Thai baht may drop further this week

[chiang mai]

Agreed, the lower the baht goes, the worse inflation here will be in around six months time more, expect the price of imported goods to skyrocket and never return to earth. Possibly, lowered oil costs may help some of that strain but I have to ask, has anyone seen the price of consumer goods reduce since the price of oil crashed a few months back (except the price of petroleum products), no, I didn't think so.

[Muirton]

Grateful the U.S. elected a President capable of getting the U.S. economy back on track after it was damaged so much by the Cheney administration.

I got a pay raise last week, and probably another next week

Thank you Mr. President!.

You have any evidence for this ?

... the US is as broke as it can be [just like Europe] and an economic recovery is nowhere in sight !!!

"the US is as broke as it can be". You need to supply us with a technical definition of "broke" for your opinion to have meaning.

[yuv06]

Agreed, the lower the baht goes, the worse inflation here will be in around six months time more, expect the price of imported goods to skyrocket and never return to earth. Possibly, lowered oil costs may help some of that strain but I have to ask, has anyone seen the price of consumer goods reduce since the price of oil crashed a few months back (except the price of petroleum products), no, I didn't think so.

But they released the CPI today still very low http://uk.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/thailand-cpi--1.05-vs.--0.98-forecast-62216

Here's for around the region http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/08/03/asia-economy-cpi-idINL3N0ZN26020150803?rpc=401

[roamer]

Grateful the U.S. elected a President capable of getting the U.S. economy back on track after it was damaged so much by the Cheney administration.

I got a pay raise last week, and probably another next week

Thank you Mr. President!.

US Gvt is printing !

They have 3 times more gvt loans than Europe !!

And no sight that they will ever pay back;

They already focusing on new spending in expanding arabic war to Turkey !!

, Sinai and Agypt maybee too !!

A child might marvel at the balloon as it expands and goes higher and higher but only adults realize the balloon will soon pop. Its a basic law.

If we are going to wonder at the laws of physics we should wonder at the Thai baht balloon, full of hot air and still coming down.

[chiang mai]

Agreed, the lower the baht goes, the worse inflation here will be in around six months time more, expect the price of imported goods to skyrocket and never return to earth. Possibly, lowered oil costs may help some of that strain but I have to ask, has anyone seen the price of consumer goods reduce since the price of oil crashed a few months back (except the price of petroleum products), no, I didn't think so.

But they released the CPI today still very low http://uk.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/thailand-cpi--1.05-vs.--0.98-forecast-62216

Here's for around the region http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/08/03/asia-economy-cpi-idINL3N0ZN26020150803?rpc=401

Inflation in Thailand is different things to different groups, despite the drop in the oil price (which has caused the lowered CPI figures, if they are to be believed and are accurate anyway), expat inflation is likely to continue to be in excess of 5% for many expats who cherish imported goods. It might perhaps be more accurate, in light of the oil price decline, to calculate inflation minus the price of petroleum products.

[zziffle]

"Thai stocks are likely to fluctuate this week due to domestic and external factors."

Am I the only one who cracked up when reading this opening sentence of the news story? Although I do agree that its claim is accurate. And for next week, and the week after, and the week after that, ....

[Benmart]

Grateful the U.S. elected a President capable of getting the U.S. economy back on track after it was damaged so much by the Cheney administration.

I got a pay raise last week, and probably another next week

Thank you Mr. President!.

US Gvt is printing !

They have 3 times more gvt loans than Europe !!

And no sight that they will ever pay back;

They already focusing on new spending in expanding arabic war to Turkey !!

, Sinai and Agypt maybee too !!

Perhaps one should look to China or Russia to sort out the world monetary problems. Back to the subject. I doubt the Thai government can guarantee that the Baht will not go past the 35 Baht mark as stated in the original article. Nothing is guaranteed, with the exception that we all will die.

[yuv06]

Agreed, the lower the baht goes, the worse inflation here will be in around six months time more, expect the price of imported goods to skyrocket and never return to earth. Possibly, lowered oil costs may help some of that strain but I have to ask, has anyone seen the price of consumer goods reduce since the price of oil crashed a few months back (except the price of petroleum products), no, I didn't think so.

But they released the CPI today still very low http://uk.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/thailand-cpi--1.05-vs.--0.98-forecast-62216

Here's for around the region http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/08/03/asia-economy-cpi-idINL3N0ZN26020150803?rpc=401

Inflation in Thailand is different things to different groups, despite the drop in the oil price (which has caused the lowered CPI figures, if they are to be believed and are accurate anyway), expat inflation is likely to continue to be in excess of 5% for many expats who cherish imported goods. It might perhaps be more accurate, in light of the oil price decline, to calculate inflation minus the price of petroleum products.

The CCI exclude petroleum products (correct me if I'm wrong) http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/consumer-price-index-cpi http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/core-consumer-prices

BOT http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=409&language=ENG

[Robbie Dye]

Sorry Useronthenet but no idea where u get yr info. Pound was 42 last year at one stage and now just below 55 so u are WRONG the good old GBP marches on!

[emilymat]

Won't effect the Europeans or the British expats as currencies there are still weak. Those using USD will only benefit.

