NCPO's road to real reform could get bumpy: Thai opinion

[webfact]

THAI TALK
NCPO's road to real reform could get bumpy
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) says it will give the 250-member National Reform Council (NRC) a "free hand" in debating the 11 areas of proposed reform. But the final decision on who will be named to the council still rests with the NCPO.

That perhaps explains why there remains a degree of scepticism over whether "genuine reform" can really take place, if the members are handpicked by the powers-that-be despite the appointment of 77 "selection committee members" to the 11 groups. They are supposed to "screen" the nominations and applicants from around the country in order to compile a shortlist - to be finalised by the NCPO chief, General Prayuth Chan-ocha.

The two major political parties - Pheu Thai and the Democrats - have publicly declared they are not fielding any candidates. Publicly, the official reason for the decision to stay out is to avoid any possibility of conflict of interest. Privately though, some of their politicians are expressing doubt as to whether the reform process will lead to anything conclusive.

A few small parties, though, have jumped in, and were immediately seen as a tactic to play all the cards they could lay their hands on. Some of them are even seen as being close to the previous government - and are now trying to jump on the bandwagon, possibly trying to serve as a bridge between the present and previous administrations.

There is no guarantee, of course, that the reform process will be smooth or effective. In fact, if the 250 members finally named to the NRC aren't seen to be "representative" of the general public, the NCPO will inevitably be put on the defensive. A crisis of confidence will set in and the "second phase" of the NCPO's roadmap will be in trouble, thereby undermining the "third phase" that promises a new election to usher in a popularly elected government.

Even if the formation of the NRC is perceived to be generally acceptable to the general public, there is still the question of whether "accidents" could occur along the way that will derail or delay the transition from the second to the third phase.

Article 38 of the provisional Constitution stipulates that if the NRC fails to complete its task of drawing up the new charter within the specified period of time or it rejects the draft, then the NCR and the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC) will be automatically dissolved - and new NRC and CDC committees will have to be selected - and the old members on both panels would be prohibited from being nominated to the new committees.

In other words, we will be back to Square One if, for one reason or another, the NCR fails to perform.

If that eventuality should come to pass, the NCPO's public timeline leading up to general election in October next year will most probably be put off. That could shatter the military leaders' credibility, and their whole claim to be putting the country back on the democratic track could be derailed.

What are the chances of this scenario happening? Cynics are already suggesting that the clause was incorporated into the provisional charter to allow the military junta to back-pedal in case things don't proceed the way the top brass want them to.

Things will get more complicated once the NRC starts its deliberations on how the reform process should proceed and how the tasks can be finalised amid the wide range of divergent views on major national issues including anti-corruption measures, populist policies, the rich-poor gap, social and media rules, etc.

It's also not clear how the "reform agenda", even if it is finally adopted, could be incorporated into the draft constitution draft that will be taken up by the charter drafting committee, which may or may not agree with all the proposals submitted by the NRC.

There is also the question of how the NCPO's representatives assigned to the National Legislative Assembly, the National Reform Council and the Constitution Drafting Committee will conduct themselves if caught in controversial debates, including on proposals that could compel the armed forces to become more transparent.

The official timeline may appear to be clear and reasonably short but the road ahead could be long and bumpy. The "what if" scenario cannot be ruled out.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/NCPOs-road-to-real-reform-could-get-bumpy-30241365.html


-- The Nation 2014-08-21

[trogers]

Like setting up a PTA to formulate a code of conduct for the school. In this case, the students would be politicians seeking power.

[chainarong]

Both the PTP and Democrats are being diplomatic as they and others know full well the reason for the coup, to say the outcomes for reform are going to benefit the Thai people is misleading , possibly anything decisive will be a miracle, if anything the purpose for the coup was to introduce real reform , there will be reform, but except for a few scraps, it will not be what the Thai people expect. .

[tingtongteesood]

Both the PTP and Democrats are being diplomatic as they and others know full well the reason for the coup, to say the outcomes for reform are going to benefit the Thai people is misleading , possibly anything decisive will be a miracle, if anything the purpose for the coup was to introduce real reform , there will be reform, but except for a few scraps, it will not be what the Thai people expect. .

