Imagining Thailand in the next 50 years

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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Imagining Thailand in the next 50 years
Kavi Chongkittavorn
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- At a glance, it is ridiculous to propose to average Mr Somchai or Ms Somsri that they should start to think about how their country will look in 2065 - in 50 years time.

As we have witnessed in our daily lives, we - as Thais, as individuals and a nation as a whole — are unable to think too far ahead - be it for the next 50 days or better still, the next 50 minutes.

We all know, sometimes with a high sense of self-indulgence - that we are a nation of survivors, engaging in a day-to day contest. The world "Tai" means freedom. Some would say this present paradigm is just of hardships, while others think it is karma - whatever, it seems to be our destiny to live this way. Come what may and whatever we are, we are very good at tackling and overcoming challenges at hand — bit by bit on a flexible timeline.

With a fast changing world that is filled with unpredictability, Thailand will not be able to survive with the same mode of rationale and attitude, especially with the thinking of knuckleheads running the country, as it is today.

Within Asia, we are not a country of long-term vision - like China, Japan, South Korea or Singapore - when it comes to broad vision and planning. These countries have a far greater grasp of what the future holds.

Take Singapore as a case study; after much fanfare commemorating the country's independence 50 years ago, its leaders have been on full throttle planning its future in 2065.

For the past several months, all the island's leading scholars and intellectuals have been discussing ideas and plans on how to make Singapore great, without increasing the island's size, in the next 50 years. They already have some good and broad answers: Singapore has to be more open and imbued with multiculturalism, as well as with smarter citizens along with better and affordable public housing (above ground or underground) and other social safety nets. The most important thing, though, they have to make sure that all Singaporeans do not come out of their housing units and stay on the ground at the same time, otherwise their 5.34 million people will not have enough space to stand.

The way Singaporeans organised and opened this debate on their future must be noted. They went on so well because they did not begin by asking the question whether the People's Action Party, which has ruled the island's politics since independence in 1965, would still be in power for the next 50 years. Of course, that would have been a bad way to do start it.

They talked about what matters the most to all Singaporeans — housing, social welfare, education, child?care, cost of living, et al. Now, the island is more open, even civil society organisations are encouraged to pitch in ideas. Thais can learn a few lessons from Singapore's experience — debate on issues that really matter to the Thais — not falling for ideologue-led intellectuals with the heavy mix of demagoguery and fallacy. We have, of course, to be open-minded in discussing our future over the next 50 years. But often times, leading Thai intellectuals have reversed gears to move forward. Anyway, some of these ideas should be on the table.

First, most important is how to educate our people to use their heads instead of their emotions. We need new ways of thinking, which can only come with a better education system. At the moment, the current system is not suitable to ensure that Thailand survives till 2065. We need younger people to plan our learning experience — educating people with ideas they will need and be eager to learn, so they have skills and understanding of their country and its surroundings.

At the moment, the Ministry of Education has all kinds of plans - from nearly retired bureaucrats with little knowledge of the mindset of young people. Worst of all, many education plans have not been carried out through to the end. With a new administration comes new ideas and so on — but no continuity.

Second, we have to make Thai farmers smarter - over 60 per cent of the population are farmers. They are the people who have made Thailand what it is today and obviously will do so in the next 50 years. Such an education scheme may sound ambitious, but we must do it if we want to survive as a nation.

Decentralisation and community-based decision-making will be the key. Smarter farmers can make smarter decisions about their lives and communities. Many pilot projects that involve indigenous stakeholders work better although it can take time.

With digital connectivity and social media, farmers must be taught to use the new tools wisely, otherwise, they could easily become victims of rumours and foul play. With new technology, they can be better farmers and enjoy better yields and income. Most of all, they need to be able to find good information and an ability to know the "good" or "bad" guys are — no more being pushed around. More than ever before, Thailand needs smart farmers. The idea that we can abandon farming and go for hi-tech industries alone is a bad and unfeasible.

