Survey: Will Thailand Regain its Lead as a Regional Economic Leader?

[Scott]

SURVEY: With Thailand experiencing what some consider its worst economic growth in 40 years, do you believe that Thailand will be able to recover or do you believe it has past its economic prime?

Please feel free to add your comments on the economic situation.

[NeverSure]

Move Over Thailand, the Philippines is Southeast Asia's Strong Man.

"With a greater focus on manufacturing, a young population and a president committed to stable growth, the Philippines is pulling ahead." LINK

I think all of Asia, not just Thailand is going to see a slowdown in manufacturing that will not be just temporary. Thailand's political situation over the decades doesn't encourage a lot of confidence and some manufacturers are quietly moving out. Thailand can't maintain it's current position with manufacturing already moving to The Phils and Vietnam and others.

I don't know about the EU in this regard, but the US is the #1 buyer of Thai exports with the EU close behind. The US is reshoring many manufacturing jobs from Asia in general due to increased taxes and regulation, more expensive labor and a huge cost of transportation. The numbers are completely different than they were just 25 years ago.

HERE'S some very enlightening reading about manufacturing moves now going in the reverse direction.

[NeverSure]

I neglected to mention Thailand's dodgy workforce. Regardless of opinion about work ethic, it has low unemployment. The Philippines for instance has a much higher birth rate and a lot more people in the demographic that wants to work in a factory or other significant job.

As mentioned in the Bloomberg article linked above, it is ripe for growth.

[asiamaster]

Contrary to what most farangs on this forum think I believe China should follow the China model. There are two programmes absolutely worth watching on CCTV if you wish to be well informed about and have a good understanding of what is going on in China and the massive impact this will have on the "Rest of the World" in this day and age of what many already call the "Asian Century". One is called "Dialogue" where anchor Yang Rui discusses geopolitical issues with guests from "both worlds" and the other is "Closer to China" with host R.L. Kuhn which is mostly about the "Chinese Model" and discusses if this could be a far better system than our failed western liberal democracy in particular in Asian countries.The only thing democracy in particular in Thailand has lead to is that they have embraced the worst of both worlds.

​Meritocracy is a far better system as long as it is based on Confucianism or Buddhism. Of course needs checks and balances but if it is based on traditional values it is so much easier to benefit all. Singapore is a shining example of how this can be achieved .

This is what General Prayud is trying to achieve. Most of the Thais understand what he trying to accomplish and are backing him. They also realise that so much damage has been done to the system and the economy over the last decades that this can not been done in a day. It will take at least 5 years.

In the short run -yes the Philippines will certainly outperform Thailand based on economic data. In the long run thy will lose out.

[i claudius]

I believe that Thailand just does not have "the work ethic" for to long the people have been told that they are the best in the world and tend to believe it ,but as wages rise the Thai people do not work harder to get it then companys will move away and they will be overtaken ,its a new world in the east andThailand is not keeping up with it .

such a shame because i love this place .

[recycler]

Thailand has many more problems than just political instability.

Just to name a few, education, language, aging population / low birth rate, labor productivity, ease of doing business, legal system, permits, corruption, xenophobia, business culture, high domestic prices.

The only reason Thailand has made it this far is that they have been given a free infrastructure including air and seaports, refineries and a start of the tourism and oil gas business by the US in the 60-70ties. All the Thais did was enjoying the ride, just like rowing downstream, looking around laughing and bragging about how good they are.

For example Vietnam has overtaken Thailand in the production of electronics in only 5 years! Other countries develop faster and so do their markets and production will move there, who would manufacture cars in Thailand for the Indonesian market? etc.

[geriatrickid]

I neglected to mention Thailand's dodgy workforce. Regardless of opinion about work ethic, it has low unemployment. The Philippines for instance has a much higher birth rate and a lot more people in the demographic that wants to work in a factory or other significant job.

As mentioned in the Bloomberg article linked above, it is ripe for growth.

Work in a factory as a significant job? In the Philippines? Please. The majority of factory jobs in the Philippines are low paying and in workplaces that do not meet even basic health and safety standards. One of the reasons why Thais eschew lower end factory jobs is that the Thai population moved up. They are economically better off than the Philippines and better educated. That's not saying much either. However, the constant harping of how the Philippines is going to kick Thailand's butt is fluff. They key is logistics and as bad as Thailand is, its infrastructure is much better than elsewhere in the region. If the planned investment from China goes through, Thailand will have a railway to service its commercial markets that will be the envy of the region. The Philippines has a volatile young population, rampant crime, and its own homegrown insurgency. Philippino youth don't want to work in factories either. Thailand's corruption is a major impediment to growth. Everyone knows that. The Philippines is just as bad, if not worse. I could go on, but SE Asia, excluding Singapore, is one big stinking mess. It will get worse before it gets better.

