Most people support reforms before election: survey

[Lite Beer]

Most people support reforms before election: survey
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- An opinion survey by Rajabhat Suan Dusit University found that 75.11 per cent of 1,249 respondents from around the country agreed with the proposal to have the interim government extend its term two more years to carry out national reforms before holding the next election.

The remaining 24.89 per cent disagree with the proposal. The survey was carried out from Wednesday to Saturday.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Most-people-support-reforms-before-election-survey-30261796.html

-- The Nation 2015-06-07

[Plutojames88]

The second you give their propaganda polls any level of credibility , you have fallen victim of the usual military Rule agenda.

They have guns and rule by fear....who doesn't like it gets dealt with , including university kids.

[baboon]

A neat mathematical line drawn between an unwarranted assumption and a foregone conclusion...

[thesetat2013]

Did anyone not expect to see this? Given the news last week about P possibly staying put as long as the people want him there. This poll just clarifies that 75% would be OK if he stays?

Being that number is sooo hi. True or not it is safe to say that it gives the perfect support not to hold elections anytime near in the future. Being that the majority??? Has claimed as much with this poll. Heheee... So much for democracy hmmm...

[phoenixdoglover]

Here's a little mathematical exercise to test the credibility of this poll.

First, the basic stats:

Number of people surveyed: 1,249

Percent supporting delay: 75.11%

Percent opposing delay: 24.89%

The precision of the % reported allows us to calculate the exact number of people who answered each way:

Number supporting delay = 1249 x .7511 = 938.1239 people

Number opposing delay = 1249 x .2489 = 310.8761 people

This is odd. Partial people.

Let's look at it from the other side, and assume the number of respondents as follows:

Number supporting = 938 (maybe)

Number opposing = 311 (maybe)

Total polled = 1249

We can then calculate the percentages just as the poll takers did

Percent supporting = 938/1249 x 100 = 75.10%

Percent opposing = 311/1249 x 100 = 24.90%

Now I am guessing the poll takers just committed a common "rounding error", and then compounded the error by using incorrect figure in a subsequent calculation.

However, it gives one the impression of incompetence by the poll takers.

They should really just drop the pretense of precision, which has no place in poll results like this.

Something like: About 75% favored, and about 25% opposed.

Less precision = more credibility.

[Lite Beer]

Opposing poll results from Nida and Dusit polls

BANGKOK: -- Nida Poll shows that 54 percent of the people polled support the next prime minister to come from an elected legislator whereas Dusit Poll shows 76.94 percent want to see reforms before the country goes to the poll and that Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha should stay on to ensure reforms to be implemented.

The National Institute of Development Administration or Nida conducted opinion poll from 1,250 samples aged 18 and upward from across the country during June 3-4. Meanwhile, Dusit Poll of Rajabhat Suan Dusit University surveyed the opinions of 1,249 people during June 3-6 regarding the calls for reforms before there is an election.

Nida Poll also shows 40.88 percent of the respondents accept a non-elected prime minister provided that he has the support of two-thirds of the number of MPs in the parliament.

Nida Poll also shows the following results: 41.04 percent support one man one vote electoral system and the party list system mandated by the 2007 constitution; 60.48 percent support direct election of senators with two senators for each province.

Dusit Poll also shows the areas where reforms should be undertaken as priority: 74.22 percent for economic issue; 72.06 percent for education; 68.69 percent for political reform; 67.50 percent on corruption and 65.88 percent for bureaucratic reform.

More poll results from Dusit Poll are as follows: 75.11 percent agree reforms must be completed before there is a general election; 24.89 percent want election to be held as quick as possible as reforms will take time and they will never be completed in two years.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/opposing-poll-results-from-nida-and-dusit-polls

-- Thai PBS 2015-06-07

[DNPBC0]

The exact questions asked of respondents?

The sampling frames?

The sampling procedures?

The methods of data collection?

The non-response/refusal rates?

