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When the euro down to 30 thb is it time to go home?


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I'm not affected because my income is related to Baht and international trading in US$. But we are looking at risks with the US$ too investigating Yuan for some business.

This definitely makes Europe more competitive and relatively cheap compared to Asia.

Personally I would be cheaper off in Europe now with a family of 5, a mortgage and kids in international and bi-lingual schools. Europe with much lower mortgage rates, child support etc, tax returns and now for sure cheaper groceries too is becoming attractive. Looking at the price increases here and the development in Europe I predicted half a year ago that Europe would become cheap for Asians in 5 to 10 years, but it went much faster.

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I not need 3000€ every month only in high populated tourist area with high rent , for food minimum 1500 Bhat aday

1500 baht a day!!!??? i live on 80 baht a day and live " rather well " ( 80 baht is more than enough for food in this " third world land ".....)

F.J wub.png

80 per day and live rather well?? That is only 2400 per month. I guess if you own your home and grow your own food you could survive.

I spend 3 times that on rent alone!

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Forex markets are a peculiar beast. Eurozone has had massive trade surplus since Jan 2013 while USA and UK are once again making record trade deficits. This year eurozone is going to bypass China as the world's largest trade surplus holder. The exports out of eurozone are doing fantastic and it is not just Germany doing it. Even Italy has recently achieved trade surplus months. It is kind of funny neither USA or UK has achieved that for decades now, not even for a month.

Still, the consensus is at the moment that USA is supposedly somehow doing better. Well, that is mostly another talk down job from American and British traders and commenters. It is just mostly backed up with hyped up and massaged statistics. They just love to hate the euro no matter what.

It depends now how the Greek situation will be handled. They are just totally hopeless with their tax evasion and useless, corrupted governments. Kicking them out and leaving for the wolves would definitely skyrocket the euro back to 1.30-1.40. Probably somekind of compromise will be reached between outright default and cutting down the debt. The thing is nobody trusts them anymore, so many broken promises and half assed reforms making things even worse for the Greeks.

What most traders ignore is the fact eurozoners are quite happy actually with euro with clear majority wanting to keep it in almost every country. For Southern Europeans it brought a stable currency with much lower interest rates. Italy and Spain both hit double digit interest rates in the 90's and high inflation. Just like in Russia today, definitely not a good business environment today.

Edited by Timwin
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Don't complain to me, Euromanrolleyes.gif . While we Americans had crappy exchange rates for years, you Europeans were living the high life in Thailand. About time the Euro has taken a hit from it's lofty levels. Can't say I really sympathize. Anyways, the US$ has been crappy but there are still plenty of American expats around. Guess the ones with no money or lacking the will to stay will go home first.

The thai baht ,has always been linked with the dollar.It has never dropped a lot against the baht, like other currencies.If i was from USA..I would have always gone to the Philippines or cambodia.were the dollar is used all the time.

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Forex markets are a peculiar beast. Eurozone has had massive trade surplus since Jan 2013 while USA and UK are once again making record trade deficits. This year eurozone is going to bypass China as the world's largest trade surplus holder. The exports out of eurozone are doing fantastic and it is not just Germany doing it. Even Italy has recently achieved trade surplus months. It is kind of funny neither USA or UK has achieved that for decades now, not even for a month.

Still, the consensus is at the moment that USA is supposedly somehow doing better. Well, that is mostly another talk down job from American and British traders and commenters. It is just mostly backed up with hyped up and massaged statistics. They just love to hate the euro no matter what.

It depends now how the Greek situation will be handled. They are just totally hopeless with their tax evasion and useless, corrupted governments. Kicking them out and leaving for the wolves would definitely skyrocket the euro back to 1.30-1.40. Probably somekind of compromise will be reached between outright default and cutting down the debt. The thing is nobody trusts them anymore, so many broken promises and half assed reforms making things even worse for the Greeks.

What most traders ignore is the fact eurozoners are quite happy actually with euro with clear majority wanting to keep it in almost every country. For Southern Europeans it brought a stable currency with much lower interest rates. Italy and Spain both hit double digit interest rates in the 90's and high inflation. Just like in Russia today, definitely not a good business environment today.

