Seeking asylum not yet an option for Yingluck

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NATION ANALYSIS
Seeking asylum not yet an option for Yingluck
NITIPOL KIRAVANICH
THE NATION

Despite the former Premier insisting she will stay to defend herself, getting refugee status might benefit her

BANGKOK: -- SEEKING political asylum might be the best solution for former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, though it might not be the smartest, as all eyes are trained on her at the moment.

Recently, reports emerged that she might be trying to seek political asylum - a rumour that has turned everybody's attention on her and become a topic of heated debate.

After Yingluck was impeached by National Legislative Assembly (NLA) last month for negligence of duty and failure to stop massive corruption in the rice-pledging scheme, her case is now with the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions. If the court finds her guilty, she could face a 10-year jail sentence, not to mention calls for her to personally foot the Bt600 billion or so lost in the scheme.

Judging by the severe penalties she stands to face if found guilty, clearly the best solution for her would be to flee the country and seek asylum elsewhere.

According to the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), the Universal Declaration of Human Rights stipulates that everybody has the right to seek and enjoy persecution-free political asylum or refugee status in a country. Also, the 1951 Refugee Convention says that a person who fears being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion can seek asylum.

Yingluck obviously is a perfect fit for the criteria.

However, the problem is that she will soon face indictment, and if she waits until the verdict comes out, she may not be given an escape route because her case is related to non-political crimes.

Fleeing 'out of question'

However, a source from Pheu Thai Party insisted that the former premier was willing to face the charges and defend herself.

The source said she wants to wait and see if justice will serve her. Also, the source pointed out that she would at least wait till the battle arrives in court first.

"She has to wait for the testimony inquiries or at least the questioning of the conflicting parties to begin first, including the process of asking for witnesses and presentation of evidence. It is only after these processes have been started that we will see a sign of her decision on whether or not to seek political asylum," the source said.

Former Democrat MP Nipit Intarasombat said people should wait and see if she will stay and defend herself or flee.

"If the former premier is seeking political asylum, then it could benefit her reputation more if she's a refugee rather than a fugitive," Nipit, who is also a legal expert, said.

Two options on offer

He went on to say that a political asylum can only be sought after the person leaves their country and files a request with the UNHCR.

Alternatively, if the person is unable to leave the country, then he or she can ask for political asylum with the embassy of the country they wish to flee to.

However, Nipit said, this second method is more difficult because the person in question may end up having to live in the embassy for an extended period without being able to leave.

Political observers, meanwhile, believe that Yingluck's every move is being closely watched and there is no guarantee that she will be allowed to travel abroad because she first needs to ask the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) for permission.

If she can't leave the country now, it means there's very little chance of her being able to seek political asylum.

Also, with the NCPO and |everybody else keeping a close |eye on her, making moves to flee may not be the smartest thing to do.

Who is eligible for asylum?

Who can get political asylum or refugee status under the Universal Declaration of Human Rights:

Everybody has the right to seek and enjoy persecution-free political asylum or refugee status in a country;

This right may not be invoked in the case of prosecutions that generally arise from non-political crimes.

Who can get political asylum or refugee status under the 1951 Refugee Convention?

 Someone who fears persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion;

 Someone who is outside their own country and is unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail themselves of the protection of that country;

 People who are not protected by their own country and are forced to flee.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Seeking-asylum-not-yet-an-option-for-Yingluck-30253979.html

-- The Nation 2015-02-13

[thesetat2013]

I seriously doubt that getting out of the country is an issue here. With her brothers planes and her money it would be easy to escape. She may be forced to do it empty handed though.

I still don't see why on the 19th that she is not arrested and made to pay a huge bond to maintain her freedom. She is clearly a flight risk to avoid prosecution. Her assets should be frozen as well if a guilty conviction can make her pay those losses.

[NeverSure]

I am confident that the US Embassy in Chiang Mai would grant her protection because she is being charged and next tried by a junta which the international community sees as illegitimate. Even the UN has had words about the junta as has the EU, the US, and others.

[Plutojames88]

The Americans have most likely already said ""just walk into our embassy"" given comments being made by UN and the American representative - and YS saying democracy is dead in Thailand .

Given American sensitivities to their Embassy being preached , were she to be given refuge there ( At the American embassy)

What would the Thais do?

A rationale leader would not dare transgress and arrest her on American Soil ( which Embassies are deemed to be)

However , we all know that this guy thinks differently, and doesn't like loosing face .