Are you blind or what ? There has been huge reform already and the Thai people have benefitted greatly from it for the most part. There are some who have lost out, mostly the ones that have been doing things illegally so boo hoo to them.

Another Takky red fan boy who just can't face the truth the military did the best thing for the country by defeating his corrupt hero.

[ebean001]

fIX THE TOURISM PROBLEM.

[Eric Loh]

Everything is on the table except military reform and that's an order.

[Chris Lawrence]

Its quite simple refer everything to the General before voting on any or all 11 areas of proposed reform. That way they keep the job and get to hold the official rubber stamp.

So who will be the new General, once the current General takes up the new post of Prime Minister?

Don't usually agree with the Nation; representation of the masses will not be respected in this new process?

[Bob12345]

Both the PTP and Democrats are being diplomatic as they and others know full well the reason for the coup, to say the outcomes for reform are going to benefit the Thai people is misleading , possibly anything decisive will be a miracle, if anything the purpose for the coup was to introduce real reform , there will be reform, but except for a few scraps, it will not be what the Thai people expect. .

Are you blind or what ? There has been huge reform already and the Thai people have benefitted greatly from it for the most part. There are some who have lost out, mostly the ones that have been doing things illegally so boo hoo to them.

Another Takky red fan boy who just can't face the truth the military did the best thing for the country by defeating his corrupt hero.

Guess I am blind also in that case, as I have not seen any huge reforms either yet.

I have seen the military fix some of the mistakes the previous government made but i hope you don't count that as huge reforms.

(and it is sometimes questionable who was to blame for those mistakes; its pretty hard to pay farmers if nobody is willing to lend you money as they are feeling your government will be overthrown soon and helping them now leaves you out of favor with the next government).

And please refrain from all the "red shirt" and "yellow shirt" comments. Not everybody who has the same point of view is automatically a "red shirt" and therefore a "Taksin supporter". Try to deal in facts, not in labels.

And just for fun; grab a newspaper of a year ago and you will see the exact same headlines as you see now: Thailand will crack down on (insert something that is illegal or damaging" and Thailand vows to become the hub of "insert something positive or profit making". Its all the same: lots of talk and little change.

Edited August 21, 2014 by Bob12345

[Bob12345]

Everything is on the table except military reform and that's an order.

Exactly.

If you want real reform in Thailand you should start with cleaning up your own house, inviting everyone to scrutinize what you have done, and then making what you did the bar for others.

Instead they start cleaning up somewhere else first, they threaten/block/imprison/sue everyone who scrutinizes them, and then demand others to do better then they are doing.

[billd766]

Its quite simple refer everything to the General before voting on any or all 11 areas of proposed reform. That way they keep the job and get to hold the official rubber stamp.

So who will be the new General, once the current General takes up the new post of Prime Minister?

Don't usually agree with the Nation; representation of the masses will not be respected in this new process?

They were not represented before under the politicians so any change has to be for the better.

[ginjag]

Both the PTP and Democrats are being diplomatic as they and others know full well the reason for the coup, to say the outcomes for reform are going to benefit the Thai people is misleading , possibly anything decisive will be a miracle, if anything the purpose for the coup was to introduce real reform , there will be reform, but except for a few scraps, it will not be what the Thai people expect. .

Member of the newly formed anti army doom and gloom squad.

[ginjag]

Both the PTP and Democrats are being diplomatic as they and others know full well the reason for the coup, to say the outcomes for reform are going to benefit the Thai people is misleading , possibly anything decisive will be a miracle, if anything the purpose for the coup was to introduce real reform , there will be reform, but except for a few scraps, it will not be what the Thai people expect. .

Are you blind or what ? There has been huge reform already and the Thai people have benefitted greatly from it for the most part. There are some who have lost out, mostly the ones that have been doing things illegally so boo hoo to them.

Another Takky red fan boy who just can't face the truth the military did the best thing for the country by defeating his corrupt hero.

Guess I am blind also in that case, as I have not seen any huge reforms either yet.

I have seen the military fix some of the mistakes the previous government made but i hope you don't count that as huge reforms.

