BURNING ISSUE
Submarines for what? We face no maritime threats
SUPALAK GANJANAKHUNDEE
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- THAILAND definitely needs equipment to build up its military strength - but submarines are not the best solution to achieve this objective since the country currently faces no conventional maritime threat.

Of course many Asean countries - like Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam - have a number of submarines to protect their territorial waters and even Myanmar plans to acquire some. But, are these neighbours a true maritime threat to Thailand?

Indonesia, which has two type-209 submarines and plans to acquire a dozen in the near future, is not a case for consideration as the country is far away and has no maritime conflict with Thailand. There is no sign or historical record to suggest that Indonesia has any plan to attack Thailand.

Singapore is among countries in the region which has military strength and modern defence equipment. The city-state has two Archer-class and four Challenger-class submarines, but nobody in the Thai Navy or Army imagines that Singapore would become a military threat to Thailand. Singapore conducts military exercises in Thai territory regularly - but Thai people and the elite have never expressed any distrust about them.

Malaysia, which has an overlapping area also claimed by Thailand on the floor of the Gulf of Thailand, has two Scorpene-class submarines. The two countries have had border difficulties in the past due to violence in the deep South, but it is clear to Thai security agencies that Malaysia is not a maritime threat to Thailand. Relations between Thailand and Malaysia are mostly cooperative, rather than conflict.

Among the Thai military elite, Vietnam is seen as having the potential to pose a maritime threat to Thailand due to overlapping territorial areas in the Gulf of Thailand and competition for influence over the region. Historically, Thailand and Vietnam have competed over the Mekong basin for hundreds of years.

But, history has proven for many years that Hanoi has never had any intention to attack Thailand - although it remains distrusted by the Thai elite, notably the military.

It is true that Vietnam is building up its maritime power these days. Hanoi has six Kilo-class submarines, including some yet to be delivered. It is no secret that Vietnam is in the process of acquiring 50 anti-ship and land attack 3M-14E Klub supersonic cruise missiles for its burgeoning fleet of SSK Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines.

However, the Thai elite knows very well that Vietnam built up its maritime strength because of conflict in the South China Sea, based on tension with its giant neighbour China, which has the world's third largest submarine fleet. Vietnamese submarines cannot be regarded as a threat to Thailand. On the contrary, if Thailand purchased submarines from China, it could pose a challenge to Hanoi since Vietnamese leaders might construe that Thailand would stand with Beijing if they were really in dispute.

On the western coast, India has 15 submarines while immediate neighbour Myanmar has no significant maritime power, let alone submarines. From a security perspective, it is useless for India to pose any threat to Thailand, while New Delhi wants it to be a major bridge to Southeast Asia.

Countries in this region both inside and outside Asean have reached consensus that there will be no major conventional warfare in the near future. Perhaps even half a century from now, countries in the region would not consider waging any wars against each other.

Security threats, if any, in the region at present are non-traditional ones, such as terrorism, piracy, smuggling, trafficking and natural disasters.

It is possible that Thai fishing boats could be sunk by the Indonesian Navy and Coastguard forces, as they illegally fish in the Java and Sumatra seas. Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants are also being trafficked in the Indian Ocean to disembark on the Thai shore. Meanwhile, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in Indonesia might create disaster in Thai territorial waters, both in the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea. All are possible.

The Navy might be commissioned to respond to such threats and need to provide humanitarian assistance for disaster relief. Navy equipment would be utilised for sure, but having submarines for such purposes is not suitable and too expensive.

And to cap it off, a smart navy would never use combat submarines to catch fish.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Submarines-for-what-We-face-no-maritime-threats-30263989.html


-- The Nation 2015-07-08

Plenty of brown envelopes!

It's simple quid pro quo - the Navy supported the coup.

Submarines are a front, it could be anything naval-related that's subject to purchase.

the largest factor forbiding thai submarines is the fact, that the Gulf of Thailand doesn't have any greater depths than 50 meters . . .the average depth is 28 meters.!! Where do they intend to dive?? I don't know if the Thai Navy is planning to ram submarines into the bottoms of the gulf and bury them in sediment, or actually trying to dive.

A thai submarine in the andaman sea is as useless as the balls of the pope.

Maybe they will try to sink their own ships by friendly fire . . .as they did with a destroyer in the short shootout at Koh Chang, against the french. They managed to almost sink their own ship.

For what? for the same reason they have bought this white elephant the aircraft carrier...

for what? so they will form new admiralty and a navel base with all the regalia and pompous

uniforms, admirals and more generals Thailand doesn't need, only for the sub to be moored

pretty soon after with no funds to run them, unless they think that running and maintaining

subs is as cheap as running E-tan from Issan....

the sad part is that Thailand never learn from past mistakes, and keep repeating them

over and over again.....

Submarines for what?

Tinglish at it's finest.

For what? So that we can use / justify the expensive submarine base in Sattahip. The only problem with this of course is that the base would be of no use in a time of conflict as any subs moving towards it would be easy targets from the air as they move through the shallow waters of the Gulf of Thailand. But I'm sure the Navy has a contingency plan for this... probably another carrier to provide air cover !!!

all about milking from the purchase for the naval officials, also now it about face so we got little chance of going back on it regardless of potential damage,

just shows you what we gained from our coup, absolutely nothing, swapped one bunch of thieving obnoxious halfwits for another lot ...

In an article in today's Bangkok Post Uncle P is quoted as saying he wants the sub purchase to go ahead so that other countries in the region will stand in awe of Thailand and that he would rather spend the money on subs than have the 36 billions lying around for the next government to misuse!

