A new ROAD-MAP TWIST: consolidation versus reconciliation

[webfact]

THAI TALK
A new ROAD-MAP TWIST: consolidation versus reconciliation

BANGKOK: -- The political road map towards the next election is being revised so extensively that anyone could get lost, take a wrong exit or pull over to a roadside "rest stop" for an indefinite break.

Perhaps the road map has turned into a maze. It's become a puzzle, with complex branching passages through which the traveller must find his way out. This ongoing "road-map game" is just like a maze game, in which the pathways and walls are fixed, even though the puzzle itself can change midway through the game.

Observers of the current political landscape are obviously trying to figure out how and when the country will emerge from this maze. Of course, you could say that Thailand's flirting with "democracy" over the past 80 years or so has been nothing more than a maze game anyway.

After eight decades of experimenting with Western-style democracy, we still aren't quite sure what "reform" is all about. And when "reform" and "reconciliation" are thrown into the same boiling pot called a "coup", things get even more confusing.

Just when everybody thought the "reconciliation" effort was being jettisoned after the run-in between Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha and former premier Thaksin Shinawatra over the latter's public comments on the first anniversary of the May 22, 2014, coup, the general launched a surprise "charm offensive", inviting protagonists from both sides of the conflict to a series of "chit-chat" sessions with military officers.

It was at more or less the same time that the powers-that-be decided to put an end to the National Reform Council (NRC) - once it votes on the draft constitution on September 4 - and replace it with a Reform Steering Council (RSC).

There is little doubt that the move was motivated by the premier's disillusionment over the reform process. It's another step in consolidating his power base - a new twist in the road map.

The fresh strategy is two-pronged, with "consolidation" running in parallel with "reconciliation" while still chanting the "reform" melody and holding high the "security" banner.

Brushing aside rumours of a counter-coup, Gen Prayut seems to have consolidated his military power base, whether or not his younger brother, General Preecha Chan-o-cha, is promoted to the post of Army commander-in-chief in October. It's the political landscape that appears to be more complicated for him.

With the seven-point amendments to the interim constitution, several political and legal knots seem to have been untied. He could now pave the way for politicians who were banned from participating for five years to return to the field. Although he's said he wouldn't put any of them in his Cabinet - or in the National Legislative Assembly or the new Reform Steering Council - Prayut has somehow reduced the prevailing tension between him and the rest of the political class anxiously waiting for his next move.

Of course no one in the know takes the "reform agenda" seriously. And the proposal to ask citizens in a referendum to vote for a two-year "reform before election" incubation period has fizzled out now that we know the road map could be redrawn in a number of ways while behind-the-scenes negotiations on a fresh agenda are worked out.

Depending on how you see it, the upcoming referendum could be either a facilitator or a roadblock against a return to electoral politics. Whether the draft of the new charter will be passed or not will depend largely on whether the compromises being discussed between the Constitution Drafting Committee and dissidents within the NRC are eventually settled.

The biggest paradox, of course, is that, in certain quarters, the belief is growing that the establishment might not really mind if the majority of referendum votes send the draft charter down the drain.

There is order in the apparent chaos. And, if you really follow unfolding events closely enough, you might even come to the conclusion that, for the people in charge, consolidation of power and reconciliation with former opponents aren't necessarily opposing forces.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/A-new-ROAD-MAP-TWIST-consolidation-versus-reconcil-30263062.html


-- The Nation 2015-06-25

[Bannum opinions]

"After eight decades of experimenting with Western-style democracy"

Sometimes one seemingly off-hand comment firmly establishes the political orientation of the author.

The above quote is one of them.

The anti-democrats are very keen on trying to establish the notion that somehow Thailand is different with respect to democratic practices. By referencing "Western-style democracy" as commonly accepted fact, they hope to establish that Democracy-differentiation nonsense as reality.

