KResearch trims economic growth projection to 2.8%

BANGKOK, 24 Mar 2015, (NNT) - Kasikorn Research Center yesterday cut its nation's economic growth projection from 4% to 2.8%, thanks to the slow economic recovery rate and shrinking exports.

According to the center, the less-than-expected global economic growth and dropping commodity products prices are the main factors behind the sluggish performance in the export sector. The center anticipated exports to decline 3.9% growth in the first quarter.

Other reasons affecting the first quarter's economic growth included weak consumer spending, and slowdown in investment from the private sector.

However, KResearch predicted that tourism, the government’s economic stimulus policies, and low inflation would likely help the nation’s economy to recover sooner than expected.

The center predicted no growth for exports this year, down from 3.5 % projected earlier. Imports would also be down from 5% to 3.5 %, and inflation down to 0.5% from 1.5% predicted earlier.


-- NNT 2015-03-24

Someone will have to take the blame for this news report.

Didn't the general said ONLY good news can be published?

Probably Kresearch doesn't understand how flourishing everything is in Thailand at the moment.

...but I've just read another thread regarding new building work which said the economy was recovering............

I would also have thought exports would be affected by a strong baht. Whether or not it is artificial I do not know. However, it would be a major loss of face for a currency to be seen as weakening.

Things just don't seem to add up in this country.

maybe a bit of QE soon,why not, everyone else is weakening their currency

This is similar to last year. By the end it was 0.????

Isn't this just all white lies....?

A not unexpected change but still too high.

Economic predictions in Thailand always seem to change when the evidence is too insurmountable to deny favorable forecasts. And for that reason, the new predictions are always grudgingly reduced minimally so as not to upset the Government too greatly.

I had predicted in December 2014 a 2015Q1 rate of 2.3-2.5% based on actual performance of the government ifscal policies, exports, domestic consumption, tourism, agricultural prices, and businesses. In 2015 only government investment in Thailand's infrastructure could have made any significant difference in growth for 2015. And there the Government failed any significant follow through.

As late as March 20, 2015 the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee began to lower its growth projections for 2015Q1 in part due to "lower-than-expected government disbursement due to limitations in implementing investment projects," and "more delays to government spending than expected, especially in public investment."

"The junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes; but analysts say the cash has yet to appear." - Thailand cuts interest rates as economy stutters. Maybe because the cash has disappeared? Or maybe the military-led government is just too incompetent to sustain viable economic policies? Whatever the fault from the government, Prayut is unlikely to admit that his leadership to restore Thailand to democracy is no more successful than to restore Thailand's healthy economy.

A not unexpected change but still too high.

Economic predictions in Thailand always seem to change when the evidence is too insurmountable to deny favorable forecasts. And for that reason, the new predictions are always grudgingly reduced minimally so as not to upset the Government too greatly.

I had predicted in December 2014 a 2015Q1 rate of 2.3-2.5% based on actual performance of the government ifscal policies, exports, domestic consumption, tourism, agricultural prices, and businesses. In 2015 only government investment in Thailand's infrastructure could have made any significant difference in growth for 2015. And there the Government failed any significant follow through.

As late as March 20, 2015 the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee began to lower its growth projections for 2015Q1 in part due to "lower-than-expected government disbursement due to limitations in implementing investment projects," and "more delays to government spending than expected, especially in public investment."

"The junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes; but analysts say the cash has yet to appear." - Thailand cuts interest rates as economy stutters. Maybe because the cash has disappeared? Or maybe the military-led government is just too incompetent to sustain viable economic policies? Whatever the fault from the government, Prayut is unlikely to admit that his leadership to restore Thailand to democracy is no more successful than to restore Thailand's healthy economy.

when something is broken, it's just that, broken.