Canal 'an option if geopolitical factors change'

[Lite Beer]

SPECIAL REPORT
Canal 'an option if geopolitical factors change'
Nophakhun Limsamarnphun
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Adviser cautious about Kra canal's possible economic benefits

DR PANITAN Wattanayagorn, a top adviser of Deputy PM and Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan, appears to have adopted a cautious stance on the Kra Canal, suggesting that economic benefits that may result from a sea lane across southern Thailand to link the Indian and Pacific oceans remains a big challenge.

Yet, the geo-political expert believes the power play among big countries has intensified in recent years, marked by Beijing's strong position in the South China Sea and evidenced by the latest reclamation of around 2,000 acres of land over the past 18 months in the Spratly islands.

Meantime, the US has stepped up its countervailing power in this region by speaking out publicly against China's plan for the disputed islands and sending surveillance planes into the area - also claimed by Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam.

Hence, any attempt to revive the Kra Canal scheme should be put into perspective by looking at its economic benefits and its regional security implications.

From China's point of view, it would prefer to a shorter alternate route to reach the Indian Ocean rather than relying on the sole present route through the Strait of Malacca, as it attempts to expand its naval power in this region to match its economic clout on the global stage.

In response to this scenario, Panitan said, Thailand needed to adopt a great balancing act by engaging both the US and China.

"The latest example is that we've agreed to the US request to use Phuket as a base for helping migrants stranded at sea," he said.

"In the wake of the May 2014 coup, China appears to have got the edge [over the US] when dealing with Thailand. On the other hand, the US is compelled by its policy to scale down its diplomatic relations with Thailand following the coup," he said.

"So there are some restrictions in the current stage of the Thai-US relationship. Yet, the US may increase bilateral cooperation in the military area with Thailand. Even Singapore has adjusted its relationship with big powers by increasing cooperation with Russia in addition to its strong relations with the US."

Regarding the Kra Canal's economic benefit, the competitive advantage will still be a major challenge as long as the Strait of Malacca in Singapore is not fully

used and Singapore remains a highly competitive port of call in terms of efficiency, speed, and other factors.

Nevertheless, the Kra Canal should be seen from a longer-term perspective as an alternate short-cut sea route that may supplement the existing route, especially in the event of major accidents.

"It may be economically worthwhile in the long term as trade and investment continue to grow in China, India, Asean and other parts of East Asia vis-a-vis the rest of world," Panitan said.

"For oil shipments, it's also in the interest of China to have an alternative transport route from the Middle East to China as most of China's oil imports are currently shipped via the Strait of Malacca."

Last but not least, the current rivalry between China and the US in this part of the world is increasingly reminiscent of the colonial time, when in 1882 both England and France were competing to cut the Kra Canal and the Siamese government at the time had to walk a diplomatic tightrope, according to Dr Sumet Jumsai, a renowned architect who is well-versed in Thai history.

Sumet cited a book, "Prince Prisdang's Files on His Diplomatic Activities in Europe from 1880-1886", which says: "Both England and France showed great interest in cutting the canal through the Isthmus of Kra to shorten the sea route to the Far East and save shipping expenses.

"M Grehan, the Thai consul in Paris, came out openly in his letters to the Thai government in support the French endeavours. Understand-ably, he accused Mason, the Thai consul in London, of involvement with an English firm."

The book adds: "King Chula-longkorn however had to act diplomatically and prudently when the two big powers, England and France, were concerned in the Kra Canal.

"He could not favour one in case he might injure the pride of the other."

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Canal-an-option-if-geopolitical-factors-change-30262217.html

-- The Nation 2015-06-13

[cloudhopper]

The Kra Canal is a bad idea that will never become reality.

[NanLaew]

...to link the Indian and Pacific oceans...

This makes it sound like a major man-made sea lane whereas the reality is it will connect the Andaman Sea with the Gulf of Thailand.

Not same same...

[impulse]

The Kra Canal is a bad idea that will never become reality.

I wonder how many pages we could fill with bad ideas that came to fruition simply because of the opportunities for a few folks to get filthy rich.

[ddavidovsky]

Next idea:

[Smokemachine]

Instead of keep fantasise this canal, can we think another realistic canal to free Bangkok from drowning?

It seems getting more bad nowadays.

Please.

[Soutpeel]

The Kra Canal is a bad idea that will never become reality.

I wonder how many pages we could fill with bad ideas that came to fruition simply because of the opportunities for a few folks to get filthy rich.

I am curious as why he thinks its a bad idea ?

[ratcatcher]

Next idea:

Yes, but Brian Sweeney (Fitzcarraldo) Fitzgerald managed to get his steamboat where he wanted it. So actually he achieved part of his goal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fitzcarraldo

The Kra Canal OTOH remains a distant dream.

[Srikcir]

"The latest example is that we've agreed to the US request to use Phuket as a base for helping migrants stranded at sea,"

The Junta ALLOWING the USA to give humantarian aide to the migrants is hardly a diplomatic balancing act. Aide that Thailand is relunctant to provide as Prayut deems the safety of the migrants as someone else's problem. Since many of the migrants are allegedly stateless, the USA gets no political advantage through its aid.

