Smoke, Smog, Dust 2015 Chiang Mai

[Diplomatico]

On the bright side, the 10 day forecast for CM on weather.com predicts a 50% chance for rain 10 days from now. Fingers crossed.

[CNXBKKMAN]

On the bright side, the 10 day forecast for CM on weather.com predicts a 50% chance for rain 10 days from now. Fingers crossed.

There were a few lonely spots of rain in the city on Monday night. Almost nothing though.

[Mapguy]

Yes, Tywais, it was 2007, and it was really, really terrible for some days. Since then, most every year --- except for one since then with unusual intermittent showers (People can guess which year; it makes no difference in the course of years!) --- the story has been the same but not as severe for so long. The year 2007 was one, unfortunately, to remember. There were more before, but in recent memory, that year was extreme. On some days this year, unfortunately, there have been similar days. And pity anyone in Mae Hong Son!

Understand that there were (still are) local campaigns (certainly not by expats) to do something to solve this problem. People, unfortunately, do get older and simply exhausted by the effort.

The same monitoring stations were reporting in many years past as now, although I have not heard for some years news about the mobile unit, which might be the same that parked at the summer palace during the nasty season and, apparently, would occasionally wander around Chiang Mai. The same results, basically, are reported from year to year, with some understandable variations from year to year. The good news is that the PCD DOES understand the problem and does seem to be doing ever better (if slowly) at improving monitoring and reporting. This year, for Chiang Mai, PM<2.5 is reported. That is a major escalation, in some ways, in drawing peoples' attemtion to what the dangers really are. There is no conspiracy to hide anything. But PCD and its parent, the ministry, can really do no more than report and advise. They can not enforce.

The other thing that has not changed really from year to year is the official response. First, meetings; then silly public relations stunts like having the governor de jour mount the extension ladder of a fire truck to spray the local market, sending up a very, very modest "fleet" of aircraft with no effective purpose, really, except to possibly fool the very stupid who might actually believe that aerial bombardment by water spary from a few planes over a vast area makes any difference.

Is Myanmar to blame!! Those nasty Burmese! Annual burning IS a regional problem, but blaming the Burmese is no more than pissing back into the SW monsoon. And blame China for a sometimes relatively stable high pressure system "trapping" smoke. Get real! Yes, there is a regional problem, but really dramatic improvements woudl occur if Thailand doused its fires. It is that simple!

Dousing the fires, however, is NOT simple. It is a socioeconomic (therefore serious political) as well as health problem The agricultural alternatives to burning are relatively expensive, but the governments of Thailand have not looked seriously enough (or been able to act) at the alternatives seriously enough and funded them. Better crop subsidies for votes! Agricultural policy is a difficult row to hoe --- Just ask the immediate past regime!--- but there does seem to be an increasingly obvious gap between good agricultural and public health policy.

By the way, for those who like to take the "TIT" (This Is Thailand!) critical approach: Balls! (Or as some might prefer: "rubbish!" That ignores the experience of every country which has been through or is still going through the same trauma from swidden peasant-based agriculture to other practices that take broader impacts into mind.

[sfmadison2]

So it looks like the air quality index site i was checking has stopped updating across Thailand -- last updated on Friday at 5pm. Any reason to read something conspiratorial into this?

http://aqicn.org/city/thailand/chiangmai/city-hall/

Does anyone know of another site? Air quality sure feels bad this morning (near the train station, Chiang Mai). I can feel it in my eyes.

[khwaibah]

Yes sir.. SLASH and Burn oner SE Asia.

[vivid]

So it looks like the air quality index site i was checking has stopped updating across Thailand -- last updated on Friday at 5pm. Any reason to read something conspiratorial into this?

http://aqicn.org/city/thailand/chiangmai/city-hall/

Does anyone know of another site? Air quality sure feels bad this morning (near the train station, Chiang Mai). I can feel it in my eyes.

Hi,

aqicn merely converts the PM10 rolling average concentration (ug/m3) figure from aqmthai into AQI. This is a 24-hr moving average figure. This figure is so-called important simply because most epidemiological studies is done with a 24-hr figure.

However, I have posted a few articles stating that spikes could be extremely big and conditions like asthma/stroke/cardio-pulmonary issues can strike in the course of less than an hour of extreme exposure, hence over here in Singapore we also use the 3-hr and also 1-hr raw concentration figures.