Our bureaucrats need to be giving a better life support system — they are the country's driving force. But how can they become dynamic and public-minded if their concerns daily are still very much about their own survival? Teachers, police and local officials — many heavily indebted — must have healthy lives before they can make the rest of society healthy. Thailand needs dedicated people who work and serve the country. They must also be highly articulate in identifying issues and solutions. One Thai minister asked recently: Who is Thailand's equivalent to Thurman Shanmugaratnam — the Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Singapore?

There are still millions of ideas to pick up and discuss. We have to rise above the current social shenanigans, or malaise, and the half-empty bottle outlook. It is better to start now to figure out, even in a most opaque way with a "half-full" approach, what the future for Thailand will be like in 2065.

In the end, it will be through this kind of debate and consultation that we can get the best ideas and plans — maybe not for next 50 years but the next 50 days — if we are lucky. Well, nonetheless, if that is the case, it would be a success.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Imagining-Thailand-in-the-next-50-years-30267775.html


-- The Nation 2015-08-31

[selftaopath]

Personally I don't believe Thailand will be increasingly competitive to it's neighbors or the rest of the modern world in any area of concern. The reason being, there are NOT many Thais who love Thailand enough to put their country's well being ahead of their own self serving interests. I would love to be wrong.

[terryp]

waste of time , almost all the worlds population will be gone within 15 years..a nuclear world war is almost upon us.... live for today

[Seastallion]

Here's a possible and likely scenario IF some truly far-seeing, altruistic,. benevolent, and wise people don't do what's needed: In 50 years, more than half of Thailand's businesses will be owned by Chinese, Burmese, Singaporean, and Cambodian businessmen. The 20-somethings of today will be seeing their kids and grandkids working as maids and gardeners, prostitutes and labourers, for foreign ASEAN nationals, while these same foreign ASEAN nationals will be taking income away from Thai businessmen. It will get so bad, that Thailand will try to adjust laws, and try to escape out of it's ASEAN agreements. But too little, too late.

The only way to move forward is to get some Western experts to design an education system and curriculum, and to adhere to it. Without properly educated children, this nation will surely fail.

I say Western experts, because the Thai education system has failed for decades, and there are no Thai experts willing or able to do the job. If there are...pay them well and get them to work.

Corruption, too, of course, needs to be stamped out completely. Corruption is holding the country back. An enlightened citizenry will help a lot in this regard.

[davehowden]

In 50 years time Thailand will be known as "Region 27 - China South Territories", and will be famous for nothing very much (as now).

[Lupatria]

The comparison with Singapore seems more than far-fetched because Singapore is already 100 years ahead when it comes to education and social development.

In consideration of Thailand's farmers and rural population as a pillar of the nation, one should remember that life in the villages here is marked of archaic mindset. Compared to western nations life in Thailand’s villages is already lagging 200 years behind.

[LukKrueng]

Here's a possible and likely scenario IF some truly far-seeing, altruistic,. benevolent, and wise people don't do what's needed: In 50 years, more than half of Thailand's businesses will be owned by Chinese, Burmese, Singaporean, and Cambodian businessmen. The 20-somethings of today will be seeing their kids and grandkids working as maids and gardeners, prostitutes and labourers, for foreign ASEAN nationals, while these same foreign ASEAN nationals will be taking income away from Thai businessmen. It will get so bad, that Thailand will try to adjust laws, and try to escape out of it's ASEAN agreements. But too little, too late.

The only way to move forward is to get some Western experts to design an education system and curriculum, and to adhere to it. Without properly educated children, this nation will surely fail.

I say Western experts, because the Thai education system has failed for decades, and there are no Thai experts willing or able to do the job. If there are...pay them well and get them to work.

Corruption, too, of course, needs to be stamped out completely. Corruption is holding the country back. An enlightened citizenry will help a lot in this regard.

Yes, right!! I say bring some of the American educators, maybe those who recently restrained and handcuffed the 8-9 years old boy and girl who "violently attacked them".

And also bring some security experts to install and man the metal detectors at the school entrance like in most US public schools.

