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Posted (edited)

Its possible Thailand is heading for a slump altho these are often caused by more than one factor at once. Tourism didn't save Thailand in '97 either.

All the hallmarks are there... a government with their heads in sand, household income vs debt, empty properties, weak global situations etc.

Just needs 'something' to tip it over the edge

Edited by fish fingers
Posted

Its possible Thailand is heading for a slump altho these are often caused by more than one factor at once. Tourism didn't save Thailand in '97 either.

All the hallmarks are there... a government with their heads in sand, household income vs debt, empty properties, weak global situations etc.

Just needs 'something' to tip it over the edge

There werent really any amazing bargains in 97 in the housing market. But if you happened to invest in SET at that time you obviously made a small fortune.

Posted

I saw prices drop 80% in Arizona and Nevada in 2008-2009. I bought a house, a townhouse, and a condo. I noticed the renter cheerleaders kept right on renting, kind of like the people, who refuse to bring over the 800K, and stop lying to the Consulate about their income. They won't do it at 50 THB to the Dollar, either. Value stocks are great, i bought Philip Morris and Pepsi this week, but if you like to get your hands dirty at all, real estate is the best business, and certainly not the oldest profession, but right in between teacher and policeman. A friend of mine visited in 2004, as a first timer. He bought approx. 4 rai in Hua Hin (set up a company). He built and sold 11 houses, the other two rent for 45,000 per month, each. He recently told me that if he had just held the land, and done nothing, he would have a 500% gain. He was willing to get his hands dirty, but also knew the trade. You want to be early to the party....not late, if you want to make real money. I spent about 20,000 USD on an older condo in CNX a few years ago. Some months, like this one, it may be my best investment. I'm getting about 9% return vs. the rent I would pay. Oh, but I can't make the landlord fix everything I break....well apparently, a lot of the renters can't either. I do my own repairs, see that they are done right, and don't have to make calls, and wait all afternoon for someone to come by and tell me what I already know. And, I get the government rate on electric. The barstool experts have been calling for a property crash here for 8 years...I challenge anyone to find a "steal" in a good location.

Posted

Bangkok will always be Bangkok, I don't expect the prices to drop .

You are more likely to get a good deal by taking advantage of an often short lived currency fluctuation in your favor.

Posted

Bangkok will always be Bangkok, I don't expect the prices to drop .

You are more likely to get a good deal by taking advantage of an often short lived currency fluctuation in your favor.

I agree.

For example when the euro was trading 1.50 against the dollar , it was a good time for the euro guys to buy some real estate in the United States.

Some parts in the states suffered drastic losses in the recession, but in manhattan the prices dropped by 10-15% at most, and this was during the worst recession of the last 50 years.

That said I think Bangkok is the Manhattan of Thailand, prices might drop in nakhon nowhere etc, but Bangkok will always be Bangkok.

Posted

The Canadians were buying in droves during the crash (in the US)...not only were they getting crash prices, but they were getting parity, too. Agreed about the extra prime real estate. My family is in the DC area...exurbs dropped 50%, complete with granite counters and stainless steel appliances, meanwhile 90 year old houses in mostly original condition in N. Arlington dropped about 15% max, and are now back above their previous peaks, while the exurbs are about 25% below. Location, you know the rest............

Posted

I only know the market in Phuket where prices have plummeted with the bloated inventory increasing by the day. No one is buying. Russians propped up the market the last few years but are now all defaulting as the ruble falls of the clift.

Only people who buy are the clueless.

Everyone I know who has a bought property has sold or wants out. They can't get out.

Buying real estate in Thailand is always a bad financial decision. I can't be bothered listing the reasons but here is the big one: You never own it.

Renting is the only thing that makes sense in LOS.

To address OP's question: I don't expect the real estate market to change in the next 20 years, if ever. Don't buy in Thailand. Don't be fooled by anecdotal stories of profiting from property. Save your money.

I asked a realtor, one of the biggest independent, if he would buy a house, "Of course not."

Completely erratic and ignorant to the facts post that only a flip flop wearing bar stool expat philosoph in Thailand could type up; one who is satisfied with his low profile expat life, the typical cynic, never taking risks, never investing, always telling others to "not do it!"... always considering to run back home...