[Eric Loh]

Unlikely if we looking at a 3 years horizon. We are suffering from 10 years of political volatility which has left a serious dent in our competitiveness. It also left a inconsistent and non cohesive long term toll on businesses. Our productivity has not improved that negates our low employment. Export has stagnated and that is 70% of GDP. Tourism numbers may be up but we are not attracting premium travelers who are scared by the political events. So far, the current government rhetoric are not backed by consistent actions and investments.

To be economic leader, we need to move from current neutral ground to a GDP of more than 4%. Also need to move out of the middle income trap. We need to produce more high value products and that will mean a revamping of our education system and investment critieria. We also must rely less on foreign workers which will decline when their home countries begin to develop. Lastly we need political stability and an elected government for the next 10 years.

[sfokevin]

Also many large corporations are reticent to make any new commitments until the ruling elite here reshuffle the deck...

[DM07]

I'd rather wait for the next Dusit or NIDA- poll on this, telling me, that 98% of all Thais are soooo happy with the economic achievements of the current government!

[Lupatria]

Sometimes I think the ASEAN states only accepted Thailand as a member to avoid to be seen as an elitist alliance with no losers in their ranks. The recent economic developments in the Philippines, Vietnam and Myanmar clearly show where progress is in the making. However, every train needs a red light at the end as a warning signal for others.

[Alwyn]

Regain it's lead? That would mean at some stage Thailand was indeed the region's economic leader. When?

[Eric Loh]

Regain it's lead? That would mean at some stage Thailand was indeed the region's economic leader. When?

Yes indeed between year 2001-2006. Our reserve double, stock exchange outperformed regional, budget balance and fiscal surplus achieved, income inequality was the narrowest and debt to GDP declined from 51% to 40%. Thaksin was the PM then.

[gyrosman]

Contrary to what most farangs on this forum think I believe China should follow the China model. There are two programmes absolutely worth watching on CCTV if you wish to be well informed about and have a good understanding of what is going on in China and the massive impact this will have on the "Rest of the World" in this day and age of what many already call the "Asian Century". One is called "Dialogue" where anchor Yang Rui discusses geopolitical issues with guests from "both worlds" and the other is "Closer to China" with host R.L. Kuhn which is mostly about the "Chinese Model" and discusses if this could be a far better system than our failed western liberal democracy in particular in Asian countries.The only thing democracy in particular in Thailand has lead to is that they have embraced the worst of both worlds.

​Meritocracy is a far better system as long as it is based on Confucianism or Buddhism. Of course needs checks and balances but if it is based on traditional values it is so much easier to benefit all. Singapore is a shining example of how this can be achieved .

This is what General Prayud is trying to achieve. Most of the Thais understand what he trying to accomplish and are backing him. They also realise that so much damage has been done to the system and the economy over the last decades that this can not been done in a day. It will take at least 5 years.

In the short run -yes the Philippines will certainly outperform Thailand based on economic data. In the long run thy will lose out.

Oh yea, those quality products from China and chaining factory doors and don't forget the card board in the beef patties you enjoy in China or maybe the quality of their milk products impress me. Hey, let's put Wal-Marts here , who needs Lotus or Big "C" foreign influence proper corporations to provide products to the poor here.

How many times must even a poor Thai farmer buy cheap plastic products to try an improve their families quality of life. Huh! funny my parents still have cloths, electronic items, appliances they purchased decades ago from the western manufacturing world and still work. Show me something China has produced that can last for 20 years of use. You get what you pay for. Quality is not in the Chinese business model. How many cell phones and computers do you own from there and how many times have you replaced them.

You mention P.I. up and coming, sorry dude check India, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Who do you think when ASEAN is in full cycle will be investing in Thailand. Not China or don't forget Japan as a major player. China needs to fix itself before being a world Dragon leader.

China has vast territories, so why are they renting farm land in Africa , mineral development in disputed water areas for fishing and oil. How about the new airport in those disputed areas, whose the land developer adviser, Putin? Don't forget the new highway going through Pakistan, you think that is to benefit Pakistan.

When religion dictates economical policies that is were corruption takes root. Every fine the Jet the Monk flew out of Thailand in or cash. Have you not noticed the police, government, and teachers own large houses and the businesses, where and how were they able to get finanicing on their salaries affort this? Does the word " Nepotism " mean any thing to you.

Edited April 20, 2015 by gyrosman

[DrTuner]

Ain't the US love child anymore. Downwards trend.