Fact is that in most countries in the world - although everyone knows and agrees that the kids are the future of the world - education is never given enough resources. Reforms are always suggested but never actually happen. There is always something more important to deal with for immediate effect - it might be the bad economy that need stimulants, or the national security that takes a big chunk of the budget, or bailing our corrupt and failing banks and other major companies as in the US of A

[islandguy]

"The most important thing, though, they have to make sure that all Singaporeans do not come out of their housing units and stay on the ground at the same time, otherwise their 5.34 million people will not have enough space to stand."

[Shermanator]

Couldn't help it but to have a good chuckle about this. Thailand in the next 50 years... How can a nation where a good 90% or the population can't think further than from here to the telly, the fridge and the nearest 7Eleven, do an imaginative time jump 50 years ahead? Basically that would have any local trying being sucked into a black hole. Too much thinking gives headache... "Kid maak, puat huaa!", as the locals say.

This given and the level of ignorance and superficiality the common Thai expresses, whenever it comes to a "Farang" telling him what to do or dares to give some advise, is a hindrance of such magnitude that it basically renders any attempt to implement changes in LOS for the better a lost cause. I believe that Seastallion with his prediction so far is closest to what is to come. My prediciton would be even worse.

Usually, the Thais react with nationalism, nepotism, protectionism and anger wherever there is a threat to their "we're free and we are the greatest people in the world" brainwash. As much as they hail the ASEAN thing at the moment as much they will curse the day they entered, because becoming a part of ASEAN means that a good 90% will be out of a job in no time.

Regarding the smart farmer talks - how will it be of help to have smart farmers if any government in charge supports questionable companies like Monsanto and all the other big "american dream" corporations that create a slave for life out of any farmer who ever dares to put his signature or fingerprint under one of their contracts? Key words for a change to the better here would be permaculture, green farming, etc. something several small and big farmers already try. They come from the 10% that are thinking outside the box while the remaining 90% are sleeping (and they are good at it). If there is no wake up call coming FAST, I see no hope for Thailand to survive the coming 50 years unless they build a wall around this country and create a carbon copy of the ex East Germany DDR, to protect their stupid narrow minded philosophy of "we are the greatest".

Edited August 31, 2015 by Shermanator

[capt635]

But! and I say again BUT! The SINGULARITY will have arrived well within that time frame. You don't know about this event? Please punch this word into Google and learn the truth from so many eminent qualified professionals.

[car720]

Here's a possible and likely scenario IF some truly far-seeing, altruistic,. benevolent, and wise people don't do what's needed: In 50 years, more than half of Thailand's businesses will be owned by Chinese, Burmese, Singaporean, and Cambodian businessmen. The 20-somethings of today will be seeing their kids and grandkids working as maids and gardeners, prostitutes and labourers, for foreign ASEAN nationals, while these same foreign ASEAN nationals will be taking income away from Thai businessmen. It will get so bad, that Thailand will try to adjust laws, and try to escape out of it's ASEAN agreements. But too little, too late.

The only way to move forward is to get some Western experts to design an education system and curriculum, and to adhere to it. Without properly educated children, this nation will surely fail.

I say Western experts, because the Thai education system has failed for decades, and there are no Thai experts willing or able to do the job. If there are...pay them well and get them to work.

Corruption, too, of course, needs to be stamped out completely. Corruption is holding the country back. An enlightened citizenry will help a lot in this regard.

It is the oldest profession known to man.

What makes anyone think that another 50 years will make a difference.

[Shermanator]

But! and I say again BUT! The SINGULARITY will have arrived well within that time frame. You don't know about this event? Please punch this word into Google and learn the truth from so many eminent qualified professionals.

New Age BS! Humans are too complex, erratic, bad and unpredictable to make this work.

[MilesofSmiles]

Same same but different.

And comparing Thailand to Singapore ? Don't be silly.

[LarryBird]

Thailand knows what Thailand needs to do, it just can't do it. Having a bunch of intellectuals sitting around and bouncing ideas off of each other isn't the answer.

[KNJ]

Thailand in 50 years:

Tourists still complaining that they are being ripped off in Jet Ski Scams at Pattaya.

Russians and Chinese dominate the Jet Ski rental market.

TV has its own subsection on the issue celebrating its 50th birthday.

Those Brits who retired long ago to Thailand on a state pension, surviving on a bowl of rice or noodles a day, as their pension is still not linked to inflation, and they thought they would have enough.

