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Flogging a dead horse


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As a last resort, Mr. Draghi has now opened the flood-gates. This insane amount of liquidity will be parked at the banks, because banks are very conservative to lend out into an old world economy that is in a long term downward spiral. Equally, entrepreneurs are more than reluctant to take out loans to invest into a economy that is in a long term downward spiral.

Mr. Draghi showers Europe with liquidity that nobody needs nor wants. = Flogging a dead horse.

But there is hope. Doctors, to remedy this malaise have already been found among the neo-liberalist crowd. They call it "REFORMS". Goes like this: Since the wage level in Europe is just too high and therefore the global competitiveness is no longer given, wages must be cut down to the level of "Emerging Economies". Ergo: A car mechanic in Europe should not earn more than a car mechanic in eastern Timbuktu. That will restore international competitiveness. Voila !

The very fact, that the average middle-class family-men will have to conduct highway-robbery in his spare-time in order to feed their families will be of little concern for the Neo-Liberalist / Globalization crowd, since they will be observing this spectacle with amusement while cruising with their yacht's somewhere in the Caribbean.

The first slice of those "REFORMS" have already been implemented in Germany by a Social-Democrat Government under the honorable Herr Schroeder. Watch out: The next country to get a dose of REFORMS will be France.

BTW: In this scenario of "free and abundant money" (hardly paying any interest), where should your pension-fund / life-insurance company invest your retirement-money to generate the necessary yield to pay out your (promised) pension at some time in the future? Trading the futures markets? Pork-Bellies for example?

In my humble view, there are 2 things a relatively sane Farang should run away from: - A greedy Thai-Wife (plus clan) and a fast faltering part of the global economy, lead by politicians, that know very well that the "end of the rope" is reached. Of course, this is only of concern for those Farangs that still consider themselves as part of the currently still existing "European Middle Class". Enjoy while it lasts

Make a survey among your US-friends and relatives, how it feels having to work 2 jobs just to pay the bills. But after having landed the 3 rd job, it get's easier. Since there will be no more time to sleep, one doesn't need a place of residence anymore and that in turn will lower the monthly expenses.

Have a worry free weekend. Cheers.

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"Of course, this is only of concern for those Farangs that still consider themselves as part of the currently still existing "European Middle Class". Enjoy while it lasts."

But ... but ... but ... these farang are the same TV economic experts who derisively dismiss Thai (and Asian) businessmen and governments for their business practices and economic polices. If only they would follow the examples set by the vastly superior farangs who have created heaven on earth back in farang utopia.

I suppose this will lead to dwindling numbers of Euro-tourists, joining their Russian peers in staying home and/or trying to flog their Thai condos ... and increased competion for the good bits while dumpster diving. Or maybe Thailand will become even more of an economic refugee camp for impoverished farang ... heaven help us all.

I do genuinely feel sorry for anyone, whether American, European or Russian, whose retirement plans are screwed over by their inept leaders. I'm still trying to recover from the Bush-Cheney recession and living in fear of another Republican administration in 2016 and the havoc that will cause us all.

But maybe some of the "experts" who seem to think their fair skin entitles them to lecture others will think twice before dispensing their supposedly innately sourced financial wisdom ... but I doubt it.

Of course the above expert isn't lecturing anybody but merely muttering into his beer at the back of the bar.

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It is called collusion...it is a worldwide problem...governments printing gobs of fiat currency trying to make up for the lack of employment and commerce...Japan has printed more than they can ever justify...the US has stopped for the moment...and now Europe will take up the banner...the printing of money with no true economy to justify the printing...is a form of Ponzi scheme and will end badly with all fiat (paper) currencies in a serious down turn...as a worldwide recession...if not depression...takes its toll on the financial instruments... stocks, bonds, and followed by governments stealing whatever wealth they can from the public to stay afloat...

The poop could hit the fan as early as this year...

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What is not included is what has been the historic "fix" for fiscal imbalances. Printing paper may offset short or medium term local issues. Under the guise of multiple woes armed conflict is the final deemed mediator for the power brokers . The only variable is the scale of the geographical playing field. And now the w0rld is very small !

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EXCELLENT post.

And some surprisingly erudite replies.

Interestingly, the Australian Reserve Bank, is in the process of talking down the Aussie dollar.