[givenall]

I didn't know they were :-D

[metisdead]

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[doggie888888]

Contrary to what most farangs on this forum think I believe China should follow the China model. There are two programmes absolutely worth watching on CCTV if you wish to be well informed about and have a good understanding of what is going on in China and the massive impact this will have on the "Rest of the World" in this day and age of what many already call the "Asian Century". One is called "Dialogue" where anchor Yang Rui discusses geopolitical issues with guests from "both worlds" and the other is "Closer to China" with host R.L. Kuhn which is mostly about the "Chinese Model" and discusses if this could be a far better system than our failed western liberal democracy in particular in Asian countries.The only thing democracy in particular in Thailand has lead to is that they have embraced the worst of both worlds.

​Meritocracy is a far better system as long as it is based on Confucianism or Buddhism. Of course needs checks and balances but if it is based on traditional values it is so much easier to benefit all. Singapore is a shining example of how this can be achieved .

This is what General Prayud is trying to achieve. Most of the Thais understand what he trying to accomplish and are backing him. They also realise that so much damage has been done to the system and the economy over the last decades that this can not been done in a day. It will take at least 5 years.

In the short run -yes the Philippines will certainly outperform Thailand based on economic data. In the long run thy will lose out.

I fell over laughing when you mentioned meritocracy and Singapore and that the good general is trying to achieve that. It's as funny as his weekly Friday comedy hour.

[PaullyW]

The biggest structural, long-term problem that Thailand faces is a fairly obvious discomfort with the idea that the elite should make efforts to lift up the the rest of Thais. Nowhere is it more evident than the reluctance to give political power as well as the reluctance to properly educate the general Thai public.

You cannot have a strong nation without a strong middle class. Thailand's elite fail to understand this.

[Thaddeus]

Regain it's lead? That would mean at some stage Thailand was indeed the region's economic leader. When?

Yes indeed between year 2001-2006. Our reserve double, stock exchange outperformed regional, budget balance and fiscal surplus achieved, income inequality was the narrowest and debt to GDP declined from 51% to 40%. Thaksin was the PM then.

Thailand did well during that period despite that, not because of that.

[catweazle]

Thailand wasted every single chance for a positive change it ever got over the past 20 years. There are just too many Thai people out there who are nothing but spoiled and naughty kids in adult clothes, trying to make life work. It often reminds me of the times when I was a kid and we played "house".

Times are over where all the problems boiling under the surface can be wiped away with a superficial smile. The move to "cuddle" with China and Russia politically and telling the Yanks to mind their own business over being scolded for implementing dictatorship was one of the worst decisions of Thailands "leadership" in past decades. I believe the US of A will (sooner or later) find that it is time for action and "remove" the figure responsible for tumbling towards communism.

Interesting times ahead, indeed...

Edited April 21, 2015 by catweazle

[Johnny S]

Regain it's lead? That would mean at some stage Thailand was indeed the region's economic leader. When?

Thailand are/will be the sick man of Asia when the baht soon plunges

[hawker9000]

Regain it's lead? That would mean at some stage Thailand was indeed the region's economic leader. When?

Yes indeed between year 2001-2006. Our reserve double, stock exchange outperformed regional, budget balance and fiscal surplus achieved, income inequality was the narrowest and debt to GDP declined from 51% to 40%. Thaksin was the PM then.

"Thaksin was the PM then."

Lol. I just KNEW there had to be a punch line.

[elgordo38]

Move Over Thailand, the Philippines is Southeast Asia's Strong Man.

"With a greater focus on manufacturing, a young population and a president committed to stable growth, the Philippines is pulling ahead." LINK

I think all of Asia, not just Thailand is going to see a slowdown in manufacturing that will not be just temporary. Thailand's political situation over the decades doesn't encourage a lot of confidence and some manufacturers are quietly moving out. Thailand can't maintain it's current position with manufacturing already moving to The Phils and Vietnam and others.

I don't know about the EU in this regard, but the US is the #1 buyer of Thai exports with the EU close behind. The US is reshoring many manufacturing jobs from Asia in general due to increased taxes and regulation, more expensive labor and a huge cost of transportation. The numbers are completely different than they were just 25 years ago.

HERE'S some very enlightening reading about manufacturing moves now going in the reverse direction.

In 10 yrs. time there will be huge dark factories in the USA with 3D printers manned by Robots just pumping out everything. Asia and China will no longer have the benefit of cheap labor. We will have gone full circle again. Somebody will have to start a war again to rebalance the world. Hit the restart switch.