So the Junta gives the USA something it doesn't need. Very crafty indeed.

Unfortunately the Junta can't give what the USA does want from the Junta - a democratic nation.

[h90]

such a canal would be a huge benefit, Thailand could take over lot of business from Singapore. Together with a free trade zone lots of company will place their stock there.

As it would kill Singapore in the long term, the same idea will brought up from every new government since decades and than with the blink of an eye the discussion stops.....Everyone with common sense can think what happened.....

[NanLaew]

such a canal would be a huge benefit, Thailand could take over lot of business from Singapore. Together with a free trade zone lots of company will place their stock there.

As it would kill Singapore in the long term, the same idea will brought up from every new government since decades and than with the blink of an eye the discussion stops.....Everyone with common sense can think what happened.....

Bugger! I have no common sense after all.

OK, I'm over that. Now tell me what happened.

[cloudhopper]

The Kra Canal is a bad idea that will never become reality.

I wonder how many pages we could fill with bad ideas that came to fruition simply because of the opportunities for a few folks to get filthy rich.

I am curious as why he thinks its a bad idea ?

Canals can be economically feasible when they are shortcutting the alternative routes around Africa and South America, but not the tiny Malay Peninsula. The geopolitical arguments in this article are rubbish too.

[cloudhopper]

such a canal would be a huge benefit, Thailand could take over lot of business from Singapore. Together with a free trade zone lots of company will place their stock there.

As it would kill Singapore in the long term, the same idea will brought up from every new government since decades and than with the blink of an eye the discussion stops.....Everyone with common sense can think what happened.....

lol I don't think that Singapore is too worried about competition from such an incompetent and corrupt state. Any country contemplating relying on that canal need only recall how the national airport was closed down for a week with huge economic losses by a few protestors never prosecuted.

[Soutpeel]

The Kra Canal is a bad idea that will never become reality.

I wonder how many pages we could fill with bad ideas that came to fruition simply because of the opportunities for a few folks to get filthy rich.

I am curious as why he thinks its a bad idea ?

Canals can be economically feasible when they are shortcutting the alternative routes around Africa and South America, but not the tiny Malay Peninsula. The geopolitical arguments in this article are rubbish too.

Canals which short cut any distance/time marine can very economically, time is money as they say, lets say a large cargo ship can get to Bangkok 24-36 hours earlier by using this channel instead of straits of Malacca/Singapore, there are significant savings in both fuel and time for the operator so it is viable

As someone who works in an marine environment I can see the benefit of canal such as this, not that I think it will be ever built, but can see the benefit if it was

[Soutpeel]

such a canal would be a huge benefit, Thailand could take over lot of business from Singapore. Together with a free trade zone lots of company will place their stock there.

As it would kill Singapore in the long term, the same idea will brought up from every new government since decades and than with the blink of an eye the discussion stops.....Everyone with common sense can think what happened.....

lol I don't think that Singapore is too worried about competition from such an incompetent and corrupt state. Any country contemplating relying on that canal need only recall how the national airport was closed down for a week with huge economic losses by a few protestors never prosecuted.

so in reality your not anti canal per se, your anti the country where the canal would be located, your reasoning here has nothing to do with the technical or economic viability in the least

[Seastallion]

The Kra Canal is a bad idea that will never become reality.

I wonder how many pages we could fill with bad ideas that came to fruition simply because of the opportunities for a few folks to get filthy rich.

I am curious as why he thinks its a bad idea ?

There's certainly a few pro's, but the cons are quite significant.

The best route starts at Songkhla, and in doing so, will breach the lake, making it salt. This will affect not only the wildlife of the lake itself, but all the farms surrounding it. It's not a small lake, and the impact will be big, affecting tens of thousands of people.

There are other ecological and social concerns all along the way, not the smallest being where to dump the millions of tons of rock and dirt.

And if financial matters are your only concern, who is building it, do you think, and who will control it (effectively), and who will get the lion's share of the profits? China.

I'm for it...IF...Songkhla lake is not salinated, IF the waste rock and dirt are distributed wisely (I think an artificial island might be a good idea), and IF Thailand ensures it collects the profits and has total control over it's operation.

[cloudhopper]

such a canal would be a huge benefit, Thailand could take over lot of business from Singapore. Together with a free trade zone lots of company will place their stock there.

As it would kill Singapore in the long term, the same idea will brought up from every new government since decades and than with the blink of an eye the discussion stops.....Everyone with common sense can think what happened.....

lol I don't think that Singapore is too worried about competition from such an incompetent and corrupt state. Any country contemplating relying on that canal need only recall how the national airport was closed down for a week with huge economic losses by a few protestors never prosecuted.

so in reality your not anti canal per se, your anti the country where the canal would be located, your reasoning here has nothing to do with the technical or economic viability in the least

I do think the socioeconomic and political realities deserve consideration but in the end the canal will not be built for economic reasons - the fees needed to cover the construction and operating costs would not make the savings for this route worth doing. Why do you think it won't ever be built?