(and it is sometimes questionable who was to blame for those mistakes; its pretty hard to pay farmers if nobody is willing to lend you money as they are feeling your government will be overthrown soon and helping them now leaves you out of favor with the next government).

And please refrain from all the "red shirt" and "yellow shirt" comments. Not everybody who has the same point of view is automatically a "red shirt" and therefore a "Taksin supporter". Try to deal in facts, not in labels.

And just for fun; grab a newspaper of a year ago and you will see the exact same headlines as you see now: Thailand will crack down on (insert something that is illegal or damaging" and Thailand vows to become the hub of "insert something positive or profit making". Its all the same: lots of talk and little change.

Difference -Yingluck said it for 3 years (crackdowns) all we got was crack-ups. Prayuth 10 weeks, you expect what ??

[djjamie]

Both the PTP and Democrats are being diplomatic as they and others know full well the reason for the coup, to say the outcomes for reform are going to benefit the Thai people is misleading , possibly anything decisive will be a miracle, if anything the purpose for the coup was to introduce real reform , there will be reform, but except for a few scraps, it will not be what the Thai people expect. .

Are you blind or what ? There has been huge reform already and the Thai people have benefitted greatly from it for the most part. There are some who have lost out, mostly the ones that have been doing things illegally so boo hoo to them.

Another Takky red fan boy who just can't face the truth the military did the best thing for the country by defeating his corrupt hero.

Guess I am blind also in that case, as I have not seen any huge reforms either yet.

I have seen the military fix some of the mistakes the previous government made but i hope you don't count that as huge reforms.

(and it is sometimes questionable who was to blame for those mistakes; its pretty hard to pay farmers if nobody is willing to lend you money as they are feeling your government will be overthrown soon and helping them now leaves you out of favor with the next government).

And please refrain from all the "red shirt" and "yellow shirt" comments. Not everybody who has the same point of view is automatically a "red shirt" and therefore a "Taksin supporter". Try to deal in facts, not in labels.

And just for fun; grab a newspaper of a year ago and you will see the exact same headlines as you see now: Thailand will crack down on (insert something that is illegal or damaging" and Thailand vows to become the hub of "insert something positive or profit making". Its all the same: lots of talk and little change.

"and it is sometimes questionable who was to blame for those mistakes; its pretty hard to pay farmers if nobody is willing to lend you money"

This old chestnut again that highlights why the reform process will be bumpy. It is hard to refrain from the labels when you fit so very neatly into the red label.

So you think the PTP didn't pay the farmers because no one would lend them money? Seriously? Non payment without a slither of a doubt is the PTP's fault and to think otherwise is a credit to the PTP ministry of propaganda and the hard work of the UDD reducation schools that teach hate and division under the handle of democracy.

13th of September 2013 - The cabinet approved a total budget of 270 billion baht for the government’s rice pledging scheme, Deputy Commerce Minister Yanyong Puangraj. They said they had the money. They lied.

16th of September, 2013 - THE FINANCE MINISTRY’s sub-committee assessing the cost of the rice pledging scheme fears the scheme will break budget. The PTP were warned.

September 25, 2013 Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has said the government was not considering further loans because it would have enough money from selling rice from its stocks to fund the scheme." yingluck lied.

http://www.newsdaily...ce-scheme-going

8th of October - The World Bank said that the rice pledging scheme had proven to be the most costly and would ring up a bill of 115 billion to 150 billion baht per harvest. The reply - Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Niwatthamrong Bunsongphaisan categorically dismissed the World Bank’s estimate that the Thai government will incur up to 400 billion baht in losses from the rice pledging scheme for two harvests. He went on to say the Finance Ministry should help secure more funding to meet the 270 billion baht target already approved by the cabinet to be used for the 2013-14 harvests. Turns out the World Bank were right. Hang on. yingluck said on the 25th of Sept they didn't need more loans? The PTP and yingluck lied.

November the 4th - Protests start

12th November 2013 - IMF called on Thailand to ditch rice support scheme. The PTP said no. The PTP were warned.

