Asian and SE Asian Currencies 20-30% Over-Valued ☺

[NeverSure]

The US dollar is being talked-up based on what? Shale oil is still too expensive compared to the now-increased barrelage from SA and Iran, and we have not seen the effects of the Yuan being included in the "worlds leading currencies" yet, but given their casino mentality, it's going to be interesting, if not tearful

The US is not an oil-exporting country so the price of shale oil is pretty much irrelevant to the economy (except in those regions where it is pumped). The overall cheaper price of oil/energy has an overall stimulative effect on the economy. Nobody is "talking up" up the US economy...the USA is kicking butt and taking names...that's why the dollar is strong. The BRIC wall has completely crumbled

You really need to check your facts before posting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms

What she meant is that the US doesn't rely on oil exports for its economy the way that Saudi or Russia do. The US is a manufacturing, service and tech economy. It's also loaded with natural resources. Your attempt at a sting only further shows what strength the US has.

The US has more proven oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined and yet oil isn't the foundation of its economy. Can that lack of reliance be said of Saudi or Russia or many ME or SA countries?

Cheers.

[jpinx]

The US dollar is being talked-up based on what? Shale oil is still too expensive compared to the now-increased barrelage from SA and Iran, and we have not seen the effects of the Yuan being included in the "worlds leading currencies" yet, but given their casino mentality, it's going to be interesting, if not tearful

The US is not an oil-exporting country so the price of shale oil is pretty much irrelevant to the economy (except in those regions where it is pumped). The overall cheaper price of oil/energy has an overall stimulative effect on the economy. Nobody is "talking up" up the US economy...the USA is kicking butt and taking names...that's why the dollar is strong. The BRIC wall has completely crumbled

You really need to check your facts before posting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms

What she meant is that the US doesn't rely on oil exports for its economy the way that Saudi or Russia do. The US is a manufacturing, service and tech economy. It's also loaded with natural resources. Your attempt at a sting only further shows what strength the US has.

The US has more proven oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined and yet oil isn't the foundation of its economy. Can that lack of reliance be said of Saudi or Russia or many ME or SA countries?

Cheers.

Been reading your own hype too much? Here's your reality check

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

and a nice little picture to make it easy to understand - but doesn't include USA 'cos it's not got enough reserves

https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Kuwait/images/proved_oil_reserves.png

[elgenon]

All I know is the new car I was thinking of buying a year or so ago is now $15,000 cheaper for me...for Thais no discount ?

So you're telling the world you are buying a $150,000 car?

[OMGImInPattaya]

The US dollar is being talked-up based on what? Shale oil is still too expensive compared to the now-increased barrelage from SA and Iran, and we have not seen the effects of the Yuan being included in the "worlds leading currencies" yet, but given their casino mentality, it's going to be interesting, if not tearful

The US is not an oil-exporting country so the price of shale oil is pretty much irrelevant to the economy (except in those regions where it is pumped). The overall cheaper price of oil/energy has an overall stimulative effect on the economy. Nobody is "talking up" up the US economy...the USA is kicking butt and taking names...that's why the dollar is strong. The BRIC wall has completely crumbled

You really need to check your facts before posting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms

What she meant is that the US doesn't rely on oil exports for its economy the way that Saudi or Russia do. The US is a manufacturing, service and tech economy. It's also loaded with natural resources. Your attempt at a sting only further shows what strength the US has.

The US has more proven oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined and yet oil isn't the foundation of its economy. Can that lack of reliance be said of Saudi or Russia or many ME or SA countries?

Cheers.

The last time I looked, it was still there ?

[jpinx]

The US dollar is being talked-up based on what? Shale oil is still too expensive compared to the now-increased barrelage from SA and Iran, and we have not seen the effects of the Yuan being included in the "worlds leading currencies" yet, but given their casino mentality, it's going to be interesting, if not tearful

The US is not an oil-exporting country so the price of shale oil is pretty much irrelevant to the economy (except in those regions where it is pumped). The overall cheaper price of oil/energy has an overall stimulative effect on the economy. Nobody is "talking up" up the US economy...the USA is kicking butt and taking names...that's why the dollar is strong. The BRIC wall has completely crumbled

You really need to check your facts before posting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms

What she meant is that the US doesn't rely on oil exports for its economy the way that Saudi or Russia do. The US is a manufacturing, service and tech economy. It's also loaded with natural resources. Your attempt at a sting only further shows what strength the US has.

