Declining birth rate in Thailand

[Seann]

My wife is in her thirties born in Bangkok. Of all her friends maybe a couple have 2 kids, nobody has three kids, the majority still have no kids and some have one child.

In this context, how will this effect a society with massive wealth disparity and very little social services for the poor and elderly?

Combine this will a national obsession with debt fueled by face.

[kannot]

In my village it appears every young girl has a sprog dangling from them........either that or thrown in front of the TV

[TPI]

No problem! Old people will borrow money for food and expect the children to pay the money back or do like most do (if they can get away with it) start selling yaba! The youngest child is expected to support and serve the surviving parents.

[soomak]

Birth rates in Thailand have not changed much in the past 10-15 years.

Its around 1.5-1.7 children per woman, which is actually a good thing IMHO as it stoped the population growth and enabled the GDP per capita growth in the past 40 years.

[godden]

Too many ladyboys.

[recycler]

Thailands birthrate was 1.41 in 2012 and declining. Not very far off from China with years of single child policy.

One of the issues that Thailand has compared to other ASEAN countries that Thailand will have a major problem with this in the not so near future. Neighboring countries have way more people to add to the workforce combined with the worst level education in Thailand these are serious problems.

[Thongkorn]

Too many ladyboys.

and Boy ladies

[Jimbo2014]

Many asian countries are now facing a serious demographic cliff and thailand is one of the worst cases. Peak spending is typically 45 to 55 year olds. Thail and has its bubble at the sweet spot now and has squandered it's chance with poor and corrupt politics, little credit worthiness and poor education. Urban migration will likely keep bangkok good for another 30 years but the overall economy has serious issues

[smotherb]

If the birthrate is declining, it may be the first concrete evidence of a real decrease in tourism.

[AlQaholic]

Many areas in Thailand (like the one I am in has an Inverted population pyramid already 20 years ago due to the rapid urbanization, but now I think it is turning in many areas as job opportunities for the educated are increasing in the country side due to the Industrial parks projects.

[masuk]

If the birthrate is declining, it may be the first concrete evidence of a real decrease in tourism.

Don't forget the epidemic here.

490+ deaths every week.

look up 'road fatalities'.

[barryw52]

I underderstand that from 2016 onwards Thailand has a declining population. So as this progresses the low cost labour will have come from a joining countries.

[Suradit69]

No problem! Old people will borrow money for food and expect the children to pay the money back or do like most do (if they can get away with it) start selling yaba! The youngest child is expected to support and serve the surviving parents.

"No problem! Old people will borrow money for food and expect the children to pay the money back"

That's certainly the working model employed by the US and European countries, although the borrowing is for more than just food ... things like unnecessary wars and bailing out banks & wealthy political supporters ... but the plan is still to spend now and hand the mess over to future generations. Of course in places like Greece, the chickens came home to roost a great deal sooner than was expected.

[GR8fun in LOS]

I was reading recently that populations needed to grow by at least 2.1 children per generation to survive. Most of the European nations were in the low to mid 1's ratio, so they are ageing populations with all the problems that are brought about by that situation. The only major exception was Germany which was above 2.1 growth but that growth was based principally on it's immigration program; (pre the current refugee crisis) and many of those came from Turkish nationals (not those passing through). But the problem compounds, as the majority are muslim and they're birthrate worldwide is generally in excess of 6, which could lead to a muslim population explosion and the gradual change in control from Christian to Muslim over the next 50 to 100 or so years.

Thailand at 1.4 ish is almost European in it's growth rate which means that the workforce is aging not, like it's ASEAN neighbours with the exception of Singapore. So with the slowing growth rate and poor education levels Thailand may quietly disappear down the proverbial "Gurgler" when so many opportunities will open to it's ASEAN neighbours.

[ggt]

Could the decline in Russian tourists and Japanese men needing to impregnate Thai women have anything to do with it?

[kerrysum]

Funny world isn't it? Guess it depends on where you live. Old school had up to 15 children, new school 1.5 to two? I have watched it over the years.... But it happened in only one generation...

So what do you say?

[duckmandon]

If the birth rate is declining & with the statistics we see everyday with road fatalities, murder, suicide & just normal attrition then I would think the Thai race will cease to exist. Maybe evolution process!!!

