Real Estate Bubble

[mesquite]

My point was there is no reason to be in CM, except for the low costs and easy lifestyle.

[mesquite]

Read post 88. That's what I was commenting on originally. It's about Arlington.

Edited August 10, 2014 by mesquite

[Thailand]

Huh! Arlington or Chiang Mai, which one is the thread about!

The Arlington in Chiang Mai province of course.

[Thighlander]

but there are a lot of places around the World with similar stories on appreciation. I think the DOW is up 900% since 1980 +/-. The baby boomers are set to inherit 20,000,000,000,000 USD in the coming years......There's just a lot of candidates to keep the growth and appreciation going here in Chiang Mai.

THe USMC paid 25 USD per acre for El Toro Marine Base in 1942. In 2005, they sold it to a developer for 150,000 USD per acre. Close to 600,000% appreciation in 63 years.......just more proof that in the long run; renters get slaughtered.

[chiang mai]

I'm well confused, I wrote a piece that challenged the population figures quoted above and then realized you were talking about a different country! Important I suppose to stay alert in these threads, the subject and direction can change so rapidly.

Anyway, as I was saying, I don't believe there's any reasoned argument to support a five percent increase in the price of Walkers crisps, it's just opportunism and rampant profiteering. Next!

[northernjohn]

but there are a lot of places around the World with similar stories on appreciation. I think the DOW is up 900% since 1980 +/-. The baby boomers are set to inherit 20,000,000,000,000 USD in the coming years......There's just a lot of candidates to keep the growth and appreciation going here in Chiang Mai.

THe USMC paid 25 USD per acre for El Toro Marine Base in 1942. In 2005, they sold it to a developer for 150,000 USD per acre. Close to 600,000% appreciation in 63 years.......just more proof that in the long run; renters get slaughtered.

You give figures for all kinds of places in the world but when it comes to Chiang Mai you are just giving opinions. Why is that? Are there no real figures for Chiang Mai? When I say real figures I am not interest in one transaction. I am interested in the over all picture.

[mesquite]

but there are a lot of places around the World with similar stories on appreciation. I think the DOW is up 900% since 1980 +/-. The baby boomers are set to inherit 20,000,000,000,000 USD in the coming years......There's just a lot of candidates to keep the growth and appreciation going here in Chiang Mai.

THe USMC paid 25 USD per acre for El Toro Marine Base in 1942. In 2005, they sold it to a developer for 150,000 USD per acre. Close to 600,000% appreciation in 63 years.......just more proof that in the long run; renters get slaughtered.

I see your point and felt Arlington was not a good example to compare CM to. Maybe Manhattan Beach, CA or Maui, Hawaii, places people move to because they're nice places to live. The whole world seems to want to vacation in CM, so if that same whole world wants to move to CM, well, real estate should go up over the long run. But there's a lot of empty real estate to build on, so who knows.

[CHRISTIANa9]

Thai wife and I own properties in CM and BKK. Just sold a condo in BKK which we purchased in 2008, for the exact same price. And feel damn lucky to have unloaded it. Fortunately it had been rented by a tenant the entire time, so that was our only gain. We're trying to unload another condo in BKK, but not even a nibble yet. Frankly, putting that money in bonds or other reasonably safe investments would have brought far better returns. Land price in central CM has increased significantly since 2010, so our property value here has nearly doubled. I'm talking about land, not condos btw. We don't want to build on it anymore so we're trying to unload this land too, but the value has gotten so high that the number of potential buyers is quite limited. We may be stuck with it for very long time..

From driving around CM, I'm seeing an insane amount of townhouses and condos, if you drive by them at night you can see just how many are occupied. In many blocks it's not unusual to see the lights on in only one unit. There are certain area of town that are just wall to wall units on both sides of the street and I have to wonder who would ever want to live in a characterless ghetto like that. I've even seen vacant land in front of condos, which you'd think is so small that it could never be built up, is suddenly a towering block of units totally blocking the view of the original building. I just spotted a block of townhouses on a soi off of Nimmanheman which has halted construction and is now for sale by the developer. A friend who is a real estate agent tells me that the developers are approaching her now to sell their units, which a year ago never happened because the developers normally try to keep their sales force in house. To me it appears to be a combination of utter greed and utter foolishness on behalf of the developers at this point. I'd also blame the city for not properly planning for growth - our apartment in Santitham is struggling to keep the electricity and water running 24/7.