The US has more proven oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined and yet oil isn't the foundation of its economy. Can that lack of reliance be said of Saudi or Russia or many ME or SA countries?

Cheers.

Here's a few more facts that pop your bubble...

QUOTE-----------

The following export product groups represent the highest dollar value in American global shipments during 2014. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from the United States.

1. Machines, engines, pumps: US$219.8 billion (13.6% of total exports)
2. Electronic equipment: $172.4 billion (10.6%)
3. Oil: $155.6 billion (9.6%)
4. Vehicles: $136 billion (8.4%)
5. Aircraft, spacecraft: $125.2 billion (7.7%)
6. Medical, technical equipment: $85 billion (5.2%)
7. Gems, precious metals, coins: $64.1 billion (4%)
8. Plastics: $63 billion (3.9%)
9. Pharmaceuticals: $44 billion (2.7%)
10. Organic chemicals: $42.3 billion (2.6%)

Driven by processed oils, petroleum gases and to a lesser degree by crude oil, oil was the fastest-growing among the top 10 export categories, up in value by 90.5% for the 5-year period starting in 2010.

------------ END QUOTE

http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-states-top-10-exports/2001

... and....

World oil reserves as compiled by the USA....

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=6&cid=regions&syid=2010&eyid=2014&unit=BB

Now that we have some facts to go on -- what's the reasoning behind the US$ being strong, whilst the Fed is "creating" money out of thin air in it's QE programme..

[Naam]

The US dollar is being talked-up based on what? Shale oil is still too expensive compared to the now-increased barrelage from SA and Iran, and we have not seen the effects of the Yuan being included in the "worlds leading currencies" yet, but given their casino mentality, it's going to be interesting, if not tearful

The US is not an oil-exporting country so the price of shale oil is pretty much irrelevant to the economy (except in those regions where it is pumped). The overall cheaper price of oil/energy has an overall stimulative effect on the economy. Nobody is "talking up" up the US economy...the USA is kicking butt and taking names...that's why the dollar is strong. The BRIC wall has completely crumbled

You really need to check your facts before posting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms

it looks like Bloomberg got it totally wrong and should check the facts because until december 2015 an export ban on crude was in force.

US politicians have approved a measure to lift the 40-year ban on crude oil exports.

The move is part of a $1.1 trillion (£738bn) spending bill approved by the Senate on Friday that will fund the US government until 2016.

US West Texas Crude gained 1.1% to $36.38 a barrel, while Brent rose 0.7% to $37.32 a barrel.

US oil producers will now be able to sell crude to the already saturated international market.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35136831

[OMGImInPattaya]

s that the US doesn't rely on oil exports for its economy the way that Saudi or Russia do. The US is a manufacturing, service and tech economy. It's also loaded with natural resources. Your attempt at a sting only further shows what strength the US has.

The US has more proven oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined and yet oil isn't the foundation of its economy. Can that lack of reliance be said of Saudi or Russia or many ME or SA countries?

Cheers.

Here's a few more facts that pop your bubble...

QUOTE-----------

The following export product groups represent the highest dollar value in American global shipments during 2014. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from the United States.

1. Machines, engines, pumps: US$219.8 billion (13.6% of total exports)
2. Electronic equipment: $172.4 billion (10.6%)
3. Oil: $155.6 billion (9.6%)
4. Vehicles: $136 billion (8.4%)
5. Aircraft, spacecraft: $125.2 billion (7.7%)
6. Medical, technical equipment: $85 billion (5.2%)
7. Gems, precious metals, coins: $64.1 billion (4%)
8. Plastics: $63 billion (3.9%)
9. Pharmaceuticals: $44 billion (2.7%)
10. Organic chemicals: $42.3 billion (2.6%)

Driven by processed oils, petroleum gases and to a lesser degree by crude oil, oil was the fastest-growing among the top 10 export categories, up in value by 90.5% for the 5-year period starting in 2010.