Nov 23^rd - The Commerce Ministry stood firm that it had enough budget to subsidize the rice pledging plan which needs a circulating fund of Bt500 billion" Oh, so they don't need another loan now? They need to get their story right. They lied.

http://www.mcot.net/...50ba0576b00032b

http://www.thaivisa....r-rice-subsidy/

9th of Decmeber 2013 - House dissolved.

So in summary not once did they say we don'tt have the money because the banks won't lend it to us. NOT ONCE so I don;'t know where you get your quant story from. The PTP were warned more than once the scheme would run out of funding and they ignored that advice and they lied over 6 times to the public that they had the money to fund the scheme to March, 2014.

But your not a red shirt or support thaksin right!!! Next you will say there is no corruption in the rice scheme.

Edited August 21, 2014 by djjamie

[asdecas]

Everything is on the table except military reform and that's an order.

Quite so, and for those still cheering the 'progress' since martial law was instated, there is a sobering piece about the Thai military on the Asia Sentinel website at the moment - you may need a VPN to access it if you are in Thailand.

[Bakseeda]

There is no way on this earth that a proper election will take place within one to two years... Thai peoples will be lucky to see another election for the people within three to five years.. There is going to be a rocky road ahead in Thai politics for sure, especially when Marshal Law is withdrawn. Fot us Farangs it is easy, just sit back and watch .. we can leave any time..

[BirdsandBooze]

There have to be some popular reforms otherwise the NCPO/NLA won't be able to silence their critics. Hopefully, the biggest target will be the institutionally corrupt law enforcement agencies. That will not only benefit ordinary Thais but also expats and tourists. I certainly don't expect anything to be done that alters the social status quo; that is set in stone and jealously guarded by the self entitled.

[Bob12345]

So you think the PTP didn't pay the farmers because no one would lend them money? Seriously? Non payment without a slither of a doubt is the PTP's fault and to think otherwise is a credit to the PTP ministry of propaganda and the hard work of the UDD reducation schools that teach hate and division under the handle of democracy.

(...)

So in summary not once did they say we don'tt have the money because the banks won't lend it to us. NOT ONCE so I don;'t know where you get your quant story from. The PTP were warned more than once the scheme would run out of funding and they ignored that advice and they lied over 6 times to the public that they had the money to fund the scheme to March, 2014.

(...)

But your not a red shirt or support thaksin right!!! Next you will say there is no corruption in the rice scheme.

So you think a government makes promises to its supporters and then, on purpose, breaks those promises right during the time that huge mobs of protesters try to oust them? Seriously? Seriously? You have to admit that it is pretty obviously political suicide to alienate your own supporters in the middle of the hardest times a government can go through. Also keep in mind that if they pay out the farmers it is not coming from their own pockets but from the country's pockets.

And you don't have to convince me that the previous government was telling lies and corruption took place. Heck, name me one political party in the world that is honest and i name you one political party that gets no votes.

I would not count myself as a red shirt thaksin supporter. Mostly because i think Taksin should be banned from politics and should serve his jail time. Besides i do not, and did not, agree with many of the policies that have been implemented by the previous government. In general i hope the "red-shirt" parties will get no more votes as better and more reliable other parties will include policies that benefit Thailand as a whole instead of just their own little group. Does that make your head spin? It must as I am anti-dictatorship and also anti-taksin and according to your world view that is not possible.

But just as an experiment, can you answer the following two questions below for me?

1. If an army general in your home country would stand up tomorrow claiming he is the chosen one and he will grab absolute power to improve your country, place himself above every law, and would not tolerate being scrutinized, would you cheer him up also? Looking forward to your excuses why you would not tolerate this in your own home country but cheer for it in Thailand.

2. If it was not an army general but a random police general, random politician, or random millionaire, who had done this coup and the exact same things that happened in the past months, would you still cheer as loudly? Looking forward to your excuses why you think an army general should be trusted blindly on his word while you would not trust any other random Thai person the same way.

[Eric Loh]

Both the PTP and Democrats are being diplomatic as they and others know full well the reason for the coup, to say the outcomes for reform are going to benefit the Thai people is misleading , possibly anything decisive will be a miracle, if anything the purpose for the coup was to introduce real reform , there will be reform, but except for a few scraps, it will not be what the Thai people expect. .

