Time to switch tracks in deep South peace process

[Lite Beer]

Time to switch tracks in deep South peace process
Don Pathan
Special to The Nation 
 

Members of a bomb squad inspect damaged vehicles after a car bomb exploded outside a hotel in Yala

 

BANGKOK: -- Direct talks between Thai security forces and the separatist leaders controlling combatant insurgents may be the only way to build trust

The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) is having a difficult time explaining to the Malaysian government that there will be a serious adjustment to the role Kuala Lumpur had been playing in peace talks launched under the government of Yingluck Shinawatra.

The NCPO is hoping that Malaysia will understand that it has other priorities and that the peace talks with the so-called Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinate (BRN-C) and others, an initiative that was launched in Kuala Lumpur on February 28 last year, will progress according to a new course.

The military has not followed the example of the 2006 coup-makers, who ousted Thaksin Shinawatra, by citing the government's handling of the unrest in the southernmost provinces as one of their reasons for seizing power. This time around, the military pointed to the political deadlock to justify their ouster of the Pheu Thai government.

Moreover, the Army was not exactly "on board" with the February 28 initiative, which was the work of a few trusted bureaucrats along with the Pheu Thai's Wadah politicians closely aligned with Thaksin and his sister.

While giving the impression it was going along with the government, the military at the same time looked for ways to hamper the Kuala Lumpur-backed peace talks, a job that had historically been under its purview.

One way to rock the boat was to permit the return to Thailand of Wan Kadir Che Man, the former leader of the now-defunct Bersatu separatist umbrella group and the founder of long-standing separatist movement, Barisan Islam Pembangunan Pattani (BIPP). The Thai Army knew that Wan Kadir was not in favour of having a third party, especially Malaysia, at the negotiating table. He had been suggesting all along at private meetings with the Thai side that any talks at this point should be strictly between the Thai side and the separatist movements.

During his three visits to Thailand between December 2013 and January, Wan Kadir didn't mince words in his disapproval of Malaysia, or Western NGOs for that matter, as mediators for the talks.

Then came the first anniversary of the February 28 initiative and a declaration by designated facilitator Dato Ahmad Zamzamin Hashim, former spy chief of Malaysia, that all three factions of the Patani United Liberation Organisation (Pulo) and the BIPP would be joining the peace talks.

Wan Kadir, who no longer runs the BIPP, was dismissive of the claim that the group he had helped create was the same one now joining the talks, saying people could call themselves anything nowadays. The reality, he said, was that people with command and control over the insurgents on the ground had yet to surface because the atmosphere was not conducive to them going public.

The claim of progress in talks had some in the international community scratching their heads when, two months later, in April this year, foreign embassies in Bangkok issued travel warnings, citing new information indicating that insurgents might be targeting Westerners.

Although the warnings did not name the separatist organisations suspected of targeting foreigners - something that has never happened before in the history of the deep South insurgency - a source said that Thai authorities had singled out one of the groups set to be joining the peace talks.

Leaders in the separatist community, including BRN cadres, are dismissive of the claim that insurgents could be targeting Westerners. They believe the information was part of counter-intelligence issued to discredit the "progress" towards peace being claimed by the Pheu Thai government.

But with the change of power brought by the coup, the ball is now in the Army's court. It's one thing to sit on the sidelines criticising a (Pheu Thai) government peace initiative and rocking the boat. It's another thing to be in sole control of the country's governance, with no critics or real opposition to contend with.

The junta thought that announcing the continuation of peace talks, with secretary-general of the National Security Council Thawil Pliensri in charge, would ease the concerns of other stakeholders about the future of the peace process.

But Kuala Lumpur, which traditionally sees Thailand's Malay-speaking South as its own backyard, would like to see a firmer commitment from Bangkok. In contrast, Thawil comes across to many observers as a "lame duck" looking forward to a retirement which is just months away.

According to one Malaysian source, what Kuala Lumpur would like to see is a statement from the NCPO saying that it will respect the memorandum of understanding signed on February 28, 2013 by the three parties.

But what Kuala Lumpur wants and what Kuala Lumpur gets may be two different things, Thai officials say.

It took the junta chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha nearly two months following the coup to say anything in public about the conflict in the deep South. That goes to show that he has other priorities and that the insurgency is not exactly high on his list.

Moreover, the designated BRN "liaison", Hassan Taib, has managed to wriggle his way out of having to represent a movement that never gave him the necessary mandate or moral support to play the role that Kuala Lumpur and the Yingluck government had designed for him.

