Just wondering --- Does anyone see the Dollar-Baht rate finally breaking through 33 Baht?

[GOLDBUGGY]

Sure! The US Economy is picking up steam and lower oil prices are good for growth in most countries,. With the exception of Oil Exporting Countries, which the USA is not one of them. With lower than expect growth now predicted for Thailand in 2015, I see this happening pretty soon.

[rickirs]

35 by March 2015

[smotherb]

The day after the Dow Jones goes higher than ever before, and the Baht GAINS against the dollar - something seriously wrong !

yeah, and we are all older than we were before, but there are more younger people, go figure

[gandalf12]

Definitely and could go a lot higher, especially if tourist numbers drop like they very possibly will. If they have not got big numbers of tourists now then the rest of the year they can forget. This is the high High season

[elgenon]

Maybe. It spiked when the Fed announced interest will remain low. Possibly the increased oil production in the US will strengthen the dollar but at the current prices oil produced from fracking would be sold at a loss.

For some fracking yes, but other flacking is being done at the $32 to $40 per barrel now. Fracking costs have come down a lot from the days a few years ago when they needed around $80 a barrel to be profitable.

The dollar will steenghten when the Fed raises rates mak mak. The Baht seems to be pegged to the dollar within a narrow range. Up to the general if the rate is worth defending.

[elgenon]

Have read in a few reliable sources (don't remember now, but major finance/econ publications) that it would break 34 some time in 2015. Of course, you never know, but I read it from analysts in North America and Thailand, for what it's worth.

I am hopeful, haha.

It will crack 34 late August. It will dip below 33.5 right after Sept 11. Later in September the world banking system will collapse and only gold will be worth having, silver is ok if you are in the USA.

I have friends who have predicited this every year for the last 8. It seems that gold has decreased in that span. If I had listened to them I would have cashed everything out and bought golt at $1900. I did read that the Fed expects gold to rise next year.

[Shiver]

The day after the Dow Jones goes higher than ever before, and the Baht GAINS against the dollar - something seriously wrong !

There are a lot more digi-dollars in existence now than a few years ago, so even with zero growth perhaps the DOW has to increase it's numerical value to compensate(?). If it's just the best of a bad group of currencies then it may appear strong when actually they're all bad (relative differences sure, but in absolute terms it's a nasty dilution of purchasing power).

If you think of the price of gasoline/beer/cigarettes/sticky rice from half a dozen years ago or so, purchasing power for US citizens and Thai citizens alike aren't doing so great. I earn in EUR converted to HKD which is pegged to the USD (with wiggle room), before converting again to THB so I'm in the same boat but with an extra middleman.

[Strangebrew]

I know I been tracking the rates for a long time I feel the Baht has been over valued for a long time. And with this recent news of embezzlement of 1.2 billion baht from a bank management staff I feel there will be soon a shakeup maybe The rate of exchange may reach 40+ to 1 USD by summer 2015 So you might want to hold off any large transfer of funds to your account here. I also posted this earlier in the year and was laughed at but as you can see It is moving that direction.

[khunken]

The Baht is not really moving in any direction. It has been moving up and down within a range of 31.9 to 32.9 for the last year.

Last December 31st it was 32.87, exactly the same as last Friday. Will it hit 33 - yes and then probably drop back.

All my rates are the mid-rates quoted in the Bangkok Post Saturday edition - I follow them & others every week.

[thejcb]

Why ask a question like that here ?

Do you think the TV readers are currency traders ? Of course not, most here don't have a clue what is going on about anything (although most like to THINK they do).

What a place to ask a question like that !! It's laughable.

Why not go ask someone that knows what they are "talking" about ?

Even then nobody can ever be sure otherwise we would all be multi-billionaires

[shaurene]

Yes it will break through 33. Early next year.

[slipperylobster]

It broke 33 a few times already..just recently. I am looking at the monthly chart on bloomberg. We all want it to go higher..but it seems just to flirt with that 33 line...and then it settles lower. Probably by the large amount of dollars on hand. Right now, it would be wise not to let it get out of hand.... I would say politics is holding it back.

[slipperylobster]

Yes it will break through 33. Early next year.

Then it would be wise to wait..and not buy baht right now... ? Keep savings in USD? A sure thing?

[maswov]

Maybe. It spiked when the Fed announced interest will remain low. Possibly the increased oil production in the US will strengthen the dollar but at the current prices oil produced from fracking would be sold at a loss.

For some fracking yes, but other flacking is being done at the $32 to $40 per barrel now. Fracking costs have come down a lot from the days a few years ago when they needed around $80 a barrel to be profitable.

That's cool, last figure I heard was $60-$70/bbl

[JacChang]

I would like to point out, with recent USD appreciation, most of the world's currency experience a sharp appreciation with regards to USD. HOWEVER, do not expect the same from Thailand. Reasons I will discuss below.

