Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?

[cclub75]

Prices haven't dropped a cent as people aren't stupid enough to sell their condo's when their is no real panic.

Let's see what the birdie says come June. I'll go for a massive 14.75% increase

It's not about stupidity. It's about necessity.

When you have no choice, like for instance (let's pick up...)... let say Goldman, Citygroup that write off dozen of billions of USD... well you don't do it because you're stupid. But because you don't have another solution.

So, i think you can call all the birds you want for june... But with the oil crisis, the currency crisis (great imbalances, USD falling), the financial crisis (I mean just peruse the news since friday in the US, it's mind boggling)... You're surely going to loose your bet.

What do you say ? Thailand with its new super democratic elected and efficient government is likely to avoid the fall out of a crisis in the US ? Suuuuure, as they like to say here...

Edited November 5, 2007 by cclub75

[pkrv]

It is interesting to revisit these threads - On paper, and I reinforce that statement - 50% up for me.

[quiksilva]

What do you say ? Thailand with its new super democratic elected and efficient government is likely to avoid the fall out of a crisis in the US ? Suuuuure, as they like to say here...

What effect did the last US crisis have on Thailand?

[merlion]

What do you say ? Thailand with its new super democratic elected and efficient government is likely to avoid the fall out of a crisis in the US ? Suuuuure, as they like to say here...

What effect did the last US crisis have on Thailand?

Property prices will go up for sure.

[VegasVic]

Prices haven't dropped a cent as people aren't stupid enough to sell their condo's when their is no real panic.

Let's see what the birdie says come June. I'll go for a massive 14.75% increase

It's not about stupidity. It's about necessity.

When you have no choice, like for instance (let's pick up...)... let say Goldman, Citygroup that write off dozen of billions of USD... well you don't do it because you're stupid. But because you don't have another solution.

So, i think you can call all the birds you want for june... But with the oil crisis, the currency crisis (great imbalances, USD falling), the financial crisis (I mean just peruse the news since friday in the US, it's mind boggling)... You're surely going to loose your bet.

What do you say ? Thailand with its new super democratic elected and efficient government is likely to avoid the fall out of a crisis in the US ? Suuuuure, as they like to say here...

Cclub, Goldman, Citi, et al write down those billions because of mark to market accounting regulations in the states, those are not "real losses" they simply relect the tight market for all the CDO's and such that they have on their books. At some time in the future when this clears many of those CDO's will recognize their actual value and will then be shown as a profit for the financial firms. As for real estate values in BKK, its hard to believe that they will rise in the short term, but then again I am not an expert in BKK real estate. Best of luck to all those in Thailand whose lives have been rocked by inflation, I hope the U.S. will soon drop its ethynol policy and and as commodity prices drop the inflation will moderate, and the strengthening dollar in the second half of the year should help to put downward pressure on oil prices and take much of the speculative pricing out of black gold.

[YoungFarang13]

im sure prices rise long term. maybe slow periods but it will keep rising because its too cheap compared with the rest of asia.

the problem i have with bangkok condo market is that the stuff that gets passed off as "grade A" on this forum is, imho, pretty crappy. many of these 90-100k/m2 projects have the absolute simplest and cheapest interiors. it would not come close to passing as grade A in HK, Macau or Singapore... but thats just my opinion.

[PadThaiGuy]

Some property in the USA has dropped 20%- 30%- 50%.

Say it can't happen here?

10 years ago, premium places were selling for 50,000/meter. Now, selling for 135,000/meter in Bangkok.

That's too much for Thailand.

I'm told the developers are into these projects at 65,000/meter.

Look for more realistic prices in the next year or two.

[YoungFarang13]

premium places, like soi 24, rajdamari are selling for 180-200/m2

[Bizz]

Unless you see hyper inflation interests over 10% they will rise.

THIS THREAD IS ABOUT DREAMERS dream on

[siddv]

Lets see. Japan announces that Panasonic will cut 15,000 jobs and close 27 plants!!!!!!!!1 Yahoooo. Lets back our bags and take a holiday in Thailand honey!!!!! Not much impact I suppose. Hey honey our retirement account just lost 50% in value..maybe we better get on with those plans for the vacation home in Phuket this year.....Hey honey....business is just so freaking hot right now I cant make that April trip this year and wine and dine all your university friends this go around....yea.. not much impact.......

[thaihome]

Unless you see hyper inflation interests over 10% they will rise.