Kicking them out and leaving for the wolves would definitely skyrocket the euro back to 1.30-1.40.

??? How do you know??? It can really be the opposite, Greece out and Euro lower.

eurozoners are quite happy actually with euro with clear majority wanting to keep it in almost every country

??? Oh really??? Actually many people is just tired of this sh*t euro currency and want their old currency back. EURO is not a currency, it’s a governing body and is killing us.

For Southern Europeans it brought a stable currency with much lower interest rates. Italy and Spain both hit double digit interest rates in the 90's and high inflation.

I pass on this, I don't have time to show you it means nothing.

Kicking them out? Who the <deleted>*k are you to speak like that? There's people and children dying there because of the stupid austerity imposed by the euro bureaucrats.

So, to sum up, you wrote loads of BS.

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The general consensus is that the Euro is going to parity (or lower) with the USD over the next few months, so if you can live at 32-33 baht to the Euro, then you're golden... Just consider what life would be like back in Yurrup once the Euro is devalued...

 

Bearish euro sentiment is at an all time high. Perfect

conditions for a rally. Fed will roll out QE4 before

the year end. We'll have four big central banks (Fed,

BoE, ECB and BoJ) printing to ward off the evil of

falling consumer prices. LOL!

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??? How do you know??? It can really be the opposite, Greece out and Euro lower.

eurozoners are quite happy actually with euro with clear majority wanting to keep it in almost every country

??? Oh really??? Actually many people is just tired of this sh*t euro currency and want their old currency back. EURO is not a currency, it’s a governing body and is killing us.

For Southern Europeans it brought a stable currency with much lower interest rates. Italy and Spain both hit double digit interest rates in the 90's and high inflation.

I pass on this, I don't have time to show you it means nothing.

Kicking them out? Who the <deleted>*k are you to speak like that? There's people and children dying there because of the stupid austerity imposed by the euro bureaucrats.

So, to sum up, you wrote loads of BS.

Greeks behave like little spoiled children with no responsilibity and want us to bail them out time after time! Maybe it is time to show them the door. Euro is not for bullshit people with bullshit governments. Good luck trying to convince foreign creditors to "trust' Greeks this time...

Edited by Timwin
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??? How do you know??? It can really be the opposite, Greece out and Euro lower.

eurozoners are quite happy actually with euro with clear majority wanting to keep it in almost every country

??? Oh really??? Actually many people is just tired of this sh*t euro currency and want their old currency back. EURO is not a currency, it’s a governing body and is killing us.

For Southern Europeans it brought a stable currency with much lower interest rates. Italy and Spain both hit double digit interest rates in the 90's and high inflation.

I pass on this, I don't have time to show you it means nothing.

Kicking them out? Who the <deleted>*k are you to speak like that? There's people and children dying there because of the stupid austerity imposed by the euro bureaucrats.

So, to sum up, you wrote loads of BS.

Greeks behave like little spoiled children with no responsilibity and want us to bail them out time after time! Maybe it is time to show them the door. Euro is not for bullshit people with bullshit governments. Good luck trying to convince foreign creditors to "trust' Greeks this time...

Rather simplistic & ignorant view & I especially liked the part of the "Euro is not for bulls**t people with bulls**t governments.

A big part of Greece's problem was joining the Euro in the 1st place & high military expenditures with their perceived threat with Turkey and the corruption that went along with those deals encouraged mainly from Germany.

Because Greece is tied to the Euro they can't devalue their currency to make their exports more attractive & also tied the the EU's rules & regulations.

Greece has only a population of around 11 million so once the government got into debt..there is almost no way out..It is said it's going to take 2 generations to get rid of the existing debt.

The EU governments are similar to most other western countries..they are for bailing out the bankers at the expense of it's people...

The EU in my opinion is like a dysfunctional family...maybe a good idea at the time of formation...but now will probably disintegrate over time to their own independent economies & currencies.

I expect Germany to leave the Euro to join the BRIC before Greece gets kicked out. wink.png

Edited by iphad
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Rather simplistic & ignorant view & I especially liked the part of the "Euro is not for bulls**t people with bulls**t governments.

A big part of Greece's problem was joining the Euro in the 1st place & high military expenditures with their perceived threat with Turkey and the corruption that went along with those deals encouraged mainly from Germany.

