As China circles, US-Thai military friendship stumbles

[webfact]

As China circles, US-Thai military friendship stumbles

Bangkok, Thailand | AFP |

BANGKOK: -- Perturbed by Thailand's coup, the United States has scaled back a showpiece joint military exercise with its Southeast Asian ally, but analysts say that with China circling for influence, Washington will not push the kingdom's generals too far.

Famed for its jungle bonding sessions where US and Thai soldiers down snake blood, the annual "Cobra Gold" event is the crown jewel of Thailand's decades-long strategic alliance with the US.

But this year's edition, which started on Monday, has been slimmed down, as Washington recalibrates the level of military support it is willing to show for a country under junta rule -- and martial law -- since last May.

In tweets following the opening ceremony, US charge d'affaires W. Patrick Murphy said the exercise had been "modified" in response to a "challenging" period, urging a return to democracy so the "full potential of relations" could be restored.

For months following the junta's takeover -- which Washington strongly criticised at the time -- there were questions over whether Cobra Gold would even go ahead.

Some US Congress members suggested it should either be moved to northern Australia or cancelled altogether.

But while Washington wants to see one of its strongest Asian allies return to democratic rule, it has no desire to risk its relationship with Thailand, especially as the world's most powerful military pursues its much-vaunted "pivot" to Asia to challenge a rising China.

"This is an intimate security relationship which goes back decades and has been strengthened by multiple challenges," said Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based military expert with IHS-Jane's, citing conflict in Korea, Vietnam, Laos as well as Thailand's own battle with communist insurgency.

"You don't throw that away in a fit of pique."

- Cooling relationship -

Nonetheless the relationship between the two old allies is currently far from cordial.

Last month junta chief Prayut Chan-O-Cha reacted with barely concealed fury when a visiting senior US diplomat made guarded criticisms of the regime.

Bangkok-based envoy Murphy was summoned to explain his colleague's comments, while a joint Thai-US press conference last week to promote Cobra Gold was abruptly cancelled without explanation.

Gregory Poling, an expert on southeast Asian militaries at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says Thailand's coup has thrust the US onto the horns of a dilemma.

"The US government cannot endorse a military junta," he told AFP.

"But Thailand is also a treaty ally and one of the deepest and most abiding relationships the United States has in the region."

Reflecting that position, US military planners have refocused this year's exercise on humanitarian and disaster relief preparation, an apparent attempt to play down Cobra Gold's traditional -- and more prestigious -- "war games" reputation.

In the past the exercise has often included a live-fire amphibious assault which has also been scrapped, a spokeswoman at the US embassy told AFP.

It is "a noticeable difference from past versions," she said, adding that there would, however, still be some live-fire training.

- 'Masters of diplomacy' -

At the heart of Washington's careful balancing act lies China, which has publicly wooed Thailand since the coup and is looking for opportunities to push back against America's Asia pivot.

In December, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met Prayut to sign a multi-billion-dollar railway construction agreement in a visit widely interpreted as an endorsement by Beijing of Thailand's new military rulers.

And last week, China's defence minister held talks with Prayut in Bangkok to harden their military cooperation, in an expanding relationship which observers say could be used as a bargaining chip with Washington.

Chinese troops are also taking part in Cobra Gold, alongside more than 20 other nations, in only their second "boots on the ground" presence, as opposed to observer status.

Analysts say however despite US criticism and the diplomatic flirtation, there is little chance Bangkok would turn its back on its oldest ally and realign with Beijing.

"The Thais are past masters at the art of diplomacy and they have no desire, in my estimation, to jump into bed with the Chinese dragon," said Davis.

"We're talking about a rebalancing, an important, perhaps even a watershed recalibration of the relationship with the US. But the Thais have got much too much to lose by a total realignment towards China. It's inconceivable."

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2015-02-10

[billd766]

quote "

Gregory Poling, an expert on southeast Asian militaries at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says Thailand's coup has thrust the US onto the horns of a dilemma.

"The US government cannot endorse a military junta," he told AFP."

