ray23 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 That is a difficult question to answer, on one hand you have all the infrastructure projects getting under way. But, NPL's and house hold debt is up, running in the 1550 range now. Saw an article on here that said that Thailand is close to recession. But, the SET performance doesn't reflect that, still a lot of foreign money coming in. Any Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noahvail Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Magic 8-ball says "Try Again Later." But seriously, with all the bad economic news from the US, wouldn't you think that it would have tanked by now. Somehow, the fundamentals just don't seem to apply like they used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Time Traveller Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The stock market is forward looking. Prices don't neccesarily reflect what the economy is doing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asiantravel Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Is there a consensus amongst those that play the SET that if the US stock market took a sudden dive that the Thai market would do the same (as it did in 2008)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gonsalviz Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The stock market is forward looking. Prices don't neccesarily reflect what the economy is doing. i.e. Look at the US economy vs stock market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iancnx Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Yeah yeah yeah. All stock markets are controlled globally by the worlds most wealthy. They will decide what needs correcting, when, and by how much. Generally their interventions are devastating, but they have not quite resulted in war..... Yet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazzasore Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 All the worlds Stock Markets are in the Biggest reset in History When the US $ Fails and it may be closer than people think You have to remember the Market Runs on Emotions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goatfarmer Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 The SET is heading for a retest of its previous high of 1,650. It will probably go on to make a new high. But too soon to tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goatfarmer Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Is there a consensus amongst those that play the SET that if the US stock market took a sudden dive that the Thai market would do the same (as it did in 2008)? Can't speak for a consensus. But the answer is 'yes'. Not all markets go up the US. But all come down with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemellow Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Stock market bulls will always shout you down when you start asking questions like that. I am wanting to buy Thai Stocks but I am waiting as every regular Thai person I talk with is making a lot less money in recent months. The elite are doing fine but if the economy starts to slow from the bottom up it may reach to the level of the national economy and then the SET. Governments can keep bubbles going for a long time so I am just waiting cash in hand for a massive pullback when I can load up with Thai stocks. As a side note Bill Gates a few months ago before the coup took a large position in Thai stocks but I am not sure of his position at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Card Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Is there a consensus amongst those that play the SET that if the US stock market took a sudden dive that the Thai market would do the same (as it did in 2008)? The opposite - if the US and European markets slide then the money goes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Aleman Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Inasmuch as most Thai stocks are 20 to 50 % over priced due to the large block purchases of speculators running the prices up artificially, I would be very cautious of any buying now ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Is there a consensus amongst those that play the SET that if the US stock market took a sudden dive that the Thai market would do the same (as it did in 2008)? The opposite - if the US and European markets slide then the money goes east. history says if there is a real slide the money goes nowhere and the markets in the "east" slide as they slide in the "west". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cake Monster Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 The International markets are waiting for the pricing to moderate on stock, as they are viewed as well overpriced. It is probably domestic speculators that are causing the 20 to 50 % inflated stock options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugh2121 Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 I'm very cautious on the SET. The reason? Look around at all the new condo's going up. Many, many remain unsold! Who financed the building of all these empty homes....that would be the Thai banks, to the tune of billions. I think the banks have more problems with repayment of these loans than they tell us about. It only needs one of the big ones to go belly up (as they nearly did in the west) and the SET and THB will come tumbling down. That is my personal uninformed opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacChang Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Technical investors.... One thing I learned through all these years of investment. NEVER EVER predict the market. The market moves as it desires, we look at the movement, we assess people's behaviors, we put our words into action. Simple analogy I have used for years and has kept money flowing endlessly in. Sure, we are overdue for a major correction, every 5 years once right? Every 10 years, a major one right? One of the poster said they will wait, how long will you wait? And when the time comes, how do you know it's the right one? What if you waited at that "correct time"? There are opportunity costs that you can't afford. I just bought 2 weeks ago, now it's up 5.62%. Once the falling knife has settled, I jump in. Fear should last only a while, optimisn a while longer. If there were 10 days in a year, 2 days would be a drop of a knife, and the remaining 8 days a slow turtle crawling to the top. Every investor when face with fear, their immediate action is to sell and others will follow suit. That's why drops in prices are very sudden and in huge numbers. However once that drama is gone, half of the investors blame the market and quit. The remaining are cautious and unwilling to get back in. They move up very very slowly and take a while. Once you stop being those white mice in the stock market, and actually observe it, stock market is a very easy game. Drop then stable? Buy If it goes up up up, and too much away from the fundamentals? Sell Only two laws, never any emotion. Portfolio gets bigger and bigger each year. Is the SET due for a correction? If yes, buy more if fundamentals are still strong. If no, I just bought shares and my portfolio just went up. Win win situation. Only losers try to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert24 Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Valuations are quite high. So worthwile to take some profit, take some chips of the table. But I still keep some stocks in quality companies that I think will do very well over the next 3-5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estrada Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Is there a consensus amongst those that play the SET that if the US stock market took a sudden dive that the Thai market would do the same (as it did in 2008)? No! There has been an average 11 year cycle of boom and bust since the wall street crash. 1997 was the Tom Yam Khung crash then +11years was the 2008 crash. The next crash is due in 2019. 2014 is midway so you can expect a gradually steepening rise towards 2019 when the stock markets will crash again. Anything inbetween will merely be a slight correction, but the trend wil be up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estrada Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Inasmuch as most Thai stocks are 20 to 50 % over priced due to the large block purchases of speculators running the prices up artificially, I would be very cautious of any buying now ! Rubbish! Please base your advice on facts not personal opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asiantravel Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 (edited) Is there a consensus amongst those that play the SET that if the US stock market took a sudden dive that the Thai market would do the same (as it did in 2008)? No! There has been an average 11 year cycle of boom and bust since the wall street crash. 1997 was the Tom Yam Khung crash then +11years was the 2008 crash. The next crash is due in 2019. 2014 is midway so you can expect a gradually steepening rise towards 2019 when the stock markets will crash again. Anything inbetween will merely be a slight correction, but the trend wil be up. " The next crash is due in 2019." and do you know which month ..... and if possible can you say which day ? Edited August 24, 2014 by Asiantravel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dotpoom Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Now I understand.....thought we were still talking about TV channels !!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SinCityGr8One Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 What goes up will come down. Everything runs in cycles. Stock Markets are just Ponzi Schemes. The LARGE institutional players (Think Gordon Gecko: Greed is Good!) will never lose their money due to their high tech electronic trading which makes trading decisions in milli-seconds. "Joe Lunch Pail" is just fish food for the shark tank. Good Luck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowisee Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 (edited) The stock market is forward looking. Prices don't neccesarily reflect what the economy is doing. The market is about companies. Some companies do well in a bad economy. There are times when the economy goes south and takes the market with it. There are times when the market goes south and takes good companies with it. I don't believe a down economy means a down stock market. Robert24 has the right idea, take some profits now. For me a significant pullback in a good company is a buying opportunity. I am an optimistically bull investor with a 3-5 year horizon. Edited August 24, 2014 by Nowisee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kblaze Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 The market isn't cheap now. But there are always stocks that have meat left on the bone. TMB is one of em (M&A talk will keep boosting valuation). Lot of people like THAI for the changes being made. Lot of people like AOT for play on tourism rebound....you gotta be more specific with what sectors you are interested in...and then I can give you more specific help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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