We use a slightly different index called PSI. Ultimately, all these API/AQI/PSI are indexes, figures derived from raw concentration data expressed in ug/m3 (micrograms per cubic metre). Certain health advisories are then given for a certain range.

Recently, Singapore's environmental agency also reported the PM2.5 hourly figure that is sampled an averaged for the past hour.

This number is very useful for seeing trends and whether or not should you go out to job or plan a trip to the zoo with the kids etc.

Fortunately, I read from Mapguy that Thai PCD has started releaseing PM2.5 hourly data in 2015. I can see like about 8 stations reporting PM2.5 hourly data.

Do check out station 35t and 36t which are CM's.

http://aqmthai.com/public_report.php

From my past few days of eyeballing the data, I am confident to say that PM2.5 is the main pollutant that really would affect your body.

Use the ug/m3 figure and key it into this website.

http://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=resources.conc_aqi_calc

I know the health advisories are mean for 24-hr figures, but you do know your own body and how it reacts to particulate pollution. Especially for the sensitive/susceptible folks, just follow the advisories.

PS. WHO and Western Australia DER has the strictest standards of them all. Currently, it does not recommend a PM2.5 (24-hr) of more than 25 ug/m3. China's current standard is 75 ug/m3 24-hr mean.

A picture tells a thousand words. You can take that PM2.5 and PM10 concentration ug/m3levels are nearly neck-to-neck, and PM2.5 is significantly way more dangerous than PM10 at the same concentration (use the calculator above)

This is the latest for Chiang Mai station 36t (though it's lags from current timing of 10.45 by a wee bit)

Edited March 15, 2015 by vivid

[T_Dog]

Just got back from a ten minute motorcycle ride with the N95 mask on but the eyes watered horribly. The smoke in my area is the worst this year, likely due to the fires we saw yesterday not far from us. This is going to be a bad week, as there are already many people ill from the burning.

[vivid]

Yes, Tywais, it was 2007, and it was really, really terrible for some days.

..

..

..

The good news is that the PCD DOES understand the problem and does seem to be doing ever better (if slowly) at improving monitoring and reporting. This year, for Chiang Mai, PM<2.5 is reported. That is a major escalation, in some ways, in drawing peoples' attemtion to what the dangers really are. There is no conspiracy to hide anything. But PCD and its parent, the ministry, can really do no more than report and advise. They can not enforce.

silly public relations stunts like having the governor de jour mount the extension ladder of a fire truck to spray the local market, sending up a very, very modest "fleet" of aircraft with no effective purpose, really, except to possibly fool the very stupid who might actually believe that aerial bombardment by water spary from a few planes over a vast area makes any difference.

Is Myanmar to blame!!

Agricultural policy is a difficult row to hoe ---

By the way, for those who like to take the "TIT" (This Is Thailand!) critical approach:

Bro, good post.

Your comments reflect the exact same situation here with Indonesia/Singapore/Malaysia. Same public relation antics at work. Balancing commercial interest (it's palm oil in Indo, big commercial firms with roots in all 3 countries + international) and public pressure.

But to be fair, Indonesia has another trick up its sleeves and it does try cloud seeding but the result is quite mixed. If there are indeed some decent moisture and perhaps cumulonimbus clouds formation probability is high, isolated showers can be made to form and with some luck the hotspots do get temporarily supressed for a day or two. But it DOES work somewhat if luck is on their side.

"TIT"...Same thing here.

Some (not all, of course) of their ministers can be pretty nasty

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/indonesia-vice-president/1693242.html

“For 11 months, they enjoyed nice air from Indonesia and they never thanked us. They have suffered because of the haze for one month and they get upset,"

In 2013, the same Vice President told Singapore (Singaporeans) to shop behaving like children complaining about the severe haze (peaks of 3-hr 500 ug/m3 PM10 and 24-hr mean of 292ug/m3 PM2.5, no less). Shortly after, their President came out to apologise to Malaysia and SG.

Edited March 15, 2015 by vivid

[vivid]

Just got back from a ten minute motorcycle ride with the N95 mask on but the eyes watered horribly. The smoke in my area is the worst this year, likely due to the fires we saw yesterday not far from us. This is going to be a bad week, as there are already many people ill from the burning.

