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Posted
Business News | Mon Jul 20, 2015




Gold slide helps erase half of gains from 12-yr bull run, $1000/ounce on horizon

LONDON | BY JAN HARVEY


This is largely Chinese selling - raising money to support its stock market. As the Chinese economy seriously falters, I think this could go lower.


??


Cheers

Posted

I was trying to persuade my wife to cut her losses (she bought when the price was high) and sell last week. She thinks it will go up, not likely. When you look at how much Gold has risen since 2006, once it falls through $1000 there will be a panic. I see it dropping below $850

Posted

Everything points to it being Chinese selling. The significant drop on Monday morning came as the Chinese markets opened and the Yuan took a leap at exactly the same time.

The Chinese are paving the way for full convertibility of the Yuan, must happen before the IMF votes in October. Over the last 6 months the experts have been predicting a hit on the dollar as the Yuan gained strength, looks like they have been outwitted by the Fed at the expense of gold.

Posted

I was trying to persuade my wife to cut her losses (she bought when the price was high) and sell last week. She thinks it will go up, not likely. When you look at how much Gold has risen since 2006, once it falls through $1000 there will be a panic. I see it dropping below $850

yes gold down to 800 and below and then there'll still be no reason to buy it. The run which never was justified in the first place is over. Some seasonal and cyclic influences might create a few hickups but the way is down.

Posted

I bought around 20 ounces at $1200, damn, im on the losing side.

Look on the bright side...it could have been worst if you bought in mid 2011 when gold reached it's peak of around $1837.....been on a long term downward trend since. Wonder if this 4 year downward trend it been on since mid 2011 will continue as long as its 9 year upward trend from 2002 to mid 2011..

post-55970-0-83188200-1437537485_thumb.j

Posted

Alot of my friends bought gold in 2012 on bad advice. I don't think it will go below $600, probably around $700-800. And there will be world situations at some point to make it a safe haven and rise again.

Posted

Everything points to it being Chinese selling. The significant drop on Monday morning came as the Chinese markets opened and the Yuan took a leap at exactly the same time.

The Chinese are paving the way for full convertibility of the Yuan, must happen before the IMF votes in October. Over the last 6 months the experts have been predicting a hit on the dollar as the Yuan gained strength, looks like they have been outwitted by the Fed at the expense of gold.

Altho its been pretty flat against the dollar since april - and sterling would seem to be a safer bet short term

Posted

Business News | Mon Jul 20, 2015

Reuters

Gold slide helps erase half of gains from 12-yr bull run, $1000/ounce on horizon

LONDON | BY JAN HARVEY

This is largely Chinese selling - raising money to support its stock market. As the Chinese economy seriously falters, I think this could go lower.

??

Cheers

Not sure what information you have that Gold is falling because Chinese are selling. Can you elaborate more?

My view is Gold is going lower because expectations for higher interest rates and a stronger dollar are increasing. So people prefer the $ than Gold. Also all metals have been selling off due to lack of demand.

Posted

Everything points to it being Chinese selling. The significant drop on Monday morning came as the Chinese markets opened and the Yuan took a leap at exactly the same time.

The Chinese are paving the way for full convertibility of the Yuan, must happen before the IMF votes in October. Over the last 6 months the experts have been predicting a hit on the dollar as the Yuan gained strength, looks like they have been outwitted by the Fed at the expense of gold.

Altho its been pretty flat against the dollar since april

Yes, because both have been gaining strength over the last couple of months. A few days ago the dollar index was back up about 98.

We watch the Yuan closely because of the university fees. Back in March when the IMF announced that the Chinese had requested to join the SDR I had a feeling it would rise. We exchanged enough to cover this years fees, it was 5.17 then and it is 5.52 today. Not looking good for next year.

Posted

Business News | Mon Jul 20, 2015

Reuters

Gold slide helps erase half of gains from 12-yr bull run, $1000/ounce on horizon

LONDON | BY JAN HARVEY

This is largely Chinese selling - raising money to support its stock market. As the Chinese economy seriously falters, I think this could go lower.

??

Cheers

Not sure what information you have that Gold is falling because Chinese are selling. Can you elaborate more?

My view is Gold is going lower because expectations for higher interest rates and a stronger dollar are increasing. So people prefer the $ than Gold. Also all metals have been selling off due to lack of demand.

China dumped a huge amount of gold on the market and investors are spooked
Jul. 20, 2015, 5:43 AM Business Insider
Gold prices hit five-year low on Chinese sell-off
After China dumps gold, don't count on India to come to the rescue, say traders
By Reuters | 21 Jul, 2015, 08.27PM IST
Gold hits 5-year low under $1,100 on Chinese selling
Monday, 20 Jul 2015 | 2:00 PM ET Reuters
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
China is struggling to raise money to support its stock market. It has ordered big traders not to sell and has been buying large amounts of stock. China isn't cash rich at all...
Posted

Not sure what information you have that Gold is falling because Chinese are selling. Can you elaborate more?

