Anyone lived through Tom yam kung 1997 crash?

[Old Man River]

I remember in 1996 living out in ramkamhaeng and it taking 2 to 3 hours to drive from Silom to there.

At the start of 98, the roads, while not clear, were much more free flowing and the trip could be done much faster (this was the days before much of the overhead tollways had been built).

Pre 97 was almost like you fired a shotgun randomly into the sky and 20 geese would fall to the ground.

Guesthouse tells the story of the 6 month wait for a car. I had family members who were putting deposits down on harder to get cars, and then closer to the time of delivery, selling an option to people for the rights to purchase the car who didn't want to wait. It was that ridiculous.

Post crash, people were picking up 300sqm apartments on sukhumvit for 1 to 2 million baht.

I was working at all seasons place when the crash happened. There was only one of the three towers built, but I have to hand it to the developers, through all of it they kept construction going on the main tower. Most of the time it appeared that it was done with about 5 men, but they kept it ticking over.

All Seasons was the MThai group and China Resources (Chinese gov't). They had strong backers.

I had forgotten, but we did pick up a nice car that had been repossessed. They stored many in the parking lot of what is now Paradise Park.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Several finance companies failed

That's a bit of an understatement, OMR. According to the 1999 IMF report I cited above, specifically, in its Appendix V on Thailand, it included the following:

The most significant change is with the finance

companies—56 were closed and a further 13

(together with five banks) were merged.

As a result, what had started out as about 90 private finance companies in Thailand before the crash ended up being 22 in its aftermath.

The same appendix on Thailand has this useful chart showing the before and after numbers for the various financial institutions, as well as the public cost of the bailout, which at that point, had totaled to an estimated $34 billion.

Edited November 9, 2014 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Old Man River]

Several finance companies failed

That's a bit of an understatement, OMR. According to the 1999 IMF report I cited above, specifically, in its Appendix V on Thailand, it included the following:

The most significant change is with the finance

companies—56 were closed and a further 13

(together with five banks) were merged.

As a result, what had started out as about 90 private finance companies in Thailand before the crash ended up being 22 in its aftermath.

The same appendix on Thailand has this useful chart showing the before and after numbers for the various financial institutions, as well as the public cost of the bailout, which at that point, had totaled to an estimated $34 billion.

PS1052.jpg

You say several when you can't remember the numbers. I should have gone with many.

[fletchsmile]

I was around in SE Asia for these times - very interesting times on many levels. I was mainly based out of Singapore, but travelled the region, with Indonesia being my particular favourite.

Work was interesting because of the crisis. A lot of the spoke countries like Indonesia started significantly cutting back on expats, because their costs literally went up 3x, 4x, 5x etc and income collapsed. The expats ended up being high fixed costs which weren't sustainable in that environment.

I can't deny that socially it was also good for me too, with the collapse of various Asian currencies making everything cheap. Went to quite a few countries at weekends. In particular I loved Indonesia, and had some great times there. Hotels started charging two rates, one in USD for foreigners and one in IDR for locals. I got the best of both worlds, staying in lovely hotels with a lovely friend getting the local rate for us in places like Bali and Jakarta. In those days Lonely Planet's description of nightlife in Jakarta was something like "the best kept secret in SE Asia". Wild times + throw in the money side and it was great for me

I opened a couple of bank accounts with BCA in Indonesia in IDR. One was paying 70%+ as a fixed deposit, and another 50%+ as a savings account. I'd asked friends in the industry to pick out the "safest" local banks, but the credit risk was still obviously there. Speculative credit risks, but turned out well

Eventually the cuts came to my company in Singapore, and my contract was cut short and I was asked to return to the UK. No thank you... so I resigned, took the risks and looked around... Luckily a mate put me up in Singapore while I looked around.

I was offered a role in Japan, which I turned down, as something else came up in..... Thailand

Cheers

Fletch

[mataleo]

I had a friend called 'Eve', bright, articulate, well educated, hard working, good looking and earning a good salary.

The crash came she lost her job and was like everyone else desperate for an income. Apart from all the things above, which many have, she had two other assets. She owned her home outright (didn't trust banks) and she spoke excellent English - she was extremely employable under normal circumstances, and free to some extent of the desperate need for money - she could get by on a pittance.

Which was just as well because she her months to find a job, months in which she had not once, but on several occasions interviews where the job offer was subject to acceptance of a second interview at a nearby hotel, or an agreement that a percentage of her prospective wage would be paid to the HR manager.

She had the choice not to take these offers, many did not.

I witnessed on dozens of occasions, Thai people turning to prostitution for money. Once while crossing the road on Sukhumvit I had a young man approach me offering his girlfriend (a 19 or 20 year old college student) for the rate for the evening.

I woman called at my house, pleasing and begging me to take her on as a maid.

A young man stopped me in the street to beg some money off me, I recognised him as a waiter in my favourite restaurant - laid off an now destitute.

At a filling station I noticed the staff discussing someone outside, a man 50 years old sitting on a kerb, he looked tired and hungry. I went out and spoke to him, his thick isaarn accent difficult for me to understand. He'd come looking for work. I went back in the store, bought him food and water, gave it him with Bht 500 and told him to go back home to his family. What did he do, I don't know.

These where the people paying the price that my wife had noted must be paid.

I. like many, never refused a beggar, bought meals for people, I saw too Thai people, themselves in a desperate position giving food or meals to people.

And its then they came flush with their money.

Thx for that

[rgs2001uk]

I remember having to buy outfits for a niece who was lucky enough to secure a job, 5 blouses 5 skirts and 2 pairs of shoes, she had to borrow an outfit from the mrs for the job interview, after securing the job, she realised she didnt have the money to buy outfits.