I now understand what you were talking about earlier. Seems like the daily "pattern" is the winds would clear some of the pollution by 1100-1200h Thailand time. But you mentioned if the wind speeds should go down.....

[TheAppletons]

Help is on the way. Rain is currently forecast for 22-24 March, according to weather.com.

[vivid]

I believe you, I did a bit of digging more and it seems that just comparing highest 24-hr average numbers for 2014 is slightly higher than what 2015 got. (about +20%) Perhaps there are other years that had even worse conditions.

The numbers seem smaller for some reason then now and wonder if measurement methods were different. There were significant hospitalizations during that period, seem to remember around 10,000.

Hi there,

Thanks for the welcome!

Yeah, the pollution measurements (24hr PM10) doesn't seem to be that much different. But the hospitalisation visits is a telling number. The thing about rural and ultra-rural parts of Thailand, Myanmar, Indonesia is that many are just living above the poverty line. Yes they farm and probably can't do nuts about the burning coz that's their way of doing things + it's free, but not to the extent that they harm themselves and their kids/elderly etc.

Ultimately its a v complex situation, and the govts aren't going to do a lot if the purse strings don't get affected (or country's GDP).

One thing I'd like to mention is that El Nino has been officially declared in early March by NOAA, though it's a very weak one. I think it has already been declared by JMA (Japan) in Jan or something. This year, SEA is already experiencing quite a fair bit of lower rainfall during this dry phase of the NE monsoon from late Jan to Mar. Is it due to that? I think all the climate scientists are very careful with their words now, coz they screwed up badly with their 2014's prediction of a major El Nino which means all the countries in our region are going to get marked lower rainfall. 1997 SEA haze (super widespread haze that affected many countries like Philippines and S Thailand province as well) was due to that 1997 mega El Nino.

[sfmadison2]

Thanks for that info, vivid. Those levels are even worse than what I was expecting!

[vivid]

Help is on the way. Rain is currently forecast for 22-24 March, according to weather.com.

I see that on wunderground too. Believe it's the remnants of tropical storm (Bavi). Should bring some decent showers.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201503W.html

Edited March 15, 2015 by vivid

[vivid]

Thanks for that info, vivid. Those levels are even worse than what I was expecting!

Still rising....

1000h station 36t in CM. 1-hr readings

PM2.5 = 251ug/m3

PM10 = 263 ug/m3

35t

PM10 = 269

Sation 58t Mae Song Hon

0900h PM10 = 472 ug/m3

1000h PM10 = 418 ug/m3

[Tywais]

One thing I'd like to mention is that El Nino has been officially declared in early March by NOAA, though it's a very weak one. I think it has already been declared by JMA (Japan) in Jan or something. This year, SEA is already experiencing quite a fair bit of lower rainfall during this dry phase of the NE monsoon from late Jan to Mar. Is it due to that?

From the tables, El Niño was weak in 2007 and La Niña mild in 2007. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm As for 2015:

El Nino Officially Declared for 2015

Just when everyone had pretty much written it off, the El Niño event that has been nearly a year in the offing finally emerged in February and could last through the spring and summer, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

This isn’t the blockbuster, 1998 repeat El Niño many anticipated when the first hints of an impending event emerged about a year ago. This El Niño has just crept across the official threshold, so it won’t be a strong event.

More here - Scientific American

[watcharacters]

Seems to never change but if it did there'd be howls from TV members about "nanny State" changes.

I personally don't think it's likely Thailand will ever be stepping forward to address the air quality in Chaing Mai or anywhere else in the country unless there's something in it for the powers that be.

It's up to the people and the government to decide what's best for this country.

No one else's business I'd say.

[vivid]

4-days PM10 1-hr concentrations of Mae Hong Son (purple), Chiang Rai (green) and CM (orange/yellow).

[vivid]

There has been some confusion on the numbers displayed on aqicn.

aqicn gets the feed from the official agencies for various countries. I have verified that it's correct for Singapore, China and Thailand.

The difference is more on how the official agencies provide the numbers. China and Singapore publishes real-time hourly PM2.5 concentrations and aqicn feeds on this to display on its web. They also publish PM10, China is hourly for PM10 but Singapore instead publishes 24-hr PM10.

