AirAsia flight QZ8501 from Indonesia to Singapore missing

[NeverSure]

Just a couple of points for those who seem convinced that this is another MH370-style disappearance:

- from my understanding, the pilot in this case didnt try to alter his heading - and he asked permission to alter the plane's altitude. The captain of MH370 simply changed course without warning, or at least that seems to be what they believe happened.

- while its speculative until they actually find the wreckage, they do seem to have a much better fix on the current location of the airframe than they did with MH370 - many of us will recall the early claims that it was somewhere in the South China Sea while most now believe it crashed thousands of kilometres from that part of the world.

- the 'hangar in Pakistan' theory seems to assume that an unnamed terrorist organisation will use MH370 in a future 9-11 style attack - I dont think Tom Clancy could have written a more fanciful scenario, but I guess many would have said the same in 2000 if you told them terrorists would target the Pentagon with a commercial aircraft.

While we're speculating, my money is on them finding wreckage within 48 hours.

The pilot asked to climb to 38,000 and was denied due to traffic. The pilot asked for a different heading and one minute later disappeared. That means they lost its transponders signal which talks back and forth to Center and reports its position, heading, speed, altitude and identity.

They have no idea where that plane is. They waited 50 minutes after they lost contact to report it and almost 1 1/2 hours to decide it was an emergency. The plane could fly 500 miles/800 kms in 50 minutes.

Now no one has heard the Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT) which goes off automatically, has a strong signal, and can be heard by any of many aircraft in the vicinity of it.

There is nothing yet.

Edited December 29, 2014 by NeverSure

[ignis]

Just a couple of points for those who seem convinced that this is another MH370-style disappearance:

- from my understanding, the pilot in this case didnt try to alter his heading - and he asked permission to alter the plane's altitude. The captain of MH370 simply changed course without warning, or at least that seems to be what they believe happened.

- while its speculative until they actually find the wreckage, they do seem to have a much better fix on the current location of the airframe than they did with MH370 - many of us will recall the early claims that it was somewhere in the South China Sea while most now believe it crashed thousands of kilometres from that part of the world.

- the 'hangar in Pakistan' theory seems to assume that an unnamed terrorist organisation will use MH370 in a future 9-11 style attack - I dont think Tom Clancy could have written a more fanciful scenario, but I guess many would have said the same in 2000 if you told them terrorists would target the Pentagon with a commercial aircraft.

While we're speculating, my money is on them finding wreckage within 48 hours.

The captain of MH370 simply changed course without warning, or at least that seems to be what they believe happened.

​Until they find it, it is still what they believe happened.. maybe that was not the plane at all, they cannot find it ? maybe as it is not there. also maybe did not change course at all ?

[sunshine51]

Aircraft missing without a trace is not a new phenomena.

Check this out...ensure your java is working...

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/map-missing-planes/

Lots in the 50's and 60's, era of analogue technology. But these days?

M...How about 2 in less than one year (2014)?

[sunshine51]

Latest rumour from a Brit correspondent...FWIW...

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/wreckage-of-flight-qz8501-rumoured-found-uk-reporter-tweets

The reporter, Tom Phillips works for the Telegraph...here's his tweet...

https://twitter.com/tomphillipsin/status/549417864986238976/photo/1

Edited December 29, 2014 by sunshine51

[MJP]

Aircraft missing without a trace is not a new phenomena.

Check this out...ensure your java is working...

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/map-missing-planes/

Lots in the 50's and 60's, era of analogue technology. But these days?

M...How about 2 in less than one year (2014)?

Well, this is it. I mean how in this day and age of satellite and wotnot digital technology. How does this happen?

[jpinx]

Rumors of found wreckage: Wreckage of Flight QZ8501 rumoured found, UK reporter tweets | Malaysia | Malay Mail Online

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/553569-air-asia-indonesia-lost-contact-surabaya-singapore-17.html#post8800525

[sunshine51]

Aircraft missing without a trace is not a new phenomena.

Check this out...ensure your java is working...

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/map-missing-planes/

Lots in the 50's and 60's, era of analogue technology. But these days?

M...How about 2 in less than one year (2014)?

Well, this is it. I mean how in this day and age of satellite and wotnot digital technology. How does this happen?

Quite possibly emergency location systems & lack thereof due to "money"...just my idea though.

Sad in this day & age innit?

[MJP]

^^It's plain odd. I mean we have trackers on company vans that can find them, even after they've been stolen and ended up in Romania or some such place.

