SURVEY: What direction is the Thai Economy headed?

[Scott]

Recent reports indicate that the global economy is experiencing problems. In your opinion, do you think the government will be able to guide the Thai economy through the current economic downturn successfully?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/833885-thailands-economic-engine-sputtering-as-global-storm-approaches/

Please feel free to post a comment.

[MockingJay]

If we could refer to the military junta as "government", the answer is that they will not be able to lead Thailand through the economic downturn, respectively the coming collapse of the monetary system without serious damage to the country, its people and the local economy.

Why? Because the time since the coup has shown that most actions and implemented changes were nothing but blind activism, ever more crackdowns, tighter rules and regulations plus tourist scares... i.e. the beach cleanups and "Your private umbrella and beach recliner is confiscated now, get off the beach before I arrest you, you stupid, money paying tourist, this is Thailand!" alike incidents that have caused outrage in western newspapers, causing a drop of up to 40% in western tourist numbers (insider info gained in a meeting of hoteliers in Phuket, and don't expect to read anything about that in Thai media).

Then there were reports of confiscated billions of Thai Baht during the crackdown on corruption (pessimists would say, a "reshuffle of wealth"), but not a single word was spoken about where this money and assets would be invested to improve the country's current situation. The junta and its leader were not able to bring peace to the south, nor were they able to bring true peace to the rest of the country. A proper and honorable government would implement changes that would bring happiness and satisfaction to the people, but not instruct people to be happy.

Yes, the ranting Suthep idiot and his cronies on stage are gone now, but under the surface the peoples' rage is still boiling, especially that of the hard working ones who face more restrictions, more crackdowns, more rules and regulations, increasing costs for living, food, rent, and healthcare, etc...

Show me anything positive, that the Thai man on the street could cling onto - any light at the end of the tunnel, any positive outlook that things are getting better, food cheaper, rental prices lower, so that less unfortunate Thais could live a life in dignity rather than finding comfort in alcohol and drugs (does one truly believe that the alcohol sales time restriction will change that?). There is no plan B for this current "government" letting alone they would have a plan A...

Then the "leader" says that he needs the input of the people to bring positive change to Thailand. Yeah right - and then if anyone speaks up, hush him down or retain him without trial for "attitude readjustment"... Right - kick anyone in the groins who dares to speak up. Laugh at the ones who try to give you ideas on what to change and the ones who try to tell you what the people truly think... Certainly this will change Thailand's future to the better...

So getting back to the question - all of the above combined with the oh, so typical Thai "we are the greatest people on earth and don't you white skinned idiots try to tell us what's right and what wrong" attitude, we have the perfect ingedients for a super storm in case another disaster (i.e. global economy meltdown) hits. Anyone who believes otherwise is either a hopeless dreamer or blind and deaf.

Edited June 22, 2015 by MockingJay

[JOC]

^^^ So you voted: "Thailand will not experience any significant economic problems"

Seriously a very good post and spot on!!

[konying]

Teflon Thailand has sailed for too many years either being lucky or bluffing.

I believe it's about to hit the wall , no economy on this planet can just stay on the up cycle indefinitely.

The crash in my opinion would not be a bad thing as it will bring tourists, the ones who actually spend money and will boost exports, being cheaper .

But it's nothing but speculations, I am betting on September

[Suradit69]

Recent reports indicate that the global economy is experiencing problems.

What a hilarious summing up of a complex and constantly evolving situation.

Sort of like saying recent reports suggest peace in the Middle East is experiencing some problems/

[johnmcc6]

The poo will hit the fan starting in October this year according to Martin Armstrong who has quite a record for accuracy on forcasting financial trends. The cause is all countries are consumed by debt. He recons it will cause many bank failures, national bankrupcies and will go for two years bfore real reform of the system begins. He calls it the Big Bang and it won't be pretty.I personaly would like to see the Baht go down and Chang beer return to 6.4 %.

[Colabamumbai]

Thailand has long been a place for nefarious people to come. What with Dengue in the South, Mers, and a military Govt. and rampant crime, your life is worth nothing here, I think less tourists will come to the country. Thailand depends on tourism dollars.