In recent times, it was well over a dollar US.

So far, they've got it down to just below 80c US...and they're heading even lower.

( The previous 33 baht to A$, has drifted to 26. )

As the admirable Swissie suggests, this ain't gonna end painlessly.

Some years ago, when Asia was on the rise, some economists predicted this very thing.

WE--the Western economies--have effectively been forced out of the market .. we cannot compete against the likes of China et al.

Luckily for us, wages are rising inexoprably there, boosted by rising expectations and peasant uprisings..

Greedy buggars.

And Benroon was right on the money, the US has staggered--is staggering??--to it's feet.

Will the Republicans--who have some thoughts on "spending ourselves to death"--pull the appropriate levers??

We cannot live beyond our means forever.

Interesting times ahead.

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"Of course, this is only of concern for those Farangs that still consider themselves as part of the currently still existing "European Middle Class". Enjoy while it lasts."

But ... but ... but ... these farang are the same TV economic experts who derisively dismiss Thai (and Asian) businessmen and governments for their business practices and economic polices. If only they would follow the examples set by the vastly superior farangs who have created heaven on earth back in farang utopia.

I suppose this will lead to dwindling numbers of Euro-tourists, joining their Russian peers in staying home and/or trying to flog their Thai condos ... and increased competion for the good bits while dumpster diving. Or maybe Thailand will become even more of an economic refugee camp for impoverished farang ... heaven help us all.

I do genuinely feel sorry for anyone, whether American, European or Russian, whose retirement plans are screwed over by their inept leaders. I'm still trying to recover from the Bush-Cheney recession and living in fear of another Republican administration in 2016 and the havoc that will cause us all.

But maybe some of the "experts" who seem to think their fair skin entitles them to lecture others will think twice before dispensing their supposedly innately sourced financial wisdom ... but I doubt it.

Of course the above expert isn't lecturing anybody but merely muttering into his beer at the back of the bar.

but, as the Americans say, he is right on the money thumbsup.gif

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It is called collusion...it is a worldwide problem...governments printing gobs of fiat currency trying to make up for the lack of employment and commerce...Japan has printed more than they can ever justify...the US has stopped for the moment...and now Europe will take up the banner...the printing of money with no true economy to justify the printing...is a form of Ponzi scheme and will end badly with all fiat (paper) currencies in a serious down turn...as a worldwide recession...if not depression...takes its toll on the financial instruments... stocks, bonds, and followed by governments stealing whatever wealth they can from the public to stay afloat...

The poop could hit the fan as early as this year...

Yet it worked in the US but you kind of glossed over that !

I would argue that ..that yes QE appears to be working as the US dollar rises & rise of the stock market but it is an illusion of prosperity with constant market manipulations & lying government stats.

Wall St. is doing great..Main street not so great.

What the US has been very successful at is destroying countries militarily & economically.

One it it's main successes ( because the US petro dollar was/is the the world's reserve currency from after WW2 & once removed from the gold standard under Nixon it is a fiat currency based on trade in US dollars) was to counter the growing strong Euro that was replacing the dollar as the main word's currency.

The US petro dollar was fast losing value so the US government had to weaken the Euro..not destroy it because it needed trade & to subordinate Europe so the dollar could regain it's inflated strength.The Euro was backed by a solid European economy. The combined EU economy (28 member countries) was then and is still today the world’s strongest economy about US$18 1/2 trillion as compared to about 17 1/2 trillion in the US

Europe has become screwed...not by it's people..not by Greece,Italy Spain or France...but by the unelected leaders of the EU & the European banks that have become puppets to the US's foreign policy.

So as the previous poster said..it is a Ponzi scheme...doomed to fail..and along with it any country that has aligned with the US's economic policy of bankism..not capitalism!

Edited by iphad
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It is called collusion...it is a worldwide problem...governments printing gobs of fiat currency trying to make up for the lack of employment and commerce...Japan has printed more than they can ever justify...the US has stopped for the moment...and now Europe will take up the banner...the printing of money with no true economy to justify the printing...is a form of Ponzi scheme and will end badly with all fiat (paper) currencies in a serious down turn...as a worldwide recession...if not depression...takes its toll on the financial instruments... stocks, bonds, and followed by governments stealing whatever wealth they can from the public to stay afloat...