Without clear answers to these basic questions, the poll results are uninterpretable..

[gamini]

What ridiculous TV posts.Just because you don't like the results you try and ridicule them. Dusit poll is pretty reliable. and I am quite sure that 75% of Thais want reforms before elections.

[rametindallas]

If you don't like the message, shoot the messenger. (from the Thaksin play book)

[chainarong]

Well there you are the polls are already in , congratulations Prayut - O - Cha in anticipation , the people of Thailand salutes you, now all we have to do is await the proper verdict from the people.

[kennw]

The second you give their propaganda polls any level of credibility , you have fallen victim of the usual military Rule agenda.

They have guns and rule by fear....who doesn't like it gets dealt with , including university kids.

Dont know where you live but here in central BK I dont have a sense of fear or see any guns to be afraid of, However might be different for those who have reason to be afraid, like the forrest encroachers, people smugglers, gambling den operators, hospitals overcharging etc etc

[Homeropec]

What ridiculous TV posts.Just because you don't like the results you try and ridicule them. Dusit poll is pretty reliable. and I am quite sure that 75% of Thais want reforms before elections.

Yes, that is why the coup was make.

if the majority support reform before elections, so let's go to the referendum and let's invite international organization be the witness of the Thai national will.

Why the junta and other political extremist are delaying the referendum and national poll.... the answer is the because they have the actual data of the hundreds of surveys showing that people DO NOT LIKE THEM.

that is why Prayuth is asking to be protected from critics in and outside the country.... this is imposible to think if they really know that more than 75% of the population support them. ummmm 75% support... so far I know no international leader, beloved by their national counterparts had such amount of support. But here in Thailand... it is eassy to change data. but they know that they cannon manipulate poples will in an actual poll or referendum.. that is why -TAKE NOTE OF THIS- ELECTIONS WILL BE POSTPONE until they find the way to have the chance to win or win. And this of course will be done "for the sake of the country", to "protect national interest".... well this was also the reason for the coup... or you don't remember!

Edited June 8, 2015 by Homeropec

[TheAppletons]

Great editorial in a major Thai daily newspaper today regarding "reform"....since I can't quote from it, I'll paraphrase some salient points:

- Not only is reform not completed, the ruling military junta hasn't even defined it yet.

- The ruling military junta has not defined reform, hasn't outlined specific actions to get to reform, and has not indicated what it takes to achieve reform.

- The ruling military junta has made lottery ticket prices a major issue. If that's a reform issue then reform isn't very important.

[Srikcir]

If you don't like the message, shoot the messenger. (from the Thaksin play book)

I'm not sure I understand your "shoot the messenger" reference.

Isn't Gen. Prayut the messenger?

[NongKhaiKid]

Is it any wonder there's scepticism over poll results such as this since Los has a track record of 'right on cue 'favourable results, polls, statements etc.?

[Laughing Gravy]

1,249 out of 60 million is hardly a majority. Even Thai math' s would not equate to that.

these polls have I have said before belong in the toilet.

[h90]

Here's a little mathematical exercise to test the credibility of this poll.

First, the basic stats:

Number of people surveyed: 1,249

Percent supporting delay: 75.11%

Percent opposing delay: 24.89%

The precision of the % reported allows us to calculate the exact number of people who answered each way:

Number supporting delay = 1249 x .7511 = 938.1239 people

Number opposing delay = 1249 x .2489 = 310.8761 people

This is odd. Partial people.

Let's look at it from the other side, and assume the number of respondents as follows:

Number supporting = 938 (maybe)

Number opposing = 311 (maybe)

Total polled = 1249

We can then calculate the percentages just as the poll takers did

Percent supporting = 938/1249 x 100 = 75.10%

Percent opposing = 311/1249 x 100 = 24.90%

Now I am guessing the poll takers just committed a common "rounding error", and then compounded the error by using incorrect figure in a subsequent calculation.

However, it gives one the impression of incompetence by the poll takers.