------------ END QUOTE

http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-states-top-10-exports/2001

... and....

World oil reserves as compiled by the USA....

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=6&cid=regions&syid=2010&eyid=2014&unit=BB

Now that we have some facts to go on -- what's the reasoning behind the US$ being strong, whilst the Fed is "creating" money out of thin air in it's QE programme..

What is the point you are straining to make? Exports make up something like 15-20 percent of US GDP...as compared to countries like Germany, China, Japan, and even Thailand where it ranges from 60-80 percent. The ups and downs of the world economy have a much greater affect on these countries than the US. The USA is a vast, resource and agriculturally rich, mostly self-sufficient continental economy...these others often rely on imports of raw materials, oil, and commodities to keep the economy going.

As to "creating money out of thin air," that's what ALL countries do...it's all fiat currencies now dude. They are backed by the confidence people have in the political and economic strength (and future projected growth) of the country that issues them. Right now, the USA looks pretty good...but, of course, this can change.

[Naam]

The US dollar is being talked-up based on what? Shale oil is still too expensive compared to the now-increased barrelage from SA and Iran, and we have not seen the effects of the Yuan being included in the "worlds leading currencies" yet, but given their casino mentality, it's going to be interesting, if not tearful

The US is not an oil-exporting country so the price of shale oil is pretty much irrelevant to the economy (except in those regions where it is pumped). The overall cheaper price of oil/energy has an overall stimulative effect on the economy. Nobody is "talking up" up the US economy...the USA is kicking butt and taking names...that's why the dollar is strong. The BRIC wall has completely crumbled

You really need to check your facts before posting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms

What she meant is that the US doesn't rely on oil exports for its economy the way that Saudi or Russia do. The US is a manufacturing, service and tech economy. It's also loaded with natural resources. Your attempt at a sting only further shows what strength the US has.

The US has more proven oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined and yet oil isn't the foundation of its economy. Can that lack of reliance be said of Saudi or Russia or many ME or SA countries?

Cheers.

perhaps cooking oil but not crude

[OMGImInPattaya]

You really need to check your facts before posting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms

What she meant is that the US doesn't rely on oil exports for its economy the way that Saudi or Russia do. The US is a manufacturing, service and tech economy. It's also loaded with natural resources. Your attempt at a sting only further shows what strength the US has.

The US has more proven oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined and yet oil isn't the foundation of its economy. Can that lack of reliance be said of Saudi or Russia or many ME or SA countries?

Cheers.

perhaps cooking oil but not crude

I've read that if all the potential known shale rock oil formations were included that this may be correct...or at least as much oil that of that of the current known reserves of the Middle East and North Africa.

[jpinx]

What is the point you are straining to make? Exports make up something like 15-20 percent of US GDP...as compared to countries like Germany, China, Japan, and even Thailand where it ranges from 60-80 percent. The ups and downs of the world economy have a much greater affect on these countries than the US. The USA is a vast, resource and agriculturally rich, mostly self-sufficient continental economy...these others often rely on imports of raw materials, oil, and commodities to keep the economy going.

As to "creating money out of thin air," that's what ALL countries do...it's all fiat currencies now dude. They are backed by the confidence people have in the political and economic strength (and future projected growth) of the country that issues them. Right now, the USA looks pretty good...but, of course, this can change.

======================

Only correcting some other posters misconceptions of where the oil reserves are.