Are you blind or what ? There has been huge reform already and the Thai people have benefitted greatly from it for the most part. There are some who have lost out, mostly the ones that have been doing things illegally so boo hoo to them.

Another Takky red fan boy who just can't face the truth the military did the best thing for the country by defeating his corrupt hero.

Guess I am blind also in that case, as I have not seen any huge reforms either yet.

I have seen the military fix some of the mistakes the previous government made but i hope you don't count that as huge reforms.

(and it is sometimes questionable who was to blame for those mistakes; its pretty hard to pay farmers if nobody is willing to lend you money as they are feeling your government will be overthrown soon and helping them now leaves you out of favor with the next government).

And please refrain from all the "red shirt" and "yellow shirt" comments. Not everybody who has the same point of view is automatically a "red shirt" and therefore a "Taksin supporter". Try to deal in facts, not in labels.

And just for fun; grab a newspaper of a year ago and you will see the exact same headlines as you see now: Thailand will crack down on (insert something that is illegal or damaging" and Thailand vows to become the hub of "insert something positive or profit making". Its all the same: lots of talk and little change.

"and it is sometimes questionable who was to blame for those mistakes; its pretty hard to pay farmers if nobody is willing to lend you money"

This old chestnut again that highlights why the reform process will be bumpy. It is hard to refrain from the labels when you fit so very neatly into the red label.

So you think the PTP didn't pay the farmers because no one would lend them money? Seriously? Non payment without a slither of a doubt is the PTP's fault and to think otherwise is a credit to the PTP ministry of propaganda and the hard work of the UDD reducation schools that teach hate and division under the handle of democracy.

13th of September 2013 - The cabinet approved a total budget of 270 billion baht for the governments rice pledging scheme, Deputy Commerce Minister Yanyong Puangraj. They said they had the money. They lied.

16th of September, 2013 - THE FINANCE MINISTRYs sub-committee assessing the cost of the rice pledging scheme fears the scheme will break budget. The PTP were warned.

September 25, 2013 Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has said the government was not considering further loans because it would have enough money from selling rice from its stocks to fund the scheme." yingluck lied.

http://www.newsdaily...ce-scheme-going

8th of October - The World Bank said that the rice pledging scheme had proven to be the most costly and would ring up a bill of 115 billion to 150 billion baht per harvest. The reply - Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Niwatthamrong Bunsongphaisan categorically dismissed the World Banks estimate that the Thai government will incur up to 400 billion baht in losses from the rice pledging scheme for two harvests. He went on to say the Finance Ministry should help secure more funding to meet the 270 billion baht target already approved by the cabinet to be used for the 2013-14 harvests. Turns out the World Bank were right. Hang on. yingluck said on the 25th of Sept they didn't need more loans? The PTP and yingluck lied.

November the 4th - Protests start

12th November 2013 - IMF called on Thailand to ditch rice support scheme. The PTP said no. The PTP were warned.

Nov 23^rd - The Commerce Ministry stood firm that it had enough budget to subsidize the rice pledging plan which needs a circulating fund of Bt500 billion" Oh, so they don't need another loan now? They need to get their story right. They lied.

http://www.mcot.net/...50ba0576b00032b

http://www.thaivisa....r-rice-subsidy/

9th of Decmeber 2013 - House dissolved.

So in summary not once did they say we don'tt have the money because the banks won't lend it to us. NOT ONCE so I don;'t know where you get your quant story from. The PTP were warned more than once the scheme would run out of funding and they ignored that advice and they lied over 6 times to the public that they had the money to fund the scheme to March, 2014.

But your not a red shirt or support thaksin right!!! Next you will say there is no corruption in the rice scheme.

Djjamie, must be tedious work getting all the information. Just one question. If there are no Suthep and the PDRC, do you think the government will able to get the banks to lend the 50B Baht to pay the farmers?

[Bob12345]

Difference -Yingluck said it for 3 years (crackdowns) all we got was crack-ups. Prayuth 10 weeks, you expect what ??

So far I see no reason why it will be different this time, and i guess neither do you. I envy your hopes, and i would not recommend you to read about Thailand's history as that will destroy your upbeat spirits.