1) The first question, will 33 be broken? Yes, that is not the real question. We are expecting for it to lightly touch 34 in about 4-5 months time, so traders could expect to sell some at 33.9ish.

2) On April 19, 2013, is when the USD started it's appreciation against the THB and it ended January 2014. It already has what we call "it's run". Yes it is tired, but does it have a reason to turn around yet? The answer is no. In the meantime, the USD will still appreciate against the THB, but keep in mind it is tired and won't be as powerful as other currencies are experiencing.

My outlook for USD against THB is it will flattened out soon but still has room to go up, however the attitude with most investors are still appreciating the USD. And no, it will not drop during this year's time.

[elgenon]

Maybe. It spiked when the Fed announced interest will remain low. Possibly the increased oil production in the US will strengthen the dollar but at the current prices oil produced from fracking would be sold at a loss.

For some fracking yes, but other flacking is being done at the $32 to $40 per barrel now. Fracking costs have come down a lot from the days a few years ago when they needed around $80 a barrel to be profitable.

As an aside, Europe could be more independent of Russia if they allowed fracking.

Also, remember oil is priced in $

That's cool, last figure I heard was $60-$70/bbl

[MyFriend You]

Why ask a question like that here ?

Do you think the TV readers are currency traders ? Of course not, most here don't have a clue what is going on about anything (although most like to THINK they do).

What a place to ask a question like that !! It's laughable.

Why not go ask someone that knows what they are "talking" about ?

Even then nobody can ever be sure otherwise we would all be multi-billionaires

Any Suggestions?? Inquiring minds want to know.........I'm about to transfer in about 100K USD any ideas when would be the best approx time to pull the trigger??

[Diplomatico]

Self delete.

Edited December 25, 2014 by Diplomatico

[kwak250]

I must admit the Thai baht is probably the strongest currency in the world.

Even the mobs in Bangkok/military coup/Floods /Burmese nationals causing trouble .Nothing seems to affect it in fact pound sterling now at 50.

I cant wait for the country to get back to normal..maybe it works opposite here?

[el jefe]

I know I been tracking the rates for a long time I feel the Baht has been over valued for a long time. And with this recent news of embezzlement of 1.2 billion baht from a bank management staff I feel there will be soon a shakeup maybe The rate of exchange may reach 40+ to 1 USD by summer 2015 So you might want to hold off any large transfer of funds to your account here. I also posted this earlier in the year and was laughed at but as you can see It is moving that direction.

The baht was over 33 for the entire first week in January:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=1Y

The baht is not moving in any direction against the dollar.

"The rate of exchange may reach 40+ to 1 USD by summer 2015"

It may.

And I may be elected PM.

[UDONJIM]

Short term or should I say short time, a good chance of breaking thru 33.

Don't expect it to last long term though, once the rest of the world starts to recover, oil prices increase etc... and more attractive options appear on the scene.

US currency and economy is in a relatively decent place at the moment... relatively.

Cheers

Fletch

[alex8912]

it already has, then it dropped back last week.

Yea, but that brief pop above 33 was only at the forex trading level; not at the customer level like for money transfers, ATM withdrawals, etc.

I got 32.95 at the exchange next to the new Jim Thompson restaurant on Surawong last week. I think they have the best rates for all currencies and open Monday to say 9 to 6.

[UDONJIM]

55555.... Another one of the mesmerized populace. The American economy is on it's last legs with no powder left in the magazine. Zero interest rates, QE finished (although wait for QE4?), 18 trillion in debt and no real growth to talk of and please don't expound the increased (lie) recent GDP figures. Many ,many American negative statistics I could quote here, but not enough space!! The markets are in for a massive correction soon and many people will feel the effects. However, in a roundabout way, your assumption about the US dollar is correct. the world is awash with US dollar-denominated debt and payback time is fast approaching. There are massive repayments (in a strenghthened dollar) due and also defaults (due to zero interest loans) are just around the corner, all around the world. Therefore a 'demand' for US dollars, at an affordable price will lead to a 'shortage' = strengthening US dollar. With respect to the baht against other currencies, China has to devalue the yuan (already happening) to stay competitive in the export market, other regional currencies will have to do likewise to remain competitive. Ever hear the term 'currency wars', it's fast approaching. So, yes, my outlook for virtually all currencies against the Thai baht is,( especially for us ex-pats) it's on the up and up!

[Jungle Jim]

My hunch is it will hit 40 baht to the dollar within a year. A big bubble is about to burst much like 1997. The banks are loaning out huge amounts of money and no one soon will have the money to repay them. Everyone is in debt. Thailand like many countries never learns.

[elgenon]

I know I been tracking the rates for a long time I feel the Baht has been over valued for a long time. And with this recent news of embezzlement of 1.2 billion baht from a bank management staff I feel there will be soon a shakeup maybe The rate of exchange may reach 40+ to 1 USD by summer 2015 So you might want to hold off any large transfer of funds to your account here. I also posted this earlier in the year and was laughed at but as you can see It is moving that direction.