US exports are about 30 -35% of gdp, according to the world bank, and Thailand about 133% -- so where's your logic now?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS

[Berkshire]

The US dollar is being talked-up based on what? Shale oil is still too expensive compared to the now-increased barrelage from SA and Iran, and we have not seen the effects of the Yuan being included in the "worlds leading currencies" yet, but given their casino mentality, it's going to be interesting, if not tearful

The US is not an oil-exporting country so the price of shale oil is pretty much irrelevant to the economy (except in those regions where it is pumped). The overall cheaper price of oil/energy has an overall stimulative effect on the economy. Nobody is "talking up" up the US economy...the USA is kicking butt and taking names...that's why the dollar is strong. The BRIC wall has completely crumbled

Agree that the US economy has been doing much better than almost everyone else these past few years. Yes, the USA is "kicking but." President Obama and his administration deserve kudos for this rather amazing turnaround since the catastrophic financial crisis of 2008.

[fletchsmile]

Might help if you posted some more info or links, as to who are these "respected commentators", and which are these "many currencies" they are talking about, and even if it includes the baht

USD/THB is around 36.X

a 30% devaluation would take that to around 47, even 20% would take that to around 43, rather than 40-42.

also today's exchange rate has/had very little to do with the reasons for coup

All suggests really that none of this stacks up and comes across more as "bar talk and rumours"

so a bit more info and links might add some credibility...

And you can link us to your post of two years ago predicting that the baht would weaken from 30-1 on the US$ to 37-1?

I certainly had no idea...and have no idea where it will be in 6 months to a year but the signs of a strong dollar and the continued weakening of export and/or resource commodity export economies country currencies is a pretty sure thing. Even a weakening of another 10% would put the baht over 40 to the dollar...something I don't recall for over a decade.

How could I provide a link to a prediction I never made - never mind the fact you're asking for it from 2 years ago

On the other hand you're making the claim now that "respected commentators" are saying this.and for "many Asian Currencies".

Shouldn't be too difficult to give a bit more info as to who's saying that? and which currencies? and whether they're even talking about the baht at all...

I'm assuming the bit about the coup is your own analysis BTW

Edited January 11, 2016 by fletchsmile

[Robert24]

All I know is the new car I was thinking of buying a year or so ago is now $15,000 cheaper for me...for Thais no discount [emoji3]

that's an expensive car though;)

[Stevemercer]

I don't know about the US dollar, but the Thai Baht is certainly high compared to other SE Asian countries with which Thailand competes for exports. If the Thai government is serious about helping exports, they need to drive the Baht down 10 - 15% against similar trading currencies. I would have thought that this would be more of a policy driver for the Baht than the US dollar (even if the outcome is the same).

[Gutenberg]

Right now, the USA looks pretty good...but, of course, this can change.

This sums up the whole discussion quite good.

I would even say that there is no doubt that there will be another big crises for US/EU in the near future, 2018, 2019, 2020. Be prepared.

In regard to other world powers, however, the US will always at the top, regardless if the THB weakens or strengthens. Strongest alliances over the world, US and EU will always be partners in hard times, including countries all over the world who will only ask how high if USA says jump. But don't be fooled or proud, it's the wall street who controls this, not your random US citizen.

Look what happens at Russia, stuck in multiple unwinnable wars against ISIS/EU, little sanctions and their currency lost 60%. What about Brazil? Same thing, massive social problems, e.g. poverty. China? They basically have only their cheap labor, what happens if everything is done by robots?

It's the technology what brings us forward and it's without a doubt who's the boss there, EU and USA.

[OMGImInPattaya]

What is the point you are straining to make? Exports make up something like 15-20 percent of US GDP...as compared to countries like Germany, China, Japan, and even Thailand where it ranges from 60-80 percent. The ups and downs of the world economy have a much greater affect on these countries than the US. The USA is a vast, resource and agriculturally rich, mostly self-sufficient continental economy...these others often rely on imports of raw materials, oil, and commodities to keep the economy going.

As to "creating money out of thin air," that's what ALL countries do...it's all fiat currencies now dude. They are backed by the confidence people have in the political and economic strength (and future projected growth) of the country that issues them. Right now, the USA looks pretty good...but, of course, this can change.

======================

Only correcting some other posters misconceptions of where the oil reserves are.