I've been watching the ridiculous housing prices in my home town of Sydney for 15 years and every single year I predict it can't possibly keep going higher, and yet nearly every year they have 10%+ growth. Most recent growth there seems to be on the back of the Chinese investors, and perhaps that's what's happening here too.

Is this a bubble? I dunno, but surely something has got to give...

Sydney is land locked. Mountain range on one side and sea on the other. No comparision.

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[hagler]

yawn.

been hearing this same topic of conversation from when I bought my first piece of real estate in the Kingdom in 1990 and have heard it every year since.

Still buying on average a property a year. Values still going up. Just bought another 2 condos this week while in town checking on the current tenants. Prices still rising.

You either got the kahooners to lay down some dough or you dont. Hopefully the status quo doesnt ever change and the 95% of people who talk about buying real estate in any foreign country find every excuse not to so something end up doing something. Lets the 5% of us continue to do so and to make our money.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

But I also hear many Thai people (especially older ones) much prefer land ownership to condos, yet over 50% of condos are thai owned- by law.

Some developers don't finish or sell the 51% for Thais.

Others sell to foreigners using a company name or Thai proxy owner.

I'm betting the real ownership of new condos in CM is well below the 51% official level.

[mesquite]

I agree that there are many sub markets in Chiang Mai split by geography, price and housing type. But a major correction in the market will drive all segments down but at differing rates. The condo market could hold up a little better because of the higher percentage of foreign buyers. Those markets that have the highest leverage will suffer most. Part of my concern began when I visited several housing developments (non-condo) that we requiring only 50,000 baht down on 3 to 4 million baht properties.

That 50k down is most likely just the amount required to hold the property until you try and get financing from a bank.

I don't know about now but in the past many places had a 5,000 baht deposit and then you made payments for a couple of years just to build up the required down payment the banks required.

Exactly, Wolf'. This gives good insight into the knowledge of the market by some. 50,000 won't get you a lease on a 3-5 million THB property, if you are paying two months deposit plus first months rent. Could probably be enough "key money" for a deceased AIDS patient's Hillside 4 studio. It's part of a strict schedule of payments that will get you 20% down, and you will have to come up with the other 80% plus transfer fees, when it is completed. I can't remember the last time I saw a builder offering financing here....maybe never....they might have a preferred lender; but they aren't giving a farang a mortgage. Some will send you to a Singapore Bank, and it is way tougher than the US. You will need a large downpayment and verifiable current employment income. It is also illegal to have a mortgage past age 65 in Thailand.

Every thing can be fixed with a developer who wants to sell, and their contact in a Thai bank.

Home loan (90%) with falsified employment details (as in no employment at all), totally doable.

Exactly the type of thing that was going on in the US and led to the housing market collapse. You had cab drivers buying $500,000 houses with no money down, based on their phony income.

[cmsally]

Thai wife and I own properties in CM and BKK. Just sold a condo in BKK which we purchased in 2008, for the exact same price. And feel damn lucky to have unloaded it. Fortunately it had been rented by a tenant the entire time, so that was our only gain. We're trying to unload another condo in BKK, but not even a nibble yet. Frankly, putting that money in bonds or other reasonably safe investments would have brought far better returns. Land price in central CM has increased significantly since 2010, so our property value here has nearly doubled. I'm talking about land, not condos btw. We don't want to build on it anymore so we're trying to unload this land too, but the value has gotten so high that the number of potential buyers is quite limited. We may be stuck with it for very long time..

From driving around CM, I'm seeing an insane amount of townhouses and condos, if you drive by them at night you can see just how many are occupied. In many blocks it's not unusual to see the lights on in only one unit. There are certain area of town that are just wall to wall units on both sides of the street and I have to wonder who would ever want to live in a characterless ghetto like that. I've even seen vacant land in front of condos, which you'd think is so small that it could never be built up, is suddenly a towering block of units totally blocking the view of the original building. I just spotted a block of townhouses on a soi off of Nimmanheman which has halted construction and is now for sale by the developer. A friend who is a real estate agent tells me that the developers are approaching her now to sell their units, which a year ago never happened because the developers normally try to keep their sales force in house. To me it appears to be a combination of utter greed and utter foolishness on behalf of the developers at this point. I'd also blame the city for not properly planning for growth - our apartment in Santitham is struggling to keep the electricity and water running 24/7.