PCD, aqmthai.com publishes PM10 (24-hr) only.

You can check out how "dynamic" the graph for Beijing is, it can go from green to yellow to orange to red to purple within a day or two. Sometimes you can see dark brown (Hazardous) even.

Compare this with the Thai figures, and we know that the situation in Thai is quite dynamic too (look at the graph in 1 post above)

[vivid]

4-days PM10 1-hr concentrations of Mae Hong Son (purple), Chiang Rai (green) and CM (orange/yellow).

I know the advisories are for 24-hr figures. But just a raw conversion, since aqicn for Beijing is using 1-hr figures as well.

Station 36t Chiang Mai on March 10th 0700hr peak, PM2.5.

15 Mar, 1000h station 36t in CM. 1-hr readings

PM2.5 = 251ug/m3

Edited March 15, 2015 by vivid

[nikster]

Just got out of CM .Today is not the worst day, PM10 120 - 130.

However. This is the view from above. I present to you, "Under the Dome", Thailand edition:

[puck2]

Many thanks to @awk, @vivid and all the others who tried to give us objective and useful information. This ist very different from some years before.

Without any exact measurement, the smoke conditions of last night and today in the morning have been the worst this year here in the neighbourhood of the Pai valley - MHS. The air is worst at night until high noon. Later on, when the wind moves the air a little bit, the air is getting better, but still very bad.

Thai TV channels report about every tiny shit in this country. But miss the relevant problems whe discuss here. Guess why?

BTW, one reason why the Thai officials have problems with PM2,5:

Fine particles (PM2.5). Particles less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter are called "fine" particles. These particles are so small they can be detected only with an electron microscope. Sources of fine particles include all types of combustion, including motor vehicles, power plants, residential wood burning, forest fires, agricultural burning, and some industrial processes.

http://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=aqibasics.particle

Even if they are now reporting the PM2,5 it is only window dressing. No serious actions are taken to fight the problem.

[EnlightenedAtheist]

While the present haze in CM is more than annoying, let's not forget that the use of diesel fuel in many European countries is equally worrisome!

Researchers uncover a mechanism linking inhaled diesel pollution and respiratory distress

Researchers in the UK have, for the first time, shown how exhaust pollution from diesel engines is able to affect nerves within the lung. Air pollution is a significant threat to health, they say, and identifying potential mechanisms linking exposure to diesel exhaust and the exacerbation of respiratory diseases may lead to treatments for those affected.

Mr. Ryan Robinson, a PhD student at the National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, UK, will tell the 13th European Respiratory Society Lung Science Conference today (Saturday) about his work studying diesel exhaust particles and airway sensory nerves. The news comes as the Healthy Lungs for Life campaign, launched by the European Respiratory Society and European Lung Foundation, takes places this year aiming to raise awareness of the importance of breathing clean air.

[...]

"We hope that our work may lead to treatments or management strategies than can help those with respiratory diseases such as asthma that are particularly affected by air pollution," says Mr. Robinson. "Our results indicate that our reliance on fossil fuels, and particularly diesel, could have a detrimental effect on our health, supporting the idea that we should be looking towards alternative fuel sources. We believe that our data highlight an important alternative mechanism by which diesel contributes to respiratory illness and will further influence governments in the quest to initiate change," he will conclude.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150314084127.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily+%28Latest+Science+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

[vivid]

Just got out of CM .Today is not the worst day, PM10 120 - 130.

However. This is the view from above. I present to you, "Under the Dome", Thailand edition:

11009926_10153100537984004_6047064048831624292_n.jpg

That definitely can't be clouds, since it's so dry there in Thailand, Laos, Myanmar etc.

IR Image, today, 1600h. On the rightmost edge just east of PHilippines, you can see Tropical storm Bavi. This is supposed to travel west and bring showers to Thailand next Monday.

Visible, today, 1500h

Edited March 15, 2015 by vivid

[vivid]

While the present haze in CM is more than annoying, let's not forget that the use of diesel fuel in many European countries is equally worrisome!

They found in that Under The Dome Chinese documentary video that in heavy duty vehicles, non-compliant vehicles (read : absolutely no emission control measures installed) in China are half a million (500,000X) more polluting than their environmentally-friendly compliant counterparts.