US exports are about 30 -35% of gdp, according to the world bank, and Thailand about 133% -- so where's your logic now?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS

I'm still trying to wrap hy head around an economy where exports make up 133% of GDP ? So if a country exports 33 percent more than it produces is it re-exporting stuff it imports?

And for the 30-35% for the US, the same logic applies. The United states economy is primarily based on domestic demand and consumption and not on exports, as are other major economies like Germany, China, Japan, and for that matter Thailand.

Edited January 11, 2016 by OMGImInPattaya

[jpinx]

What is the point you are straining to make? Exports make up something like 15-20 percent of US GDP...as compared to countries like Germany, China, Japan, and even Thailand where it ranges from 60-80 percent. The ups and downs of the world economy have a much greater affect on these countries than the US. The USA is a vast, resource and agriculturally rich, mostly self-sufficient continental economy...these others often rely on imports of raw materials, oil, and commodities to keep the economy going.

As to "creating money out of thin air," that's what ALL countries do...it's all fiat currencies now dude. They are backed by the confidence people have in the political and economic strength (and future projected growth) of the country that issues them. Right now, the USA looks pretty good...but, of course, this can change.

======================

Only correcting some other posters misconceptions of where the oil reserves are.

US exports are about 30 -35% of gdp, according to the world bank, and Thailand about 133% -- so where's your logic now?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS

I'm still trying to wrap hy head around an economy where exports make up 133% of GDP ? So if a country exports 33 percent more than it produces is it re-exporting stuff it imports?

And for the 30-35% for the US, the same logic applies. The United states economy is primarily based on domestic demand and consumption and not on exports, as are other major economies like Germany, China, Japan, and for that matter Thailand.

Me too -- but on looking again, I think that's total trade - not just exports. Statistics online are always something to be tackled with a long broom handle

Anyway -- my comment was that I think the US dollar is over-valued for political purposes, but that's not likely to change even if Trump gets in because Wall St can not countenance another crash....

[OMGImInPattaya]

Might help if you posted some more info or links, as to who are these "respected commentators", and which are these "many currencies" they are talking about, and even if it includes the baht

USD/THB is around 36.X

a 30% devaluation would take that to around 47, even 20% would take that to around 43, rather than 40-42.

also today's exchange rate has/had very little to do with the reasons for coup

All suggests really that none of this stacks up and comes across more as "bar talk and rumours"

so a bit more info and links might add some credibility...

And you can link us to your post of two years ago predicting that the baht would weaken from 30-1 on the US$ to 37-1?

I certainly had no idea...and have no idea where it will be in 6 months to a year but the signs of a strong dollar and the continued weakening of export and/or resource commodity export economies country currencies is a pretty sure thing. Even a weakening of another 10% would put the baht over 40 to the dollar...something I don't recall for over a decade.

How could I provide a link to a prediction I never made - never mind the fact you're asking for it from 2 years ago

On the other hand you're making the claim now that "respected commentators" are saying this.and for "many Asian Currencies".

Shouldn't be too difficult to give a bit more info as to who's saying that? and which currencies? and whether they're even talking about the baht at all...

I'm assuming the bit about the coup is your own analysis BTW

The argument is that China is in a world of hurt and the leg the Chinese economy has to stand on is exports. I mean, they gotta keep 1.5 billion people clothed, housed, and fed. In order to stoke demand, they gotta increase exports in a sluggish world economy. How to do this...make them cheaper by devalueing their currency (which they've been doing).

In order to compete, the other export dependent Asian countries, like Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and their SE Asian brethren, will have to follow suit. It's just something I read and posted on...you're free to disagree completely ☺

[OMGImInPattaya]

What is the point you are straining to make? Exports make up something like 15-20 percent of US GDP...as compared to countries like Germany, China, Japan, and even Thailand where it ranges from 60-80 percent. The ups and downs of the world economy have a much greater affect on these countries than the US. The USA is a vast, resource and agriculturally rich, mostly self-sufficient continental economy...these others often rely on imports of raw materials, oil, and commodities to keep the economy going.