Because Greece is tied to the Euro they can't devalue their currency to make their exports more attractive & also tied the the EU's rules & regulations.

Greece has only a population of around 11 million so once the government got into debt..there is almost no way out..It is said it's going to take 2 generations to get rid of the existing debt.

The EU governments are similar to most other western countries..they are for bailing out the bankers at the expense of it's people...

The EU in my opinion is like a dysfunctional family...maybe a good idea at the time of formation...but now will probably disintegrate over time to their own independent economies & currencies.

Euro is already devaluing big time. Russia had to devalue even more, about 50 percent and it is not helping them at all. Inflation already 10 percent and their central bank interest rate is a killer, 17 percent. According to your logic Russia should be booming! It does not work like that. Russians got maybe one year left before the economy collapses unless the price of oil suddenly goes back to 100 dollars.

Greek government btw has their debts signed under English law in London and using euro as currency because nobody trust the Greek justice system. London or New York are pretty common 3rd parties in government bond deals with smaller countries, especially with crisis countries. Even if the Greeks issued their new, rapidly devaluing currency, they would be pretty soon unable to pay anything because the debts are in euros. If they defaulted, IMF black suits would be stepping in with emergency loans and de facto new government. Those boys and girls do not &lt;deleted&gt; around, they will get their money back. Even if it means really bad times for Greeks.

Plus the fact their new currency would bring total, high inflation chaos to Greece similar to Weimar Germany. It would worsen their problems big time. Greeks themselves would not trust their own currency at all and soon they would invest all their savings to gold, dollars, euros.

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Rather simplistic & ignorant view & I especially liked the part of the "Euro is not for bulls**t people with bulls**t governments.

A big part of Greece's problem was joining the Euro in the 1st place & high military expenditures with their perceived threat with Turkey and the corruption that went along with those deals encouraged mainly from Germany.

Because Greece is tied to the Euro they can't devalue their currency to make their exports more attractive & also tied the the EU's rules & regulations.

Greece has only a population of around 11 million so once the government got into debt..there is almost no way out..It is said it's going to take 2 generations to get rid of the existing debt.

The EU governments are similar to most other western countries..they are for bailing out the bankers at the expense of it's people...

The EU in my opinion is like a dysfunctional family...maybe a good idea at the time of formation...but now will probably disintegrate over time to their own independent economies & currencies.

Euro is already devaluing big time. Russia had to devalue even more, about 50 percent and it is not helping them at all. Inflation already 10 percent and their central bank interest rate is a killer, 17 percent. According to your logic Russia should be booming! It does not work like that. Russians got maybe one year left before the economy collapses unless the price of oil suddenly goes back to 100 dollars.

Greek government btw has their debts signed under English law in London and using euro as currency because nobody trust the Greek justice system. London or New York are pretty common 3rd parties in government bond deals with smaller countries, especially with crisis countries. Even if the Greeks issued their new, rapidly devaluing currency, they would be pretty soon unable to pay anything because the debts are in euros. If they defaulted, IMF black suits would be stepping in with emergency loans and de facto new government. Those boys and girls do not <deleted> around, they will get their money back. Even if it means really bad times for Greeks.

Plus the fact their new currency would bring total, high inflation chaos to Greece similar to Weimar Germany. It would worsen their problems big time. Greeks themselves would not trust their own currency at all and soon they would invest all their savings to gold, dollars, euros.

re. Greece... I never said Greece would leave the Euro...I stated it was a mistake that they joined..you were suggesting they should be kicked out...because they are bulls**t as a government & as a people.

I don't expect much will change within Greece even with a new anti austerity government projected to be elected...probably negotiations & Greece's debt maybe reduced or more Euro's injected.

re. Russia...you have been drinking too much kool-aid from the western press..Russia has foreign reserves * they have & continue to buy gold..their debt is manageable.

Even though oil prices have shrunk..& the Rouble to the US dollar has gone up...it's roughly the same exchange with roubles to oil as it was before.

Don't forget people in Russia spend roubles..not dollars..so anything made in Russia is the same cost..yes they are probably not buying imported goods from Europe or traveling outside the country like they did before but Russians are resilient people they know how to survive.