One way out of this fiasco is to proceed along two tracks. Track One would be an inclusive, official process for international and public consumption, which would save Malaysia's face and "keep them happy", said a Thai security official.

The second track, on the other hand, would be talks between Thai security forces and mid-ranking separatist leaders who have direct command over the combatant insurgents.

The idea with the latter track is to go after issues within reach, such as rules of engagement - which could evolve into more tangible issues, such as declaring demilitarised zones on certain roads and in certain communities.

Thai soldiers in the South have said that addressing non-political issues at this level is the only way for the two sides to build any trust and traction that could eventually lead to a more meaningful peace process.

A BRN cadre said that the top-down approach employed by the Yingluck government could only work if there was a strong chain of command within the separatist movements. But the reality is that the separatists' command-and-control chain is fluid and has never been tested.

In other words, if the leaders of the BRN or any other separatist organisations cut a deal with the Thai state, there is no guarantee that the separatists actually doing the fighting will follow through with what the exiled leaders have agreed upon in peace talks.

Don Pathan is a security consultant based in southern Thailand. He is also a member of the Patani Forum

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Time-to-switch-tracks-in-deep-South-peace-process-30240601.html

 

[thenation]2014-08-09[/thenation]

[noitom]

There has to be an agreement on the "vision" of the region. Then a strategy to achieve it agreed. Then a roll out plan and milestones agreed.

[ChrisY1]

IMO the dedication required to return this region to peace, just doesn't seem to be there.....eventually, if this keeps going and there are more deaths, one would hope that the international media may once again make some noises and attract attention.

EG: My family in Australia, have very little knowledge of the attrocities that happen there almost daily....I would imagine it's similar elsewhere.

 

If the NCPO can make a small improvement down there, then it will be a start..........time will tell,  no doubt countless more deaths and injuries in the meantime

[rickirs]

NCPO's strategy of isolating Kuala Lumpur from any peace process other than to allow it to have a face-saving imaginary role is defintiely a game changer. But it may be a change that the NCPO will not appreciate if Kuala Lumpur decides in retaliation to more actively support the insurgency. Such an about face may cause the insurgent leaders to be more demanding in any negotiations with NCPO to the extent that NCPO will be unable to make concessions for a peace agreement.  

[ABCer]

Judging by the exchange rates the cost of life in Israel is very high.

 

Judging by the so far response in Thai South the cost of life in Thailand is somewhat lower.

 

Maybe this is simply a reflection on the size of two Nations?  76 vs 6 is an impressive ratio.

 

Or maybe the genetic memory kicks in?  I am not sure.

 

In any case Thai have an obligation to protect the lives of their citizens.

 

Time to borrow a "sledgehammer"?  I am not sure and it is not my fight ... yet.

[Pinot]

NCPO's strategy of isolating Kuala Lumpur from any peace process other than to allow it to have a face-saving imaginary role is defintiely a game changer. But it may be a change that the NCPO will not appreciate if Kuala Lumpur decides in retaliation to more actively support the insurgency. Such an about face may cause the insurgent leaders to be more demanding in any negotiations with NCPO to the extent that NCPO will be unable to make concessions for a peace agreement.  

 

 

I think Malaysia would like to wash their hands of the mess in southern Thailand. More active support of the crazies is highly unlikely. I think Malaysia is in this for purely humanitarian reasons and to keep them over on that side of the border.

 

The extremists don't know what they want. They just want it. I don't know how you deal with these shits killing teachers, blowing up children and other hideous crimes. Well, I do but killing every last one of them may not be acceptable to some. I live in a Muslim community. It doesn't have to be this way.   

[spidermike007]

There has to be an agreement on the "vision" of the region. Then a strategy to achieve it agreed. Then a roll out plan and milestones agreed.

 

 

 

Vision. Now that is an abstract and foreign concept. One would love to see some vision applied to the south. It feels like a diplomatic sledgehammer has been the extent of the vision applied in the past few decades. Not much in the way of creativity, or give and take. Just a bulldog approach, to solving a complex problem. It might help if the government started to give some support to the provinces of Yala, Pattani, Satun, Narathiwat, and Songkla. They have been treating those provinces as pariahs ever since they seized that land from the Sultanate of Malay. Here is a little background on that region, which has a somewhat tortured history of late.