As to "creating money out of thin air," that's what ALL countries do...it's all fiat currencies now dude. They are backed by the confidence people have in the political and economic strength (and future projected growth) of the country that issues them. Right now, the USA looks pretty good...but, of course, this can change.

======================

Only correcting some other posters misconceptions of where the oil reserves are.

US exports are about 30 -35% of gdp, according to the world bank, and Thailand about 133% -- so where's your logic now?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS

I'm still trying to wrap hy head around an economy where exports make up 133% of GDP ? So if a country exports 33 percent more than it produces is it re-exporting stuff it imports?

And for the 30-35% for the US, the same logic applies. The United states economy is primarily based on domestic demand and consumption and not on exports, as are other major economies like Germany, China, Japan, and for that matter Thailand.

Me too -- but on looking again, I think that's total trade - not just exports. Statistics online are always something to be tackled with a long broom handle

Anyway -- my comment was that I think the US dollar is over-valued for political purposes, but that's not likely to change even if Trump gets in because Wall St can not countenance another crash....

Over-valued for "political purposes." What do you mean...by whom and for what purpose...can you eloborate? Countries can, and do, manipulate their currencies for various reasons but I don't think there is a concerted effort on the part of the Fed or Treasury right now for a particularly strong dollar. I think the shattered state of Europe China and the relative strength and dynamism of he United States accounts for the dollars current strength.

[jpinx]

What is the point you are straining to make? Exports make up something like 15-20 percent of US GDP...as compared to countries like Germany, China, Japan, and even Thailand where it ranges from 60-80 percent. The ups and downs of the world economy have a much greater affect on these countries than the US. The USA is a vast, resource and agriculturally rich, mostly self-sufficient continental economy...these others often rely on imports of raw materials, oil, and commodities to keep the economy going.

As to "creating money out of thin air," that's what ALL countries do...it's all fiat currencies now dude. They are backed by the confidence people have in the political and economic strength (and future projected growth) of the country that issues them. Right now, the USA looks pretty good...but, of course, this can change.

======================

Only correcting some other posters misconceptions of where the oil reserves are.

US exports are about 30 -35% of gdp, according to the world bank, and Thailand about 133% -- so where's your logic now?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS

I'm still trying to wrap hy head around an economy where exports make up 133% of GDP ? So if a country exports 33 percent more than it produces is it re-exporting stuff it imports?

And for the 30-35% for the US, the same logic applies. The United states economy is primarily based on domestic demand and consumption and not on exports, as are other major economies like Germany, China, Japan, and for that matter Thailand.

Me too -- but on looking again, I think that's total trade - not just exports. Statistics online are always something to be tackled with a long broom handle

Anyway -- my comment was that I think the US dollar is over-valued for political purposes, but that's not likely to change even if Trump gets in because Wall St can not countenance another crash....

Over-valued for "political purposes." What do you mean...by whom and for what purpose...can you eloborate? Countries can, and do, manipulate their currencies for various reasons but I don't think there is a concerted effort on the part of the Fed or Treasury right now for a particularly strong dollar. I think the shattered state of Europe China and the relative strength and dynamism of he United States accounts for the dollars current strength.

The whole thing with Quantitative Easing is manipulation on a grand scale. Certainly the Euro has major problems, but the pound is not wobbling too much. The mess that is immigration is straining confidence in europe and a solution needs to be found - and quick, before another million arrive. The on-going circus that is a US presidential election will make the markets nervous too, and as I have said in several threads before, it's not so important who wins, it's more about regaining stability. So -- to get back to the topic,,, Asian currencies are now more likely to follow the Yuan than the dollar -- now that the Yuan is at the "top table", and with elections coming here too, that's going to expose any weakness pretty quickly. The question will be which currency will lose value least, and recover fastest ?

[bazza40]

The only thing OVER- Valued is the Euro / US Dollar.

There are a zillion factors affecting currency exchange rates, But one key factor remains: Where is economic growth happening?

In Europe? =Dismal.

US? = Slightly above dismal.

SE/Asia = growth prospects still intact.

