Thai Finance Min: Export growth may contract this year

[webfact]

Min. of Finance: Export growth may contract this year

BANGKOK, 5 May 2015, (NNT) - The Ministry of Finance has admitted that Thailand’s export sector suffers from several factors and would likely contract this year, citing projections for gross domestic product of less than 3.7 percent this year.

The ministry revealed that the export sector recovered at a slower rate than it had previously expected. The ministry now forecasts the sector to contract in 2015.

It blamed the economic slowdown of China, Thailand’s major trading partner. China’s first quarter economic growth was at -14.4 percent with a 7 percent annual growth predicted. The figure shrank from the earlier predicted 7.2 percent.

The ministry said that international factors affecting the local export sector are European Union (EU)’s debt payment plan and this month’s UK general election.

Meanwhile, it said the local factors are problems surrounding Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated fishing and the downgrade of the Department of Civil Aviation. These negative factors are expected to cost Thailand at least 319 million dollars per year, inevitably suppressing the Kingdom’s economic growth.

-- NNT 2015-05-05

[trogers]

Those people in QE countries have less money. Most money are tied up in stocks, derivatives and hedge funds.

[Strangebrew]

Baby, it isn't going to contract the proper wording is implode, due to the fact that the baht has been over valued causing less interest in investment, and what does Thailand have to offer for export? Oh stale overpriced rice California grows rice of high quality and cheaper. Pirated DVD's? illegal in most countries, along with pirated software. Oh yes there are cars of which the lion share of profit goes to foreign concerns. I would say Dubai is looking for cheap hookers though. But cheer up there is a market for slaves though.

[rubl]

Politicians would be proud of this construction. What a way with words!

So, if growth contracts does that mean an actual shrink or a somewhat less positive adjustment

[trogers]

Baby, it isn't going to contract the proper wording is implode, due to the fact that the baht has been over valued causing less interest in investment, and what does Thailand have to offer for export? Oh stale overpriced rice California grows rice of high quality and cheaper. Pirated DVD's? illegal in most countries, along with pirated software. Oh yes there are cars of which the lion share of profit goes to foreign concerns. I would say Dubai is looking for cheap hookers though. But cheer up there is a market for slaves though.

Long grain rice is less starchy and thus has less sugar content than US rice.

[Suffinator]

The Ministry of Finance has admitted that Thailand’s export sector suffers from several factors and would likely contract this year, citing projections for gross domestic product of less than 3.7 percent this year.

Yeah and with a bit of luck it'll take a turn for the worse after the EU slaps a ban on the fishing industry. Hopefully on top of that other sanctions will be imposed over the on-going abuse of human rights and murder of people just to fuel the greed.

[mommysboy]

It is all about price! The baht is insanely strong and needs to devalue by about 20%.

[wowfactor10]

Quelle Surprise

[trogers]

It is all about price! The baht is insanely strong and needs to devalue by about 20%.

I remember Japan had this problem back in 1986. Same thing was recommended - devalue your Yen. But how does a country simply devalue it? By a stroke of a pen?

[emilymat]

I really can't see the connection between the UK General Election and Thai exports. Unless of course UK citizens are cowering in their houses pending the outcome and therefore are unable to go shopping for Thai high quality goods.

I suspect the Thai authorities have an 'index' of excuses and it was this one's turn.

[Srikcir]

It is all about price! The baht is insanely strong and needs to devalue by about 20%.

I remember Japan had this problem back in 1986. Same thing was recommended - devalue your Yen. But how does a country simply devalue it? By a stroke of a pen?

No. Not even with Article 44.

The country issues a lot of debt selling treasury bonds. Makes currency plentiful which devalues it against global markets. Pretty much the history of Greece for the last 20 years whose problem is that it keeps defaulting on its debts while is asks for more.

But bonds can generate a lot of capital that the government can use to stimulate the economy as did the US back into GDP growth. However, other than for the Yingluck rice pledge program, the Junta is relunctant to increase the nation's domestic debt. While it has been making investment deals with China and Japan, it is borrowing capital from those countries that does not add to Thailand's GDP.

[Srikcir]

The Junta government shouldn't be shy for taking some blame for Thailand's collapsing economy:

"THE RISKS to the economy from now until the end of the year are mostly internal factors such as the slower than expected recovery of the grassroots section of society and the possibility of further delays to the government's investment plans, economists warned....Other risk factors include the potential of rising political tension caused by the drafting of the new constitution and an increase of product prices." Chief executive officer of Asia Plus Group Holdings Securities, Kongkiat Opaswongkarn - The Nation 2015-04-24

"The chairman and chief executive officer of Asia Wealth Securities, Pichit Akrathit, said capital from government investment was still not there and investors were waiting to see clarity in the government's investment plans while household debt, lower crop prices and uncertainty over future income were hindering internal consumption." ditto

The Junta can't just Article 44 its way out of a bad economy.