They must have missed what is happening in Egypt then, to say nothing of so many other countries that the USA has supported over the years.

All the USA had to do was to talk quietly to the current government, ask what is going on and offer their advice in a closed room.

Nobody would have been any the wiser and the spat between the two countries could have been dealt with.

[Tatsujin]

"The US government cannot endorse a military junta,"

... except for <insert current US strategic oil/political interest here>

[Equalizer]

quote "

Gregory Poling, an expert on southeast Asian militaries at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says Thailand's coup has thrust the US onto the horns of a dilemma.

"The US government cannot endorse a military junta," he told AFP."

They must have missed what is happening in Egypt then, to say nothing of so many other countries that the USA has supported over the years.

All the USA had to do was to talk quietly to the current government, ask what is going on and offer their advice in a closed room.

Nobody would have been any the wiser and the spat between the two countries could have been dealt with.

WHY???? What has that got to to with freedom of speech? That is cowardice.

[chainarong]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

"The US government cannot endorse a military junta,"

... except for <insert current US strategic oil/political interest here>

It certainly wouldn't be oil that's for sure.

[lucky11]

quote "

Gregory Poling, an expert on southeast Asian militaries at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says Thailand's coup has thrust the US onto the horns of a dilemma.

"The US government cannot endorse a military junta," he told AFP."

They must have missed what is happening in Egypt then, to say nothing of so many other countries that the USA has supported over the years.

All the USA had to do was to talk quietly to the current government, ask what is going on and offer their advice in a closed room.

Nobody would have been any the wiser and the spat between the two countries could have been dealt with.

You must know what the Yanks are like - they spout on about their displeasures in a 'we are the king pins' of everything and they act like children with a 'you had better do what we tell you to do otherwise we will take your ball away'!!!

Just ignore them and with a bit of luck they will go away.

Edited February 10, 2015 by lucky11

[baboon]

quote "

Gregory Poling, an expert on southeast Asian militaries at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says Thailand's coup has thrust the US onto the horns of a dilemma.

"The US government cannot endorse a military junta," he told AFP."

They must have missed what is happening in Egypt then, to say nothing of so many other countries that the USA has supported over the years.

All the USA had to do was to talk quietly to the current government, ask what is going on and offer their advice in a closed room.

Nobody would have been any the wiser and the spat between the two countries could have been dealt with.

Any 'spat' is entirely one sided and this time is not the fault of the United States.

I just don't get it - Japan voices concern and it is "Thanks for the input". America does the same and they are meddlesome imperialists. I mean, it isn't like Japan has been whiter than white throughout history?

[rijb]

quote "

Gregory Poling, an expert on southeast Asian militaries at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says Thailand's coup has thrust the US onto the horns of a dilemma.

"The US government cannot endorse a military junta," he told AFP."

They must have missed what is happening in Egypt then, to say nothing of so many other countries that the USA has supported over the years.

All the USA had to do was to talk quietly to the current government, ask what is going on and offer their advice in a closed room.

Nobody would have been any the wiser and the spat between the two countries could have been dealt with.

You must know what the Yanks are like - they spout on about their displeasures in a 'we are the king pins' of everything and they act like children with a 'you had better do what we tell you to do otherwise we will take your ball away'!!!

Just ignore them and with a bit of luck they will go away.

They won't go away. And neither will your inferiority complex.

[ratcatcher]

China United States

[swissie]

Nevermind what US or Chinese strategists think. Thailand goes with the "winners":

In the early stages of WW 2, they went with the Japanese, Then, just in time, they switched sides and joined the final "winners".

Now, realizing, that the current "World-Policeman" will be replaced by another "World-Policeman", especially in SE/Asia, of course they side with the new "Policeman".

10 years from now, "Cobra-Gold" will be replaced by "Cobra-Yellow".

Cheers.

[Dustdevil]

quote "

Gregory Poling, an expert on southeast Asian militaries at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says Thailand's coup has thrust the US onto the horns of a dilemma.

"The US government cannot endorse a military junta," he told AFP."