What does embezzlement from one bank have to do with exchange rates??!! Why would someone laugh at your logic?? 555555

[elgenon]

55555.... Another one of the mesmerized populace. The American economy is on it's last legs with no powder left in the magazine. Zero interest rates, QE finished (although wait for QE4?), 18 trillion in debt and no real growth to talk of and please don't expound the increased (lie) recent GDP figures. Many ,many American negative statistics I could quote here, but not enough space!! The markets are in for a massive correction soon and many people will feel the effects. However, in a roundabout way, your assumption about the US dollar is correct. the world is awash with US dollar-denominated debt and payback time is fast approaching. There are massive repayments (in a strenghthened dollar) due and also defaults (due to zero interest loans) are just around the corner, all around the world. Therefore a 'demand' for US dollars, at an affordable price will lead to a 'shortage' = strengthening US dollar. With respect to the baht against other currencies, China has to devalue the yuan (already happening) to stay competitive in the export market, other regional currencies will have to do likewise to remain competitive. Ever hear the term 'currency wars', it's fast approaching. So, yes, my outlook for virtually all currencies against the Thai baht is,( especially for us ex-pats) it's on the up and up!

Oh my , facts can be depressing. Better to scare others with your fantasy.

[paddyjenkins]

Let me share with you an absolute truth.....nobody, and I mean nobody can be absolutely sure.

Let me share another little truth....of all the predictions that are made by experts 90 percent are wrong.

If they knew they would be rich beyond their wildest dreams, and would not have to work as a predictor.

There are no certainties .............

Thanks for sharing that with us. Until I read your post I believed that everything experts said was correct and that they always got everything right and that the world was perfectly certain. But now I have been enlightened by your profoundly wise advice and I understand that 90% of the predictions of experts are wrong and now I also know there are no certainties. Thanks again.

[mitsubishi]

My hunch is it will hit 40 baht to the dollar within a year. A big bubble is about to burst much like 1997. The banks are loaning out huge amounts of money and no one soon will have the money to repay them. Everyone is in debt. Thailand like many countries never learns.

We've been saying for 10 years this exact thing, but each year proves that talk wrong.

Thailand's finances are too tight-stringed nowadays to let another '97 crash happen.

You can shake those jungle vines jim, but there's no money gonna flutter down...

[zierf1]

Just doing some basic technical analysis I think it's only going to get better from here. 2008 & 2011 the dollar carved out a massive double bottom. I think 40 is possible in a couple years.

[UDONJIM]

55555.... Another one of the mesmerized populace. The American economy is on it's last legs with no powder left in the magazine. Zero interest rates, QE finished (although wait for QE4?), 18 trillion in debt and no real growth to talk of and please don't expound the increased (lie) recent GDP figures. Many ,many American negative statistics I could quote here, but not enough space!! The markets are in for a massive correction soon and many people will feel the effects. However, in a roundabout way, your assumption about the US dollar is correct. the world is awash with US dollar-denominated debt and payback time is fast approaching. There are massive repayments (in a strenghthened dollar) due and also defaults (due to zero interest loans) are just around the corner, all around the world. Therefore a 'demand' for US dollars, at an affordable price will lead to a 'shortage' = strengthening US dollar. With respect to the baht against other currencies, China has to devalue the yuan (already happening) to stay competitive in the export market, other regional currencies will have to do likewise to remain competitive. Ever hear the term 'currency wars', it's fast approaching. So, yes, my outlook for virtually all currencies against the Thai baht is,( especially for us ex-pats) it's on the up and up!

Oh my , facts can be depressing. Better to scare others with your fantasy.

Hey elgenon, sorry to have depressed you, that was not my intention. Maybe you are one of these people who believe in the US government-sponsored mass media who are still spewing lies about the 'real' state of the US economy. I don't want to get too technical here but can I just say that the junk bond market associated particularly with the US oil fracking industry(worth trillions of dollars) is already cracking (and has been since June). Now that oil has plunged 50%, the whole industry is unraveling fast, only the very strongest will be left standing. But it's the collapse of the bonds associated with that industry which will soon bring about a massive exodus of money (starting already) from that market and of course history tells us that when the bond market collapses, the stock market certainly follows.

I am a private investor. I do all my own fundamental and technical analysis. I have no axe to grind whether the market is going up or down. The reason I don't care is I make money either way, rising or falling markets. But every indicator I possess tells me a substantial market correction (crash) is imminent. So that's my fantasy and I apologise for that. IMHO the only hope for the markets of the world (as whatever happens in the US market will obviously impact everywhere else) is QE4 which Obama may instigate to try and stave off a market collapse on 'his watch' but even that will only be a sticking plaster on a water dyke (unless QE5 ha-ha) because ultimately the market will drown in it's own debt.

I promise elgenon, if all this does not come to pass, I will publicly apologise to you here on TV. Are you prepared to do the same?