International Crisis Group doubtful on Thai govt's 'road map to democracy'

[webfact]

International Crisis Group doubtful on junta's 'road map to democracy'
Pravit Rojanaphruk
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- A report from the International Crisis Group has cast doubt on the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO)'s pledge to restore democracy.

"The NCPO's suspension of civil liberties, media censorship and measures to remove the power of elected officials appear to foreclose any possibility of achieving its stated aim of establishing democracy," stated the Brussels-based organisation in the report, "A Coup Ordained? Thailand's Prospects for Stability", released on Wednesday. "Thailand's need is for a national dialogue to forge consensus on its future political direction; to settle on a shared notion of democracy; and to ensure that the majoritarian will can be respected in the form of a fully empowered executive and legislature, while protecting the interests of all."

The ICG also expressed uncertainty that power will be returned to the people by next year.

"In seizing power so soon after its last intervention in 2006, and following its involvement in violently quelling 2010 street protests, the military, under General Prayut Chan-o-cha, appears determined to learn from what it sees to have been its past errors," the group said.

"Thus, the ruling NCPO has moved forcefully to repress dissent and looks unlikely to relinquish power any time soon, with the talk of October 2015 elections now replaced with vague commitments. Further, the interim charter gives absolute power to the NCPO... It provides no role for elected representatives or means for popular political participation."

The report warned the electorate might not accept a diminished status if a new charter were designed that way. "Voters, increasingly accustomed to choosing their governments, are also ever more riven across geographical, to some extent class, and quasi-ideological lines," it said. "These fundamental challenges concern the relationship between Bangkok and its peripheries; persistent income inequality; and reality that the country's leaders - caught in a clash between those for whom the popular ballot is paramount and those for whom majoritarianism masks its own form of tyranny - find dogmatism easier to come by than statesmanship."

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/International-Crisis-Group-doubtful-on-juntas-road-30249186.html


-- The Nation 2014-12-05

[NongKhaiKid]

Foreigners, what do they know except of course those in the countries the PM has visited and who expressed support for what his government's doing ?

How do we know they expressed support ? Easy, the PM told us.

[The stuttering parrot]

Hear hear!

Stick that up you general where the sun don't shine!

Yes general the world does understand!

[englishoak]

"In seizing power so soon after its last intervention in 2006, and following its involvement in violently quelling 2010 street protests, the military, under General Prayut Chan-o-cha, appears determined to learn from what it sees to have been its past errors," the group said.

Sorry I dont believe that sentence is in context. lets print it properly shall we ?

In seizing power so soon after its last intervention in 2006, and following its involvement in violently quelling 2010 street protests, the military, under General Prayuth Chan-ocha, appears determined to learn from what it sees to have been its past errors. Thus, the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has moved forcefully to repress dissent and looks unlikely to relinquish power any time soon, with talk of October 2015 elections now replaced with vaguer commitments.

The report concludes

Like the 1991 and 2006 coups, that of 2014 did not provoke an immediate violent backlash. Many welcomed the army’s intervention to restore order, stamp out corruption and “move the country forward”. But both earlier coups eventually resulted in deadly confrontations between troops and protesters. The current build-up of pressures suggests that past may prove to be prologue.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/thailand/263-a-coup-ordained-thailand-s-prospects-for-stability.aspx

[casindonet]

Does dear general really care about this?

[terryp]

The ICG also expressed uncertainty that power will be returned to the people by next year.

this was always the master plan..but the thais are so sleepy/bored/dumb/sabai they had no idea what suthep was fronting

But both earlier coups eventually resulted in deadly confrontations between troops and protesters. The current build-up of pressures suggests that past may prove to be prologue.

100% guarenteed...and the time now where so many elites have gone quiet is the time they are planning the REAL end game

[chooka]

Go round up these damn foreigners and ship the off the attitude adjustment factory. Foreigners love me and my country and fully support us so why they say they don't, don't they understand what they say.

[Thailand]

But isn't this contrary to what the people are being led to believe?

Can't possibly be correct.

[whybother]

Did they copy this from posts on Thai Visa? There is certainly nothing new there.

[submaniac]

Same same, but different.

[jayboy]

Did they copy this from posts on Thai Visa? There is certainly nothing new there.

So you are saying that the civilised world is expressing views similar to those you disagree with on this forum? And your response is this is "nothing new"?

Do you ever consider that it might be time to revise your opinion (or parts of it) or or are you completely hooked to a party line like a Soviet era apparatchik?

I may have missed it but I do not recall one tiny note of dissent or concern at the present situation.