GBP is not weak currently and yes, the THB weakness will benefit holders of GBP.

I'm sure we have all learned that exchange rates are a mystery. This one weakens, that one strengthens etc. etc.

I'm just an ordinary UK Joe but have learned that an anticipated increase in interest rates (UK and US) signals a strengthening of the currency.

For years, the UK government, like others, has had this almost zero interest rate and mortgage payers have been over the moon, whereas savers and ex-pats have been the victims.

Mind you, you can hear the squeals from UK exporters already, due to the strength of the pound against the Euro. Wait until interest rates begin to rise, there will be an outcry from mortgage payers, who are already up to the hilt in repayments, whilst here in Thailand we are likely to benefit.

I'm not being critical of hard pressed families in the UK, but the problem for them is that many people have got too used to 0.5% interest rates and think it's the norm and will last for ever. A shock is coming.

Honestly, it's about time we had some good news. In 2006 I remember being able to pay my rent here from the interest of 5% on savings, plus 70 baht to the pound. Those days are not going to return but the wheel is beginning to come, if not full circle, but a few degrees, for borrowers against the savers.

I'm with the other poster who budgets on 50/pound. Somehow, I'm sure the UK government will take steps to stop the strengthening if the outcry from exporters gets loud enough. They are experts at that, both in the Bank of England and Treasury.

Real cynic me!

[lostoday]

The national currencies are getting knocked down little by little the last weeks. Including Euro

In comparison to what gold?

[yuv06]

Inflation target for 2015 to be lowered, due to impact of lower oil prices

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Inflation-target-for-2015-to-be-lowered-due-to-imp-30265809.html?

[ggold]

Won't effect the Europeans or the British expats as currencies there are still weak. Those using USD will only benefit.

That's why the GBP is at about 54 baht to the GBP (exchanged in Thailand) up by about 3 baht since beginning June.

Really glad you know what you are talking about!!!

[chiang mai]

Agreed, the lower the baht goes, the worse inflation here will be in around six months time more, expect the price of imported goods to skyrocket and never return to earth. Possibly, lowered oil costs may help some of that strain but I have to ask, has anyone seen the price of consumer goods reduce since the price of oil crashed a few months back (except the price of petroleum products), no, I didn't think so.

But they released the CPI today still very low http://uk.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/thailand-cpi--1.05-vs.--0.98-forecast-62216

Here's for around the region http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/08/03/asia-economy-cpi-idINL3N0ZN26020150803?rpc=401

Inflation in Thailand is different things to different groups, despite the drop in the oil price (which has caused the lowered CPI figures, if they are to be believed and are accurate anyway), expat inflation is likely to continue to be in excess of 5% for many expats who cherish imported goods. It might perhaps be more accurate, in light of the oil price decline, to calculate inflation minus the price of petroleum products.

The CCI exclude petroleum products (correct me if I'm wrong) http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/consumer-price-index-cpi http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/core-consumer-prices

BOT http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=409&language=ENG

Assuming you mean CPI and not CCI (?) - First of all, which set of figures shall we use, the UK link, tradingeconomics or BOT because they all differ wildly between plus and minus.

And this man, FWIW seems to think Petroleum products are included, albeit he's not the definitive view although I couldn't find one that is!

http://www.managerial-economics-club.com/cpi-in-thailand.html

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts have been removed.

[VIPinthailand]

the USA are not 20t in debt, but over 100t.

don't believe everything they say.

[stoli]

Grateful the U.S. elected a President capable of getting the U.S. economy back on track after it was damaged so much by the Cheney administration.

I got a pay raise last week, and probably another next week

Thank you Mr. President!.

I find it quite amusing that you actually believe there was ever a "Cheney Administration".

[yuv06]

Assuming you mean CPI and not CCI (?) - First of all, which set of figures shall we use, the UK link, tradingeconomics or BOT because they all differ wildly between plus and minus.

And this man, FWIW seems to think Petroleum products are included, albeit he's not the definitive view although I couldn't find one that is!

http://www.managerial-economics-club.com/cpi-in-thailand.html

CCP or CCI it is the Core Consumer Price Index (Line 15 on the BOT report) it is 105.93 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/core-consumer-prices

While the CPI is 106.57

The minus 1.05 is actually the Inflation Rate

[chiang mai]

Assuming you mean CPI and not CCI (?) - First of all, which set of figures shall we use, the UK link, tradingeconomics or BOT because they all differ wildly between plus and minus.

And this man, FWIW seems to think Petroleum products are included, albeit he's not the definitive view although I couldn't find one that is!

http://www.managerial-economics-club.com/cpi-in-thailand.html

CCP or CCI it is the Core Consumer Price Index (Line 15 on the BOT report) it is 105.93 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/core-consumer-prices

While the CPI is 106.57

The minus 1.05 is actually the Inflation Rate

You sure!

http://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/thailand-cpi--1.05-vs.--0.98-forecast-354102

[roamer]

Won't effect the Europeans or the British expats as currencies there are still weak. Those using USD will only benefit.

GBP is not weak currently and yes, the THB weakness will benefit holders of GBP.