The poop could hit the fan as early as this year...

Yet it worked in the US but you kind of glossed over that !

I would argue that ..that yes QE appears to be working as the US dollar rises & rise of the stock market but it is an illusion of prosperity with constant market manipulations & lying government stats.

Wall St. is doing great..Main street not so great.

What the US has been very successful at is destroying countries militarily & economically.

One it it's main successes ( because the US petro dollar was/is the the world's reserve currency from after WW2 & once removed from the gold standard under Nixon it is a fiat currency based on trade in US dollars) was to counter the growing strong Euro that was replacing the dollar as the main word's currency.

The US petro dollar was fast losing value so the US government had to weaken the Euro..not destroy it because it needed trade & to subordinate Europe so the dollar could regain it's inflated strength.The Euro was backed by a solid European economy. The combined EU economy (28 member countries) was then and is still today the world’s strongest economy about US$18 1/2 trillion as compared to about 17 1/2 trillion in the US

Europe has become screwed...not by it's people..not by Greece,Italy Spain or France...but by the unelected leaders of the EU & the European banks that have become puppets to the US's foreign policy.

So as the previous poster said..it is a Ponzi scheme...doomed to fail..and along with it any country that has aligned with the US's economic policy of bankism..not capitalism!

LOL...so you're saying the EU problems, like everything else in the world has been orchestrated by those evil Americans? I don't know if you are truly that dumb, or have just been sucked too deeply into the world of the fringe websites you spend half your time reading. Im not American by the way, before you numb skulls say it...."you must be a yank"...I'm also not European.

Doesn't it occur to you conspiracy theory nut jobs that the US would love a strong Europe? And that Europe's problems stem from the stupidity of the way Europe was glued together, largely led by Germany and France, with zero consideration of fiscal and political differences? And to an extent it is exactly the excesses and dishonesty and inefficiencies of countries like Greece, France and Spain that have indeed dragged down the whole, finding the attractiveness of suddenly lower interest rates fatally irresistible, but only been permitted to do so by the willful blindness of the collective and their unelected and arrogant bureaucrats, and the gullibility of bond buyers. I hope Europe can recover, but it will take a lot of time and pain.

QE in Europe isn't some hyper inflationary threat designed to destroy its middle classes. It is the only monetary tool, as opposed to reform, they have to restore their shrinking balance sheet...in other words has the potential to fight deflation as opposed to cause much inflation. The end result in my view will obviously be an even weaker currency, which will help European industry, but unfortunately possibly even lower inflation, for reasons that will be beyond any reader of these forums, so i wont explain why.

In the mean time, if you happen to be European and bleating on about your weak currency, then you only have yourselves to blame if you didn't sell your EURs and buy USD etc. In the end i expect Europe will recover, it has some fantastic industry, good education systems and beautiful countries, certainly infinitely superior to anything in Thailand. What Europe needs is massive reform, i hope that will happen.

Edited by paddyjenkins
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It is called collusion...it is a worldwide problem...governments printing gobs of fiat currency trying to make up for the lack of employment and commerce...Japan has printed more than they can ever justify...the US has stopped for the moment...and now Europe will take up the banner...the printing of money with no true economy to justify the printing...is a form of Ponzi scheme and will end badly with all fiat (paper) currencies in a serious down turn...as a worldwide recession...if not depression...takes its toll on the financial instruments... stocks, bonds, and followed by governments stealing whatever wealth they can from the public to stay afloat...

The poop could hit the fan as early as this year...

Yet it worked in the US but you kind of glossed over that !

I would argue that ..that yes QE appears to be working as the US dollar rises & rise of the stock market but it is an illusion of prosperity with constant market manipulations & lying government stats.

Wall St. is doing great..Main street not so great.

What the US has been very successful at is destroying countries militarily & economically.

One it it's main successes ( because the US petro dollar was/is the the world's reserve currency from after WW2 & once removed from the gold standard under Nixon it is a fiat currency based on trade in US dollars) was to counter the growing strong Euro that was replacing the dollar as the main word's currency.