Russia became complacent with all the oil/gas revenues rolling in so it was easier to buy from the west..than from developing from within..now they have started on that process.

Russia is almost joined to the hip with China & making trade deals all over the east..building pipelines...developing trade..not with Europe though..but then Europe has no growth..it's with China & India.

Russia has already left the US petro dollar...so the exchange rate just means Russia can buy up cheap roubles...for their own economy with their overvalued US dollar reserves.

Anyone that underestimates Putin or Russia is a fool.

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You should have bought Swiss Francs. 1 CHF = 37 Baht.

Just like all those clever Forex professionals did............................... whoops most got it wrong though, and they're pros.

Hindsight - worth nothing per tonne.

As a Swiss I do not need Forex trade. The Swiss Franc went up 20% against € and 15% against US$, now 1 € = 1 CHF, 2 weeks ago 1 € = 1.20 CHF. Now 1 CHF = 37 Baht, 2 weeks ago 1 CHF = 32.50 Baht.

Well whoopee do for you and the cuckoo clocks. And you could predict all this of course, unlike the forex professionals rolleyes.gif

Edited by Baerboxer
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Those already in Thailand will hang on for some time as many have more or less cut ties with the motherland. The real effect will

be those considering the move to Thailand. That is where the numbers will nosedive. Between the few that do return home and the many

that don't come I believe this will have a measurable effect. One expat living year round is worth about 20 Chinese tourists who come

for 4-5 days. It will be interesting. I am not predicting gloom and doom but the big number of tourist and expats adding foreign currency

to the Thai economy will be softening. coffee1.gif

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The drop will stop somewhere, low euro doesnt benefit Thailand as it relies on Tourism income.

Seems like the long term plan is to rid TH of it's addiction to tourists, expats, and English teachers.

What exactly does Thailand have in its arsenal to control the value of the euro? Draghi is about to print 100,000,000,000 of them.

I suggest the action is his not Thailand's.

you forgot one digit as Draghi plans to "print" €1,100,000,000,000 wink.png

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Those already in Thailand will hang on for some time as many have more or less cut ties with the motherland. The real effect will

be those considering the move to Thailand. That is where the numbers will nosedive. Between the few that do return home and the many

that don't come I believe this will have a measurable effect. One expat living year round is worth about 20 Chinese tourists who come

for 4-5 days. It will be interesting. I am not predicting gloom and doom but the big number of tourist and expats adding foreign currency

to the Thai economy will be softening. coffee1.gif

It's become popular to think of the Chinese tourist as the original "cheap charlie, but:

Mrs chiang mai works for The Antanara Hotel and reports that around 80% of guests for the past three months have been Chinese who don't come on a package tour but instead pay between 10k and 15k for their accommodation. It's not uncommon for a well heeled Chinese guest to wander into the hotels boutique shop and drop between THB 100k and THB 200k on "stuff" that is then shipped back home. A quick walk around some of the other 5 stars in the area suggest the same is true at Four Season, Dhara Dhevi, Pillars and Shangri La.

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wow, Europ value dropped to low, a record?

Few years back it used to be 50 bht per euro

why did this happen?

and 1,16 usd per eur, crazy

by devaluing 'their' currency, they made their exports (usually best quality) cheaper ... anyone who thinks a German backed Euro is weaker than the US$ has been sucked in big time ... I am not saying America produces poor quality products, its just that greed saw them shift much of their manufacturing first across the border (Mexico) and then overseas, where they can pay a pittance and sell to the American public ... problem is, when you ship so many jobs off-shore, in a growing number of unemployed and or under-employed (with reduced incomes), less people can buy your stuff

Lenders have probably lent as much as they can lend to people whose disposable incomes have dropped and will continue to drop as energy costs and food stuffs rise and the government remains locked at the hip with corporations that use the American public monies and military to maintain their control ...

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Depends on how many euros you can bring in every

month, I would've thought. The Brits will be joining

this party soon enough albeit not of their own

volition.

I would be more worried if I was in AUD or CAN then USD or GBP.

GBP will fluctuate as it's an election year.