We as foreigners are not wanted here but our money and investment is.

Take me back to the Thailand of the 70's.

[quandow]

Sorry, can't vote on this one. This is a silly poll as there is no WAY to verify the facts.

[spidermike007]

Are you insinuating that the funds confiscated went into a "lets improve life for the common man" fund of some sort?

[Eric Loh]

What direction is Thai economy heading will depend on how desirable is Thailand for investments. Uncertainty disencourage investment and hurt economic growth. The coup brought uncertainty with a unstable political environment and stagnate structural economic reforms. To make matter worse, we have a lame and ineffective cabinet that gives us no confident that they can solve our economic woes.

[weegee]

Teflon Thailand has sailed for too many years either being lucky or bluffing.

I believe it's about to hit the wall , no economy on this planet can just stay on the up cycle indefinitely.

The crash in my opinion would not be a bad thing as it will bring tourists, the ones who actually spend money and will boost exports, being cheaper .

But it's nothing but speculations, I am betting on September

yep...my bet was about mid august...

My other bet goes to....the Aussie Dollar to rise around November...

[namatjira]

They have alot of rice, if the weather patterns are indeed el nino of the drought variety this stockpile could well be a saving grace, given that the majority of it is stored correctly....maybe they have a large asset base of an essential element of survival....food......sometimes a wild card comes good........they also have decent cash reserves at the moment and are hopefully well placed with the extra trade asean should bring.....they have the best infrastructure of the neighbouring countries, not flash by western standards but the best of the bunch......if push comes to shove they will still have a functioning local economy, and they can just trade with goods and services......they are survivors that is for sure........does appear as if much of the western world could be in an economic tailspin....the planes about to crash.

Ask the Russians how long it can take to be totally taken out of the economic framework and dumped...it happens fast and nobody seems to see it coming.....when oil was heading up to 140 a barrel, how many would have picked the future price.......like the americans and the start of this global turndown, it happens fast...guess thats why they call it a crash....

[IMA_FARANG]

I voted for the third choice.

No, the county will not be able to weather the economic storm well, but will not suffer more than most countries.

Meaning that there will be a downturn in economic conditions in Thailand, but I see no reason it will be comparatively greater than other Asian countries.

I expect a worldwide slow down in the next year or so but I don't see Thailand as particularly worse than other Asian countries.

I would pick Malaysia and Indonesia as worse off than Thailand because they will be more to be hurt by continuing low oil and gas prices, and also a slowdown in Chinese imports of commodities and therefore a drop in commodity prices.

But that is just a guess.

One problem Thailand does have however is a continuing possibility of political problems.

If that happens, then Thailand could be in trouble due to investors unwilling to invest in Thailand in the short term anyhow.

Another problem that might crop up is political troubles between Hong Kong and China over the voting-rights issue.

If demonstrations in Hong Kong flare up, that could throw a big monkey wrench in current predictions.

But that is all guesswork and "what-ifs" anyhow.

Edited June 22, 2015 by IMA_FARANG

[NCFC]

Both the US and UK central banks are talking of raising interest rates for the first time in eight years as unemployment falls and wage rates are rising. The expected time frame is in the autumn. Already FDI into the BRIC countries is falling off at high rates. For Thailand events are shaping up very similar to the last crash in '97 with a property construction boom fuelled by cheap foreign money causing a glut in the property market. When interest rates rise, those construction projects will collapse and the financial institutions that provided the loans will go belly-up, too. It will be a rerun of '97 all over again.

The problem Thailand faces this time round is that there is much more competition from neighbouring countries such as Vietnam, Burma, and further field, China.It will be much harder for the Thai economy to recover and with a clueless military government in charge Thailand's prospects look very bleak.

Advise to expats, sell Thai baht, sit on cash until the crisis passes overhead. You'll come out with a much improved exchange rate and plenty of cheap assets to choose from at the end of the year.