THIS THREAD IS ABOUT DREAMERS dream on

This thread was started in Sept 2006 and was discussing a two year window from that date. Would seem that some 44% of the respondents were wrong that price would decrease in the two year window (Sept 2006 to Sept 2008). To my knowledge prices did not go down during that time, and in fact increased significantly.

If you want to start a new thread discussing a two year window from now, feel free. But the starting point is prices now, not in 2006.

TH

Edited February 5, 2009 by thaihome

[midas]

Unless you see hyper inflation interests over 10% they will rise.

THIS THREAD IS ABOUT DREAMERS dream on

This thread was started in Sept 2006 and was discussing a two year window from that date. Would seem that some 44% of the respondents were wrong that price would decrease in the two year window (Sept 2006 to Sept 2008). To my knowledge prices did not go down during that time, and in fact increased significantly.

If you want to start a new thread discussing a two year window from now, feel free. But the starting point is prices now, not in 2006.

TH

thaihome I would have thought that it is abundantly clear even to someone like you that the

44% of the respondents who you say were wrong in their predictions made their forecasts

based on the function of normal markets -no one had any idea

that governments would indulge in such lavish expenditure on bailouts that will only

postpone the inevitable so I think it's perfectly fine to keep this thread alive

[thaihome]

To me all this thread does is reinforce the fact that if you make an economic forecast and stick to it, you get to be right at least once. Congratulations.

But, what 44% of the people in this 2006 thread was saying was to buy a condo at that time was a mistake because prices were going to drop within the next two years. The fact remains, that prices did not drop, and the people who bought at that time either saved money if they bought not as an investment but as a place to live, or if they bought as an investment they have still made money as prices have yet to drop below 2006 levels.

Again, I think a new thread forecasting prices from now is a good thing, but this one is dead and a lot of people were wrong and should be given another chance to sing the same refrain and maybe they get to be right this time.

TH

[pkrv]

To me all this thread does is reinforce the fact that if you make an economic forecast and stick to it, you get to be right at least once. Congratulations.

But, what 44% of the people in this 2006 thread was saying was to buy a condo at that time was a mistake because prices were going to drop within the next two years. The fact remains, that prices did not drop, and the people who bought at that time either saved money if they bought not as an investment but as a place to live, or if they bought as an investment they have still made money as prices have yet to drop below 2006 levels.

Again, I think a new thread forecasting prices from now is a good thing, but this one is dead and a lot of people were wrong and should be given another chance to sing the same refrain and maybe they get to be right this time.

TH

Good post TH - thanks. BTW the answer (for me) was not one of the options. Taking into account FX movements for GBPTHB= it is sort of more like 115% in my home currency. And the true answers will be all over the place depending on where you bought and the country you are from.

Yes I agree time for a new thread.

[hhgz]

unclefrank predicts a 50% drop in price.

[Bizz]

unclefrank predicts a 50% drop in price.

Can uncle frank print money? If prices are to drop there will have to be a huge interest rate rise which is unlikely as this will fuel hyperinflation.

With Thailand having reserves of 110+billion $ that is unlikely in the forcible future.

Even the Thais have learnt by their past mistakes. 1997.

To be totally honest id love if condo prices dropped by 50% but then you have to look at the fundamentals and also the culture.

Ah well dream on.

[yabaaaa]

Im curious if the banks pay crap interest and condo price might fall where will Thais put their cash?

[midas]

Im curious if the banks pay crap interest and condo price might fall where will Thais put their cash?

Aha..............Thais can just buy huge tracts of land or land and buildings anywhere in and sit on it..now that market would be interesting..............

A single farang doesnt have that choice..............

[pkrv]

Im curious if the banks pay crap interest and condo price might fall where will Thais put their cash?

Aha..............Thais can just buy huge tracts of land or land and buildings anywhere in and sit on it..now that market would be interesting..............

A single farang doesnt have that choice..............

midas - Ah a good post - I agree the thing to look for is what you can't do. So for example you can't use a UK pension to do this either. We are simply slaves to the fractional reserve system and those who own it. IMO best bet Farang quota freehold condo in Thailand ];-)

[yabaaaa]

Lets see. Japan announces that Panasonic will cut 15,000 jobs and close 27 plants!!!!!!!!1 Yahoooo. Lets back our bags and take a holiday in Thailand honey!!!!! Not much impact I suppose. Hey honey our retirement account just lost 50% in value..maybe we better get on with those plans for the vacation home in Phuket this year.....Hey honey....business is just so freaking hot right now I cant make that April trip this year and wine and dine all your university friends this go around....yea.. not much impact.......