I've been watching the ridiculous housing prices in my home town of Sydney for 15 years and every single year I predict it can't possibly keep going higher, and yet nearly every year they have 10%+ growth. Most recent growth there seems to be on the back of the Chinese investors, and perhaps that's what's happening here too.

Is this a bubble? I dunno, but surely something has got to give...

Sydney is land locked. Mountain range on one side and sea on the other. No comparision.

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Sydney is indeed landlocked and I would say comparable to Vancouver. In the eyes of the Chinese very comparable, with water in front and mountains behind, (apparently very good Feng Shui).

[sfokevin]

Without Loy Kroh Road Chiang Mai is the Santa Fe NM of Thailand....

Edited August 10, 2014 by sfokevin

[Thighlander]

Without Loy Kroh Road Chiang Mai is the Santa Fe NM of Thailand....

There are more University students in Chiang Mai than in the entire state of New Mexico.

[Thighlander]

yawn.

been hearing this same topic of conversation from when I bought my first piece of real estate in the Kingdom in 1990 and have heard it every year since.

Still buying on average a property a year. Values still going up. Just bought another 2 condos this week while in town checking on the current tenants. Prices still rising.

You either got the kahooners to lay down some dough or you dont. Hopefully the status quo doesnt ever change and the 95% of people who talk about buying real estate in any foreign country find every excuse not to so something end up doing something. Lets the 5% of us continue to do so and to make our money.

Exactly....or you don't even have the dough to buy if you wanted to.....when prices dropped 75% in Las Vegas and Phoenix, a high percentage of the Renter Chorus still didn't buy. The sheep are always the last to buy and the first to get slaughtered. Bahahahahaha......they sure did jump at Obama's offer to go on 200 USD per month in Food Stamps.

[chiang mai]

Without Loy Kroh Road Chiang Mai is the Santa Fe NM of Thailand....

There are more University students in Chiang Mai than in the entire state of New Mexico.

It's time to ante up on that one, link please.

[Thighlander]

UNM enrollment 27,000.....NM State enrollment 17,000.......Western NMU 3500......the number is close to 70,000 in Chiang Mai.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Without Loy Kroh Road Chiang Mai is the Santa Fe NM of Thailand....

There are more University students in Chiang Mai than in the entire state of New Mexico.

It's time to ante up on that one, link please.

64,000 students enrolled in CM

http://www.chiangmainews.com/indepth/details.php?id=2485

28,000 students in New Mexico

http://colleges.findthebest.com/q/2664/22/How-many-students-go-to-University-of-New-Mexico-UNM

Edited August 10, 2014 by AnotherOneAmerican

[chiang mai]

Without Loy Kroh Road Chiang Mai is the Santa Fe NM of Thailand....

There are more University students in Chiang Mai than in the entire state of New Mexico.

It's time to ante up on that one, link please.

64,000 students enrolled in CM

http://www.chiangmainews.com/indepth/details.php?id=2485

28,000 students in New Mexico

http://colleges.findthebest.com/q/2664/22/How-many-students-go-to-University-of-New-Mexico-UNM

Big Fail!

I was hoping for a semi - reliable comparison, not simply one editorial in a Chiang Mai backwoodsvmagazine, versus the number of students potentially attending UNM in the year dot!

Are you OK today?

[chiang mai]

UNM enrollment 27,000.....NM State enrollment 17,000.......Western NMU 3500......the number is close to 70,000 in Chiang Mai.

I said, link please, pretty please!

BTW the population of NM is circa 2 Mill. so apples and apples please, the US population is over 312 mill..

Edited August 10, 2014 by chiang mai

[mesquite]

yawn.

been hearing this same topic of conversation from when I bought my first piece of real estate in the Kingdom in 1990 and have heard it every year since.

Still buying on average a property a year. Values still going up. Just bought another 2 condos this week while in town checking on the current tenants. Prices still rising.

You either got the kahooners to lay down some dough or you dont. Hopefully the status quo doesnt ever change and the 95% of people who talk about buying real estate in any foreign country find every excuse not to so something end up doing something. Lets the 5% of us continue to do so and to make our money.

So everyone is happy!

BTW, the US stock market has been going up, and investing in that requires no work.

[mr chow]

FACT

It is cheaper to live in florida than CHIANG MAI ! I know I've lived in both. Same climate. Food cheaper. Gas cheaper. Cars cheaper. Medicare. Golf cheaper. The list goes on? Most other things cheaper.