[trainman34014]

As long as it's not their fault they are happy. Of course, we know better, but let them live in their own little Disneyland and lets see where it leads them.

[NongKhaiKid]

The Ministry of Finance has admitted that Thailand’s export sector suffers from several factors and would likely contract this year, citing projections for gross domestic product of less than 3.7 percent this year.

Yeah and with a bit of luck it'll take a turn for the worse after the EU slaps a ban on the fishing industry. Hopefully on top of that other sanctions will be imposed over the on-going abuse of human rights and murder of people just to fuel the greed.

Standby for an on cue announcement from TAT that .... oh everyone knows the rest.

[rubl]

The Junta government shouldn't be shy for taking some blame for Thailand's collapsing economy:

"THE RISKS to the economy from now until the end of the year are mostly internal factors such as the slower than expected recovery of the grassroots section of society and the possibility of further delays to the government's investment plans, economists warned....Other risk factors include the potential of rising political tension caused by the drafting of the new constitution and an increase of product prices." Chief executive officer of Asia Plus Group Holdings Securities, Kongkiat Opaswongkarn - The Nation 2015-04-24

"The chairman and chief executive officer of Asia Wealth Securities, Pichit Akrathit, said capital from government investment was still not there and investors were waiting to see clarity in the government's investment plans while household debt, lower crop prices and uncertainty over future income were hindering internal consumption." ditto

The Junta can't just Article 44 its way out of a bad economy.

Absolutely, monies still not there.

Mind you, after the hundreds of billions of Baht the previous government squandered away, it's not easy to find more. Same like when the Chuan government took over in 1998, austerity all over with the previous government having squandered away even the Foreign Reserves.

[phoenixdoglover]

In recent reporting of economic news, I have not seen any numbers regarding Thai government budget, actual spending, revenue, or debt. Are these not measured, not admitted, secreted away?

At any rate...how can one begin to suggest remedies for the Thai economy without some of these figures at hand?

Beam me up, Scotty!

[Prbkk]

Politicians would be proud of this construction. What a way with words!

So, if growth contracts does that mean an actual shrink or a somewhat less positive adjustment

Yes, the headline is misleading, unintentionally or otherwise. It is not a contraction in the growth rate but in the total of exports. That is really bad news for an export driven economy.

[Thai at Heart]

It is all about price! The baht is insanely strong and needs to devalue by about 20%.

I remember Japan had this problem back in 1986. Same thing was recommended - devalue your Yen. But how does a country simply devalue it? By a stroke of a pen?

No. Not even with Article 44.

The country issues a lot of debt selling treasury bonds. Makes currency plentiful which devalues it against global markets. Pretty much the history of Greece for the last 20 years whose problem is that it keeps defaulting on its debts while is asks for more.

But bonds can generate a lot of capital that the government can use to stimulate the economy as did the US back into GDP growth. However, other than for the Yingluck rice pledge program, the Junta is relunctant to increase the nation's domestic debt. While it has been making investment deals with China and Japan, it is borrowing capital from those countries that does not add to Thailand's GDP.

Does anyone know how much per month the US Treasury has been pumping into the markets???Because I heard 600bn USD in 2010 alone.

And people want the BOT to weaken the baht against this avalanche???

[trogers]

It is all about price! The baht is insanely strong and needs to devalue by about 20%.

I remember Japan had this problem back in 1986. Same thing was recommended - devalue your Yen. But how does a country simply devalue it? By a stroke of a pen?

No. Not even with Article 44.

The country issues a lot of debt selling treasury bonds. Makes currency plentiful which devalues it against global markets. Pretty much the history of Greece for the last 20 years whose problem is that it keeps defaulting on its debts while is asks for more.

But bonds can generate a lot of capital that the government can use to stimulate the economy as did the US back into GDP growth. However, other than for the Yingluck rice pledge program, the Junta is relunctant to increase the nation's domestic debt. While it has been making investment deals with China and Japan, it is borrowing capital from those countries that does not add to Thailand's GDP.

Does anyone know how much per month the US Treasury has been pumping into the markets???Because I heard 600bn USD in 2010 alone.

And people want the BOT to weaken the baht against this avalanche???

The irony is that the 600bn are not getting into the hands of the man on the street, but to banks to speculate in the financial market.

[Thai at Heart]

The irony is that the 600bn are not getting into the hands of the man on the street, but to banks to speculate in the financial market.

I am not sure if that is irony, but you may as well laugh rather than cry.