Chiang Mai real estate market is completely dead, with Chinese owning most of the condos

Many new Moo Baans, with for sale or rent signs which have been empty for 50 years ( Somchai still thinks it was a good investment and that he will get his price eventually)

The Bangkok Sky Train now extends to the Cambodian border and Koh Chang is commuter distance to the big Mango.

The Thai military is still a caretaker government, but promises elections soon.

The Phuket government is still having meetings to decide what 10% of beach local vendors can use.

TV members still disagree whether it is better to buy or rent, and some remise about windows 10 and others that it still has bugs

The latest Thai fashion is optical implants so they can watch there favourite soaps 24/7

[0036Tag]

At the pace the government moves, I imagine Bangkok will be under water do to rising tide. Current Junta will be gone do to old age. The RTP will officially be called the Mafia or the Keystone Kops.

[jayboy]

Personally I don't believe Thailand will be increasingly competitive to it's neighbors or the rest of the modern world in any area of concern. The reason being, there are NOT many Thais who love Thailand enough to put their country's well being ahead of their own self serving interests. I would love to be wrong.

I don't agree.Thailand needs a stable democratic government, a better educated workforce (technical skills ) and a bit of luck with the global economic climate.The biggest driver will be the animal spirits of mainly Sino Thai domestic capitalists - who have delivered remarkable prosperity to Thailand over the last half century.Self serving interests have delivered prosperity to Thailand.Those who profess to "love" their country have brought it to the brink of disaster.

[sawadee1947]

well, Thailand in 50 years? Who knows if Thailand would exist still then? Thailand is too much focused on themselves and will not realize how much the neighbouring countries will change or even occupy Thailand in economic way.

A big obsticle is that I can't see any way to become a secular country. It is not necessay into a western way but give education priorities. Education in western standard, average standard. I would be afraid to see Thais as a low class society in 50 years to act as "slaves" for Chinese, Burmese or Vietnamese, because these countries know to shoot the curl!

[jadee]

The only way I can see Thailand's economy improving drastically is if the age-old idea of a Thai canal were implemented. Perhaps funded by the Chinese, this may either bring greater prosperity or, as other people have noted, effectively make Thailand an extension of Chinese territory. A canal would disrupt Singapore's dominance in the region and perhaps that's why the idea has never found political favor.

[BudRight]

Whatever Thailand looks like in 50 years, I'm sure "It's a developing country" will still be used to apologize for it's inadequacies.

[ToddinChonburi]

Lets think small, maybe clean drinking water from the tap.

Energy efficient homes

recycling programs

enforced traffic laws

No Jet Ski Scams

NO Suspicious Farang Deaths

NO Murdered Tourists

OH SILLY ME !!!!!

[elgordo38]

waste of time , almost all the worlds population will be gone within 15 years..a nuclear world war is almost upon us.... live for today

We already have a nuclear war going on its called politics. You have idiots like Scott Walker wanting to discuss building a wall between Canada and the United States(MSN this a.m.) what a jerk. Well hold on it might be a good idea to keep Americans out of Canada never thought of that. Like locusts politicians their everywhere their everywhere their everywhere. In the end it might be the humble honey bee that brings us all to our knees.

[elgordo38]

Thailand knows what Thailand needs to do, it just can't do it. Having a bunch of intellectuals sitting around and bouncing ideas off of each other isn't the answer.

WOW did this guy really say this in the above article? "Thailand will not be able to survive with the same mode of rationale and attitude, especially with the thinking of knuckleheads running the country, as it is today." unquote. He must be out of reach of the junta to talk like this."knuckleheads" hmm sounds more like a western term to me. If they catch him they will do a double wash rinse and dry to his grey matter. By the time they release him all he will be able to say repeatedly is "I obey what they say"

[fred Kubasa]

Considering Thailand's snail like speed in progressing , I believe 50 years, even 15 years

in the future will show more back sliding and either Thailand, itself, will be sold at an auction or , simply given away to first nation asking !

[ddavidovsky]

In 50 years time Thailand will be known as "Region 27 - China South Territories", and will be famous for nothing very much (as now).