I'm a selfmade property developer who has build more than 20 houses and pool villas in southern Thailand with a good 95% of the investors being happy chappy, living the good life in their villas, renting them out when not here, laughing at their friends who opted for stock market investments instead, losing it all.

All this mambo jambo about "you can't own anything here anyway", I can't hear anymore, sick and tired of it because it always exits out of peoples' mouths who have no f___ing idea what they are talking about. Many of these losers would love to own a house here, but simply can't afford it. So what is their typical reaction? Calling everyone who actually CAN afford to buy a house in LOS and who eventually does it a fool, so they can feel better about themselves and their miserable lifes while riding their rented Honda Clicks to Supercheap in their never ending quest to find the cheapest leftovers around.

Talking about leftovers... The 5% left open in my number above are the typical complainers and the ones who are never happy with themselves, no matter what; the type who regrets a buy the very minute he has to wire the payment through. These people exist, but by now I have a good sense of identifying them and weeding them out before I make a sale that puts both of us in misery until the property is been sold again.

Apart from that, I am happy with the remaining 95% while having an ice cold Weissbier in the pool of my hillside villa enjoying my panorama view at the mountains of southern Thailand. I made it! You didn't, Pinot! A gap of infinite dimensions lies between us, and I pity you!

To answer the OP's question: Property prices in Thailand will most likely wobble a bit up and down in the future, but remain quite stable, despite the odds. There is an oversupply in condos though as everyone thought the Russian "invasion" will never end... However, Thai property owners are very resilient and most have enough guts and B ) options to ride out most of the storms without making distress sales. Land, biz properties and detached houses are the best options.

Even after the tsunami, most land prices were kept at pre tsunami level, what was a miracle in itself, really. Given that Europe will self destruct in a few years from now and civil war in Europe has become an openly discussed possibility, if not WW3, Thailand and several other areas of southeast Asia are not only the best bet to survive the coming 10 to 20 years of turmoil, but the best bet to invest in something substantial: Property!

This is probably the best of all you're good posts I have read on here, Thankyou and I agree with every point you made. Land is not necessarily going to make a quick profit unless you are buying cheap to bail someone out of a debt and they just dont want the loan shark to get it. I cannot fathom why certain people try to prevent others from becoming securely established financially by owning land via their Thai spouse. Maybe there is a trust issue in their relationship?

Posted

I saw prices drop 80% in Arizona and Nevada in 2008-2009. I bought a house, a townhouse, and a condo. I noticed the renter cheerleaders kept right on renting, kind of like the people, who refuse to bring over the 800K, and stop lying to the Consulate about their income. They won't do it at 50 THB to the Dollar, either. Value stocks are great, i bought Philip Morris and Pepsi this week, but if you like to get your hands dirty at all, real estate is the best business, and certainly not the oldest profession, but right in between teacher and policeman. A friend of mine visited in 2004, as a first timer. He bought approx. 4 rai in Hua Hin (set up a company). He built and sold 11 houses, the other two rent for 45,000 per month, each. He recently told me that if he had just held the land, and done nothing, he would have a 500% gain. He was willing to get his hands dirty, but also knew the trade. You want to be early to the party....not late, if you want to make real money. I spent about 20,000 USD on an older condo in CNX a few years ago. Some months, like this one, it may be my best investment. I'm getting about 9% return vs. the rent I would pay. Oh, but I can't make the landlord fix everything I break....well apparently, a lot of the renters can't either. I do my own repairs, see that they are done right, and don't have to make calls, and wait all afternoon for someone to come by and tell me what I already know. And, I get the government rate on electric. The barstool experts have been calling for a property crash here for 8 years...I challenge anyone to find a "steal" in a good location.

Surely with BAT buying heavily into electronic cigarettes is a sure sign of a reduction in the smoking industry and with new Cola like EST pouring into the market Pepsi sales must be dropping.

Land has always increased if left long enough and sold when prices are up and buy again when low. Same with gold.

There are lots of very good land deals around. We bought 19 rai for 50,000 THB per rai less than 6 months ago. The dirt road is now being made into a two lane road so it will have proper road frontage and it is only 2 km from the main road so the value is now at least 200,000 THB per rai. We have already been offered 150,000 but will wait a bit and see. This is surely a good deal.

Posted

with new Cola like EST pouring into the market Pepsi sales must be dropping.