 

The Anglo-Siamese Treaty of 1909 or Bangkok Treaty of 1909 was a treaty between the United Kingdom and the Kingdom of Siam signed on March 10, 1909, in Bangkok.^[1] Ratifications were exchanged in London on July 9, 1909.^[2]

The agreement effectively divided the northern Malay states into two parts. The area around modern Pattani (Malay: ڤتنا (Patani)), Narathiwat (Malay: منارة (Menara)), southernmost Songkhla (Malay: سيڠڬورا (Singgora)), Satun (Malay: مقيم ستل (Mukim Setul)) and Yala (Malay: جال (Jala)) remained under Thai control, while Thailand relinquished its claims to sovereignty over Kedah (Thai: ไทรบุรี (Saiburi)), Kelantan (Thai: กลันตัน (Kalantan)), Perlis (Thai: ปะลิส (Palit)) and Terengganu (Thai: ตรังกานู (Trangkanu)) which integrated the British sphere of influence as protectorates. These four states, along with Johor, later became known as the Unfederated Malay States.

Satun and Perlis had been part of the Malay Sultanate of Kedah, but only Satun (with a mixed Thai and Malay population) remained with Thailand.^{[citation needed]} Patani, Narathiwat, southernmost Songkhla and Yala were historically parts of the MalaySultanate of Patani, which had long been tributary to the Thais.

The British reason for sanctioning the continued Thai rule of the remaining northern half of the Malay provinces was the perceived value of Thailand as a friendly buffer against the French in Indochina.^{[citation needed]}

Both signatories of the 1909 treaty had previously agreed to the Burney Treaty in 1826. The Burney Treaty stated that Kedah, Kelantan, Perlis and Terengganu were Thai provinces while Penang and Province Wellesley belonged to the British while Thailand would not interfere with British trade in Kelantan and Terengganu.^{[citation needed]}

This agreement has had a long lasting effect on both Thailand and the Federation of Malaysia. The border between them was mainly drawn by this treaty.

The incremental tide of discontent generated by the Anglo-Siamese Treaty of 1909 may have, in part laid the foundations for the South Thailand insurgency in Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat from 2004 to the present.

[soalbundy]

There has to be an agreement on the "vision" of the region. Then a strategy to achieve it agreed. Then a roll out plan and milestones agreed.

Like the Palestine peace process.

[metisdead]

A post calling for genocide has been removed as well as a reply.

[LeeTheCelt]

IMO the dedication required to return this region to peace, just doesn't seem to be there.....eventually, if this keeps going and there are more deaths, one would hope that the international media may once again make some noises and attract attention.

EG: My family in Australia, have very little knowledge of the atrocities that happen there almost daily....I would imagine it's similar elsewhere.

 

 

 

I watch BBC news here in London, My mother channel 5 & My sister Sky, so between us we have it more or less covered here in the UK.....................we have heard next to nothing about what is happening down south, if it wasn't for Thaivisa.com, I would be totally unaware of the situation.

 

If this was going on in the middle east or Africa it would be all over the news, this has to be brought to the attention of the world, it's outrageous what the Muslims are doing there, setting fire to monks WTF. Once again it's Muslims wanting their own way, their own laws in a none Muslim country.

 

I don't know the answer, could it be full scale war ? could they have an independent state ? could they come under Malaysian rule (not an option I know) 

 

A massive problem, that isn't going away any time soon, I can only see it getting worse & that's very sad indeed :-(

[surangw]

invite the leaders to a meeting where they will be paid off in cash, and zap them.

[expat888]

The title says "switch tracks"?

 

I don't think there is a second track.

[BSJ]

The army needs to build a fence like Israel and more strictly patrol the waters along the coast.  In the provinces concerned anyone not police or army carrying a gun is to be shot on sight and those who wish to resettle on the other side of the fence can leave ASAP.

 

The army would need to introduce ghost patrols along the fence as well as regular patrols.  Also snipers at potential hot spots.  

 

With a border anyone can walk across unhindered there is no chance of stopping the criminal scum from entering Thailand and going their dirty deeds..

[canuckamuck]

I think the southern situation is unique in the world. If even one of the daily atrocities occurred in western cities it would be in the news for weeks. Here it usually hidden further back in the paper. The nation of Thailand does not have the capacity to be outraged over this locally contained issue. Not my business as they say. The death toll far exceeds any other political conflict in the last 10 years here, but there is no sustained anger about the situation coming from anyone north of the situation. This is especially discouraging because a great number of the casualties have been innocent civilians, not combatants or politically involved - people that should be protected at all cost.

In my opinion the non Islamic residents of the south of Thailand have really been shafted by their countrymen.

They are proud to have never been colonized (officially) yet they have endured an insurgency for 10 years with no resolution in sight.

[Thaiready]

Wakeup and smell the Roses.......you can delete my post, but the Truth still stands....THEY DO NOT SEEK PEACE.