[NanLaew]

I wonder how many pages we could fill with bad ideas that came to fruition simply because of the opportunities for a few folks to get filthy rich.

I am curious as why he thinks its a bad idea ?

Canals can be economically feasible when they are shortcutting the alternative routes around Africa and South America, but not the tiny Malay Peninsula. The geopolitical arguments in this article are rubbish too.

Canals which short cut any distance/time marine can very economically, time is money as they say, lets say a large cargo ship can get to Bangkok 24-36 hours earlier by using this channel instead of straits of Malacca/Singapore, there are significant savings in both fuel and time for the operator so it is viable

As someone who works in an marine environment I can see the benefit of canal such as this, not that I think it will be ever built, but can see the benefit if it was

Bangkok or Laem Chabang-bound traffic should not be the target market. Looking at the graphic below, the canal needs to be large enough to entice a broad chunk of that heavy east-west trade that passes through Singapore to divert via the canal. The confluence of the Singapore-Hong Kong and Singapore-Japan routes to the SSE of Vietnam sees between 150 and 180 vessels daily (I know... I am sat here counting them). I would wager that most of the vessels do break bulk at Singapore in that they transfer containers and other bulk cargo onto other vessels to carry on to their respective destinations. Kra canal would need to provide that facility at both ends of the canal (and provide bulk transport in between) as the pure in-transit traffic is less than the break bulk traffic. The east-west sail distance saving if going via a Kra canal would be roughly 400 nm so maybe a 20 hour time saving at 20 knots? Then you add on the canal transit time. It would need to be a seriously big investment to make it all viable IMHO. The talk of a huge container terminal and port just up the east coast in Myanmar could be the Andaman Sea terminus but not sure if there's deep enough water for something similar at the Gulf of Thailand end.

[Tomtomtom69]

I am curious as why he thinks its a bad idea ?

Canals can be economically feasible when they are shortcutting the alternative routes around Africa and South America, but not the tiny Malay Peninsula. The geopolitical arguments in this article are rubbish too.

Canals which short cut any distance/time marine can very economically, time is money as they say, lets say a large cargo ship can get to Bangkok 24-36 hours earlier by using this channel instead of straits of Malacca/Singapore, there are significant savings in both fuel and time for the operator so it is viable

As someone who works in an marine environment I can see the benefit of canal such as this, not that I think it will be ever built, but can see the benefit if it was

Bangkok or Laem Chabang-bound traffic should not be the target market. Looking at the graphic below, the canal needs to be large enough to entice a broad chunk of that heavy east-west trade that passes through Singapore to divert via the canal. The confluence of the Singapore-Hong Kong and Singapore-Japan routes to the SSE of Vietnam sees between 150 and 180 vessels daily (I know... I am sat here counting them). I would wager that most of the vessels do break bulk at Singapore in that they transfer containers and other bulk cargo onto other vessels to carry on to their respective destinations. Kra canal would need to provide that facility at both ends of the canal (and provide bulk transport in between) as the pure in-transit traffic is less than the break bulk traffic. The east-west sail distance saving if going via a Kra canal would be roughly 400 nm so maybe a 20 hour time saving at 20 knots? Then you add on the canal transit time. It would need to be a seriously big investment to make it all viable IMHO. The talk of a huge container terminal and port just up the east coast in Myanmar could be the Andaman Sea terminus but not sure if there's deep enough water for something similar at the Gulf of Thailand end.

east sea shipping lanes.jpg

If you ask me, I think China (the major beneficiary of this canal, if it were to be built) should rather focus it's attention back to more realistic projects which could help speed up trade flows between China (particularly the expanding west and south-west of the country) and Europe/middle East and Africa. The canal, which is already a very controversial project would after all take many decades to be built anyway.

That strategy involves Myanmar, China's direct neighbor to the south-west and with a large coastline along the Indian Ocean. The Kyaukphyu oil and gas pipeline to Yunnan is already operating and although there are some security concerns in Myanmar' Kokang region, the imminent opening of the Ruili-Muse checkpoint as an international border crossing and an upgraded road between Muse and Mandalay, which will hopefully eliminate many of the hairpin turns (switchbacks) along that horrible, winding and dangerous road where hundreds, if not thousands of trucks travel along daily, transporting Myanmar primary produce to China and bringing back manufactured goods will make travel between Kunming and the Myanmar coast much faster. Once more expressways and other supporting infrastructure connecting China and the Burmese coastline at Kyaukphyu are completed including a possible high-speed rail link (the original one was shelved by the Burmese government), that area could turn into a major logistics and port hub for Myanmar and China. Not to mention many labor intensive and polluting industries could be located there too, many of which would be Chinese companies.

The Dawei project meanwhile has the potential for offering similar benefits for Thailand and Thai companies.