Nobody who buys EST cola once, will ever make a second purchase.

I'm guessing you've never tasted the stuff!

Posted

The economic structure here is so different to that in the west that a recession caused by debt is unlikely. Police Officers are not allowed to borrow more than 1 million THB for a start. I think the worst that can happen already is and it will just stay the same or improve slowly. Look how many Thai people have cars and PU's now compared to 5 years ago even. Many worked overseas and are now returning to retire on their wealth. They are then telling all around of how good it is and more are selling their land to go too. This all keeps the wheels oiled.

I would hate to be proved wrong but am fully open to critics.

Posted (edited)

with new Cola like EST pouring into the market Pepsi sales must be dropping.

Nobody who buys EST cola once, will ever make a second purchase.

I'm guessing you've never tasted the stuff!

I agree and I have tried it once and would prefer warm water even on a hot day but nevertheless someone must be buying it as it is sold widely? My wife says Thai people like it. Gulp!

Edited by Transporter
Posted

I saw prices drop 80% in Arizona and Nevada in 2008-2009. I bought a house, a townhouse, and a condo. I noticed the renter cheerleaders kept right on renting, kind of like the people, who refuse to bring over the 800K, and stop lying to the Consulate about their income. They won't do it at 50 THB to the Dollar, either. Value stocks are great, i bought Philip Morris and Pepsi this week, but if you like to get your hands dirty at all, real estate is the best business, and certainly not the oldest profession, but right in between teacher and policeman. A friend of mine visited in 2004, as a first timer. He bought approx. 4 rai in Hua Hin (set up a company). He built and sold 11 houses, the other two rent for 45,000 per month, each. He recently told me that if he had just held the land, and done nothing, he would have a 500% gain. He was willing to get his hands dirty, but also knew the trade. You want to be early to the party....not late, if you want to make real money. I spent about 20,000 USD on an older condo in CNX a few years ago. Some months, like this one, it may be my best investment. I'm getting about 9% return vs. the rent I would pay. Oh, but I can't make the landlord fix everything I break....well apparently, a lot of the renters can't either. I do my own repairs, see that they are done right, and don't have to make calls, and wait all afternoon for someone to come by and tell me what I already know. And, I get the government rate on electric. The barstool experts have been calling for a property crash here for 8 years...I challenge anyone to find a "steal" in a good location.

Surely with BAT buying heavily into electronic cigarettes is a sure sign of a reduction in the smoking industry and with new Cola like EST pouring into the market Pepsi sales must be dropping.

Land has always increased if left long enough and sold when prices are up and buy again when low. Same with gold.

There are lots of very good land deals around. We bought 19 rai for 50,000 THB per rai less than 6 months ago. The dirt road is now being made into a two lane road so it will have proper road frontage and it is only 2 km from the main road so the value is now at least 200,000 THB per rai. We have already been offered 150,000 but will wait a bit and see. This is surely a good deal.

MO just raised their dividend by 8%, PM will announce at least a 5% increase in its dividend on 11 September. Pepsi could sell at a loss long enough to put EST out of business, if they were bored. You may have not noticed that about 15% of 7-11 shelf space is PepsiCo products. Pepsico is the world's largest snackmaker, and second largest non-alcoholic beverage maker. 60 Billion in revenue, 8 billion in profits.....Nice of you to buy land for your girlfriend or wife.

Posted

Prices for the ones that are getting ready to be built will go up......Thats how most things go here.

Posted

Folks, does anyone remember the condo prices in Bangkok in the 90's prior to the asian crisis? Was it also expensive back then?

Waterford condo, lower Suckie., circa 1997 (+/-), 5/6 mill for 2 bed/2 bath.

Posted

Folks, does anyone remember the condo prices in Bangkok in the 90's prior to the asian crisis? Was it also expensive back then?

Waterford condo, lower Suckie., circa 1997 (+/-), 5/6 mill for 2 bed/2 bath.

http://www.mybangkokhomes.com/listing-waterford-sukhumvit-50--20.html

Are you refering to this one?

No, Suckie and soi 43 I believe, Waterford Diamond to be more precise.

Posted

I only know the market in Phuket where prices have plummeted with the bloated inventory increasing by the day. No one is buying. Russians propped up the market the last few years but are now all defaulting as the ruble falls of the clift.