Hey honey its so expensive in Japan now to holiday, lets go where it aint expensive..................????

[yabaaaa]

Im curious if the banks pay crap interest and condo price might fall where will Thais put their cash?

Aha..............Thais can just buy huge tracts of land or land and buildings anywhere in and sit on it..now that market would be interesting..............

A single farang doesnt have that choice..............

midas - Ah a good post - I agree the thing to look for is what you can't do. So for example you can't use a UK pension to do this either. We are simply slaves to the fractional reserve system and those who own it. IMO best bet Farang quota freehold condo in Thailand ];-)

Ah I see the penny dropped then, I dont see prices coming down. But what do I know.

[midas]

Im curious if the banks pay crap interest and condo price might fall where will Thais put their cash?

Aha..............Thais can just buy huge tracts of land or land and buildings anywhere in and sit on it..now that market would be interesting..............

A single farang doesnt have that choice..............

midas - Ah a good post - I agree the thing to look for is what you can't do. So for example you can't use a UK pension to do this either. We are simply slaves to the fractional reserve system and those who own it. IMO best bet Farang quota freehold condo in Thailand ];-)

Ah I see the penny dropped then, I dont see prices coming down. But what do I know.

pkrv and yabaaa - yes indeed but things dont look good for the Fractional Reserve Banking system.

Maybe you are right- the value of condo's may not come down but perhaps we will be

measuring the value of condo's in terms of bags of rice................?

The Wall Street Ponzi Scheme Called Fractional Reserve Banking

Ellen Brown,

the New Yorker:

Bernie Madoff showed us how it was done: you induce many investors to invest their money, promising steady above-market returns; and you deliver – at least on paper. When your clients check their accounts, they see that their investments have indeed increased by the promised amount.

A Ponzi scheme is a form of pyramid scheme in which earlier investors are paid with the money of later investors rather than from real profits. The perpetuation of the scheme requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors in order to keep it going. Charles Ponzi was an engaging Boston ex-convict who defrauded investors out of $6 million in the 1920s by promising them a 400 percent return on redeemed postal reply coupons. When he finally could not pay, the scam earned him ten years in jail; and Bernie Madoff is likely to wind up there as well.

Most people are not involved in illegal Ponzi schemes, but we do keep our money in accounts that are tallied on computer screens rather than in stacks of coins or paper bills. How do we know that when we demand our money from our bank or broker that the funds will be there? The fact that banks are subject to “runs” (recall Northern Rock, Indymac and Washington Mutual) suggests that all may not be as it seems on our online screens. Banks themselves are involved in a sort of Ponzi scheme, one that has been perpetuated for hundreds of years. What distinguishes the legal scheme known as “fractional reserve” lending from the illegal schemes of Bernie Madoff and his ilk is that the bankers’ scheme is protected by government charter and backstopped with government funds. At last count, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury had committed $8.5 trillion to bailing out the banks from their follies.

1 By comparison, M2, the largest measure of the money supply now reported by the Federal Reserve, was just under $8 trillion in December 2008.

2 The sheer size of the bailout efforts indicates that the banking scheme has reached its mathematical limits and needs to be superseded by something more sustainable

Edited February 11, 2009 by midas

[pkrv]

pkrv and yabaaa - yes indeed but things dont look good for the Fractional Reserve Banking system.

Maybe you are right- the value of condo's may not come down but perhaps we will be

measuring the value of condo's in terms of bags of rice................?

Unfortunately not on the menu. We must make do.

Edited February 11, 2009 by pkrv

[zorro1]

I bought into trendy condo sukhumvit 13 around 18 months ago and was one of the first to move in. the last unit sold 2 months ago for 28,000bht/sqm more Than I paid, one floor down. The building is fully sold out. I think that may answer a few questions

I have also purchased another in a different building.

[midas]

I bought into trendy condo sukhumvit 13 around 18 months ago and was one of the first to move in. the last unit sold 2 months ago for 28,000bht/sqm more Than I paid, one floor down. The building is fully sold out. I think that may answer a few questions

I have also purchased another in a different building.

Well there are definitely some uncharacteristic things happening in the

rental market-and such a huge disconnect in these 2 markets ( i.e. sale prices and rents )

cannot go on indefinitely ?