The US petro dollar was fast losing value so the US government had to weaken the Euro..not destroy it because it needed trade & to subordinate Europe so the dollar could regain it's inflated strength.The Euro was backed by a solid European economy. The combined EU economy (28 member countries) was then and is still today the world’s strongest economy about US$18 1/2 trillion as compared to about 17 1/2 trillion in the US

Europe has become screwed...not by it's people..not by Greece,Italy Spain or France...but by the unelected leaders of the EU & the European banks that have become puppets to the US's foreign policy.

So as the previous poster said..it is a Ponzi scheme...doomed to fail..and along with it any country that has aligned with the US's economic policy of bankism..not capitalism!

LOL...so you're saying the EU problems, like everything else in the world has been orchestrated by those evil Americans? I don't know if you are truly that dumb, or have just been sucked too deeply into the world of the fringe websites you spend half your time reading. Im not American by the way, before you numb skulls say it...."you must be a yank"...I'm also not European.

Doesn't it occur to you conspiracy theory nut jobs that the US would love a strong Europe? And that Europe's problems stem from the stupidity of the way Europe was glued together, largely led by Germany and France, with zero consideration of fiscal and political differences? And to an extent it is exactly the excesses and dishonesty and inefficiencies of countries like Greece, France and Spain that have indeed dragged down the whole, finding the attractiveness of suddenly lower interest rates fatally irresistible, but only been permitted to do so by the willful blindness of the collective and their unelected and arrogant bureaucrats, and the gullibility of bond buyers. I hope Europe can recover, but it will take a lot of time and pain.

QE in Europe isn't some hyper inflationary threat designed to destroy its middle classes. It is the only monetary tool, as opposed to reform, they have to restore their shrinking balance sheet...in other words has the potential to fight deflation as opposed to cause much inflation. The end result in my view will obviously be an even weaker currency, which will help European industry, but unfortunately possibly even lower inflation, for reasons that will be beyond any reader of these forums, so i wont explain why.

In the mean time, if you happen to be European and bleating on about your weak currency, then you only have yourselves to blame if you didn't sell your EURs and buy USD etc. In the end i expect Europe will recover, it has some fantastic industry, good education systems and beautiful countries, certainly infinitely superior to anything in Thailand. What Europe needs is massive reform, i hope that will happen.

I'm not European either...

but you basically are saying that deflation is the problem..but no one goes to a store & says.."damm apples went down in price today..they need to go higher..or my electricity price went down..I need higher electricity rates!"

The reality is ..prices are higher in the stores...it's the banks that need to cover their derivative shorts & bad loans so they plant in everyone's minds that deflation is causing the problems.

If you believe that QE is helping the US & it will help the EU..you are entitled to your opinion ..but I don't agree.

The EU had a strong economy...now it's following with QE of their own..it's not a tool to help the economy..it's a tool to con the working people to pay for a corrupt banking system that are "too big to fail".

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It is called collusion...it is a worldwide problem...governments printing gobs of fiat currency trying to make up for the lack of employment and commerce...Japan has printed more than they can ever justify...the US has stopped for the moment...and now Europe will take up the banner...the printing of money with no true economy to justify the printing...is a form of Ponzi scheme and will end badly with all fiat (paper) currencies in a serious down turn...as a worldwide recession...if not depression...takes its toll on the financial instruments... stocks, bonds, and followed by governments stealing whatever wealth they can from the public to stay afloat...

The poop could hit the fan as early as this year...

Yet it worked in the US but you kind of glossed over that !

I would argue that ..that yes QE appears to be working as the US dollar rises & rise of the stock market but it is an illusion of prosperity with constant market manipulations & lying government stats.

Wall St. is doing great..Main street not so great.

What the US has been very successful at is destroying countries militarily & economically.

One it it's main successes ( because the US petro dollar was/is the the world's reserve currency from after WW2 & once removed from the gold standard under Nixon it is a fiat currency based on trade in US dollars) was to counter the growing strong Euro that was replacing the dollar as the main word's currency.

The US petro dollar was fast losing value so the US government had to weaken the Euro..not destroy it because it needed trade & to subordinate Europe so the dollar could regain it's inflated strength.The Euro was backed by a solid European economy. The combined EU economy (28 member countries) was then and is still today the world’s strongest economy about US$18 1/2 trillion as compared to about 17 1/2 trillion in the US

Europe has become screwed...not by it's people..not by Greece,Italy Spain or France...but by the unelected leaders of the EU & the European banks that have become puppets to the US's foreign policy.