[Stevemercer]

Thai society will face radical changes because of the reliance on family care. The last generation had an average of 5 children, the current generation less than 2, and the next generation probably about 1 child. Most Thais have a large extended family that they can fall back on for help when they have debt, are sick or are elderly. Future Thais will no longer have such extensive family support as the current generation age and pass away. The Government will have to step in and seriously increase aged care facilities and support for the elderly. The crisis will be acute in rural areas during droughts and other times of economic crisis. People will increasingly crowd into Bangkok for work as the family farm is sold off bit by bit and rural young people don't want want the land for a pittance.

There is still time for an orderly progression to a new system of welfare because changes won't be really noticeable for at least another 10 years. I'm sure the Government is well advanced in planning and has strategies in place to address the aging population, declining extended family support and increased need for welfare. I'm sure they are also aware of the coming need to import workers from neighbouring countries, to keep the economy growing, and have streamlined customs to make it easier for people to come int the Kingdom.

[farangmick]

Thai society will face radical changes because of the reliance on family care. The last generation had an average of 5 children, the current generation less than 2, and the next generation probably about 1 child. Most Thais have a large extended family that they can fall back on for help when they have debt, are sick or are elderly. Future Thais will no longer have such extensive family support as the current generation age and pass away. The Government will have to step in and seriously increase aged care facilities and support for the elderly. The crisis will be acute in rural areas during droughts and other times of economic crisis. People will increasingly crowd into Bangkok for work as the family farm is sold off bit by bit and rural young people don't want want the land for a pittance.

There is still time for an orderly progression to a new system of welfare because changes won't be really noticeable for at least another 10 years. I'm sure the Government is well advanced in planning and has strategies in place to address the aging population, declining extended family support and increased need for welfare. I'm sure they are also aware of the coming need to import workers from neighbouring countries, to keep the economy growing, and have streamlined customs to make it easier for people to come int the Kingdom.

You must be British. Nice line in irony. Some might take your second paragraph at face value.

[smotherb]

If the birthrate is declining, it may be the first concrete evidence of a real decrease in tourism.

Don't forget the epidemic here.

490+ deaths every week.

look up 'road fatalities'.

I was being facetious, but at least my statement could be plausible. I am not sure what point you are making.

According to http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp road fatalities have been declining since 2002.

So, in the same time frame, less people are dying due to road accidents and less are being born.

What is the correlation?

[ozyjon]

Getting old sucks

can't wait for adult diapers,

maybe i should think of moving to Japan,

they take care of the old farts quite well.

[GOLDBUGGY]

I don't believe debt is fueled by "Face". I believe debt is fuel like anywhere else, which is easy credit. People here want luxuries just like anywhere else. Low Interest Rates and Easy Credit will always create more debt per person.

I recall a time in Poland when Poland was just coming out of Communism and when there was no such thing as a Bank Loan. No such thing as a Mortgage or Car Loan. Even from the Dealership. If you wanted a new car (which I did) you went down to the Dealership, paid cash, and they ordered it from the Polish Fiat Factory, which then took about 3 weeks to arrive. My New Polish Fiat cost me about $3,000 in 1993 and to be honest it was a damned good car then to.

It was a time where most people took cheap public transportation. Very few people owned cars besides Farmers, Taxi Drivers, and the very few Rich. A car, of any age, was considered a real luxury. I recall Warsaw with hardly any cars on the main streets during peak periods. Where all Advertising Signs were in English and where most Poles couldn't read them. Where $45 bought you a night out for you and your Girlfriend including eating, drinking, tips, and dancing in a fine Night Club all night long.

Then Poland joined NATO and later the EU. Bank Loans became available to the Common Man. Many Poles, who never had debt before and were not used to borrowed money quickly found themselves in debt. Although this borrowed money fueled the economy for years. Property Prices doubled the first couple of years in all major cities and the supply of cars exceeded the poor roads, lack of traffic lights, and narrow streets. It became a nightmare to drive their at any time as it was faster by bicycle.

This is why governments set low interest rates. To fuel a dying economy by people borrowing more and thus spending more. I am surprised I haven't seen more of that in Thailand. But there comes a time when people can't borrow as they are up to their neck in debt. So the government then has to pull another rabbit out of it's hat, or suffer the consequences. I am waiting to see which rabbit they will pull out next.

Looks like negative interest rates is something knew and unheard of until recently. Imagine putting your life savings in the bank and having to pay them to hold it for you. How crazy is that? I guess it does shows you what your money is actually worth these days. .