I'm sure we have all learned that exchange rates are a mystery. This one weakens, that one strengthens etc. etc.

I'm just an ordinary UK Joe but have learned that an anticipated increase in interest rates (UK and US) signals a strengthening of the currency.

For years, the UK government, like others, has had this almost zero interest rate and mortgage payers have been over the moon, whereas savers and ex-pats have been the victims.

Mind you, you can hear the squeals from UK exporters already, due to the strength of the pound against the Euro. Wait until interest rates begin to rise, there will be an outcry from mortgage payers, who are already up to the hilt in repayments, whilst here in Thailand we are likely to benefit.

I'm not being critical of hard pressed families in the UK, but the problem for them is that many people have got too used to 0.5% interest rates and think it's the norm and will last for ever. A shock is coming.

Honestly, it's about time we had some good news. In 2006 I remember being able to pay my rent here from the interest of 5% on savings, plus 70 baht to the pound. Those days are not going to return but the wheel is beginning to come, if not full circle, but a few degrees, for borrowers against the savers.

I'm with the other poster who budgets on 50/pound. Somehow, I'm sure the UK government will take steps to stop the strengthening if the outcry from exporters gets loud enough. They are experts at that, both in the Bank of England and Treasury.

Real cynic me!

You might be cynical but correct. UK economy too firmly tied to house prices that are close to insanity. Big difference this time is the huge amount of buy-to-let mortgages around where a lot of people will be trying to sell at the prospect of higher rates. Could be a blood bath.

[willyumiii]

Grateful the U.S. elected a President capable of getting the U.S. economy back on track after it was damaged so much by the Cheney administration.

I got a pay raise last week, and probably another next week

Thank you Mr. President!.

Yeah thanks for adding more debt than all the previous presidents combined. U.S. presidents can do little to improve the economy by themselves, but they can sure do a lot to destroy it.

National debt on January 20, 2009 (the day Obama was sworn in) 10.6 trillion

National debt on January 20, 2015 ~18 trillion.

You and I are probably old enough where we don't have to worry about it. Future generations will have to pay it pack. So for borrowing a bunch of money that I'll never have to pay back, thanks Obama. I'd hardly call that fiscal responsibility though.

What future generations will be paying back forever is the and interest paid on loans cost of two never ending wars financed on credit.

War on credit!

GW invented that himself...the first to ever do it!

[VIPinthailand]

how future generation can pay back when no job, no money, no future.?

[carib102]

Grateful the U.S. elected a President capable of getting the U.S. economy back on track after it was damaged so much by the Cheney administration.

I got a pay raise last week, and probably another next week

Thank you Mr. President!.

The President has nothing to do with this. If you're sending thank you cards address them to the Federal Reserve. And get ready for better times as the Fed begins to normalize interest rates. It should bring the USD/THB to 38-41 by the end of 2016.

[mommysboy]

All this talk about the relative merits or otherwise of the US dollar, pound, euro, Mongolian groat, or whatever, should not distract away from the simple contention that the baht has been overvalued for a long time, and looks set for a steep fall due to a number of absolute facts.

[lostoday]

All this talk about the relative merits or otherwise of the US dollar, pound, euro, Mongolian groat, or whatever, should not distract away from the simple contention that the baht has been overvalued for a long time, and looks set for a steep fall due to a number of absolute facts.

Who says? You? So? I've not seen any reports that the Thai baht is overvalued by much. Perhaps you could link some.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed, this is not about Bush or Obama.

[yuv06]

Assuming you mean CPI and not CCI (?) - First of all, which set of figures shall we use, the UK link, tradingeconomics or BOT because they all differ wildly between plus and minus.

And this man, FWIW seems to think Petroleum products are included, albeit he's not the definitive view although I couldn't find one that is!

http://www.managerial-economics-club.com/cpi-in-thailand.html

CCP or CCI it is the Core Consumer Price Index (Line 15 on the BOT report) it is 105.93 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/core-consumer-prices

While the CPI is 106.57

The minus 1.05 is actually the Inflation Rate

You sure!

http://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/thailand-cpi--1.05-vs.--0.98-forecast-354102

Yes 100% http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/core-consumer-prices below graph Thailand Prices Table

[Tassie Norm]

Making my U.S. Dollars look better and better.

Carpe diem

[marquess]

Stronger stable baht please, as that is the currency that I earn my salary in!

[yuv06]

Assuming you mean CPI and not CCI (?) - First of all, which set of figures shall we use, the UK link, tradingeconomics or BOT because they all differ wildly between plus and minus.

And this man, FWIW seems to think Petroleum products are included, albeit he's not the definitive view although I couldn't find one that is!

http://www.managerial-economics-club.com/cpi-in-thailand.html

CCP or CCI it is the Core Consumer Price Index (Line 15 on the BOT report) it is 105.93 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/core-consumer-prices

While the CPI is 106.57

The minus 1.05 is actually the Inflation Rate

You sure!

http://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/thailand-cpi--1.05-vs.--0.98-forecast-354102

Yes 100% http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/core-consumer-prices below graph Thailand Prices Table

If it's like this they have room for another interest rate cut

Edited August 3, 2015 by yuv06