of corruption right through society as people do not seem to question people in authority. You only have to look at police tea money, blatant corruption that everyone just shrugs and accepts. Also remember the Pattaya police chief publicly announcing that he was expanding the police station with his own money! No one batted and eyelid,,

 

The only way to do this is to create an incorruptible and fully empowered department such as the ICAC in Hong Kong. They are almost wholly responsible for the clean up of Hong Kong which has gone from rampant corruption to a shining example of how to tackle corruption, but it takes years not weeks or months.

 

A department that puts the fear of god into people will immediately push corruption underground, it will have to become more discrete which inevitably means a reduction,, but then big heads will need to roll sending the message that they mean business and are to here to clean house and keep it clean..

 

I cannot ever see it working unless this happens.

This issues faced in Thailand are exacerbated by corruption but it is not just the levels of corruption alone that contribute to what could rapidly become Thailand's lost decade. Corruption, is in fact, easily resolved if there were a strong will and determination to do so by the police, the judiciary and the public calling for action. Sadly, there is not.

 

China has identified corruption as a huge threat to not only the economy but the Party and the recent purge on the corrupt elite with powerful Billionaire's being sentenced to death, is a huge deterrent. If China can do it, then why not Thailand? Tough action is needed and a few heads need to roll - not just politicians but also from within the business community fro alleged crimes on a business and personal corruption level.

 

Solving this is just step on the path to solving some of the wider issues facing a country that is rapidly losing its competitiveness and attraction as a place to do business.

 

Thailand won't survive a "lost decade"

 

the world economy is shaky,

 

Thailand needs to fix the ship fast,

 

TAXES, on all parcels of real estate are a MUST

 

Thailand needs a strong public works sector, and services, which can only be paid by taxes

 

It is time for Thailand to grow up,

 

if the elite don't want to pay 40% of their income, and 25% on the long term capital gains, they need to leave and allow the country to grow up,

 

flights of capital in todays world, are controllable

thailand will only ever be as good as  it is now..if thats good enough for you,then get on board...............improvement''i dont think so''..

Edited August 4, 201411 yr by mok199

With the arrest in Patpong just a few days ago, of an Army General apparently caught red-handed extorting money from vendors, and today, a National Newspaper running an article that claims numerous people are making complaints to the NCPO about the " Army Mafiosa ", will surely start to awaken a huge amount of scepticism about Thailand,s future among many investers and business people across the world, especially as the proposed NCA will be over 50% Military Personel.

Maybe 10 years ago these kind of things could be swept under a carpet, but not today, because of the rapid rise in the Internet and Social Media, and if you do a crime today, the whole world knows about it in 10 minutes flat.

The Good General really has a mammoth task on his hands trying to gain a good International reputation for Thailand, and I sincerely wish him well with that task, as the country, and its good people deserve a decent future, but maybe he has to start looking closer to the Officers Mess for corruption first.

With the arrest in Patpong just a few days ago, of an Army General apparently caught red-handed extorting money from vendors, and today, a National Newspaper running an article that claims numerous people are making complaints to the NCPO about the " Army Mafiosa ", will surely start to awaken a huge amount of scepticism about Thailand,s future among many investers and business people across the world, especially as the proposed NCA will be over 50% Military Personel.
Maybe 10 years ago these kind of things could be swept under a carpet, but not today, because of the rapid rise in the Internet and Social Media, and if you do a crime today, the whole world knows about it in 10 minutes flat.
The Good General really has a mammoth task on his hands trying to gain a good International reputation for Thailand, and I sincerely wish him well with that task, as the country, and its good people deserve a decent future, but maybe he has to start looking closer to the Officers Mess for corruption first.

I am quite amazed anyone got quite so excited about the army apparently clearing up corruption

They may clean up some types of it, but dont hold your breath for a real clean up.

 

"Thai economy needs more than a good image"

 

What good image?

I think they are referring to the one thy are trying to build,,, at least I hope so,, they seem to have a grasp on the corruption point I hope they are not so disillusioned that they think Thailand has a good image..