Edited December 29, 2014 by MJP

[NeverSure]

Latest rumour from a Brit correspondent...FWIW...

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/wreckage-of-flight-qz8501-rumoured-found-uk-reporter-tweets

The reporter, Tom Phillips works for the Telegraph...here's his tweet...

https://twitter.com/tomphillipsin/status/549417864986238976/photo/1

had likely crashed in the Java Sea

Rumours wreckage found,

“Senior aviation official tells me ‘we hope we can hear good news’

[Qent]

Missing AirAsia jet likely "at bottom of sea"

The AirAsia plane that went missing with 162 people on board after takeoff from Indonesia is likely at the bottom of the sea, Indonesia's National Search and Rescue Agency chief said as aircraft and ships were dispatched to search for the jet.

"Based on the coordinates given to us and evaluation that the estimated crash position is in the sea, the hypothesis is the plane is at the bottom of the sea," Bambang Soelistyo told reporters on Monday.

More:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2014/12/missing-airasia-jet-2014122823345735544.html

[rakman]

RT @W7VOA: #Indonesia Transport Ministry spokesman: Last contact from #QZ8501 was pilot request for permission to change altitude due to bad weather.

If the plane was flying at, say, flight level 32 (32,000 feet) and center was reporting rough air at that altitude but smoother air at flight level 25, the pilot would request permission to descend to 25. Center would find a spot for him and give permission including perhaps a slight change in direction to avoid traffic.

Since the plane was heading north and 32,000 ft, any alternate altitude would be "even", ie. 24 or 26 thousand feet.

But, going to an alternate altitude for a thunderstorm isn't the best way to go. Flying around, avoiding the thunderstorm is the best way.

[Commerce]

Rumors of found wreckage: Wreckage of Flight QZ8501 rumoured found, UK reporter tweets | Malaysia | Malay Mail Online

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/553569-air-asia-indonesia-lost-contact-surabaya-singapore-17.html#post8800525

A rumour is nothing more than a rumour, until multi-confirmed and images shown - in this day and age, unfortunately.

Edited December 29, 2014 by Commerce

[sunshine51]

^^It's plain odd. I mean we have trackers on company vans that can find them, even after they've been stolen and ended up in Romania or some such place.

It is odd M...there are systems out there, supposedly, and they're sitting

on shelves due to a plethora of reasons...money, airworthiness certificates-

approvals, aircraft modifications etc...etc...I have read that to install these

systems on a fleet of aircraft & from the safety POV it really doesn't cost

that much even if in the millions of whatever currency one choses. I mean,

to me, I would gladly pay an extra charge on me ticket to assist an airline

to recoup the cost of said system even it the tocket cost me an extra

hundred bucks. At least if something happened & my flight went down

with no survivors me missus would eventually know what happened instead

of utter specuation concerning the fate of those aboard...ie...closure & all

that. Just seems that airlines don't wanna spend the money on these

systems but they love our money when we buy that ticket don't they.

[Qent]

Family of 10 misses ill-fated AirAsia flight

An Indonesian family of 10 said today that they had a miraculous escape when they arrived too late to catch AirAsia Flight QZ8501, which went missing shortly after take-off en route to Singapore.

Christianawati, 36, said the 10 of them, who included her family, her mother and her younger brother's family, were heading to Singapore to celebrate the New Year. The six adults and four children were originally booked on the 7.30 am flight but AirAsia moved them to Flight QZ8501 scheduled for two hours earlier.

"They emailed and called us on December 15 and 16 to inform us but we missed those calls," Christianawati said. "So we arrived at the airport to check in for the 7.30am flight but were told our flights had been rescheduled to 5.30am and we were late.

More:

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/family-of-10-misses-ill-fated-airasia-flight#sthash.JdhI4Ijd.dpuf

[Commerce]

Missing AirAsia jet likely "at bottom of sea"

The AirAsia plane that went missing with 162 people on board after takeoff from Indonesia is likely at the bottom of the sea, Indonesia's National Search and Rescue Agency chief said as aircraft and ships were dispatched to search for the jet.

"Based on the coordinates given to us and evaluation that the estimated crash position is in the sea, the hypothesis is the plane is at the bottom of the sea," Bambang Soelistyo told reporters on Monday.

More:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2014/12/missing-airasia-jet-2014122823345735544.html

If true, then please explain how the ULB was not transmitting. Battery disconnected??? That would be sabotage.

[rakman]

Simply put, the pilot should have turned back.

Easy to be general after the battle is over.

