REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Hun Sen's charm offensive in Thailand
Kavi Chongkittavorn
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- While staying behind in Phnom Pehn, Prime Minister Hun Sen was on a charm offensive in Thailand to hand an olive branch and show off his country's future leader. He dispatched all his top military brass, headed by Defence Minister Tea Banh, for a two-day visit.

But one man stood out - Lt-General Hun Manet, 37, the deputy army chief, the eldest son of Hun Sen, the region's longest-reigning leader. Make no mistake, it is at the Thai capital that the anointed future leader of Cambodia is making his presence felt. It was a calculated move by his father.

Thailand and Cambodia have once again kissed and made up. The longstanding dispute over the Preah Vihear/Phra Viharn Temple and the demarcation line which caused several brief border wars and numerous casualties on both sides has been cast aside for now. The ruling by the International Court of Justice last November will be implemented once both sides are ready to assure a peaceful border and tourism prospects.

This kind of Thai-Cambodian camaraderie and goodwill was extremely rare even during the two-year reign of Yingluck, whose brother Thaksin once served as an economic adviser to Hun Sen. The relations were correct and calm but lacked the present dynamics.

In the first instance, the Cambodian delegation expressed satisfaction with the return of an estimated 250,000 workers despite the earlier misunderstanding that led to an exodus across the border. They are now back to work with "single-stop" facilitation offices set up by the National Council for Peace and Order (NPCO). With Cambodia's economic slow-down and the high cost of living, the untimely return of a huge number of workers could cause economic havoc in the country.

Albeit high in symbolism, the visit has nonetheless rebooted Thai-Cambodian relationship to a new level as there were no differences during the heart-to-heart meeting, only concurrence on priorities related to their countries' stability and economic progress. Obviously, both sides need each other more than ever before to move forward.

The NPCO needs time and a peaceful eastern border to consolidate domestic reforms and improve its international image. A cooperative and hands-off Cambodia that is at peace would certainly help. Likewise, Hun Sen also wants political stability on the home front after last week's political breakthrough with his rival, Sam Rainsy, following a full year of political impasse.

A fully functioning parliament with the opposition party's participation will help give Hun Sen some much-needed credibility within Asean and the international community, which helped to rebuild Cambodia in 1991. A stable Thailand will boost economic benefits for Cambodia and its people with more investment and jobs.

True to his Machiavellian instinct, Hun Sen knows well the winners in Thai politics as he has witnessed the rise and fall of 13 Thai prime ministers since 1979. The best way to woo the military junta and jump-start anew with Thailand is now by calling on them and at the same time introducing the leader-in-waiting, Hun Manet, to senior Thai colleagues. After all, he is young and can be humble. In the Thai and Cambodian tradition, when the young comes for a visit seniors must respond with full generosity, and no malicious intent; indeed, a blessing in disguise. Lest we forget, the young general was a well-known figure throughout the Thai-Cambodian border conflict a few years back. Stories were abound how he braved the enemy's bullets and artillery fire to direct his troops for counterattacks that caused great casualties to the enemy across the border. He also negotiated a temporary ceasefire with Thailand in February 2010.

At home, Hun Sen, 61, is contemplating his future. What kind of legacy does he leave for the Cambodian people? For a full three decades, he has ruled with an iron-fist and turned the once war-torn nation into one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia. He transformed it from a centrally planned to a market-oriented economy, luring foreign investors. In 1994, Cambodia's per capita income was US$348 and today its is $1,009 - a three-fold increase. The poverty level dropped to 30 per cent in 2007 from 39 per cent in 1994.

The government hopes to reduce it to 25 per cent next year when it is integrated with the Asean Community. Unfortunately, records of rampaging corruption, abuse of power and lack of governance trumped positive indexes and delayed social progress.

With the shocking outcome of last year's election, it has suddenly dawned on Hun Sen that he has gradually lost popularity and his grip on power. Before the poll, he was confident of victory for his party, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP). He did not even bother to campaign much. His opponent, Sam Rainsy, the leader of Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), seized the opportunity and mobilised supporters, many of them young first-time voters, to take part in the poll.

His party won handsomely with 55 seats while the CPP got just 68, a loss of 22 seats from the 2008 election. The CNRP cried foul and called for an independent investigation of voting fraud. For the past one year, politics in Cambodia has been stuck in a tussle between the two sides.

