Dept PM presents Thai Govt's economic accomplishments

[rubl]

The Deputy Prime Minister for Economy M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula disclosed the government economic accomplishments, stating that the country’s economy is constantly expanding with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) value expected to expand by 3 percent within this quarter.

Expected by who?

The central bank in Thailand has slashed it`s forecasts and says the economy has stagnated http://www.cnbc.com/id/102297056#.

FDI is down a staggering 38% http://www.nasdaq.com/article/thailands-tiger-economy-is-no-longer-roaring-cm414521

(in 2013 under PTP it grew 21% http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/FDI-in-Thailand-up-21-in-2013-30244041.html)

Add in the fact tourist numbers are down by 10% http://www.ttrweekly.com/site/2014/12/dreadful-year-for-thailands-tourism/ and it aint a pretty picture.

These blatant lies fool no one, the economy is in a mess and it`s getting worse.

A misrepresentation of facts.

Now of course when Thailand's export machine falters because the countries it exports to also falter, that's the fault of the NCPO, according to some that seems.

Mid-January we may expect new figures on the fourth quarter, then we'll know.

All sources converge on a GDP growth rate of not more than 1% in 2014, i.e.

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/2014-growth-now-1

compared to an intial forecast of 4.0 to 5.2%, made at the end of 2013 by different institutions

http://www.mfa.go.th/business/contents/files/eco-factsheet-20131220-100445-235435.pdf

There is no magic stick allowing to transform this figure in a 3% GDP growth. If corrections are made in january, it would no be more than +/- 0.3%.

I think the Dep PM has confused 0.3% with 3%

Insufficient data. Is it 3% compared to the same quarter last year, is it 3% compared with the previous quarter ? The last should be possible.

[Thai at Heart]

In one of these reports posted, this 4 to 5% growth next year relies on 7% export growth. This year export growth was 0% and 2 years ago 2.5%

Very optimistic numbers. Let's see

[candide]

Well, you are right, the way it is presented, it is not clear (as often in press releases in thailand, it seems).

However, GDP growth was 2.9% last year and should be around 1% this year. So 3% compared to last year's 4th quarter doesn't fit (should be in the 1% range +/- 0.x%), and 3% compared to previous quarter fits even less (should rather be around 0.2%/0.3%).

Anyway, whatever way you turn it, 1% GDP growth this year cannot be considered as a good achievement, with responsibility shared between Suthep and the Junta (not so much because the Junta badly manages the country, mainly because business interests don't like coups and juntas)

Edited December 28, 2014 by candide

[candide]

Here the most recent comment (Dec. 6th) of The Economist on Thaialnd's economic situation:

"This year it is likely to grow by only about 1%, far less than in 2013 (see chart). Consumer spending has recovered somewhat since the coup. But investment, tourism, exports and industrial output are all down."

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21635605-new-political-order-takes-shape-thailands-elites-vie-position-next