Only people who buy are the clueless.

Everyone I know who has a bought property has sold or wants out. They can't get out.

Buying real estate in Thailand is always a bad financial decision. I can't be bothered listing the reasons but here is the big one: You never own it.

Renting is the only thing that makes sense in LOS.

To address OP's question: I don't expect the real estate market to change in the next 20 years, if ever. Don't buy in Thailand. Don't be fooled by anecdotal stories of profiting from property. Save your money.

I asked a realtor, one of the biggest independent, if he would buy a house, "Of course not."

Completely erratic and ignorant to the facts post that only a flip flop wearing bar stool expat philosoph in Thailand could type up; one who is satisfied with his low profile expat life, the typical cynic, never taking risks, never investing, always telling others to "not do it!"... always considering to run back home...

I'm a selfmade property developer who has build more than 20 houses and pool villas in southern Thailand with a good 95% of the investors being happy chappy, living the good life in their villas, renting them out when not here, laughing at their friends who opted for stock market investments instead, losing it all.

All this mambo jambo about "you can't own anything here anyway", I can't hear anymore, sick and tired of it because it always exits out of peoples' mouths who have no f___ing idea what they are talking about. Many of these losers would love to own a house here, but simply can't afford it. So what is their typical reaction? Calling everyone who actually CAN afford to buy a house in LOS and who eventually does it a fool, so they can feel better about themselves and their miserable lifes while riding their rented Honda Clicks to Supercheap in their never ending quest to find the cheapest leftovers around.

Talking about leftovers... The 5% left open in my number above are the typical complainers and the ones who are never happy with themselves, no matter what; the type who regrets a buy the very minute he has to wire the payment through. These people exist, but by now I have a good sense of identifying them and weeding them out before I make a sale that puts both of us in misery until the property is been sold again.

Apart from that, I am happy with the remaining 95% while having an ice cold Weissbier in the pool of my hillside villa enjoying my panorama view at the mountains of southern Thailand. I made it! You didn't, Pinot! A gap of infinite dimensions lies between us, and I pity you!

To answer the OP's question: Property prices in Thailand will most likely wobble a bit up and down in the future, but remain quite stable, despite the odds. There is an oversupply in condos though as everyone thought the Russian "invasion" will never end... However, Thai property owners are very resilient and most have enough guts and B ) options to ride out most of the storms without making distress sales. Land, biz properties and detached houses are the best options.

Even after the tsunami, most land prices were kept at pre tsunami level, what was a miracle in itself, really. Given that Europe will self destruct in a few years from now and civil war in Europe has become an openly discussed possibility, if not WW3, Thailand and several other areas of southeast Asia are not only the best bet to survive the coming 10 to 20 years of turmoil, but the best bet to invest in something substantial: Property!

But your property developers perspective of things may not be in alignment with those who are deciding whether to plough money into this country right now ?unsure.png

Given the economic and the political realities of Thailand as at today (even including the possible consequences to foreigners of an inevitable major event that we are not even allowed to talk about) .

Some may not have the same confidence as you appear to have that Thailand will be the “ best bet to survive the coming 10-20 years “ and may choose to rent here ( and own real estate in their home country ) because they simply prefer not to worry about having any risk of needing to suddenly abandon their dream home for whatever reason.

If you ever saw the movie “ Heat “ with Robert De Niro playing the part of Neil McCauley you may remember his famous line which i think applies to foreigners living here on visas of any kind in todays Thailand…….

'Never have anything in your life that you can't walk out on ... can't walk away from in 30 seconds if you spot the "heat" around the corner “.ph34r.png

Case in point. imagine owning a property in Thailand but then not being allowed into the country like this guyfacepalm.gif

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/852826-refused-entry-at-bangkok-immigration/

  • 1 month later...
Posted (edited)