Imagine this. You're on a trip to Singapore. 3 quarters of an hour into the flight, the pilot decides to make 180 and go back to Surabaya. You look out of window... yes, it was a little shaky, but just a few clouds, <deleted>?

On landing, you'd raise hell over how dares the b*stard in cockpit ruin your holidays by turning around.

Airline would be flooded with complaints, maybe even lawsuits.

How many of these complaining passengers would think that pilot just saved their lives? Right. None.

.

Well, that has happened to me before on more than one occasion over four decades of flying, both due to weather, and even such things as unconfirmed warning lights.

No problem for me. I believe in following old maxims; An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and, Better safe than sorry.

Perhaps you have the personality type that raises hell, I don't. And there would be no lawsuits. The pilot has full authority to divert or return.

In September of 2007, I refused to board a One-Two-Go flight to Phuket because I checked the weather on my own. My new girlfriend and I were headed to her aunt's wedding. The pilot actually came out to the lounge and smiling, told me not to worry, everything was fine, please board now. I said no thanks. My GF was pretty upset with me.

For about an hour. Now she's my wife.

Nice call on that one-two go flight. As soon as I read the about the weather aspects of this

current missing flight, I thought of that one -two go flight that crashed while attempting to

land in bad weather. That accident was a sort of financial get home itis, as it would have cost

the airline a lot of money to divert to another airport .

A number of years ago I was boarding a one-two go flight from Bangkok to Chiang Mai with my girlfriend. A bus took us out to the clapped out 747 they were flying at that time. While waiting in

line to board , standing near one of the engines, I noticed while the turbine was spinning it sounded like someone threw a bucket of bolts inside it. I refused to board the plane, and took the bus back.

One -two go at first refused to refund my money. I then showed them I had a video of the engine making all the noise, and I would be more than happy to release it to the media. They instantly refunded my money..... I checked later that day to see if they plane made it to CM. It did.. :-)

But it pays to always look at a form of public transportation , and refuse to go if you feel something is not right....

apparently you've never been up close and personal with a high bypass turbofan jet engine. They make all sorts of racket windmilling at low speed. It is completely normal as the turbine blades are fairly loose in their mounting locations. Once the engine gets a few thousand rpms, the blades are locked in place and normal operation continues. Now if you saw some damaged fan blades like the photo, then I'd agree with you.

Edited December 29, 2014 by rakman

[NeverSure]

RT @W7VOA: #Indonesia Transport Ministry spokesman: Last contact from #QZ8501 was pilot request for permission to change altitude due to bad weather.

If the plane was flying at, say, flight level 32 (32,000 feet) and center was reporting rough air at that altitude but smoother air at flight level 25, the pilot would request permission to descend to 25. Center would find a spot for him and give permission including perhaps a slight change in direction to avoid traffic.

Since the plane was heading north and 32,000 ft, any alternate altitude would be "even", ie. 24 or 26 thousand feet.

But, going to an alternate altitude for a thunderstorm isn't the best way to go. Flying around, avoiding the thunderstorm is the best way.

You can get serious turbulence in clear air. If planes 4,000 feet above you are reporting smooth air, you ask to climb. This happens regularly that planes change altitude for smoother reported air.

[rakman]

The FAA issued Emergency Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2014-25-51 on 10 December 2014 which may be a contributory factor in this tragedy. It applies to Airbus A318, A319, A320 and A321 models and concerns, quote: "A blockage of two Angle of Attack probes during climb". It goes on to warn that, quote: "This condition, if not corrected, could result in loss of control of the aeroplane".

Edit: corrected erroneously quoted "A310" to "A319".

What is the experts' views of the above?

We know that the plane was flying at 32,000 feet, the pilot asked for and received permission to climb to 38,000 feet, and if I remember correctly I read that it was last seen at 36,000 feet.

Some recent posts have made reference to the angle of attack. What might cause angle of attack probes to get blocked, and what effect would this have on the plane?

super cooled water can form ice, as what happened to AF447 over the Atlantic in a thunderstorm.

The A320 is fly by wire with built in computer protections which means the pilot is guiding a computer controlled aircraft under normal circumstances. But if the sensors goes haywire, the computer program switches to "alternate law" which means the pilot is flying the airplane and the computer protections won't be active. This is what happened to AF447.

Not saying this is the reason for QZ8501, just answering the question.

Edited December 29, 2014 by rakman

[rakman]

Missing AirAsia jet likely "at bottom of sea"

The AirAsia plane that went missing with 162 people on board after takeoff from Indonesia is likely at the bottom of the sea, Indonesia's National Search and Rescue Agency chief said as aircraft and ships were dispatched to search for the jet.