But the Euro is in terminal decline and the first domino will be the Greeks who will soon break the bail out terms agreed.

what makes you think the Americans are the 'smart' ones in this whole financial charade?

The Euro, like the Chinese Yuan, is deliberately devalued to maintain export sales ... the Yanks were crying foul because the Chinese were holding their value down ..

The American government is run by crooks who want to - continue - to play the world, but it ain't gunna happen ... those hangers on (like the politicians from the UK, Canada and Australia; yes I am a Aussie) are content with the scraps from the table ... and have already sold their countries out .. just like the 1%'s in the USA have sold their population out ...

The UK made money while exporting oil, that's all but gone, so how do they actually / factually make their money (they are net importers of food from around the world), could it be that many places are compliant with keeping the status quo ?

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wow, Europ value dropped to low, a record?

Few years back it used to be 50 bht per euro

why did this happen?

and 1,16 usd per eur, crazy

by devaluing 'their' currency, they made their exports (usually best quality) cheaper ... anyone who thinks a German backed Euro is weaker than the US$ has been sucked in big time ... I am not saying America produces poor quality products, its just that greed saw them shift much of their manufacturing first across the border (Mexico) and then overseas, where they can pay a pittance and sell to the American public ... problem is, when you ship so many jobs off-shore, in a growing number of unemployed and or under-employed (with reduced incomes), less people can buy your stuff

Lenders have probably lent as much as they can lend to people whose disposable incomes have dropped and will continue to drop as energy costs and food stuffs rise and the government remains locked at the hip with corporations that use the American public monies and military to maintain their control ...

You should get a better grip on the dynamics of globalisation and less reliance on underconsumptionism which comes out today as a weird echo of our old friend 'the national road to socialism'. And 'er, so energy costs are rising huh? Someone hasn't updated their website too recently and someone else should be a little more careful repeating stuff wholesale.

Edited by SheungWan
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Forex markets are a peculiar beast. Eurozone has had massive trade surplus since Jan 2013 while USA and UK are once again making record trade deficits. This year eurozone is going to bypass China as the world's largest trade surplus holder. The exports out of eurozone are doing fantastic and it is not just Germany doing it. Even Italy has recently achieved trade surplus months. It is kind of funny neither USA or UK has achieved that for decades now, not even for a month.

Still, the consensus is at the moment that USA is supposedly somehow doing better. Well, that is mostly another talk down job from American and British traders and commenters. It is just mostly backed up with hyped up and massaged statistics. They just love to hate the euro no matter what.

It depends now how the Greek situation will be handled. They are just totally hopeless with their tax evasion and useless, corrupted governments. Kicking them out and leaving for the wolves would definitely skyrocket the euro back to 1.30-1.40. Probably somekind of compromise will be reached between outright default and cutting down the debt. The thing is nobody trusts them anymore, so many broken promises and half assed reforms making things even worse for the Greeks.

What most traders ignore is the fact eurozoners are quite happy actually with euro with clear majority wanting to keep it in almost every country. For Southern Europeans it brought a stable currency with much lower interest rates. Italy and Spain both hit double digit interest rates in the 90's and high inflation. Just like in Russia today, definitely not a good business environment today.

as an aside, if the Germans are behind it all, they are smart, they haven't put their eggs in one basket; I haven't researched it, but am confident that every German marque car companies (and their suppliers) now manufacturer in the USA ...

but the UK and USA are master manipulators of smoke and mirrors, with their buying of each others bonds, that have an appearance of injections of external funds when those funds are just bits of worthless paper ... I'd be interested in learning how much non $US's hedge and fund managers (in the know) have ....

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Depends on how many euros you can bring in every

month, I would've thought. The Brits will be joining

this party soon enough albeit not of their own

volition.

I would be more worried if I was in AUD or CAN then USD or GBP.

GBP will fluctuate as it's an election year.

But the Euro is in terminal decline and the first domino will be the Greeks who will soon break the bail out terms agreed.

what makes you think the Americans are the 'smart' ones in this whole financial charade?

The Euro, like the Chinese Yuan, is deliberately devalued to maintain export sales ... the Yanks were crying foul because the Chinese were holding their value down ..