Diesel vehicles are extremely clean nowadays, from Euro 5 standard onwards.

But yes, if you are living right next to a busy highway, you'd have some worries. (do use a HEPA air purifier)

[vivid]

Many thanks to @awk, @vivid and all the others who tried to give us objective and useful information. This ist very different from some years before.

Without any exact measurement, the smoke conditions of last night and today in the morning have been the worst this year here in the neighbourhood of the Pai valley - MHS. The air is worst at night until high noon. Later on, when the wind moves the air a little bit, the air is getting better, but still very bad.

Thanks for giving some first-hand account of the situation at Mae Hong Son. If you read the previous page, I posted some pictures regarding the PM10 hourly readings in MHS for the past 4 days. It peaked on yesterday and perhaps today.

No PM2.5 readings, but from what you can see from station 36t in Chiang Mai the PM2.5 concentration value is just a wee bit lower than the PM10 concentration value. But at the same ug/m3 conc value, the AQI number is much much higher. Do take care man. If you know of any pregnant women, elderly, infants and toddlers, and especially those with any stroke/heart issue and risks, do warn them.

[nikster]

Just got out of CM .Today is not the worst day, PM10 120 - 130.

However. This is the view from above. I present to you, "Under the Dome", Thailand edition:

11009926_10153100537984004_6047064048831624292_n.jpg

That definitely can't be clouds, since it's so dry there in Thailand, Laos, Myanmar etc.

It doesn't look like clouds, either. Clouds are never this flat, and never have this color. This is just a flat, grey soup that covers all of Northern Thailand, Laos, Burma. Never seen anything like it to be honest.

Rain would be a godsend, I hope it makes it to Thailand. The air got slightly better than in the pic about halfway to Bangkok - then the ground was visible, even if through a haze. Only really got good in Bangkok city though. Even 10 minutes out (by plane) it was still hazy.

[vivid]

There are 3 modern ways of measuring Particulate Matter (PM2.5, PM10, PM0.3 etc). Current field technology that's short of stuff that's used in a science lab setting can measure down to 0.1 microns.

1. Beta Attenuation Monitoring. This is used by air quality monitoring stations. It's "old-tech", but accurate.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_attenuation_monitoring

2. Filter Element. This is the the only direct way of measuring the mass of PM in the air. A suitable filter element is used and is carefully weighed before deployment for say 24-hrs. After deployment, it is carefully weighed again.

There are several factors that must be carefully controlled or else errors would be made. Eg, in Indonesia, they use this method, it is extremely accurate if done correctly, but they mailed the filter element from a field station in a town to be scientifically weighed in the capital in a lab. They used normal POST. Even if there was careful handling by a courier, the time taken means that there is always some "decay". In the end, an audit found that the measurements were always way off. What the....

3. Laser Particle Counter. A laser beam is carefully focused and the light attenuation is measured.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Particle_counter

3a. Most air purifiers use a IR LED instead of a laser in the module. It's much cheaper, and usually you don't need that exact a performance anyway.

My RMB299 (about 1500 THB) laser particle counter "module". There is another screen in which it'd show you the 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 micron 10 microns particle counts.

Is it accurate? I think it's more than good enough for "home use" and measuring the output of air purifiers especially with some of my DIY HEPAs sourced very cheaply from China.

[vivid]

It doesn't look like clouds, either. Clouds are never this flat, and never have this color. This is just a flat, grey soup that covers all of Northern Thailand, Laos, Burma. Never seen anything like it to be honest.

Rain would be a godsend, I hope it makes it to Thailand. The air got slightly better than in the pic about halfway to Bangkok - then the ground was visible, even if through a haze. Only really got good in Bangkok city though. Even 10 minutes out (by plane) it was still hazy.

Myanmmar satellite pics (2013)

Edited March 15, 2015 by vivid

[vivid]

Woah, just watched the TV advert slot over her in Singapore. The 10PM news is going to report about the serious haze situation in NE Thailand. There are some "gross" pictures.

You guys just made it famous!

[T_Dog]

Stations 35T and 36T are reporting 165 and 236 micrograms PM10 per cubic meter at 7 PM tonight which is the highest evening level for the season. Will be interesting to see how high the level is by the morning as the cooler descending air brings in more particulates into the CM valley from the mountains.