And the elites might back such a move.

But that would be the beginning of the end this Government were it to do so.

Sure it's hypothetical but very much now within the realm of possibilities.

Even a smart move on her part.

Passive but highly political

Legal and internationally supported.

Not to mention popular domestically .

It would raise the stakes to ""all in""

Thais marching into the American Embassy to arrest her would be horrendous for this general .

Lets see if this goes down.

I for one envision it could.

Certainly all sides are speculating it could

[PatOngo]

Looking like a choir girl, crying like a refugee....................(Cold Chisel)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-mboKihVVg#t=19

[NongKhaiKid]

The Americans have most likely already said ""just walk into our embassy"" given comments being made by UN and the American representative - and YS saying democracy is dead in Thailand .

Given American sensitivities to their Embassy being preached , were she to be given refuge there ( At the American embassy)

What would the Thais do?

A rationale leader would not dare transgress and arrest her on American Soil ( which Embassies are deemed to be)

However , we all know that this guy thinks differently, and doesn't like loosing face .

And the elites might back such a move.

But that would be the beginning of the end this Government were it to do so.

Sure it's hypothetical but very much now within the realm of possibilities.

Even a smart move on her part.

Passive but highly political

Legal and internationally supported.

Not to mention popular domestically .

It would raise the stakes to ""all in""

Thais marching into the American Embassy to arrest her would be horrendous for this general .

Lets see if this goes down.

I for one envision it could.

Certainly all sides are speculating it could

Would the US want a Julian Assange situation as in London where no one can go in to arrest but he cannot leave his safe haven as once outside his diplomatic protection ceases ?

He's been in the embassy for a couple of years i think and it's costing a fortune to have a police cordon around the premises 24/7/365.

Edited February 12, 2015 by NongKhaiKid

[Thai at Heart]

The Americans have most likely already said ""just walk into our embassy"" given comments being made by UN and the American representative - and YS saying democracy is dead in Thailand .

Given American sensitivities to their Embassy being preached , were she to be given refuge there ( At the American embassy)

What would the Thais do?

A rationale leader would not dare transgress and arrest her on American Soil ( which Embassies are deemed to be)

However , we all know that this guy thinks differently, and doesn't like loosing face .

And the elites might back such a move.

But that would be the beginning of the end this Government were it to do so.

Sure it's hypothetical but very much now within the realm of possibilities.

Even a smart move on her part.

Passive but highly political

Legal and internationally supported.

Not to mention popular domestically .

It would raise the stakes to ""all in""

Thais marching into the American Embassy to arrest her would be horrendous for this general .

Lets see if this goes down.

I for one envision it could.

Certainly all sides are speculating it could

Would the US want a Julian Assange situation as in London where no one can go in to arrest but he cannot leave his safe haven as once outside his diplomatic protection ceases ?

He's been in the embassy for a couple of years i think and it's costing a fortune to have a police cordon around the premises 24/7/365.

Exactly, and does anyone reckon she wants to be stuck in an embassy. All this trial will do is confirm that this stuff is largely political and so very biased.

[jaidam]

Keen historians will be reminded of the giant slap in the face to all honest citizens of the Philippines when the USA begged Ferdinand to retire with his stolen billions in Hawaii. Real win win that one was. The similarities between the Marcos clan and the Shinawatras are all too obvious - in fact both clans still have a few slack-jaws in their home provinces that are convinced they are true heros of the poor and of democracy. Hilarious!

While on the subject of dodgy asylum deals, I hear the US still hasn't gotten over the snub of Idi Amin chosing Saudi for his retirement.

Now with all this one step forward, test the water, retreat Shin style pussy-footing around it is clear that an asylum is being looked at, and it's clear which hypocritical bully of a nation is going to give it.

[Plutojames88]

The Chiangmai Mai embassy is a short helicopter ride to Burma .

Would the Thais try shooting it down if it had USA on the side ?

The Americans can do what they please.

[tbthailand]

For me, the best scenario desired by the junta has always been to force Yingluck to 'flee' and become a 'fugitive'.

I can't see them not prosecuting her and convicting her. There are too many thirsty for blood and 'revenge'.

I can't seem the junta putting her in prison, there are too many Thais who would view that as going toooo far - even non-supporters of the former PM...

Making her a 'fugitive' is their best option... That satisfies the thirst for blood of the military's yellow-fascist allies, allows the junta to keep her as a boogie-(wo)man, and avoids putting her in a Thai prison where she becomes a martyr on Thai soil.