So as the previous poster said..it is a Ponzi scheme...doomed to fail..and along with it any country that has aligned with the US's economic policy of bankism..not capitalism!

LOL...so you're saying the EU problems, like everything else in the world has been orchestrated by those evil Americans? I don't know if you are truly that dumb, or have just been sucked too deeply into the world of the fringe websites you spend half your time reading. Im not American by the way, before you numb skulls say it...."you must be a yank"...I'm also not European.

Doesn't it occur to you conspiracy theory nut jobs that the US would love a strong Europe? And that Europe's problems stem from the stupidity of the way Europe was glued together, largely led by Germany and France, with zero consideration of fiscal and political differences? And to an extent it is exactly the excesses and dishonesty and inefficiencies of countries like Greece, France and Spain that have indeed dragged down the whole, finding the attractiveness of suddenly lower interest rates fatally irresistible, but only been permitted to do so by the willful blindness of the collective and their unelected and arrogant bureaucrats, and the gullibility of bond buyers. I hope Europe can recover, but it will take a lot of time and pain.

QE in Europe isn't some hyper inflationary threat designed to destroy its middle classes. It is the only monetary tool, as opposed to reform, they have to restore their shrinking balance sheet...in other words has the potential to fight deflation as opposed to cause much inflation. The end result in my view will obviously be an even weaker currency, which will help European industry, but unfortunately possibly even lower inflation, for reasons that will be beyond any reader of these forums, so i wont explain why.

In the mean time, if you happen to be European and bleating on about your weak currency, then you only have yourselves to blame if you didn't sell your EURs and buy USD etc. In the end i expect Europe will recover, it has some fantastic industry, good education systems and beautiful countries, certainly infinitely superior to anything in Thailand. What Europe needs is massive reform, i hope that will happen.

I'm not European either...

but you basically are saying that deflation is the problem..but no one goes to a store & says.."damm apples went down in price today..they need to go higher..or my electricity price went down..I need higher electricity rates!"

The reality is ..prices are higher in the stores...it's the banks that need to cover their derivative shorts & bad loans so they plant in everyone's minds that deflation is causing the problems.

If you believe that QE is helping the US & it will help the EU..you are entitled to your opinion ..but I don't agree.

The EU had a strong economy...now it's following with QE of their own..it's not a tool to help the economy..it's a tool to con the working people to pay for a corrupt banking system that are "too big to fail".

Nope, they are saying deflation is a risk not yet a reality, their target is 2% and its been falling below 1%. Its measured using a basket of goods and reported in the so called HICP index in Europe which isn't changed every five minutes to suit their interests, although of course the conspiracy theory nut jobs will insist otherwise, but they usually aren't capable of even understanding the most basic of analytic arguments. The problem of deflation is not about how you happen to feel when the price of an apple goes up or down. Its about wage levels and job creation as well as debt to GDP levels. And as for your bank bashing nonsense about derivatives....yawn yawn yawn.....they were recapitalized years ago and if anything will lose money due to new QE, not make it. The trouble with too many people is they are too lazy and stupid to really understand whats going on and so just stick to the same tedious platitudes of yesterday...banker bashing, evil derivatives, evil americans....smart people look at things in a cool, informed and rational manner and make financial decisions to help their own lives. The idiots stew in their rage and dumb conspiracy theories and get poorer. You choose your side my friend, makes no difference to me apart from in one way....the dumber the rest, the better for me.

Edited by paddyjenkins
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so the banks finally going to pay back the taxpayers money they stole during the bank crisis + interest because they needed to be saved as not 1 expert in the whole banking & financing saw the disaster comming ?

yaaaaawwwwn ....they all paid it back with interest a couple of years ago...the tax payer made a profit,...i wonder what tiny amount of tax you pay anyway on your paltry little salary you get for flipping burgers... Edited by paddyjenkins
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Rather than writing a lot of stuff how effective QE will be, I suggest to position yourself for the effects from it, so you can reap the benefits financially. So based on the experience from the FED, BoE and BoJ, QE will do the following in Europe.

1) weaken the Euro a lot more.

2) through a weaker Euro, inflation will go up a little bit as imports become more expensive

3) long interest rates will go down. Expect the 10yr yields to go to zero in Germany/France etc.