They should really just drop the pretense of precision, which has no place in poll results like this.

Something like: About 75% favored, and about 25% opposed.

Less precision = more credibility.

It doesn't tell how many people told they don't care.

[h90]

1,249 out of 60 million is hardly a majority. Even Thai math' s would not equate to that.

these polls have I have said before belong in the toilet.

1249 is a good sample if they people are choosen smart, which is difficult with strong regional differences.

[smutcakes]

1,249 out of 60 million is hardly a majority. Even Thai math' s would not equate to that.

these polls have I have said before belong in the toilet.

1249 is a good sample if they people are choosen smart, which is difficult with strong regional differences.

Well if you are representing the smartness of the south then........

I generally cannot work out whether your replies are serious, tongue in cheek or just humming half the time.

[chickenslegs]

Here's a little mathematical exercise to test the credibility of this poll.

First, the basic stats:

Number of people surveyed: 1,249

Percent supporting delay: 75.11%

Percent opposing delay: 24.89%

The precision of the % reported allows us to calculate the exact number of people who answered each way:

Number supporting delay = 1249 x .7511 = 938.1239 people

Number opposing delay = 1249 x .2489 = 310.8761 people

This is odd. Partial people.

Let's look at it from the other side, and assume the number of respondents as follows:

Number supporting = 938 (maybe)

Number opposing = 311 (maybe)

Total polled = 1249

We can then calculate the percentages just as the poll takers did

Percent supporting = 938/1249 x 100 = 75.10%

Percent opposing = 311/1249 x 100 = 24.90%

Now I am guessing the poll takers just committed a common "rounding error", and then compounded the error by using incorrect figure in a subsequent calculation.

However, it gives one the impression of incompetence by the poll takers.

They should really just drop the pretense of precision, which has no place in poll results like this.

Something like: About 75% favored, and about 25% opposed.

Less precision = more credibility.

It doesn't tell how many people told they don't care.

Percent supporting delay: 75.11%

Percent opposing delay: 24.89%

Total - 100%

So it appears that the number of people who said they don't care is zero.

Edited June 8, 2015 by chickenslegs

[ddavidovsky]

But not to reform the elections.

[dageurreotype]

What ridiculous TV posts.Just because you don't like the results you try and ridicule them. Dusit poll is pretty reliable. and I am quite sure that 75% of Thais want reforms before elections.

They may want them but so far haven't had them and this line can be strung out for the truly credulous. This is just a delaying tactic for further entrenchment. If that were possible. Name ONE 'reform' to date. I dare you.

Edited June 8, 2015 by dageurreotype

[Acharn]

What ridiculous TV posts.Just because you don't like the results you try and ridicule them. Dusit poll is pretty reliable. and I am quite sure that 75% of Thais want reforms before elections.

I'm not so sure, but even given that, is that really the question asked? I got the idea from the story the question was something like, "If reforms are not completed in time, should Prime Minister General Prayuth remain as Prime Minister for another two years in order to complete the reforms before elections are held?" What reforms, anyway? Have the drafting committee announced concrete proposals? Do a lot of people consider these concrete proposals unsatisfactory? I'm a farang here on a retirement visa, I don't have a dog in this fight, but I find myself wondering.

[Acharn]

What ridiculous TV posts.Just because you don't like the results you try and ridicule them. Dusit poll is pretty reliable. and I am quite sure that 75% of Thais want reforms before elections.

Yes, that is why the coup was make.

if the majority support reform before elections, so let's go to the referendum and let's invite international organization be the witness of the Thai national will.