My view is Gold is going lower because expectations for higher interest rates and a stronger dollar are increasing. So people prefer the $ than Gold. Also all metals have been selling off due to lack of demand.

One more thing. The price of gold and other metals is already priced into Fed expectations and has been for at least 60 days. It's commonly accepted that the Fed is going to increase interest rates. The actual increase, if it happens, shouldn't affect much now.

Cheers.

Posted

Business News | Mon Jul 20, 2015

Reuters

Gold slide helps erase half of gains from 12-yr bull run, $1000/ounce on horizon

LONDON | BY JAN HARVEY

This is largely Chinese selling - raising money to support its stock market. As the Chinese economy seriously falters, I think this could go lower.

??

Cheers

Not sure what information you have that Gold is falling because Chinese are selling. Can you elaborate more?

My view is Gold is going lower because expectations for higher interest rates and a stronger dollar are increasing. So people prefer the $ than Gold. Also all metals have been selling off due to lack of demand.

China dumped a huge amount of gold on the market and investors are spooked
Jul. 20, 2015, 5:43 AM Business Insider
Gold prices hit five-year low on Chinese sell-off
After China dumps gold, don't count on India to come to the rescue, say traders
By Reuters | 21 Jul, 2015, 08.27PM IST
Gold hits 5-year low under $1,100 on Chinese selling
Monday, 20 Jul 2015 | 2:00 PM ET Reuters
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
China is struggling to raise money to support its stock market. It has ordered big traders not to sell and has been buying large amounts of stock. China isn't cash rich at all...

The PBoC published their Gold holdings, that's all. And it was below market expectations, significantly below that. That's what happened. Of course some people may have sold, and some may have bought Gold, as usual.

Also the PBoC and Chinese government still have plenty of tools in their box to stimulate the economy or do other things, saying that they don't have cash is just wrong.

Posted

What is happening in China echoes what some girls in Thailand have to do when the rent is due, namely sell or pawn their gold necklaces etc.

Got Corridor, Will Travel

Across Eurasia, BRICS nations are moving on integration projects. A developing Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic corridor is a typical example. It is now being reconfigured as a multilane highway between India and China. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia are developing a transportation corridor from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to the Caspian Sea and the Volga River. Azerbaijan will be connected to the Caspian part of this corridor, while India is planning to use Iran’s southern ports to improve its access to Russia and Central Asia. Now, add in a maritime corridor that will stretch from the Indian city of Mumbai to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas and then on to the southern Russian city of Astrakhan. And this just scratches the surface of the planning underway.

Years ago, Vladimir Putin suggested that there could be a “Greater Europe” stretching from Lisbon, Portugal, on the Atlantic to the Russian city of Vladivostok on the Pacific. The EU, under Washington’s thumb, ignored him. Then the Chinese started dreaming about and planning new Silk Roads that would, in reverse Marco Polo fashion, extend from Shanghai to Venice (and then on to Berlin).

Thanks to a set of cross-pollinating political institutions, investment funds, development banks, financial systems, and infrastructure projects that, to date, remain largely under Washington’s radar, a free-trade Eurasian heartland is being born. It will someday link China and Russia to Europe, Southwest Asia, and even Africa. It promises to be an astounding development. Keep your eyes, if you can, on the accumulating facts on the ground, even if they are rarely covered in the American media. They represent the New Great -- emphasis on that word -- Game in Eurasia.

BY ASIA UNHEDGED on

JULY 22, 2015

in ASIA UNHEDGED, CHINA(<>

The People’s Bank of China injected a combined $31 billion into two policy banks linked to the New Silk Road project, said inside sources.

Posted

http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-07-24/Despite-Lower-Prices-Gold-Still-Not-Cheap-Enough-Deutsche-Bank.html

""Updating this analysis today reveals fair value has now dropped further and stands at USD785/oz,” they noted.

The analysts compared gold prices to the S&P 500 as well as inflation measures in order to assess price points that would reflect the metal's value with its historical averages. "Another route to assess whether the move in the gold price over recent months is overdone is to consider gold relative to the S&P500,” they said. “[T]o bring gold prices back towards its 1970-2014 average of 0.53x would require gold prices falling to USD935/oz."

Looking at premiums between bullion and gold financial assets over the longer term, the analysts suggested that they are too high right now when compared to historical averages. Adjusting gold prices by the U.S. PPI and CPI, we find that in real terms gold is still trading significantly above its long run historical average,” they said. "Indeed for gold to eliminate its premium in real terms it would need to fall to USD725/oz and USD775/oz on a PPI and CPI adjusted basis respectively to bring gold back to its 1970-2014 average.”

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