Let's see how the junta plays it....

[NeverSure]

For me, the best scenario desired by the junta has always been to force Yingluck to 'flee' and become a 'fugitive'.

I can't see them not prosecuting her and convicting her. There are too many thirsty for blood and 'revenge'.

I can't seem the junta putting her in prison, there are too many Thais who would view that as going toooo far - even non-supporters of the former PM...

Making her a 'fugitive' is their best option... That satisfies the thirst for blood of the military's yellow-fascist allies, allows the junta to keep her as a boogie-(wo)man, and avoids putting her in a Thai prison where she becomes a martyr on Thai soil.

Let's see how the junta plays it....

This is what I've said all along. I can't see the junta putting her in prison. I would think the junta would want to be rid of her and the potential backlash.

The best solution for everyone is for her to flee. But then the junta hasn't shown a propensity to read world opinion or foresee the backlash from some of its moves so far.

[siampolee]

Strange principles here.

People are praising the Americans for possibly becoming involved in another sovereign states matters yet those same characters lambaste the junta for interference in their own country's( Thailand) domestic matters.

Strange idea of justice and democracy some folks hold.

With any luck we'll escape a re-run of the Vietnam debacle though.

[jaidam]

Strange principles here.

People are praising the Americans for possibly becoming involved in another sovereign states matters yet those same characters lambaste the junta for interference in their own country's( Thailand) domestic matters.

Strange idea of justice and democracy some folks hold.

With any luck we'll escape a re-run of the Vietnam debacle though.

If the US really gives Yingluck asylum, and a safe haven for which to launch attacks on Thailand from there should be retribution. I would suggest that next time there is a Victor Bout scenario, instead of handing him over to the US, he should be made Thai ambassador to the US instead. A clear sign, because foul language and a kick in the jimmies is unacceptable in diplomatic circles

[dinooz]

"Lets see how the Junta plays it"

I think its more like lets see how Yingluck plays it, The Prosecutors have shown their hand, it's now time for Yingluck to pass, sit or up the stakes. She could implicate others like her bro, stating it was his idea and he was the one liasing with the ministers and making decisions and she herself was completely out of the loop, which is the closest thing to the truth, but I am sure there are others laws regarding that so she really is caught between a rock and a hard place. I think they will be happy to air all the dirty goings on within the Scheme, her Party and Family, attempt to disgrace them enough that anyone with any common sense wouldn't dream of voting them back in . No jail time, hefty fines and maybe some financial compensation.

[Baerboxer]

I am confident that the US Embassy in Chiang Mai would grant her protection because she is being charged and next tried by a junta which the international community sees as illegitimate. Even the UN has had words about the junta as has the EU, the US, and others.

She's facing criminal charges. Hopefully the US Embassy team and State Department know full well this is all Shin hyperbole and will keep well clear of anything to do with this family. As multi billionaires, this family employs many lawyers to lobby, manipulate, and advise on legal issues. Hardly the case with most true refugees seeking asylum from genuine persecution.

The US did grant her criminal fugitive brother a visa, possibly due to the influence of his Carlyle Group and Wall Street pals. Hopefully, they won't stoop so low as to allow his sham former sister of a PM an escape route she most certainly doesn't deserve.

The OP sums it up. Yingluck will wait and see. If things are going her way she'll stay and defend herself. If not, well then she might go for asylum. The Shins and their lawyers seem to regard asylum as something they can chose, an escape, if it's not going well. Hardly what the intended use of political asylum.

Edited February 13, 2015 by Baerboxer

[Baerboxer]

For me, the best scenario desired by the junta has always been to force Yingluck to 'flee' and become a 'fugitive'.

I can't see them not prosecuting her and convicting her. There are too many thirsty for blood and 'revenge'.

I can't seem the junta putting her in prison, there are too many Thais who would view that as going toooo far - even non-supporters of the former PM...

Making her a 'fugitive' is their best option... That satisfies the thirst for blood of the military's yellow-fascist allies, allows the junta to keep her as a boogie-(wo)man, and avoids putting her in a Thai prison where she becomes a martyr on Thai soil.

Let's see how the junta plays it....

Why doesn't she stay, defend herself and actually answer the questions, providing facts and evidence?

She and her supporters, and legal team, repeatedly say she has done no wrong, there were no problems, all the deals were genuine, poor farmers benefited. All they have to do is show all their information and facts to support their statements.