Why the junta and other political extremist are delaying the referendum and national poll.... the answer is the because they have the actual data of the hundreds of surveys showing that people DO NOT LIKE THEM.

that is why Prayuth is asking to be protected from critics in and outside the country.... this is imposible to think if they really know that more than 75% of the population support them. ummmm 75% support... so far I know no international leader, beloved by their national counterparts had such amount of support. But here in Thailand... it is eassy to change data. but they know that they cannon manipulate poples will in an actual poll or referendum.. that is why -TAKE NOTE OF THIS- ELECTIONS WILL BE POSTPONE until they find the way to have the chance to win or win. And this of course will be done "for the sake of the country", to "protect national interest".... well this was also the reason for the coup... or you don't remember!

My impression at the time was that the coup was considered necessary because the elite (i.e., the supporters of Suthep and the activist monk, even though many are from lower social classes) wanted "reforms" to prevent most of the people from voting, and most of the people did not want "reforms" which would prevent them from voting or their votes being counted. If a majority had wanted "reforms" they could have been achieved through normal political processes. I have never heard a clear description of what these "reforms" are that "the majority" wanted. How would you structure a referendum on undefined objectives?

[tigermonkey]

The stupidity in all of this is that no one has stood still long enough to think what they are actually talking about. Reformation ( or "reforms") is not a finite task with an end point, no matter which sector you apply the reforms to. Reforms are a process and not a finite task. Reformation should never cease.

The only task of reform which could be accomplished with a finite ending, would be fixing the lottery ( which wasn't really broken). I can see that taking 2 years.

[Artisi]

Here's a little mathematical exercise to test the credibility of this poll.

First, the basic stats:

Number of people surveyed: 1,249

Percent supporting delay: 75.11%

Percent opposing delay: 24.89%

The precision of the % reported allows us to calculate the exact number of people who answered each way:

Number supporting delay = 1249 x .7511 = 938.1239 people

Number opposing delay = 1249 x .2489 = 310.8761 people

This is odd. Partial people.

Let's look at it from the other side, and assume the number of respondents as follows:

Number supporting = 938 (maybe)

Number opposing = 311 (maybe)

Total polled = 1249

We can then calculate the percentages just as the poll takers did

Percent supporting = 938/1249 x 100 = 75.10%

Percent opposing = 311/1249 x 100 = 24.90%

Now I am guessing the poll takers just committed a common "rounding error", and then compounded the error by using incorrect figure in a subsequent calculation.

However, it gives one the impression of incompetence by the poll takers.

They should really just drop the pretense of precision, which has no place in poll results like this.

Something like: About 75% favored, and about 25% opposed.

Less precision = more credibility.

Typical "experts" splitting hairs to cover their a rse, just in case someone raises an issue. To be precise they should run the percentages to at least 4 decimal places (which I have seem in a few draft PhD thesis papers).

Of course you are correct, just round all the figures to something meaningful and readable,

ie. 1250 people surveyed, resulting in 75% in favour and 25% against.

[h90]

1,249 out of 60 million is hardly a majority. Even Thai math' s would not equate to that.

these polls have I have said before belong in the toilet.

1249 is a good sample if they people are choosen smart, which is difficult with strong regional differences.

Well if you are representing the smartness of the south then........

I generally cannot work out whether your replies are serious, tongue in cheek or just humming half the time.

polls for major elections are often just 400-500 people, that is good enough for a +/-3 %

[phoenixdoglover]

1,249 out of 60 million is hardly a majority. Even Thai math' s would not equate to that.

these polls have I have said before belong in the toilet.

1249 is a good sample if they people are choosen smart, which is difficult with strong regional differences.

This is funny!

Question No.1 - Are you smart?

(If answer is Yes, proceed to next question)

[rubl]

1,249 out of 60 million is hardly a majority. Even Thai math' s would not equate to that.

these polls have I have said before belong in the toilet.

1249 is a good sample if they people are choosen smart, which is difficult with strong regional differences.

This is funny!

Question No.1 - Are you smart?

(If answer is Yes, proceed to next question)

I guess h90 meant 'if choosen using sound, accepted scientific methods'.

[Praematura]

The primary reform is to remove the ability to elect a pm. It's been articulated by everyone including Abhsit (who is against this.)