For what? So that we can use / justify the expensive submarine base in Sattahip. The only problem with this of course is that the base would be of no use in a time of conflict as any subs moving towards it would be easy targets from the air as they move through the shallow waters of the Gulf of Thailand. But I'm sure the Navy has a contingency plan for this... probably another carrier to provide air cover !!!

they will man all available fishing boats with forced burmese & cambodian labourers, in the bay of Sattahip, armed with slingshots, to help weave of any air attacks. After the last submarine will have been sunk, they will erect a statue of the victorious admiral at Sukhumvit highway for everybody to see how brave the Thai sailors defended their base.

Been there, done that, always seen same same

It's obvious why Thailand needs subs.

Let's face it, everyone from the police captains cleaner seem to have parachutist wings, so now they can also display a submariners badge.

Reminds me of being in the Cub Scouts really.

In an article in today's Bangkok Post Uncle P is quoted as saying he wants the sub purchase to go ahead so that other countries in the region will stand in awe of Thailand and that he would rather spend the money on subs than have the 36 billions lying around for the next government to misuse!

Yes, why leave the money for the next govt to misuse when we can do the job just as well ?

Other countries will ' stand in awe ' of us shouldn't come as any surprise and typifies the national attitude even if face has to cost an unnecessary arm and a leg.

Thailand getting Subs,is a terrible accident waiting to happen.

regards worgeordie

Toys for the boys!!

Navy supports coup, so now it is pay back time.

Also Thai government want to keep China sweet, so buys subs from them.

Just another white elephant. TOTAL WASTE OF MONEY.

I called a friend who seems to be 'in the know' and he told me that the PM is somewhat sympathetic in public, so as not to insult the Admirals, but there just isn't that kind of money in the budget to give them. Prayut has already committed to spending trillions on dual-track fast freight/passenger lines and flood prevention projects and there are more than a few promises he's made to fund this or that. He did not budget for these submarines and he is stalling for time hoping the Navy will withdraw their request so that everyone can save face. I'm thinking this purchase will not happen with this current government.

.

It's obvious why Thailand needs subs.

Let's face it, everyone from the police captains cleaner seem to have parachutist wings, so now they can also display a submariners badge.

Reminds me of being in the Cub Scouts really.

the 'sunk into 25 meters depth' bravery medal with glitter and stripes. lol !!

If Thai Army will maintain their subs as well as they maintain their Bell UHD's, there is food for newspapers

thanks, rametindallas. Very enlightening.

The railway renovation is much more important than the sinking of a few submarines in the 25 metre deep Gulf of Bangkok

all about milking from the purchase for the naval officials, also now it about face so we got little chance of going back on it regardless of potential damage,

just shows you what we gained from our coup, absolutely nothing, swapped one bunch of thieving obnoxious halfwits for another lot ...

"what we gained from our coup,"

What did you expect.

"our" coup?

Sort of indicative of a political mindset, isn't it.

" swapped one bunch of thieving obnoxious halfwits for another lot "

But how they were swapped a big difference.

If this were true, and not just another concurrence with the anti-democrat "anti-politician ideology" which it is, at least the people could only blame themselves, and set it right the next election.

To put them all in the same basket doesn't make sense.

It's true Thailand faces no maritime threat, but then neither does it face any overland threat. None of its neighbors pose any credible military threat at all. It's not clear why Thailand needs a military at all. Perhaps they should go the route of Costa Rica and just abolish it.

Spending such money is probably not for defense needs but rather to keep the Chinese military and govt on the side of the Thai, if any hostilities should arise in SE Asia. Also, most likely the subs will be fully outfitted to send all communications directly to BK and Beijing.

Plenty of room here for major league graft and corruption, so press on with speed.

thailand does not need some nucleair weapons to defend their rice fields ?

I think the money would e better spent on fixing collasped roads and water management, then again the navy cheifs need to be rewarded so sub it is and skimming for everyone

Submarines for what?

Tinglish at it's finest.

And, regrettably, yours isn't perfect either ... :-)

Hey, Mr. PM - You don't need subs. Nobody WANTS your country.

Besides, isn't this supposed to be an interim government who's sole purpose is to establish a democratic republic?

The PM said rather then let politic waste the money later on it is better to buy the sub's now and would make other countries respect Thailand more. See today's papers. I think he really means to say borrow the money now.

Gee - I think if half the schools in Thailand even had a real phone and internet with the cable that money would buy and the towns it would give real connection to also would get more respect from the outside world then this. No 3g etc is not real internet the wireless solution does not connect people and it cost too damn much - it is for people that already have real internet at home or school and not a replacement but a poor substitute for a connection they don't have - Does he have any idea what the real world is like today.

First of all if you want respect built your own sub and learn to track and kill them first. What is the point of simply owning a few slow targets with Thai hull numbers you can't even repair it properly.

Dear PM; To spend the money on infrastructure all you have to do is say - yes and do it - it is not like anyone will vote you out of office.

thailand does not need some nucleair weapons to defend their rice fields ?

it does !

They plan to pilot these babies with bus drivers...and crash them into enemy ships.

I am about to revert this edit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_in_Royal_Thai_Navy

The last two edits has added these 3 subs as on order already.

EDIT: Reverted it... what a junk edit

Fantastic article with a little humor thrown in.

"...And to cap it off, a smart navy would never use combat submarines to catch fish..."

6 Admirals, not enough ships to go around.