[ourmanflint]

Burma will be the one to watch. Geographically it is in the best location with quick and easy access to both India and China. I don't think it will take that long either, maybe within 10 years. Thailands problems will remain for more than that I would imagine.

[Alwyn]

Regain it's lead? That would mean at some stage Thailand was indeed the region's economic leader. When?

Yes indeed between year 2001-2006. Our reserve double, stock exchange outperformed regional, budget balance and fiscal surplus achieved, income inequality was the narrowest and debt to GDP declined from 51% to 40%. Thaksin was the PM then.

Fantastic! It was stronger than China and Indonesia? I just bet the yellow shirt apologists are eating their hearts out!!

[orange31]

Questions 3 and 4 are pretty much identical, meaning only 16.5% are optomistic about the future of Thailand. Don't forget that thing just around the cotner that we can't talk about, and the power struggle that will follow.

[Thai at Heart]

Considering the neighbours were communist havens and riven with civil wars, it wasn't a hard title to win was it.

[gyrosman]

Contrary to what most farangs on this forum think I believe China should follow the China model. There are two programmes absolutely worth watching on CCTV if you wish to be well informed about and have a good understanding of what is going on in China and the massive impact this will have on the "Rest of the World" in this day and age of what many already call the "Asian Century". One is called "Dialogue" where anchor Yang Rui discusses geopolitical issues with guests from "both worlds" and the other is "Closer to China" with host R.L. Kuhn which is mostly about the "Chinese Model" and discusses if this could be a far better system than our failed western liberal democracy in particular in Asian countries.The only thing democracy in particular in Thailand has lead to is that they have embraced the worst of both worlds.

​Meritocracy is a far better system as long as it is based on Confucianism or Buddhism. Of course needs checks and balances but if it is based on traditional values it is so much easier to benefit all. Singapore is a shining example of how this can be achieved .

This is what General Prayud is trying to achieve. Most of the Thais understand what he trying to accomplish and are backing him. They also realise that so much damage has been done to the system and the economy over the last decades that this can not been done in a day. It will take at least 5 years.

In the short run -yes the Philippines will certainly outperform Thailand based on economic data. In the long run thy will lose out.

i'm guessing your Thai with limited knowledge of international affairs.

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April 14, 2015 7:00 pm JST

'Great wall of sand'

Chinese reclaimed land worries US

HIROYUKI AKITA, Nikkei senior staff writer

A photo taken by the Philippine government in February 2014 shows China's reef reclamation and construction of a military base in the Spratly Islands.

TOKYO -- An influential U.S. Navy official made waves recently with an unusually open criticism of Beijing. "China is creating a great wall of sand, with dredges and bulldozers, over the course of months," he said.

U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Harry Harris' remarks highlight a growing sense of crisis among American military about Beijing's recent behavior in the South China Sea.

Harris was referring to land reclamation work China has been carrying out at a breakneck pace. The country is locked in territorial disputes with the Philippines and other countries in the area.

Edited for Fair Use

Edited April 25, 2015 by Scott
Edited for fair use

[Thai at Heart]

Contrary to what most farangs on this forum think I believe China should follow the China model. There are two programmes absolutely worth watching on CCTV if you wish to be well informed about and have a good understanding of what is going on in China and the massive impact this will have on the "Rest of the World" in this day and age of what many already call the "Asian Century". One is called "Dialogue" where anchor Yang Rui discusses geopolitical issues with guests from "both worlds" and the other is "Closer to China" with host R.L. Kuhn which is mostly about the "Chinese Model" and discusses if this could be a far better system than our failed western liberal democracy in particular in Asian countries.The only thing democracy in particular in Thailand has lead to is that they have embraced the worst of both worlds.

​Meritocracy is a far better system as long as it is based on Confucianism or Buddhism. Of course needs checks and balances but if it is based on traditional values it is so much easier to benefit all. Singapore is a shining example of how this can be achieved .

This is what General Prayud is trying to achieve. Most of the Thais understand what he trying to accomplish and are backing him. They also realise that so much damage has been done to the system and the economy over the last decades that this can not been done in a day. It will take at least 5 years.

In the short run -yes the Philippines will certainly outperform Thailand based on economic data. In the long run thy will lose out.

Thats great, but what must be understood is that there is no single China model, there are a successions of 5 year plans to deliver progress in China. And what must the achieve in order to perpetuate the CCCP? Wealth creation.

Once the wealth creating capability of China slows, then what to do? Who will initiate the next plan to move forward if the CCCP is discredited? How to appoint them? How to find them? An election surely....

Ahhhhh. As bad as western democracies are in terms of solidity of progress, they provide an inbuilt mechanism for the system to absorb a shock, regroip and move on. Communist systems do not have that.