It remains to be seen how Samdech Akeak Moha Sena Padey Decho Hun Sen can leave a lasting legacy that can match up with the much revered King Norodom Sihanouk. Hun Sen is changing his hardline attitude to a more sanguine one, to display his soft and positive side to attract younger Cambodians, who have turned against him. He hopes his children, all in their thirties, would lead the way and engage the Cambodian youth. Eventually, with a normal functioning parliament and a rule-based society and acceptance of his chosen leader, Hun Sen can find an exit strategy despite his pledge to stay on in power until 74 years old.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Hun-Sens-charm-offensive-in-Thailand-30240154.html

[thenation]2014-08-04[/thenation]

Hun Sen and charm do not go together. Hun Sen and offensive ok, but NOT charm.

Hun Sen has probably realised if you lie with dogs you get their fleas, hence his rejection of certain self presumed influential Thai politicians who wanted to use both Hun Sen and his nation as a springboard to return them self to power in Thailand.

 

Hun Sen is playing the political self preservation power game in a very adroit fashion unlike his former ally.

Edited August 4, 201411 yr by siampolee

Hun Sen was ex-Khmer Rouge.

 

 

'Nuff said!

The mention of Thailand and Cambodia needing one another could raise some strong debate.  My argument would be that Thailand needs nothing from Cambodia.

 

 If you say the army of workers I say there is a bigger worker army on the Western boarder who would be happy to work in LOS. 

"Beware of Cambodians bearing gifts"

regards Worgeordie

General P's. Carrot and stick diplomacy wins again.
Cambodia relies heavily on Thailand's financial support. The return of up to a quarter of a million employees and suffering the loss of repatriated income would be quite a blow to their economy. Not to mention the various regional aid and infrastructure development programs auspiced by Thailand.
Hun sen didn't show because he has been put into a corner.

I don't like Hun Sen. But stupid he's not. 

 

He can see an opening for his economy to capitalise on the rogering of the tourism and small foreign enterprises in Thailand - and potentially millions of dollars being diverted to Cambodia.  Doubtless he'll be encouraging the present leadership that their "crackdown" approach has great merit and is an excellent and most proper course of action. 

 

Upon returning home, he'll be calling his friends and family and telling them: "It's time to open up Cambodia, get those real estate developers here now, ramp up the facilities, lets get this show on the road."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

Poor little Oak (sic)...he can only gaze at Manet tripping the lights fantastic of Bangkok and wonder where it all went wrong.

I thought he was best buddies with takism,something I would be careful with, before I jump in the bed

Having seen Hun Sen posturing over the years the one thing he doesn't have is charm.

Hun Sen and charm do not go together. Hun Sen and offensive ok, but NOT charm.

 

There is an old saying: "keep your friends close, but keep your enemies even closer!"
 

The seed was already planted with a Shinawatra wedding to the son of Hun Sen's right hand man recently. The dirty deed is done and his legacy has crossed borders already.

Hun Sen was ex-Khmer Rouge.

 

 

'Nuff said!

 

 

I think your condemnation of the Khmer Rouge will be falling on some deaf ears in Thailand - they had/have an interesting "special relationship" over the years. Some research into Task Force 838 may reveal some interesting nuggets.

Hun Sen and charm do not go together. Hun Sen and offensive ok, but NOT charm.

 

I don't lie HS, but he is smart....he stays with the winner......If the military stops and it looks like Thaksin wins again HS will start barking again.

I thought he was best buddies with takism,something I would be careful with, before I jump in the bed

Yes I believe they were good pals years back but there was a story it had cooled over a business dispute but can't remember details.

 

Birds of a feather !

Time for caution

Hun Sen was ex-Khmer Rouge.

 

 

'Nuff said!

 

In Cambodia '75 to '79, you were either Khmer Rouge, or being shot and buried by one. In 1979 Hun Sen broke ranks from the Eastern Divn to alert the Vietnamese Army about the atrocities. The Vietnamese liberated the Cambodians from the KR immediately afterwards.

Coming to his understanding that Thaksin isn't coming back, he has to change the course of his country.

If he doesn't want to loose grip of his slaves, he has to get on good terms with the new Thai order, or he has nothing left to please his fellow Cambodians.

If he doesn't kiss ass in Thailand soon, he will loose the faith of the people and will loose in next elections.

But one must see the corrupt thinking of this man, instating his son as a heir to the post makes me feel a bit like another Asian country, starting with the North..........

and then I do not mean North Carolina