 

They couldn't really think that, could they?,,,

 

 

 

Many of the ruling elite here thinks that Thailand is on top of the world and can do no wrong.  

So the army's one united organisation eh? That's good. So when one was arrested in Pattaya the other day that means that they were cracking down on one of their own eh? That's a real development then.

 in an undermined democracy, no legitimate business can truly flourish.

 

If only. One only has to look at the corporate takeover of the world's biggest democracies to see what a fallacious statement this is.

 

On both sides of the Atlantic, democracy is being constantly eroded and governments and people are increasingly hostage to the global corporatocracy whose cash puts political parties and presidents into power.

 

The so-called "democratic systems" of the West, in which corporate lobbyists act as gatekeepers to prevent legislation from curbing the worst excesses of so-called free market capitalism, is in essence a gigantic ponzi scheme designed to ensure the dominance of a wealthy elite over an increasingly unrepresented and state-dependent labour force. 

 

The corruption and cronyism endemic in Thailand is a clumsy, small-scale version of the immoral greed-based capitalism (which I call crapitalism), which puts an ever bigger share of the the world's GDP into a relative handful of pockets.

 

It is a sophisticated form of grand larceny.How else, during one of the worst recessions in history, could the number of Western billionaires continue to increase - with, according to the magazine Forbes,  the nauseating promise of the world's first trillionaire confidently expected to be fulfilled later this year.

 

While sales of yachts, private jets and multi-million dollar mansions boom, the vast majority of people in the world's wealthiest nations, are paying a harsh price as the corporate elite schemes to level the global labour playing field.  

 

Millions of ordinary people in the US, EU and UK have lost jobs and homes and hundreds of thousands of families are subsisting below the official poverty line. In cities like London and New York which boasting the world's most famous gourmet restaurants thousands of families would starve without government food stamp or charity food banks. 

 

Anyone who doubts that the levers of political power are now manipulated by the banking cartels and their big business partners needs only to examine a clutch of new "free trade" agreements currently being foisted on countries across the world. 

 

Under the terms of the secretly negotiated Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), governments which seek to seek to regulate the activities of mega corporations risk being taken to an "independent" tribunal and fined huge sums in notional lost profit - money which will have to be reclaimed from the taxpayer.

 

Arguably even more alarming are the implications two more clandestinely negotiated blueprints furthering the interests of the banking/industrial corporatocracy, the Transatlantic Trade And Investment Partnership (TTIP) and Trade In Services Agreement (TISA). If you interested in knowing more I suggest, for starters, this link: http://www.globalresearch.ca/another-secret-trade-agreement-tisa/5388505

 

Few people outside of government buildings and the boardrooms of big business have even heard of these hush-hush deals, largely ignored by the corporate-controlled mass media (surprise, surprise) and now being pushed through by political leaders bought with corporate money and guaranteed a cosy retirement under the notorious "revolving-door" system.

 

If you think all this makes the shenanigans in Thailand look pretty small beer, you are right. Whether the Land of Smiles remains under the present military regime for years to come or quickly reverts to  "democratic" government, the chances of escaping the clutches of the corporate octopus are slim.

 

The nation's biggest hope may well lie in abandoning aspirations to become another "free trade" hub - which means to be milked of its natural resources - and instead follow the wisdom of their far-seeing monarch by encouraging self-sufficiency via small-scale community and collective projects, which offer at least some protection from the ravages of rampant crapitalism.

 

Maybe the Isaan model has more going for it than we thought.

 

 

All the good things that the Army is doing and trying to do,
will be quickly return to what has gone on in the past,greed,nepotism,
and corruption,as soon as the politicians return.
regards Worgeordie

Your are of cause right, if this corruption don't stop. I think this junta is trying to stop the corruption and begin law in force on long terms, my opinion will be only small corruption will be here.

Before the army take over, I was reading about 30-40% was going to corruption on project, now is "only" about 15-20%. Much better and hoping for even better figures in the future.
 