Feasible. It will happen like this: Israel will obliterate Palestine completely, causing a global Muslim uprising, in response to which the world will take one side or another, resulting in various regional conflicts, such as between Thailand and Malaysia, causing China, which by this time is in severe need of more resources and lebensraum, to take advantage of the confusion and step in, using this excuse and others (such as the Spratleys) to invade the whole of SE Asia and do what Japan tried to do in WWII (thereby salving their humiliation over that). And this time, due to their sheer numbers and economic might - and an even more rabid nationalism - they will be unstoppable.

[Vagabond1]

Here's a possible and likely scenario IF some truly far-seeing, altruistic,. benevolent, and wise people don't do what's needed: In 50 years, more than half of Thailand's businesses will be owned by Chinese, Burmese, Singaporean, and Cambodian businessmen. The 20-somethings of today will be seeing their kids and grandkids working as maids and gardeners, prostitutes and labourers, for foreign ASEAN nationals, while these same foreign ASEAN nationals will be taking income away from Thai businessmen. It will get so bad, that Thailand will try to adjust laws, and try to escape out of it's ASEAN agreements. But too little, too late.

Poor Thailand. So Australians, Brits, Germans etc will get replaced by Chinese, Burmese, Singaporean, and Cambodian?

[Seastallion]

Here's a possible and likely scenario IF some truly far-seeing, altruistic,. benevolent, and wise people don't do what's needed: In 50 years, more than half of Thailand's businesses will be owned by Chinese, Burmese, Singaporean, and Cambodian businessmen. The 20-somethings of today will be seeing their kids and grandkids working as maids and gardeners, prostitutes and labourers, for foreign ASEAN nationals, while these same foreign ASEAN nationals will be taking income away from Thai businessmen. It will get so bad, that Thailand will try to adjust laws, and try to escape out of it's ASEAN agreements. But too little, too late.

The only way to move forward is to get some Western experts to design an education system and curriculum, and to adhere to it. Without properly educated children, this nation will surely fail.

I say Western experts, because the Thai education system has failed for decades, and there are no Thai experts willing or able to do the job. If there are...pay them well and get them to work.

Corruption, too, of course, needs to be stamped out completely. Corruption is holding the country back. An enlightened citizenry will help a lot in this regard.

Yes, right!! I say bring some of the American educators,

While your idea would do, I think the designers of the Cambridge curriculum would be far better, and Finnish system designers. Toss in some Kiwis and Aussies for balance.

Sorry, but I've seen too many SAT tests to put USA curriculum above Finland, Britain, Aus and NZ.....but it certainly beats Thailand's current curriculum and system.

[Seastallion]

Here's a possible and likely scenario IF some truly far-seeing, altruistic,. benevolent, and wise people don't do what's needed: In 50 years, more than half of Thailand's businesses will be owned by Chinese, Burmese, Singaporean, and Cambodian businessmen. The 20-somethings of today will be seeing their kids and grandkids working as maids and gardeners, prostitutes and labourers, for foreign ASEAN nationals, while these same foreign ASEAN nationals will be taking income away from Thai businessmen. It will get so bad, that Thailand will try to adjust laws, and try to escape out of it's ASEAN agreements. But too little, too late.

Poor Thailand. So Australians, Brits, Germans etc will get replaced by Chinese, Burmese, Singaporean, and Cambodian?

Indeed, yes, because of ASEAN agreements.

And this is what will be the spur. Thais can not bear the thought of being subservient to Burmese or Cambodians. It's unthinkable.

But, as the OP states, Thais struggle to look forward 50 days, let alone fifty years.....Some Thais can't look forward 5 seconds, as with the van drivers who, upon seeing the lights turn red a mere 50 metres ahead, continue to red-line it.

Edited August 31, 2015 by Seastallion

[DrTuner]

Just look at Myanmar 10y ago. Minus the English language.

[starky]

I would love to be optimistic and think of all the wonderful things Thailand could accomplish in the next 50 years but to be honest 500 years would probably be closer to the mark and the way things progress in Thailand maybe push that out to 5000. Still, something to look forward to