I saw prices drop 80% in Arizona and Nevada in 2008-2009. I bought a house, a townhouse, and a condo. I noticed the renter cheerleaders kept right on renting, kind of like the people, who refuse to bring over the 800K, and stop lying to the Consulate about their income. They won't do it at 50 THB to the Dollar, either. Value stocks are great, i bought Philip Morris and Pepsi this week, but if you like to get your hands dirty at all, real estate is the best business, and certainly not the oldest profession, but right in between teacher and policeman. A friend of mine visited in 2004, as a first timer. He bought approx. 4 rai in Hua Hin (set up a company). He built and sold 11 houses, the other two rent for 45,000 per month, each. He recently told me that if he had just held the land, and done nothing, he would have a 500% gain. He was willing to get his hands dirty, but also knew the trade. You want to be early to the party....not late, if you want to make real money. I spent about 20,000 USD on an older condo in CNX a few years ago. Some months, like this one, it may be my best investment. I'm getting about 9% return vs. the rent I would pay. Oh, but I can't make the landlord fix everything I break....well apparently, a lot of the renters can't either. I do my own repairs, see that they are done right, and don't have to make calls, and wait all afternoon for someone to come by and tell me what I already know. And, I get the government rate on electric. The barstool experts have been calling for a property crash here for 8 years...I challenge anyone to find a "steal" in a good location.

Surely with BAT buying heavily into electronic cigarettes is a sure sign of a reduction in the smoking industry and with new Cola like EST pouring into the market Pepsi sales must be dropping.

Land has always increased if left long enough and sold when prices are up and buy again when low. Same with gold.

There are lots of very good land deals around. We bought 19 rai for 50,000 THB per rai less than 6 months ago. The dirt road is now being made into a two lane road so it will have proper road frontage and it is only 2 km from the main road so the value is now at least 200,000 THB per rai. We have already been offered 150,000 but will wait a bit and see. This is surely a good deal.

Update: PEP and PM both up 10%+ since this post.

Edited by bangmai
Posted

"If tourism declines to new low levels I don't think Thailands property will drop much..."

​That's because tourists don't buy property. Of course, many TVers predicted that August 29, 2014 would be the day that the Thai real estate market would collapse. They made this prediction based on their belief that farangs were the driving force of the Thai real estate market, and that new visa requirements would force part-time teachers to abandon their dreams to buy condos for their bargirl friends. Many farangs are witless enough to pay 1M THB to marry a prostitute, but that doesn't mean they're dumb enough to buy a condo in their wife's name.

Posted

Those people who keep predicting the great Thai property crash and the same ones who will be priced out of the market at some point in the future. And anyone who thinks that farangs are a key driver for Thai property prices has a vastly overestimated the value and ability of that contingent. I think there's a fair chance that if every farang in Thailand dumped his Thai property holding on the same day, market values would barely change thanks to Chinese, Korean, Thai and other regional buyers.

Posted (edited)

Those people who keep predicting the great Thai property crash and the same ones who will be priced out of the market at some point in the future. And anyone who thinks that farangs are a key driver for Thai property prices has a vastly overestimated the value and ability of that contingent. I think there's a fair chance that if every farang in Thailand dumped his Thai property holding on the same day, market values would barely change thanks to Chinese, Korean, Thai and other regional buyers.

As it's against the law for most of us to own property in Thailand, how can we possibly be priced out of the market?

Giving money to a Thai woman for a house, doesn't count as owning a house, in any way, shape or meaning of the word.

That's more like a mental illness.

Edited by MaeJoMTB
Posted

Those people who keep predicting the great Thai property crash and the same ones who will be priced out of the market at some point in the future. And anyone who thinks that farangs are a key driver for Thai property prices has a vastly overestimated the value and ability of that contingent. I think there's a fair chance that if every farang in Thailand dumped his Thai property holding on the same day, market values would barely change thanks to Chinese, Korean, Thai and other regional buyers.

As it's against the law for most of us to own property in Thailand, how can we possibly be priced out of the market?

Giving money to a Thai woman for a house, doesn't count as owning a house, in any way, shape or meaning of the word.

That's more like a mental illness.

Same old <deleted> and disinformation, from the same sources, for whatever reason or purpose! Hardly worth challenging it all any more.

Posted

I only know the market in Phuket where prices have plummeted with the bloated inventory increasing by the day. No one is buying. Russians propped up the market the last few years but are now all defaulting as the ruble falls of the clift.

Only people who buy are the clueless.

Everyone I know who has a bought property has sold or wants out. They can't get out.

Buying real estate in Thailand is always a bad financial decision. I can't be bothered listing the reasons but here is the big one: You never own it.

Renting is the only thing that makes sense in LOS.