That will make the NACC, OAG and the Junta by implication all look stupid.

Of course she may simply be lying again.

Nothing to do with political persecution - all to do with bringing someone who didn't do her job, that she vowed an oath to do, to justice. Failing not because of poor performance but because of desire, the desire of allowing her non elected criminal fugitive to run the country.

[Caveat Emptor]

Keen historians will be reminded of the giant slap in the face to all honest citizens of the Philippines when the USA begged Ferdinand to retire with his stolen billions in Hawaii. Real win win that one was. The similarities between the Marcos clan and the Shinawatras are all too obvious - in fact both clans still have a few slack-jaws in their home provinces that are convinced they are true heros of the poor and of democracy. Hilarious!

While on the subject of dodgy asylum deals, I hear the US still hasn't gotten over the snub of Idi Amin chosing Saudi for his retirement.

Now with all this one step forward, test the water, retreat Shin style pussy-footing around it is clear that an asylum is being looked at, and it's clear which hypocritical bully of a nation is going to give it.

Don't forget that at the 11th hours Ron Regan sent an envoy , Philip Habib, to Manila to ask Cory Aquino to allow Marcos to stay as a joint president but in name only and the US would make sure he didn't try to use any ' presidential '.power.

Aquino wasn't much of a president and relied heavily on her advisers so luckily she was urged not to agree as Marcos overseas could, and did, cause many problems through his paid protesters ( where have we heard that before ? ) but that would be nothing compared to Marcos remaining on Philippine soil would do.

I've often thought this is why Mr. T has never been brought back and now perhaps the same for YL.

[rubl]

I am confident that the US Embassy in Chiang Mai would grant her protection because she is being charged and next tried by a junta which the international community sees as illegitimate. Even the UN has had words about the junta as has the EU, the US, and others.

Why wait ?

Maybe justice will serve justice rather than Ms. Yingluck ?

"The source said she wants to wait and see if justice will serve her."

[rubl]

Would the US want a Julian Assange situation as in London where no one can go in to arrest but he cannot leave his safe haven as once outside his diplomatic protection ceases ?

He's been in the embassy for a couple of years i think and it's costing a fortune to have a police cordon around the premises 24/7/365.

Exactly, and does anyone reckon she wants to be stuck in an embassy. All this trial will do is confirm that this stuff is largely political and so very biased.

"The source said she wants to wait and see if justice will serve her."

Maybe they fear the trial will show justice serves justice rather than Ms. Yingluck. A self-financing RPPS losing 700 billion Baht, Ms. Yingluck on record stating to be in charge and therefore even putting her on trial is political and biassed ?

[rubl]

For me, the best scenario desired by the junta has always been to force Yingluck to 'flee' and become a 'fugitive'.

I can't see them not prosecuting her and convicting her. There are too many thirsty for blood and 'revenge'.

I can't seem the junta putting her in prison, there are too many Thais who would view that as going toooo far - even non-supporters of the former PM...

Making her a 'fugitive' is their best option... That satisfies the thirst for blood of the military's yellow-fascist allies, allows the junta to keep her as a boogie-(wo)man, and avoids putting her in a Thai prison where she becomes a martyr on Thai soil.

Let's see how the junta plays it....

'making her a fugitive' as in 'she had no choice'. Next we hear the junta escorted her to the US Embassy I guess.

"The source said she wants to wait and see if justice will serve her." Justice serves justice not particular people even when they're Amply Rich.

Anyway the stage seems set for yet another self-exile. I guess this one really having to go through an amnesty request even if that restricts one in activities (no political statements asThaksin found out). Self-exiles can still be put on Interpol lists when their crimes were non-political, like losing 700,000,000,000 Baht in a Ponzi scheme

[rubl]

For me, the best scenario desired by the junta has always been to force Yingluck to 'flee' and become a 'fugitive'.

I can't see them not prosecuting her and convicting her. There are too many thirsty for blood and 'revenge'.

I can't seem the junta putting her in prison, there are too many Thais who would view that as going toooo far - even non-supporters of the former PM...

Making her a 'fugitive' is their best option... That satisfies the thirst for blood of the military's yellow-fascist allies, allows the junta to keep her as a boogie-(wo)man, and avoids putting her in a Thai prison where she becomes a martyr on Thai soil.

Let's see how the junta plays it....

This is what I've said all along. I can't see the junta putting her in prison. I would think the junta would want to be rid of her and the potential backlash.