2 million baht....( thanks to a bubble )

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[Chao Lao Beach]

The difference between the western housing boom and the Thai version is that the credit market is much tighter in Thailand than the west... Most of the un-occupied homes you see in Chiang Mai are not leveraged... The same is far from the truth in the west...

In my opinion, I disagree, most Thai owned one I see are heavily leveraged and the "farlang" owned ones are owned, paid up front.

It doen't need to bust to make some good coin out of this though, a few burps here and there and many will be screwed.

[Thighlander]

FACT

It is cheaper to live in florida than CHIANG MAI ! I know I've lived in both. Same climate. Food cheaper. Gas cheaper. Cars cheaper. Medicare. Golf cheaper. The list goes on? Most other things cheaper.

2 million baht....( thanks to a bubble )

ImageUploadedByThaivisa Connect Thailand1407674769.900800.jpg

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Florida is the Pattaya of the US; a large collection of crooks, con artists, and gypsies. Who needs a car in Chiang Mai? If you are in poor health; you are probably better off on Medicare...that has been discussed before. How much are your property taxes? Homeowners Insurance? Water/sewer/trash? More Jews than Israel; more Africans than Liberia.....Habla Espanol?

[northernjohn]

Without Loy Kroh Road Chiang Mai is the Santa Fe NM of Thailand....

There are more University students in Chiang Mai than in the entire state of New Mexico.

It's time to ante up on that one, link please.

Is there any link that covers all the colleges in both areas. I know there is several here in Chiang Mai and have no idea of New Mexico. Am sure they have two state run ones.

Edited August 10, 2014 by northernjohn

[mr chow]

Let's see. Oh, we were talking about a bubble during economic downturns. Methinks there is a racist on this forum. Right Thigh lander? (Real estate taxes$600 per yr)

Due to various reasons real estate in parts of the US is very attractive. Supply and demand will eventually lead to a correction

In the chiang mai real estate market. Sooner or later opportunities like the one in florida will be available in thailand. Remember,

The first country to go in the asian crisis of'97 was thailand! ( I know,due to currency speculation)

Now thighlander........i will go and order my pastrami sandwich in Spanish and listen to some rap music. And by the way, Spanish a lot easier than thai, I mean a lot. And how's your pastrami there. Finally,check out the music the kids are listening to in the clubs.

But you got me. Thai food and thai companionship is cheaper ( unless your married).

P.S. How that cable TV working for ya? And apparently you're on the Palestinian side. News flash....they're losing!!!!

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[heybruce]

FACT

It is cheaper to live in florida than CHIANG MAI ! I know I've lived in both. Same climate. Food cheaper. Gas cheaper. Cars cheaper. Medicare. Golf cheaper. The list goes on? Most other things cheaper.

2 million baht....( thanks to a bubble )

ImageUploadedByThaivisa Connect Thailand1407674769.900800.jpg

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Florida is the Pattaya of the US; a large collection of crooks, con artists, and gypsies. Who needs a car in Chiang Mai? If you are in poor health; you are probably better off on Medicare...that has been discussed before. How much are your property taxes? Homeowners Insurance? Water/sewer/trash? More Jews than Israel; more Africans than Liberia.....Habla Espanol?

Regarding the "crooks, con artists, and gypsies", what kind of places do you hang out in? Regarding costs, some are higher in Florida than in Thailand, some are lower. The bursting of the housing bubble did create some bargains, and some are still there. Regarding the diversity, I think it's a good thing, Florida would be a dull state without it. Finally, while I'm badly out of practice, I do speak Spanish, and I can't begin to describe how much easier it was to learn than Thai.

Regarding investing in property where I'm reasonably confident of being able to legally buy and hold property with decent appreciation potential, I think that for a westerner who invests wisely Florida is a much better bet than Chiang Mai.

[heybruce]

Without Loy Kroh Road Chiang Mai is the Santa Fe NM of Thailand....

This is off-topic, and I admit I haven't been to Santa Fe since the '90's, but I can't think of any way in which the two cities are remotely comparable.

[Thighlander]

My uncle told me.....think he might know?

[heybruce]

My uncle told me.....think he might know?

I think he might need to get out of Miami. There's a lot more to the state than that patch of (temporarily) drained swampland. Judging all of Florida by what you've heard about the worst of Miami is akin to judging all of Thailand by what you've heard about the worst of Pattaya.

Edited August 10, 2014 by heybruce