The American government is run by crooks who want to - continue - to play the world, but it ain't gunna happen ... those hangers on (like the politicians from the UK, Canada and Australia; yes I am a Aussie) are content with the scraps from the table ... and have already sold their countries out .. just like the 1%'s in the USA have sold their population out ...

The UK made money while exporting oil, that's all but gone, so how do they actually / factually make their money (they are net importers of food from around the world), could it be that many places are compliant with keeping the status quo ?

Why don't you do a little search on what the UK exports instead of asking silly rhetorical questions? The other comments aren't much better either.

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Don't complain to me, Euromanrolleyes.gif . While we Americans had crappy exchange rates for years, you Europeans were living the high life in Thailand. About time the Euro has taken a hit from it's lofty levels. Can't say I really sympathize. Anyways, the US$ has been crappy but there are still plenty of American expats around. Guess the ones with no money or lacking the will to stay will go home first.

The thai baht ,has always been linked with the dollar.It has never dropped a lot against the baht, like other currencies.If i was from USA..I would have always gone to the Philippines or cambodia.were the dollar is used all the time.

So Thomas, what are your thoughts on this attachment - by Thailand - with the US$ in the light of greater dealings (proposed rail, increased business dealings and growing tourists numbers) with China?

I read a book many years ago 'thick face, black heart' ... and I ponder the inevitability of China being the world power ... the 'sun never sets on the British Empire' the USSR, the Land of the Rising Sun and 'America, the world power' show the collapse of these 'modern day civilizations' ...

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Depends on how many euros you can bring in every

month, I would've thought. The Brits will be joining

this party soon enough albeit not of their own

volition.

I would be more worried if I was in AUD or CAN then USD or GBP.

GBP will fluctuate as it's an election year.

But the Euro is in terminal decline and the first domino will be the Greeks who will soon break the bail out terms agreed.

what makes you think the Americans are the 'smart' ones in this whole financial charade?

The Euro, like the Chinese Yuan, is deliberately devalued to maintain export sales ... the Yanks were crying foul because the Chinese were holding their value down ..

The American government is run by crooks who want to - continue - to play the world, but it ain't gunna happen ... those hangers on (like the politicians from the UK, Canada and Australia; yes I am a Aussie) are content with the scraps from the table ... and have already sold their countries out .. just like the 1%'s in the USA have sold their population out ...

The UK made money while exporting oil, that's all but gone, so how do they actually / factually make their money (they are net importers of food from around the world), could it be that many places are compliant with keeping the status quo ?

Why don't you do a little search on what the UK exports instead of asking silly rhetorical questions? The other comments aren't much better either.

one line, no content opinions ... like my eldest son says 'Dad, opinions are like arse-holes, everyone has got one, and they are usually full of shit' so unless you have something with content to back up your opinion, shut the &lt;deleted&gt; up (please) ... now go play with yourself some more ...

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Soon you will not worry about 30, you will worry about 10.......Do not worry my friends, our doors are open to anyone.....

It was a few years ago the media said America was doomed!!! Wait until they give up on the Euro.....then buy, buy, buy!!!!!!

clearly the trend is down.......but when it stops, nobody knows.......soon houses will be only pennies!!!!!! where is my gold????

Strange how Amerika keeps on forgetting that it lost the Vietnam War. From this massive loss of face has come most of the Amerikan-imposed misery on the rest of the world, 1975-2015.

And that misery includes the trillions of printed money of these last few years, making the 1% richer than all the other 99% combined.

huh....

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Soon you will not worry about 30, you will worry about 10.......Do not worry my friends, our doors are open to anyone.....

It was a few years ago the media said America was doomed!!! Wait until they give up on the Euro.....then buy, buy, buy!!!!!!

clearly the trend is down.......but when it stops, nobody knows.......soon houses will be only pennies!!!!!! where is my gold????

Strange how Amerika keeps on forgetting that it lost the Vietnam War. From this massive loss of face has come most of the Amerikan-imposed misery on the rest of the world, 1975-2015.

And that misery includes the trillions of printed money of these last few years, making the 1% richer than all the other 99% combined.

huh....

if you say 'huh' ... it is indicative of how disconnected you are with reality ... and most likely from the third group

(those that make it happen, those that let it happen and those who wonder what happened)

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