Investor confidence in Thailand at 14-month low

[webfact]

Investor confidence at 14-month low
ERICH PARPART
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- CAPITAL MARKET investor confidence in Thailand has dropped significantly for the coming three months due mainly to the economic slowdown, said the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations (FETCO), prompting it to downgrade the investment conditions from "neutral" to "bearish".

The survey found that the FETCO NIDA investor sentiment for the three months starting in August had dropped to 57.27 from 98.28 in the previous survey.

All groups of investors - foreign institutional, proprietary, retail and domestic institutional - agree that the markets will turn bearish over the next three months.

The index measures the confidence of all four types of investors and ranges from 0-200 points, with lower than 80 bearish, 80-120 neutral and more than 120 bullish.

The confidence of securities firms has dropped by 71.43 per cent, which means it is now at a 14-month low.

There is 28.57 points on the index, indicating an extremely bearish mood, while the confidence of foreign institutional investors experienced the least plunge - 12.5 per cent to stand at 62.5 points.

Investors said contractions is the best place to invest in the next three months and the worst place is steel, while the news having the most positive impact on capital markets is the government's economic measures. The worst news is the current status of the economy.

Amornthep Chawalla, director of the research centre at CIMB Thai, said the economy will continue to recover slowly as the drop in export means it has a chance to expand less than 3 per cent this year.

Domestic consumption is still weak from low purchasing power while the private sector is still waiting for the government's investment in mega-infrastructures projects, meaning the tourism sector is the only hope left for growth in the remaining months of 2015, he added.

Amornthep said the baht has a chance to reach Bt36 per US dollar by the end of the year from the expected strengthening of the dollar but it could appreciate in |the short term from a US interest rate |hike.

He said Thailand's policy interest rate is expected to be maintained at 1.5 per cent for the whole year to support the economy.

"If there is a technical recession, the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee might move to lower the benchmark lending rate once again and that could depreciate the baht even further than expected," he concluded.

The UOB Global Economics and Markets Research team expects the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September while it believes China's stock market roller coaster could continue in August but is unlikely to pose systemic risk to the global financial system.

The research team maintains a neutral allocation on equities on a valuation and a lack of catalysts basis.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Investor-confidence-at-14-month-low-30266305.html


-- The Nation 2015-08-11

[Jimlove]

Really ... A few days ago both Prayut and Minister of Economy (I think it was) were puffing them self up claiming that US investors had lots of confidence in Thailand. Prayut had meetings with 29 BIG US Companies incl. Coca-Cola, GE among others ...

Truth is that Thai economy is falling apart no matter what lies may come out of someones mouth ...

[arrowsdawdle]

The OP obviously missed Ocho's memo that US investors have keen interest in investing under his reign junta.

[sammygood]

14months... is that about the same lenght of the current coup ? you gotta wonder

and saying he did not plan this all in advance

[Srikcir]

"the FETCO NIDA investor sentiment for the three months starting in August had dropped to 57.27 from 98.28 in the previous survey.

But in a recent previous survey:

"Kanate Wangpaichitr, president of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations (Fetco), said the three-month Fetco Nida investor sentiment index edged up 2.64 per cent to 118.64 this month on the improvement of retail investor confidence." The Nation 2015-03-06

So the drop in investor sentiment may be even greater. Or what Wangpaichitr reported had no creditability. Either case shows the Thai economy is in freefall. And the people in charge of the Thaitanic can only see the top of the economic icebergs until the nation smashes into them full speed ahead.

Edited August 11, 2015 by Srikcir

[jesimps]

No matter what spin you try to put on it, investors don't like juntas.

[Cake Monster]

Sure, Prayut meeting with some major International Corperate Investors may float his boat as investment sources for the country.

The reality is that the REALLY major investors such as Pension Funds, Investment Houses Etc are staying away from Thailand.

Thailands willingness to rely upon one major source for most of its output, ( China ) has really placed them in a precarious position, as the Chinese economy is only expanding at a rate of an estimated 2-3% ( according to some analysts ) which will mean a strong contraction in the Thai economy, and because they are in bed with the Chinese, the major investors are pulling funds, as better gains can be made else where.

[Lunchbob]

This is a very good sign if you understand what is happening around the world, etc...a brief period of transition is inevitable.

[lovelomsak]

The confidence of securities firms has dropped by 71.43 per cent, which means it is now at a 14-month low.

I amnot an economic genius but is not 71,43 percent quite a big drop. I also noticed the coup was 14 months ago odd sort of circumstances.

[EricBerg]

Frequent corruption, ever changing rules and regulations... All with one goal: to steal. Things are only slightly better than before Prayuth. One man can only do so much. The cancer of corruption must be fought by many at all levels. Crackdowns must have follow-up. Only heavy punishment can intimidate the bad guys.

But how wil the public react when hearing about the Tarit verdict? Pay thousands after gaining millions and do much much other damage on the side. No jail.

Thailand is in a dead end street and not only economically. Youth is losing confidence in authorities. The policy makers talk and do so much crap that they've lost all credibility. Social media help the people realising what is going on. The main effect is demoralising: All do it, so I myself shouldn't be the fool, that's of no use.

Then how on earth can people expect foreign investors to invest in Thailand? Do they really think those investors are stupid enough to believe all the crap authorities throw out? Incredibly ignorant and selfdestrucive.

Edited August 12, 2015 by EricBerg