The best solution for everyone is for her to flee. But then the junta hasn't shown a propensity to read world opinion or foresee the backlash from some of its moves so far.

True, true

"The source said she wants to wait and see if justice will serve her."

[rickirs]

Yingluck seeking political asylum might be the best solution for the Junta. Does the Junta really need to put itself in the same perdicament as the Myanmar Junta who had to deal with popular opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi despite her isolation in house arrest, loss of civil liberties, and constitutional ban from national elections? I think the Junta will offer her an exit strategy and she will refuse.

[rubl]

Yingluck seeking political asylum might be the best solution for the Junta. Does the Junta really need to put itself in the same perdicament as the Myanmar Junta who had to deal with popular opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi despite her isolation in house arrest, loss of civil liberties, and constitutional ban from national elections? I think the Junta will offer her an exit strategy and she will refuse.

On the other hand seeking asylum might be the best solution for Ms. Yingluck. Avoiding just prosecution for a 700 billion Baht losing self-financing scheme she stated to be in charge of. Drag out the asylum procedure for years and while in it being able to finally standup to her big brother. After a few years just withdraw the asylum request and using her part of the Shinawatra fortune to settle down in a country she can buy a passport in.

What's the statute of limitation on this case ?

[outsider]

"failure to stop massive corruption in the rice-pledging scheme" - that may be YS' piece. But what about just 'failure to stop massive corruption'? Impossible that ALL ex-premiers are clean, and I don't care what colour-party they are from. How about them then? Or is this just about YS... hmm... democracy eh.

[NeverSure]

I'm not a supporter of Yingluck. I understand the issues with the rice scheme.

What I think some are missing is that in the eyes of many countries internationally the junta is illegal and illegitimate. How can an illegitimate, illegal junta try anyone and get international approval? It can't.

The UN, the EU, Japan and the US have all spoken against the junta. It has no credibility. So yes, seeking refuge from the junta would most likely be approved by any of a number of Western countries including the US.

Arguing about whether YS is guilty of something is of no use when those who seek to try her are unacceptable to the international community.

[ALLSEEINGEYE]

She is not a perfect fit for asylum as she is not being persecuted!!

She is being justly charge with the crimes she has committed!!!

She just happened to use her political position to commit those crimes against the Thai people.

[NeverSure]

She is not a perfect fit for asylum as she is not being persecuted!!

She is being justly charge with the crimes she has committed!!!

She just happened to use her political position to commit those crimes against the Thai people.

What's so hard to understand? It's not about whether she's guilty. It's about whether a junta which itself is considered illegal internationally has the right to try her or even limit her movements.

It's the junta that's on trial internationally for a military takeover, and it can't get any traction for legitimacy. The international community will stand against the junta in a matter like this.

[Thai at Heart]

Would the US want a Julian Assange situation as in London where no one can go in to arrest but he cannot leave his safe haven as once outside his diplomatic protection ceases ?

He's been in the embassy for a couple of years i think and it's costing a fortune to have a police cordon around the premises 24/7/365.

Exactly, and does anyone reckon she wants to be stuck in an embassy. All this trial will do is confirm that this stuff is largely political and so very biased.

"The source said she wants to wait and see if justice will serve her."

Maybe they fear the trial will show justice serves justice rather than Ms. Yingluck. A self-financing RPPS losing 700 billion Baht, Ms. Yingluck on record stating to be in charge and therefore even putting her on trial is political and biassed ?

We've been over this a thousand times.

Shouldn't they prove that the loss was criminal first before they chase her individually.

Proving this in a criminal court should take years to be deemed a true criminal investigation and due process. You reckon they have time?

[tbthailand]

Strange principles here.

People are praising the Americans for possibly becoming involved in another sovereign states matters yet those same characters lambaste the junta for interference in their own country's( Thailand) domestic matters.

Strange idea of justice and democracy some folks hold.

With any luck we'll escape a re-run of the Vietnam debacle though.

Strange idea of justice and democracy some folks hold.

strange sense of perspective some folks hold.

Please tell me that you were joking and that you really understand the difference between what you call...

the Americans for possibly becoming involved in another sovereign states matters

and

the junta for interference in their own country's( Thailand) domestic matters

[Torrens54]

I am confident that the US Embassy in Chiang Mai would grant her protection because she is being charged and next tried by a junta which the international community sees as illegitimate. Even the UN has had words about the junta as has the EU, the US, and others.

Obama would probably welcome her with open arms.