To address OP's question: I don't expect the real estate market to change in the next 20 years, if ever. Don't buy in Thailand. Don't be fooled by anecdotal stories of profiting from property. Save your money.

I asked a realtor, one of the biggest independent, if he would buy a house, "Of course not."

Completely erratic and ignorant to the facts post that only a flip flop wearing bar stool expat philosoph in Thailand could type up; one who is satisfied with his low profile expat life, the typical cynic, never taking risks, never investing, always telling others to "not do it!"... always considering to run back home...

I'm a selfmade property developer who has build more than 20 houses and pool villas in southern Thailand with a good 95% of the investors being happy chappy, living the good life in their villas, renting them out when not here, laughing at their friends who opted for stock market investments instead, losing it all.

All this mambo jambo about "you can't own anything here anyway", I can't hear anymore, sick and tired of it because it always exits out of peoples' mouths who have no f___ing idea what they are talking about. Many of these losers would love to own a house here, but simply can't afford it. So what is their typical reaction? Calling everyone who actually CAN afford to buy a house in LOS and who eventually does it a fool, so they can feel better about themselves and their miserable lifes while riding their rented Honda Clicks to Supercheap in their never ending quest to find the cheapest leftovers around.

Talking about leftovers... The 5% left open in my number above are the typical complainers and the ones who are never happy with themselves, no matter what; the type who regrets a buy the very minute he has to wire the payment through. These people exist, but by now I have a good sense of identifying them and weeding them out before I make a sale that puts both of us in misery until the property is been sold again.

Apart from that, I am happy with the remaining 95% while having an ice cold Weissbier in the pool of my hillside villa enjoying my panorama view at the mountains of southern Thailand. I made it! You didn't, Pinot! A gap of infinite dimensions lies between us, and I pity you!

To answer the OP's question: Property prices in Thailand will most likely wobble a bit up and down in the future, but remain quite stable, despite the odds. There is an oversupply in condos though as everyone thought the Russian "invasion" will never end... However, Thai property owners are very resilient and most have enough guts and B ) options to ride out most of the storms without making distress sales. Land, biz properties and detached houses are the best options.

Even after the tsunami, most land prices were kept at pre tsunami level, what was a miracle in itself, really. Given that Europe will self destruct in a few years from now and civil war in Europe has become an openly discussed possibility, if not WW3, Thailand and several other areas of southeast Asia are not only the best bet to survive the coming 10 to 20 years of turmoil, but the best bet to invest in something substantial: Property!

But your property developers perspective of things may not be in alignment with those who are deciding whether to plough money into this country right now ?unsure.png

Given the economic and the political realities of Thailand as at today (even including the possible consequences to foreigners of an inevitable major event that we are not even allowed to talk about) .

Some may not have the same confidence as you appear to have that Thailand will be the “ best bet to survive the coming 10-20 years “ and may choose to rent here ( and own real estate in their home country ) because they simply prefer not to worry about having any risk of needing to suddenly abandon their dream home for whatever reason.

If you ever saw the movie “ Heat “ with Robert De Niro playing the part of Neil McCauley you may remember his famous line which i think applies to foreigners living here on visas of any kind in todays Thailand…….

'Never have anything in your life that you can't walk out on ... can't walk away from in 30 seconds if you spot the "heat" around the corner “.ph34r.png

So just freeze? do nothing? let time slip away? if you think like that stay in your home country.

Some confidence goes a long way towards success.

Posted (edited)

Same old <deleted> and disinformation, from the same sources, for whatever reason or purpose! Hardly worth challenging it all any more.

I find it strange that some normally law abiding gentlemen seem prepared to break any law that stops them buying property.

Then claim they aren't criminals.

But at the same time look down on overstayers, sex offenders, drug dealers, corrupt police et al.

I guess it's always the way with white collar criminals, and probably the reason the west has gone to h_ell.

Me,

I try not to break any laws in the country I live.

I don't always succeed, but I try.

Edited by MaeJoMTB
Posted (edited)

Are you going to live in it for at least 10 years? If so its a no Brainer. Dont listen to the don't buy here crowd, remember farang can't get credit here and the majority here are school teacher's or poor pensioners and balloon chasers barley able to survive. Certainly they shouldn't be giving any type of financial advice... Sad but oh so true :-(

Sent from my SC-01D using Tapatalk

Edited by mcfish

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