I am referring to the experience of someone I know living and working in Bangkok

who the weekend before last went hunting for a new condominium to rent.

He said there were 6 new fully furnished new condominiums in one building for rent by 6 different Thai owners

offered through the juristic persons office. He then contacted each owner separately

and arranged to hold six inspections one after the other the Sunday before last at 30 minute intervals.

His remarks to me were even during the inspection there was definitely a sense of anxiety if not desperation

by most of the owners and a feeling he said that not many people were looking.

Next day he submitted e-mail offers to all 6 owners and submitted offers

he said that were a little " tongue in cheek " to test the market and with a substantially reduced

rent from that being asked ( i.e. 25%+ ).

The following day he had already been contacted by 5 of the 6 owners

and unbelievably in three different cases the owners immediately accepted

his offer. This is definitely not characteristic of Thai people and he was

taken back because he didn't even expect to achieve this in one let alone three.

The situation with the remaining three is that another two owners came back with

counter offers still with substantial reductions and one came back with a somewhat

angry response.

But as we know there is a significant time lag in the property market and as far as the demand

side of the equation is concerned -I think this shows there is something changing even if it

slow to reveal itself ? Thais dont usually drop their pants like this

[zorro1]

Midas, you may find they had INCREASED the rent by 25% to start with due to lack of interest, we all know what they do when things are quite, they pump up the price. So in reality he is getting market value. 2 sides to every coin however this thread really is about property prices and not rent. I don't see any fire sales yet and we must be fairly close to the bottom of the global crisis

[midas]

Midas, you may find they had INCREASED the rent by 25% to start with due to lack of interest, we all know what they do when things are quite, they pump up the price. So in reality he is getting market value. 2 sides to every coin however this thread really is about property prices and not rent. I don't see any fire sales yet and we must be fairly close to the bottom of the global crisis

Oh I see -according to your "theory " - 6 owners conspired to increase their asking rent simultaneously by 25 percent -

- no I can see that happening in six separate cases somehow

And incidentally even the asking rent reflected about a 6% return ( he already found out from the sales office

how much they have been sold for ) which our resident property expert quicksliva

agreed in another thread is the " norm" - so your argument is kind of " flawed ".

And when you say " this thread really is about property prices and not rent." ...........

If you don't see the importance of the interconnection between property prices and rents acheiveable zorro then I don't think you should be

investing in property because it is obviously above over your head.

As your final comment- it doesn't even merit a response other than I suggest you spend a little time reading what is really happening

around the world in the " Jobs, economy, banking, business, investment in Thailand " thread

[zorro1]

Midas

[/quot

"zorro then I don't think you should be

investing in property because it is obviously above over your head. "

I don't take advice from anybody on property purchase especially from anybody on Thai Visa and I don't like the tone of your reply. I do my own research. Your "friend" I think is telling you a few porkies , everyone likes to Bragg about a good deal. My view of near the bottom is 1-3 years so don't make assumptions. The whole world has been in or close to a recession for years already so I suggest that get yourself up to date. Anyway I'M off and back to trading my portfolio, bhp at 22 and rio at 35. Why are they rising? because the markets are forward thinking the Dow should be well below 7000 but it isn't, anyway off topic re Property prices

why don't you start a separate thread on rentals ?? cheerio

Edited February 11, 2009 by zorro1

[midas]

Midas

[/quot

"zorro then I don't think you should be

investing in property because it is obviously above over your head. "

I don't take advice from anybody on property purchase especially for anybody on Thai Visa and I don't like the tone of your reply. I do my own research. Your "friend" I think is telling you a few porkies , everyone likes to Bragg about a good deal. My view of near the bottom is 1-3 years so don't make assumptions. The whole world has been in or close to a recession for years already so I suggest that get yourself up to date. Anyway I'M off and back to trading my portfolio, bhp at 22 and rio at 35. Why are they rising? because the markets are forward thinking the Dow should be well below 7000 but it isn't, anyway off topic re Property prices

why don't start a separate thread on rentals ?? cheerio

I have sufficient confidence in the substance and truth of what my friend has told me because he has no

reason to " tell porkie " - he's not a real estate agent you see

The Dow will go to at least 4500 but some pessimists think it will be closer to 3000.

Your are correct that this is not the appropriate forum for discussing the Depression but I am curious

to know when you engage in share trading whether you totally ignore the prospect of potential dividend

payments also. It sounds to me like you just " shoot from the hip "

[Naam]

Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?

sure they will