[whybother]

Did they copy this from posts on Thai Visa? There is certainly nothing new there.

So you are saying that the civilised world is expressing views similar to those you disagree with on this forum? And your response is this is "nothing new"?

Do you ever consider that it might be time to revise your opinion (or parts of it) or or are you completely hooked to a party line like a Soviet era apparatchik?

I may have missed it but I do not recall one tiny note of dissent or concern at the present situation.

You missed it. You miss a lot of things.

[pantareiyingluck]

China does not care what kind of Government is ruling; so that is a good sparring partner these days. And we have Putin bit isolated, so the PM can turn 'his' plane towards Moscow. And that is about it...... Statemanship. LOL

[jayboy]

Did they copy this from posts on Thai Visa? There is certainly nothing new there.

So you are saying that the civilised world is expressing views similar to those you disagree with on this forum? And your response is this is "nothing new"?

Do you ever consider that it might be time to revise your opinion (or parts of it) or or are you completely hooked to a party line like a Soviet era apparatchik?

I may have missed it but I do not recall one tiny note of dissent or concern at the present situation.

You missed it. You miss a lot of things.

I'll keep an eye open but so far all the evidence is you have no willingness to even mildly criticise the status quo let alone stand up for democracy.

Unlike the repulsive quisling cheerleaders, I do at least give you some credit for intelligence and moral integrity.Otherwise I wouldn't bother commenting - more in sorrow than anger anyway.

[whybother]

Did they copy this from posts on Thai Visa? There is certainly nothing new there.

So you are saying that the civilised world is expressing views similar to those you disagree with on this forum? And your response is this is "nothing new"?

Do you ever consider that it might be time to revise your opinion (or parts of it) or or are you completely hooked to a party line like a Soviet era apparatchik?

I may have missed it but I do not recall one tiny note of dissent or concern at the present situation.

You missed it. You miss a lot of things.

I'll keep an eye open but so far all the evidence is you have no willingness to even mildly criticise the status quo let alone stand up for democracy.

Unlike the repulsive quisling cheerleaders, I do at least give you some credit for intelligence and moral integrity.Otherwise I wouldn't bother commenting - more in sorrow than anger anyway.

Do you want me to run across the road to the cinema, stand in front of a Hunger Games poster and do a three finger salute to show some dissent?

[PREM-R]

No sign of Ginjag and D-J-J-aimie..... Where are you?

[jayboy]

Did they copy this from posts on Thai Visa? There is certainly nothing new there.

So you are saying that the civilised world is expressing views similar to those you disagree with on this forum? And your response is this is "nothing new"?

Do you ever consider that it might be time to revise your opinion (or parts of it) or or are you completely hooked to a party line like a Soviet era apparatchik?

I may have missed it but I do not recall one tiny note of dissent or concern at the present situation.

You missed it. You miss a lot of things.

I'll keep an eye open but so far all the evidence is you have no willingness to even mildly criticise the status quo let alone stand up for democracy.

Unlike the repulsive quisling cheerleaders, I do at least give you some credit for intelligence and moral integrity.Otherwise I wouldn't bother commenting - more in sorrow than anger anyway.

Do you want me to run across the road to the cinema, stand in front of a Hunger Games poster and do a three finger salute to show some dissent?

No, but if I may say so it's ill advised to allow a strong distaste for Thaksin ( entirely understandable) overwhelm one's thinking until one is slowly but inexorably aligned with forces that are far worse.Let's call it the frying pan and fire dilemma.

[rickirs]

Herein lies Gen. Prayuth's greatness as a strategic thinker.

If military power over the Thai people can be institutionalized (ie., as a People's Council or Politboro) as a RULE OF LAW, there would never be a need for the military to again overthrow the government and dirty itself with civilian politics. This approach is the lesson learned by the military - do not let civilians control the government.

One can only hope the Thai people also learned a lesson and find a way for history not to repeat itself. Military reform is not really about corruption except as an unwelcomed diversion of resources. It is about reforming a facilating power base into a permanent one that can be sustained indefinitely with little or no resources.

[Time Traveller]

ICG are a joke. I remember reading one of their monthly reports several years ago. Out of the 200+ countries in the world there were security and political status watch reports availabile on about 80 of those countries. Within one month of that report, Libyan leader Gaddafi was overthrown and civil war started. Libyan was one of the most stable countries over the previous 30 years and yet ICG did not even mention Libya in their report nor did they rate Libya as having even moderate political risk.

Libya They did not see it coming.

So, either ICG have no on the ground clue on the reality of the political risk of each country they write reports on, or large history changing events can happen very quickly and without warning in even the most stable countries.