"Based on the coordinates given to us and evaluation that the estimated crash position is in the sea, the hypothesis is the plane is at the bottom of the sea," Bambang Soelistyo told reporters on Monday.

More:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2014/12/missing-airasia-jet-2014122823345735544.html

If true, then please explain how the ULB was not transmitting. Battery disconnected??? That would be sabotage.

the SAR aircraft can't hear the ULB as it is an acoustical signal. A ship would have to 1) have a receiver capable of receiving the signal, be it a specific ULB receiver or sonar; 2) be near enough to hear it.

[Kooweerup]

Well my decision is final and never travel on a Malaysian owned aircraft

[rakman]

<quote>

Lots in the 50's and 60's, era of analogue technology. But these days?

M...How about 2 in less than one year (2014)?

Well, this is it. I mean how in this day and age of satellite and wotnot digital technology. How does this happen?

Sad in this day & age innit?

</quote>

Commercial aircraft are equipped with ELB for ground crashes and the CVR/FDR have ULB for water crashes. ELBs are usually picked up by satellites and aircraft in the area. ULBs have to be heard by ships with the proper receiver or hydrophones that can hear the proper frequency and be in range of the ULB. The ULB will continue to ping for 30 days.

[rakman]

<quote>

rakman? You're having a laugh, right?

Nice call on that one-two go flight. As soon as I read the about the weather aspects of this current missing flight, I thought of that one -two go flight that crashed while attempting to land in bad weather. That accident was a sort of financial get home itis, as it would have cost the airline a lot of money to divert to another airport .

A number of years ago I was boarding a one-two go flight from Bangkok to Chiang Mai with my girlfriend. A bus took us out to the clapped out 747 they were flying at that time. While waiting in line to board , standing near one of the engines, I noticed while the turbine was spinning it sounded like someone threw a bucket of bolts inside it. I refused to board the plane, and took the bus back.

One -two go at first refused to refund my money. I then showed them I had a video of the engine making all the noise, and I would be more than happy to release it to the media. They instantly refunded my money..... I checked later that day to see if they plane made it to CM. It did.. :-) But it pays to always look at a form of public transportation , and refuse to go if you feel something is not right....

Apparently you've never been up close and personal with a high bypass turbofan jet engine. They make all sorts of racket windmilling at low speed. It is completely normal as the turbine blades are fairly loose in their mounting locations. Once the engine gets a few thousand rpms, the blades are locked in place and normal operation continues. Now if you saw some damaged fan blades like the photo, then I'd agree with you.

To quote you: "They make all sorts of racket windmilling at low speed. It is completely normal as the turbine blades are fairly loose in their mounting locations. Once the engine gets a few thousand rpms, the blades are locked in place and normal operation continues."

I know it's nearly New Year celebrations, but lay off the posting when you're a bit boozed up. Please.

turbine blades are looose in their mountings.. ................ You should be on the stage!

</quote>

No, mechanically serious, check out these youtube videos:

RB211 windmilling:

Loose engine blades:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phludDUfakg

[khaosai]

EDIT: Spillchekker

Blimey.

Anyway, my point is we weren't in control of the aircraft and making split second decisions. Doesn't matter if you've been sitting in a tower for six or twelve years. You're no more qualified than I.

What we do have in common is the ability to promote our definition of hindsight. Like I said, easy to say.

.

If he turned back or diverted accordingly in a timely manner, he would not have been making "split second" decisions.

People on this forum complain when posters make claims without qualifying them up with evidence of background experience. I post mine, and I'm still criticized.

No doubt you have qualifications I don't have. But mine do indeed qualify me to fairly state, The pilot should have turned back.

The doppler radar in cockpit can see around 6 miles out. The aircraft is flying good 500 miles per hour. That makes it nearly 10 miles per minute. He had a 40 seconds warning.

And you can't change altitude or heading without approval from the tower. That takes a large chunk out of that as well.

So he could have diverted in timely manner, like 10 seconds earlier?

The weather radar on modern commercial airliners can look hundreds of miles ahead thus route planning based on weather can be achieved well in advance.

[EyesWideOpen]

<quote>

rakman? You're having a laugh, right?

Nice call on that one-two go flight. As soon as I read the about the weather aspects of this current missing flight, I thought of that one -two go flight that crashed while attempting to land in bad weather. That accident was a sort of financial get home itis, as it would have cost the airline a lot of money to divert to another airport .