 
A query. Could you tell me just where you read that the junta have managed to reduce alleged project corruption costs from 30-40% to 15-20%, i.e halved, in just 10 weeks?

Yes of course .. Here is the link http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/745524-thai-editorial-corruption-abates-slightly-but-not-nearly-enough/

Sorry not 30-40% but 25-35% I remembered wrong
The survey also showed that bribes paid to officials and politicians by the private sector had declined to 15-25 per cent of project costs, from an average 25-35 per cent previously.

Edited August 4, 201411 yr by carstenp

 

All the good things that the Army is doing and trying to do,
will be quickly return to what has gone on in the past,greed,nepotism,
and corruption,as soon as the politicians return.
regards Worgeordie

Your are of cause right, if this corruption don't stop. I think this junta is trying to stop the corruption and begin law in force on long terms, my opinion will be only small corruption will be here.

Before the army take over, I was reading about 30-40% was going to corruption on project, now is "only" about 15-20%. Much better and hoping for even better figures in the future.
 

You cannot eradicate corruption in 10 weeks, I very much doubt it has been halved.
 
There is a general acceptance of corruption right through society as people do not seem to question people in authority. You only have to look at police tea money, blatant corruption that everyone just shrugs and accepts. Also remember the Pattaya police chief publicly announcing that he was expanding the police station with his own money! No one batted and eyelid,,
 
The only way to do this is to create an incorruptible and fully empowered department such as the ICAC in Hong Kong. They are almost wholly responsible for the clean up of Hong Kong which has gone from rampant corruption to a shining example of how to tackle corruption, but it takes years not weeks or months.
 
A department that puts the fear of god into people will immediately push corruption underground, it will have to become more discrete which inevitably means a reduction,, but then big heads will need to roll sending the message that they mean business and are to here to clean house and keep it clean..
 
I cannot ever see it working unless this happens.

I can only tell what I read.. But here is the link http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/745524-thai-editorial-corruption-abates-slightly-but-not-nearly-enough/

Sorry not 30-40% but 25-35% I remembered wrong
The survey also showed that bribes paid to officials and politicians by the private sector had declined to 15-25 per cent of project costs, from an average 25-35 per cent previously.

Edited August 4, 201411 yr by carstenp

 

 

 

All the good things that the Army is doing and trying to do,
will be quickly return to what has gone on in the past,greed,nepotism,
and corruption,as soon as the politicians return.
regards Worgeordie

Your are of cause right, if this corruption don't stop. I think this junta is trying to stop the corruption and begin law in force on long terms, my opinion will be only small corruption will be here.

Before the army take over, I was reading about 30-40% was going to corruption on project, now is "only" about 15-20%. Much better and hoping for even better figures in the future.
 

You cannot eradicate corruption in 10 weeks, I very much doubt it has been halved.
 
There is a general acceptance of corruption right through society as people do not seem to question people in authority. You only have to look at police tea money, blatant corruption that everyone just shrugs and accepts. Also remember the Pattaya police chief publicly announcing that he was expanding the police station with his own money! No one batted and eyelid,,
 
The only way to do this is to create an incorruptible and fully empowered department such as the ICAC in Hong Kong. They are almost wholly responsible for the clean up of Hong Kong which has gone from rampant corruption to a shining example of how to tackle corruption, but it takes years not weeks or months.
 
A department that puts the fear of god into people will immediately push corruption underground, it will have to become more discrete which inevitably means a reduction,, but then big heads will need to roll sending the message that they mean business and are to here to clean house and keep it clean..
 
I cannot ever see it working unless this happens.

I can only tell what I read.. But here is the link http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/745524-thai-editorial-corruption-abates-slightly-but-not-nearly-enough/

Sorry not 30-40% but 25-35% I remembered wrong
The survey also showed that bribes paid to officials and politicians by the private sector had declined to 15-25 per cent of project costs, from an average 25-35 per cent previously.

 

 

Well it is truly outstanding then that the price of projects like the infrastructure initiative have not decreased in price, as written about but not mentioned in the other paper today.