They have to do this, if their attempts re-establish their own hegemony can be passed off as democratic.....They need to change the electoral dynamics of the past several elections in their favor, which can only be done by diddling with the system. To such a degree that Electoral Democracy is present in name only. For example, they need to rid the system of the notion of majority rule.....That is why Parliamentary majorities are referred to as dictatorial. They call this diddling "Reform" and phony Democracy as "Thai Democracy"

"......we still aren't quite sure what "reform" is all about"

Who is "we"?.......The majority electorate knows exactly what so-called reform is all about...It is why the anti-democrats cancel elections and avoid them going forward. That electorate frightens them. They will do this until "reform" eliminates majority rule via Democratic elections, but can hopefully still be passed off as Democracy....Only the arrogant self-serving anti-democrats think they can fool people in this manner....But they also know that their political nemesis - the electoral majority - is simply waiting in the weeds until they remove coercive controls. They are afraid to conduct elections and Constitution referendums in a Democratic manner....It is why they are fumbling around right now, trying to figure out how to do this in a self-serving controlled manner, but make it appear democratic...A tall order indeed.

But this is all so self-evident, I am probably maligning the intelligence of readers telling them the obvious.

Edited June 25, 2015 by Bannum opinions

[bamnutsak]

Yeah, easy to drive off the road following this "road map".

Even GPS (GLONASS?) can't keep track of the "five rivers" and new "roads".

[oneday]

Road-map twist...simply means "Broken Promises" and no reason to trust this government.

"...the powers-that-be decided to put an end to the National Reform Council (NRC) - once it votes on the draft constitution on September 4 - and replace it with a Reform Steering Council (RSC)..."

Sure, they didn't agree with the CDC and caused too much friction and dissent with respect to the constitution so they have to go. I'll bet the new RSC is much more in-line with the CDC and likewise in-line with Mr. P.

[Bannum opinions]

Road-map twist...simply means "Broken Promises" and no reason to trust this government.

"...the powers-that-be decided to put an end to the National Reform Council (NRC) - once it votes on the draft constitution on September 4 - and replace it with a Reform Steering Council (RSC)..."

Sure, they didn't agree with the CDC and caused too much friction and dissent with respect to the constitution so they have to go. I'll bet the new RSC is much more in-line with the CDC and likewise in-line with Mr. P.

Agree.

Although basically "everyone is in line with everyone" anyway.... Call them CDC, RSC or any of the myriad initials they have created for the groups the anti-democrats have segmented themselves into.......Any attempt to demonstrate political thinking beyond their own views is phony. Trying characterize their discussions as constituting political diversity....Doesn't work for me.

With respect to the constitution they are formulating, and trying to figure out how to conduct a controlled referendum that favors them. Actually, there is a clear dichotomy here..........It is essentially "their" constitution. It is firmly rooted in the Lumpini PDRC and other anti-democratic entities with no developmental inclusivity.

They struggle with trying to figure out how to sell their thing with limited or no alternative choices.........It would be interesting to see the forces of legitimate Democratic entities also develop a constitution...Legitimate in that they are credibly representative of the electoral majority. Than offer the electorate a choice between the two versions, after debates between both sides. Without allowing one side to denigrate political debate as 'conflict', which they are trying currently.

Which charter would prevail do you think?

Edited June 25, 2015 by Bannum opinions

[chainarong]

What Thailand really requires is a constitution that prevents the military interfering in politics ,you can have as many road maps as you like , until that is under control nothing will change in Thailand , that's the facts Ma'am that's the facts.

[phoenixdoglover]

The 2015 Thai Government Glossary of Terms

"Road Map": a PR strategy concocted by a Junta and designed to whitewash reality.

Reconciliation: significantly weakening the political opposition.

Reform: consolidating and institutionalizing power gains

Elections: marginalized process for appeasing critics; giving the appearance of democracy (see Delay)

National Reform Committee: former group that overestimated their power and influence

Thai Charter: long and confusing document (see Reform)

Delay: A chronic condition that may be cured only by Certain Events

Certain Events: [may not be defined in the Kingdom of Thailand]