[Thai at Heart]

They will weather any storm OK, but there appears no plan whatsoever to move the country forward business wise. Too much time and effort being devoted to tracking the internet , internal security and planning the constitution. All wasted years.

No tangible reduction in corruption, no progress in trade agreements, no real.reforms achieved yet. All talk and no progress.

[MarkmBha]

According to the poll - not good for Thailand.

[Srikcir]

I voted for the third choice.

No, the county will not be able to weather the economic storm well, but will not suffer more than most countries.

Meaning that there will be a downturn in economic conditions in Thailand, but I see no reason it will be comparatively greater than other Asian countries.

I expect a worldwide slow down in the next year or so but I don't see Thailand as particularly worse than other Asian countries.

I would pick Malaysia and Indonesia as worse off than Thailand because they will be more to be hurt by continuing low oil and gas prices, and also a slowdown in Chinese imports of commodities and therefore a drop in commodity prices.

But that is just a guess.

One problem Thailand does have however is a continuing possibility of political problems.

If that happens, then Thailand could be in trouble due to investors unwilling to invest in Thailand in the short term anyhow.

Another problem that might crop up is political troubles between Hong Kong and China over the voting-rights issue.

If demonstrations in Hong Kong flare up, that could throw a big monkey wrench in current predictions.

But that is all guesswork and "what-ifs" anyhow.

Indonesia has been a net oil importer since 2008 when it left OPEC. So it would benefit from lower oil prices.

But it still is in an energy crisis as its demand for gasoline has skyrocketed in the last five years due to lack of refinery capacity. The government has been trying to suppress cost increases with large subsidies which largely offset the cost savings from cheap oil. If its "zero-sum" energy pricing policy is negated by rising oil prices, its economy will begin to stagnate.

[joshstiles]

when comparing the thai economy to these survey questions.... the thai economy is doing great!!!

[Colabamumbai]

when comparing the thai economy to these survey questions.... the thai economy is doing great!!!

You have been talking to the rice farmers have you?

[Tomtomtom69]

If we could refer to the military junta as "government", the answer is that they will not be able to lead Thailand through the economic downturn, respectively the coming collapse of the monetary system without serious damage to the country, its people and the local economy.

Why? Because the time since the coup has shown that most actions and implemented changes were nothing but blind activism, ever more crackdowns, tighter rules and regulations plus tourist scares... i.e. the beach cleanups and "Your private umbrella and beach recliner is confiscated now, get off the beach before I arrest you, you stupid, money paying tourist, this is Thailand!" alike incidents that have caused outrage in western newspapers, causing a drop of up to 40% in western tourist numbers (insider info gained in a meeting of hoteliers in Phuket, and don't expect to read anything about that in Thai media).

Then there were reports of confiscated billions of Thai Baht during the crackdown on corruption (pessimists would say, a "reshuffle of wealth"), but not a single word was spoken about where this money and assets would be invested to improve the country's current situation. The junta and its leader were not able to bring peace to the south, nor were they able to bring true peace to the rest of the country. A proper and honorable government would implement changes that would bring happiness and satisfaction to the people, but not instruct people to be happy.

Yes, the ranting Suthep idiot and his cronies on stage are gone now, but under the surface the peoples' rage is still boiling, especially that of the hard working ones who face more restrictions, more crackdowns, more rules and regulations, increasing costs for living, food, rent, and healthcare, etc...

Show me anything positive, that the Thai man on the street could cling onto - any light at the end of the tunnel, any positive outlook that things are getting better, food cheaper, rental prices lower, so that less unfortunate Thais could live a life in dignity rather than finding comfort in alcohol and drugs (does one truly believe that the alcohol sales time restriction will change that?). There is no plan B for this current "government" letting alone they would have a plan A...

Then the "leader" says that he needs the input of the people to bring positive change to Thailand. Yeah right - and then if anyone speaks up, hush him down or retain him without trial for "attitude readjustment"... Right - kick anyone in the groins who dares to speak up. Laugh at the ones who try to give you ideas on what to change and the ones who try to tell you what the people truly think... Certainly this will change Thailand's future to the better...