The BIL was told to take a 40% drop in pay and if he didnt, there were others willing to take a 50-60% drop in pay.

The tent villages out by Sam Rong, people living under flyovers and at the side of canals, the same people who had sold their farms upcountry to get rich working in construction in Bkk, when the shyt hit the fan, they had nowhere to go back to.

The yard sales held in Thong Lor, the farang carpet baggars that advertised in the Bangok Post looking for cheap aircraft, boats and imported cars.

Designer watches that couldnt be given away.

Buying a condo for about 1/4 or 1/5 of the price it would have been two years earlier.

A famous Thai song at the time, "ai samong ai kwai", directed at a certain politician.

A conversation with a taxi driver, he told me it was the best thing that ever happened to him, he was now living with his mother in Min Buri and driving a taxi, his gold digger wife had deserted him.

Prakhanong turning into a ghost town, at least 4 department stores closing, everyone laid off, all the assorted stalls outside that used to alter clothes or sell food all gone.

Being embarrassed while sat in a restaurant, a bottle of Heineken and a name card being delivered by a dek serv, and being told from the guy over there, such was the desperation.

As alluded to by another poster, girls working in bars who under normal circumstances would never have been in one.

A girl who was one year away from qualifying as a vet, the regulars had a whip round to keep her out the bar and pay her education costs.

Truly heartbreaking.

[mitsubishi]

It was easier to live in Thailand back then generally. The exchange rate wasn't great but living there long term was. The immigration / labor laws weren't enforced as much unless you really took the micky, as a result you could set up shop and crack on at what you wanted to do.

People down in Phuket would send there passports off to get stamped every month, working off the books was a way of life for scuba-farang and the nightlife really rocked by night.

I don't know if this was true but one expat told of it being so affluent (in Bangkok) people would offer cars at rock bottom prices etc. Happy go-lucky and mai-pen-rai were so think in the air you could cut it like a knife.

All good things have their time though and while those on here point out as 1997 as being turning point I feel the real downward path was when Toxin got in power in 2001, that was when a lot of the clampdowns, big goverment policies started raining down and no government since has really reined it in since.

[Thai at Heart]

Yes.

Cheap holidays. People commuting suicide. Fortunes lost.

[farang000999]

Hard to believe that there were not alternatives to floating the currency and a 50% devaluation - but I am sure the big whigs profitted handsomely.

The people in this topic saying that only the greedy suffered sound like fools.

[farang000999]

I am sure the War Room Conversation was something like:

- "Tell us again about Option 1"

-"Well, the baht would be floated and would likely lose half it's value."

-"So if you traded baht for dollars you would double your money."

-"Yes, but the bad thing would be that businesses and real estate would see their prices fall 80%."

-"So If I sell 200,000,000 Thai baht for USD, then I can come back with it in a few month and have 400,000,000 Thai baht but I can also buy 4 times as much with that money in essence going from 200,000,000 baht to 1,600,000,000 in terms of purchasing power?"

-"Yes, exactly... but for the Thai people..."

-"Ok, would you mind giving us a second to talk this over. Please close the door and wait outside"...

[thailiketoo]

Hard to believe that there were not alternatives to floating the currency and a 50% devaluation - but I am sure the big whigs profitted handsomely.

The people in this topic saying that only the greedy suffered sound like fools.

In your brilliant analysis who are the Thai big wigs who profited? I think we can all (or most of us) agree George Soros (American) but no one I know has ever suggested any Thais made money on the deal. You say above that you are sure the big whigs profited handsomely OK, who?

I mean, if you are sure, surely you know who?

[farang000999]

The Deputy Prime Minister in 1997. Do you know his name?

LOL

This might be your best post yet thailiketoo.

[thailiketoo]

The Deputy Prime Minister in 1997. Do you know his name?

LOL

This might be your best post yet thailiketoo.

Link where he made any money from the 1997 crisis. Wealthy Thais rebounded after the crisis. But don't forget all their holdings dropped 50% in value as a result of the crisis.

Your post is nonsense. Any person who had wealth nominated in Thai baht lost money and that includes land, businesses, loans and any source of wealth in Thailand. The people who made money were not Thai.

The role of currency speculation in the 1997 Asian currency crisis has been sharply debated. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir has blamed large foreign investment funds, particularly hedge fund manager George Soros, for attacks in the marketplace on the Malaysian ringgit and other currencies in order to generate profits for themselves without regard to the livelihood of the Malaysian or other local people.

http://fas.org/man/crs/crs-asia2.htm

If you can prove me wrong go right ahead.

Edited November 11, 2014 by thailiketoo

[farang000999]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/07/02/national/national_30038909.php

[thailiketoo]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/07/02/national/national_30038909.php

Your link makes no reference to the Deputy Prime Minister or anyone Thai making any money.

Did you read it?

Your link says, "But the war with the hedge funds was not over yet. Rerngchai still hoped that he could keep speculator George Soros at bay from his attempt to obtain baht to cover his huge currency-swap positions. The Bank of Thailand still kept its two-tier currency system in place. "Since we shut down the onshore baht market to foreign speculators, Soros won't be able to obtain baht easily, although the baht has fallen to a tempting level of Bt28 on the onshore market after the flotation," one of the top Bank of Thailand officials said. In short, Soros, identified by the central bank as its number one enemy, would not be able to cash in, and the Bank of Thailand still hoped that Soros would default his positions and get some of his fingers burnt.

But Soros would have the last laugh. His hedge funds, including most other global funds speculating against the baht, would make a fortune on the baht's devaluation. They finally broke the back of the Bank of Thailand."

Supporting my position that people outside Thailand made money not yours. Thanks for the link and confirming what I had written above.

Edited November 11, 2014 by thailiketoo