A number of years ago I was boarding a one-two go flight from Bangkok to Chiang Mai with my girlfriend. A bus took us out to the clapped out 747 they were flying at that time. While waiting in line to board , standing near one of the engines, I noticed while the turbine was spinning it sounded like someone threw a bucket of bolts inside it. I refused to board the plane, and took the bus back.

One -two go at first refused to refund my money. I then showed them I had a video of the engine making all the noise, and I would be more than happy to release it to the media. They instantly refunded my money..... I checked later that day to see if they plane made it to CM. It did.. :-) But it pays to always look at a form of public transportation , and refuse to go if you feel something is not right....

Apparently you've never been up close and personal with a high bypass turbofan jet engine. They make all sorts of racket windmilling at low speed. It is completely normal as the turbine blades are fairly loose in their mounting locations. Once the engine gets a few thousand rpms, the blades are locked in place and normal operation continues. Now if you saw some damaged fan blades like the photo, then I'd agree with you.

To quote you: "They make all sorts of racket windmilling at low speed. It is completely normal as the turbine blades are fairly loose in their mounting locations. Once the engine gets a few thousand rpms, the blades are locked in place and normal operation continues."

I know it's nearly New Year celebrations, but lay off the posting when you're a bit boozed up. Please.

turbine blades are looose in their mountings.. ................ You should be on the stage!

</quote>

No, mechanically serious, check out these youtube videos:

RB211 windmilling:

Loose engine blades:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phludDUfakg

Haha yes that is exactly the sound it was making !! As I did not have my IPad handy for a quick check to see if that was normal, I just went with my gut instinct that a multi-million dollar engine should not be making noise as the turbine is spinning.... :-)

[krisb]

Aus news update...

No debris has been found. This is a rumour.

They do know the plane was climbing 180km/hr too slowly before radar contact was lost.

This would be pilot error.

[balo]

What is going on here? MH370 and QZ8501 suddenly disappears from the radar , never to be found again ?

I know it's early but we should get some signals from the black box or wreckage , we don't need another mystery.

[MrWorldwide]

Well my decision is final and never travel on a Malaysian owned aircraft

The folk at Indonesia AirAsia will be delighted to hear that.

On 1 December 2005, Awair changed its name to Indonesia AirAsia in line with the other AirAsia branded airlines in the region. AirAsia Berhad has a 49% share in the airline with Fersindo Nusaperkasa owning 51%. Indonesia's laws disallow majority foreign ownership on domestic civil aviation operations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia_AirAsia#As_Indonesia_AirAsia

Incidents and accidents[edit]

• On 28 December 2014, Indonesia AirAsia Flight 8501, an Airbus A320-216 registered PK-AXC with 155 passengers and 7 crew on board, lost contact with Jakarta air traffic control whilst en route from Surabaya, Indonesia, to Singapore.^[

Of course, if you're still not happy, there's always Garuda - its Indonesian for 'say your prayers' and has one of the worst safety records of any airline currently operating in the region.

[MrWorldwide]

What is going on here? MH370 and QZ8501 suddenly disappears from the radar , never to be found again ?

I know it's early but we should get some signals from the black box or wreckage , we don't need another mystery.

mate, isnt it a little early to be making the 'never to be found again' claim on the second aircraft ? I still believe - and its based on nothing more than gut instinct - that they have a much better chance of finding this plane (or whatever is left of it) than the remnants of the search team still vainly searching for MH370. Those poor buggers must get up in the morning and think 'fantastic - another day of staring at the ocean' .....

[NeverSure]

Aus news update...

No debris has been found. This is a rumour.

They do know the plane was climbing 180km/hr too slowly before radar contact was lost.

This would be pilot error.

Just a thought, but if he was climbing intentionally even though the request had just been denied, it would be expected that he would slow down. You simply have to trade some of your speed for altitude in the climb.

Again, I have no idea what he was doing but the above is true.

[jpinx]

Aus news update...

No debris has been found. This is a rumour.

They do know the plane was climbing 180km/hr too slowly before radar contact was lost.

This would be pilot error.

Just a thought, but if he was climbing intentionally even though the request had just been denied, it would be expected that he would slow down. You simply have to trade some of your speed for altitude in the climb.

Again, I have no idea what he was doing but the above is true.

You'd be better to ask these questions in pprune where some current pilots chat. All I can tell you is that yes - there is a different speed for climbing, but it depends on the circumstances and requirement. 150knots less than cruise does sound excessive, but I bow to any current airbus jocks who'd care to comment