IMA_FARANG Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just wondering if any of the "exchange rate trackers" on this forum subject think the U.S. Dollar will finally break through the 33 Baht to a dollar barrier? Been flirting pretty close for a couple of weeks now. Was briefly at 32.9. I get a pension in Dollars every month. I can remember, only a couple of years ago, when it was at under 29 baht to a Dollar, at least for a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tookwan cottage Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 YES. And it makes me very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pib Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Sure....dollar appreciation against most countries is still on the rise...give it a few weeks or months....currency exchange value changes are usually a slow process unless a major financial event hits a country. Now if, when, and how much above 33 baht/USD it goes and for how long it stays above 33 is anyone's guess....and I'm sure there are plenty of folks who feel the dollar-baht exchange rate has peaked--heck, they may be right. But my guess is the exchange rate will get above 33 again in the near future...just a little above 33 within 30 days is what my cheap, Made in China crystal ball is saying--and it has an accuracy percentage of 50%....pretty much equal to coin flipping. Disclaimer: I'm usually drinking Chang beer while viewing the crystal ball so that may affect its accuracy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeremyBowskill Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yes it will break 33 100%!!! Quite when, well....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMuddle Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The day after the Dow Jones goes higher than ever before, and the Baht GAINS against the dollar - something seriously wrong ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMA_FARANG Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 After I posted this question, I was watching the Bloomberg program. By coincidence they had a topic on this with one for their FX "experts". Her prediction was above 33 in the first two months of the new year, maybe earlier. But expected it to drop back, at least slightly, in the 2nd half of the year. I would have guessed that myself, anyway. Nice of the Bloomberg analysts to read this forum topic and then answer my question within 8 hours on their worldwide show! Just shows you that Thai Visa must have more influence than we thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ToddinChonburi Posted December 24, 2014 Popular Post Share Posted December 24, 2014 it already has, then it dropped back last week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pib Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 it already has, then it dropped back last week. Yea, but that brief pop above 33 was only at the forex trading level; not at the customer level like for money transfers, ATM withdrawals, etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fletchsmile Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Short term or should I say short time, a good chance of breaking thru 33. Don't expect it to last long term though, once the rest of the world starts to recover, oil prices increase etc... and more attractive options appear on the scene. US currency and economy is in a relatively decent place at the moment... relatively. Cheers Fletch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el jefe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 What all of the economic experts here forget is that when the dollar/pound/euro rises against the baht all of their favorite imported products, like petrol, goes up in price negating all the anticipated benefits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estrada Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 (edited) The Baht will not drop due to the fact that there are so many infrastructure developments(roads/rail/4G) taking place next year, which will pull in more foreign investors who will need to buy Baht in order to trade on the SET, or in connection with their construction and manufacturing projects. Indeed, the forex future projection until September 2015 is fairly steady at B32/$1. Edited December 25, 2014 by Estrada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capt635 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Like everyone else with an income in USD, I and especially my good wife are more than happy to see the Baht rate rising. Happy New Year to you all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goatfarmer Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 34 before May, 35 before October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maswov Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Maybe. It spiked when the Fed announced interest will remain low. Possibly the increased oil production in the US will strengthen the dollar but at the current prices oil produced from fracking would be sold at a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pib Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 (edited) Maybe. It spiked when the Fed announced interest will remain low. Possibly the increased oil production in the US will strengthen the dollar but at the current prices oil produced from fracking would be sold at a loss. For some fracking yes, but other flacking is being done at the $32 to $40 per barrel now. Fracking costs have come down a lot from the days a few years ago when they needed around $80 a barrel to be profitable. Edited December 25, 2014 by Pib Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBoy Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 My Thai wife read an article that said the Thai gov't would like to devalue the baht to about 36 to the dollar. Don't know the time frame on that as that would make exports cheaper. Being a US farang I am all for the number 36 or greater. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1FinickyOne Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I think that most forecasts are for continued strength of the dollar though more reflected agst the Euro/yen - the baht seems to be lagging this trend… my guess is that it will continue to decline agst the dollar, but for someone who was accustomed to over 40 - anything less feels like a haircut… though the other important factor to be considered is not only the rate, but the buying power… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elgordo38 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The day after the Dow Jones goes higher than ever before, and the Baht GAINS against the dollar - something seriously wrong ! I agree. Our Canadian dollar is really suffering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