They must have missed what is happening in Egypt then, to say nothing of so many other countries that the USA has supported over the years.

All the USA had to do was to talk quietly to the current government, ask what is going on and offer their advice in a closed room.

Nobody would have been any the wiser and the spat between the two countries could have been dealt with.

You must know what the Yanks are like - they spout on about their displeasures in a 'we are the king pins' of everything and they act like children with a 'you had better do what we tell you to do otherwise we will take your ball away'!!!

Just ignore them and with a bit of luck they will go away.

No, ignore the Commonwealth lagerlouts and maybe they'll crawl back into their welfare quilt at home.

[pmarlowe]

google "confirmation bias" every thing you read or hear supports your point of view...so sad.

[lucky11]

quote "

Gregory Poling, an expert on southeast Asian militaries at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says Thailand's coup has thrust the US onto the horns of a dilemma.

"The US government cannot endorse a military junta," he told AFP."

They must have missed what is happening in Egypt then, to say nothing of so many other countries that the USA has supported over the years.

All the USA had to do was to talk quietly to the current government, ask what is going on and offer their advice in a closed room.

Nobody would have been any the wiser and the spat between the two countries could have been dealt with.

You must know what the Yanks are like - they spout on about their displeasures in a 'we are the king pins' of everything and they act like children with a 'you had better do what we tell you to do otherwise we will take your ball away'!!!

Just ignore them and with a bit of luck they will go away.

They won't go away. And neither will your inferiority complex.

You can accuse me of having a 'superiority complex' when it comes to Americans, plus, its the fact that they won't go away that IS the biggest problem.

Please tell me, what gives them the right to meddle in other countries affairs.

They are too blind to see the good that Prayuth has done in stopping a civil war breaking out and in providing normality and lasting stability to his nation when it was on the brink of imploding. America is too struck on this democracy rubbish and freedom of rights is only acceptable if it suits them (ask Snowden and Assange) about this!!

[Lee4Life]

Isn't it about time the press quits milking this cow?

[2fishin2]

Isn't it about time the press quits milking this cow?

Why are there several threads of the exact same issue? At any given time there might be 2 or 3 threads of same topic. Does someone check this stuff?

[metisdead]

Please use discretion in your references to the government. Phrases which can be considered as anti-coup will be removed. Referring to Thailand or the government as a dictatorship, military dictatorship or other such terms will be removed.

[ggt]

"The Thais are past masters at the art of diplomacy and they have no desire, in my estimation, to jump into bed with the Chinese dragon,"

It was the bed of the Chinese that produced the ancestors of the Thais...the US does not understand the dynamic at play here...it is like when you start finding fault with your wife of many years when a new girl shows interest in you...

Thailand is not worried about it's relationship with the US...it is more concerned about aligning it's future with the powerful Chinese dragon...

[NeilSA1]

quote "

Gregory Poling, an expert on southeast Asian militaries at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says Thailand's coup has thrust the US onto the horns of a dilemma.

"The US government cannot endorse a military junta," he told AFP."

They must have missed what is happening in Egypt then, to say nothing of so many other countries that the USA has supported over the years.

All the USA had to do was to talk quietly to the current government, ask what is going on and offer their advice in a closed room.

Nobody would have been any the wiser and the spat between the two countries could have been dealt with.

Any 'spat' is entirely one sided and this time is not the fault of the United States.

I just don't get it - Japan voices concern and it is "Thanks for the input". America does the same and they are meddlesome imperialists. I mean, it isn't like Japan has been whiter than white throughout history?

It was the way in which it was done.

[Thai at Heart]

"The Thais are past masters at the art of diplomacy and they have no desire, in my estimation, to jump into bed with the Chinese dragon," said Davis.

For a country that has ceded huge wedges of territory over the last couple of hundred years, signs documents, maps and treaties that it moans and bitches about like hell after the event, I would say that the Thai's are anything but masters of diplomacy.

Interpol arrest warrant anyone? Thais are past masters at airbrushing their diplomatic failures by claiming after the event that they never wanted something anyway...