4) Equity markets will go up.

5) Property market will go up.

so to summarize, be short Euro, long European gov bonds, long European equities, long European property.

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Rather than writing a lot of stuff how effective QE will be, I suggest to position yourself for the effects from it, so you can reap the benefits financially. So based on the experience from the FED, BoE and BoJ, QE will do the following in Europe.

1) weaken the Euro a lot more.

2) through a weaker Euro, inflation will go up a little bit as imports become more expensive

3) long interest rates will go down. Expect the 10yr yields to go to zero in Germany/France etc.

4) Equity markets will go up.

5) Property market will go up.

so to summarize, be short Euro, long European gov bonds, long European equities, long European property.

You are not making me feeel good ! I am already on a retirement visa ! :)

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"Of course, this is only of concern for those Farangs that still consider themselves as part of the currently still existing "European Middle Class". Enjoy while it lasts."

But ... but ... but ... these farang are the same TV economic experts who derisively dismiss Thai (and Asian) businessmen and governments for their business practices and economic polices. If only they would follow the examples set by the vastly superior farangs who have created heaven on earth back in farang utopia.

I suppose this will lead to dwindling numbers of Euro-tourists, joining their Russian peers in staying home and/or trying to flog their Thai condos ... and increased competion for the good bits while dumpster diving. Or maybe Thailand will become even more of an economic refugee camp for impoverished farang ... heaven help us all.

I do genuinely feel sorry for anyone, whether American, European or Russian, whose retirement plans are screwed over by their inept leaders. I'm still trying to recover from the Bush-Cheney recession and living in fear of another Republican administration in 2016 and the havoc that will cause us all.

But maybe some of the "experts" who seem to think their fair skin entitles them to lecture others will think twice before dispensing their supposedly innately sourced financial wisdom ... but I doubt it.

Don't worry about the next president. The illegal homo muslim squatter in the WH will screw up the country that u won't recognise it in 2016

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so the banks finally going to pay back the taxpayers money they stole during the bank crisis + interest because they needed to be saved as not 1 expert in the whole banking & financing saw the disaster comming ?

yaaaaawwwwn ....they all paid it back with interest a couple of years ago...the tax payer made a profit,...i wonder what tiny amount of tax you pay anyway on your paltry little salary you get for flipping burgers...

50% of American workers do not pay any Federal Taxes.

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so the banks finally going to pay back the taxpayers money they stole during the bank crisis + interest because they needed to be saved as not 1 expert in the whole banking & financing saw the disaster comming ?

yaaaaawwwwn ....they all paid it back with interest a couple of years ago...the tax payer made a profit,...i wonder what tiny amount of tax you pay anyway on your paltry little salary you get for flipping burgers...

would you like to come visit my mansion

afterwards, we can drive to your shed and have a few beers

than we can compare bankbooks also if you like

lol

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"Of course, this is only of concern for those Farangs that still consider themselves as part of the currently still existing "European Middle Class". Enjoy while it lasts."

But ... but ... but ... these farang are the same TV economic experts who derisively dismiss Thai (and Asian) businessmen and governments for their business practices and economic polices. If only they would follow the examples set by the vastly superior farangs who have created heaven on earth back in farang utopia.

I suppose this will lead to dwindling numbers of Euro-tourists, joining their Russian peers in staying home and/or trying to flog their Thai condos ... and increased competion for the good bits while dumpster diving. Or maybe Thailand will become even more of an economic refugee camp for impoverished farang ... heaven help us all.

I do genuinely feel sorry for anyone, whether American, European or Russian, whose retirement plans are screwed over by their inept leaders. I'm still trying to recover from the Bush-Cheney recession and living in fear of another Republican administration in 2016 and the havoc that will cause us all.

But maybe some of the "experts" who seem to think their fair skin entitles them to lecture others will think twice before dispensing their supposedly innately sourced financial wisdom ... but I doubt it.

Don't worry about the next president. The illegal homo muslim squatter in the WH will screw up the country that u won't recognise it in 2016

Geez, that's pretty hateful. The US economy is one of the few bright spots in the world today, unemployment is low, the stock market is at all-time highs, US$ holding steady, etc. Yet the President is to blame....for something.

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