namatjira Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Let me share with you an absolute truth.....nobody, and I mean nobody can be absolutely sure. Let me share another little truth....of all the predictions that are made by experts 90 percent are wrong. If they knew they would be rich beyond their wildest dreams, and would not have to work as a predictor. There are no certainties ............. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timebandit Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 (edited) As other counties join the race to the bottom, so may go Thailand. All markets are now manipulated. Your question will be answered by a few elite banksters as they see it lining their pockets. As for a "recovery" you have to stop hanging on every word from Bloomberg. Edited December 25, 2014 by Timebandit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan653 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I am also on a monthly pension. I keep hoping the baht will rise above 33 and hopefully more. I wire transfer my money once each month from my bank in the US. And i do watch the Bloomberg channel often to keep up on the markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PHP87 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 There's an App. called "Currency Converter" that allows you to track numerous exchange rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lahgon29 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The day after the Dow Jones goes higher than ever before, and the Baht GAINS against the dollar - something seriously wrong ! I agree. Our Canadian dollar is really suffering. Mate, you don't know what suffering Is....I'm waiting for the Oz dollar to crack through 26, down to 25..the glory days of 32 were only a couple of years ago. Funny thing Is that as most emerging market currencies are going down against the USD, the Baht isn't..This is the most teflon currency in the world. I'd be curious to know if anybody thinks there could be weakness in the Baht in the future.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dao16 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Have read in a few reliable sources (don't remember now, but major finance/econ publications) that it would break 34 some time in 2015. Of course, you never know, but I read it from analysts in North America and Thailand, for what it's worth. I am hopeful, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suradit69 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Short term or should I say short time, a good chance of breaking thru 33. Don't expect it to last long term though, once the rest of the world starts to recover, oil prices increase etc... and more attractive options appear on the scene. US currency and economy is in a relatively decent place at the moment... relatively. Cheers Fletch It's cyclical. The Euro and Japanese economies are struggling and money is flowing to the US for investment. If you've got the cash, buy more baht now and then you can slide through the lower rates when they come. Since gold (and oil & other commodities) are traded in dollars, the combination of higher dollars and cheaper baht might even make it worthwhile to park some of those cheap baht in cheap gold (in baht terms). It's speculative, but when the exchange rates reverse direction it could give a lift to gold, especially in baht terms... that is, of course, a gamble ... but isn't everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spambot Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 (edited) Macro View: If the US economic data remains strong until the Fed increase rates - This will signal investors to flow USD from Thai bonds and stocks and into US - Baht will reduce - If assuming the USD remains strong - The relative movement should give increase in USD/TBH rate. Edited December 25, 2014 by spambot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAMHERE Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Have read in a few reliable sources (don't remember now, but major finance/econ publications) that it would break 34 some time in 2015. Of course, you never know, but I read it from analysts in North America and Thailand, for what it's worth. I am hopeful, haha. It will crack 34 late August. It will dip below 33.5 right after Sept 11. Later in September the world banking system will collapse and only gold will be worth having, silver is ok if you are in the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngelsLariat Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The day after the Dow Jones goes higher than ever before, and the Baht GAINS against the dollar - something seriously wrong ! I agree. Our Canadian dollar is really suffering. Mate, you don't know what suffering Is....I'm waiting for the Oz dollar to crack through 26, down to 25..the glory days of 32 were only a couple of years ago. Funny thing Is that as most emerging market currencies are going down against the USD, the Baht isn't..This is the most teflon currency in the world. I'd be curious to know if anybody thinks there could be weakness in the Baht in the future.. That's a good point. The Dollar index has gone from about 80 to 90 but acording to Oanda the interbank USD:THB rate was 32.78 one year ago today vs 32.95 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngelsLariat Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Have read in a few reliable sources (don't remember now, but major finance/econ publications) that it would break 34 some time in 2015. Of course, you never know, but I read it from analysts in North America and Thailand, for what it's worth. I am hopeful, haha. It will crack 34 late August. It will dip below 33.5 right after Sept 11. Later in September the world banking system will collapse and only gold will be worth having, silver is ok if you are in the USA. I was wondering how long it would take before someone pointed that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Aleman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 When I came here, 10 years ago, it was 40 to a buck but may return next year when China cancels rice order ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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