So getting back to the question - all of the above combined with the oh, so typical Thai "we are the greatest people on earth and don't you white skinned idiots try to tell us what's right and what wrong" attitude, we have the perfect ingedients for a super storm in case another disaster (i.e. global economy meltdown) hits. Anyone who believes otherwise is either a hopeless dreamer or blind and deaf.

Excellent post. But since when are "white skinned idiots" even telling these dumb cretins anything anymore? As you say, western tourists aren't coming much anymore, I'm surprised there are even any still coming. Many of course are just passing through for a day to grab a visa to Myanmar or a bus to Cambodia. But Thais are even less likely to listen to anyone of their "poor" neighboring countries.

Oh well...they're the ones who will suffer in the end.

[ExPratt]

I think they have put out a lot of misinformation and ambitious claims of Growth ect. Which they have to do to protect themselves as part as their compulsory installation of happiness into the wretched poor people

[Tomtomtom69]

Teflon Thailand has sailed for too many years either being lucky or bluffing.

I believe it's about to hit the wall , no economy on this planet can just stay on the up cycle indefinitely.

The crash in my opinion would not be a bad thing as it will bring tourists, the ones who actually spend money and will boost exports, being cheaper .

But it's nothing but speculations, I am betting on September

yep...my bet was about mid august...

My other bet goes to....the Aussie Dollar to rise around November...

Why mid-August? What happens then?

[ratcatcher]

Teflon Thailand has sailed for too many years either being lucky or bluffing.

I believe it's about to hit the wall , no economy on this planet can just stay on the up cycle indefinitely.

The crash in my opinion would not be a bad thing as it will bring tourists, the ones who actually spend money and will boost exports, being cheaper .

But it's nothing but speculations, I am betting on September

yep...my bet was about mid august...

My other bet goes to....the Aussie Dollar to rise around November...

Why mid-August? What happens then?

The glorious 12th.The start of the shooting season for those who like to grouse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glorious_Twelfth

[Asiantravel]

The poo will hit the fan starting in October this year according to Martin Armstrong who has quite a record for accuracy on forcasting financial trends. The cause is all countries are consumed by debt. He recons it will cause many bank failures, national bankrupcies and will go for two years bfore real reform of the system begins. He calls it the Big Bang and it won't be pretty.I personaly would like to see the Baht go down and Chang beer return to 6.4 %.

" and will go for two years bfore real reform of the system begins."

And what does he say will happen after two years because real reform will require people to be much less dependent on consumer credit? Surely that in itself will be a major game change and much more subdued economic activity.

[waza]

Thailand will survive by becoming a de facto Chinese state like Myanmar, relying on Chinese investment, Chinese tourist and Chinese products.

Edited June 22, 2015 by waza

[naboo]

Workers at factories in Lamphun are down to a 5-day working week at best, with some poor folk down to 2-days. No overtime available, redundancies expected in the near future.

Not looking good, and a few locals are talking to me about wanting a certain Mr T back. Troubles ahead?

[Cake Monster]

Having spent some time talking with 2 local retail business owners in the last week, the Thai economy is already on a slippery slope.

Both these retailers spoke of very little money being spent in their respective business,s by farang over the last few months.

If the economy is starting to suffer now, then the future looks very bad, especially as the FED and BOE start to ease, possibly in September. However this will be the least of the Thai problems, and the real problems will happen in 2016 as rates from the FED excelerate once the program has started.

[Manbing]

Thailand will fair somewhere below the do ok mark.

Exports will fall in line with trade partner economies, manufacturing will drop off. ASEAN effect will kick in and save Thailand a bit. High domestic debt will limit purchasing.

[CantSpell]

Advise to expats, sell Thai baht, sit on cash until the crisis passes overhead. You'll come out with a much improved exchange rate and plenty of cheap assets to choose from at the end of the year.

Would that really be a sound advice?

If the finance storms hits globally, what will be different in Thailand than, let's say, in Europe?

Why would THB take a hit and not EUR or USD?

[phuketandsee]

Thailand will fair worse than other countries. 999 days is a long time if they are serious.