The century of European / US military / economic dominance is coming to an end. Let's face it ! Other powers will fill the void. Who could that be? (It's not going to be Africa)! Who remains?

Cheers.

So who will dominate? Some collapsing communist country?

The world is also going to end in 2012! Whoops...it didn't...it's 2016 already. Never mind.

My vote is Thailand becomes a world power and the Baht a world reserve currency....and also Texas succeeds from the U.S. to become a world power with George W. Bush as its leader---now when these two things happen the world will indeed come to an end.

Considering Trump is in the running to become the Republican presidential candidate, Thailand as a world power doesn't seem so far-fetched.

[sandyf]

Over-valued for "political purposes." What do you mean...by whom and for what purpose...can you eloborate? Countries can, and do, manipulate their currencies for various reasons but I don't think there is a concerted effort on the part of the Fed or Treasury right now for a particularly strong dollar. I think the shattered state of Europe China and the relative strength and dynamism of he United States accounts for the dollars current strength.

The answer to that would be removed as conspiracy theory.

[Robert24]

Might help if you posted some more info or links, as to who are these "respected commentators", and which are these "many currencies" they are talking about, and even if it includes the baht

USD/THB is around 36.X

a 30% devaluation would take that to around 47, even 20% would take that to around 43, rather than 40-42.

also today's exchange rate has/had very little to do with the reasons for coup

All suggests really that none of this stacks up and comes across more as "bar talk and rumours"

so a bit more info and links might add some credibility...

And you can link us to your post of two years ago predicting that the baht would weaken from 30-1 on the US$ to 37-1?

I certainly had no idea...and have no idea where it will be in 6 months to a year but the signs of a strong dollar and the continued weakening of export and/or resource commodity export economies country currencies is a pretty sure thing. Even a weakening of another 10% would put the baht over 40 to the dollar...something I don't recall for over a decade.

How could I provide a link to a prediction I never made - never mind the fact you're asking for it from 2 years ago

On the other hand you're making the claim now that "respected commentators" are saying this.and for "many Asian Currencies".

Shouldn't be too difficult to give a bit more info as to who's saying that? and which currencies? and whether they're even talking about the baht at all...

I'm assuming the bit about the coup is your own analysis BTW

The argument is that China is in a world of hurt and the leg the Chinese economy has to stand on is exports. I mean, they gotta keep 1.5 billion people clothed, housed, and fed. In order to stoke demand, they gotta increase exports in a sluggish world economy. How to do this...make them cheaper by devalueing their currency (which they've been doing).

In order to compete, the other export dependent Asian countries, like Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and their SE Asian brethren, will have to follow suit. It's just something I read and posted on...you're free to disagree completely [emoji5]

PBOC is doing the opposite. Keep Yuan strong, buy Yuan/sell$ hence foreign reserves are down $500bn over the last 6 months. So yes I disagree with your point. The pressure on the Yuan comes from capital flight from China.

[charmonman]

Not sure where they get the figures -- but looking at XE over a ten year graph, it's clear that the lowest value was a shade under 35/US$, so dreaming of 38 or more is just that -- dreaming......

FWIW -- the drop these "experts" are talking about as being over the last 2 years are actually all since about May2015

Gotta love XE graphs for shooting down "experts"

Aside from the actual 10 year high for the USD vs THB being just under 40 rather than 35 as you state, what exactly makes you think that the 10 year high puts any sort of limit on what it could get to in the near or medium term future? The USD is now at a 12 year high against the Canadian dollar and I'm sure there are many other currencies in the same condition given the USD strength. Why would the THB be any different?

[bangkapi]

It's all faith based "funny money" anyway, backed by nothing but faith in particular governments and central banks.

[Naam]

Not sure where they get the figures -- but looking at XE over a ten year graph, it's clear that the lowest value was a shade under 35/US$, so dreaming of 38 or more is just that -- dreaming......

FWIW -- the drop these "experts" are talking about as being over the last 2 years are actually all since about May2015

Gotta love XE graphs for shooting down "experts"

Aside from the actual 10 year high for the USD vs THB being just under 40 rather than 35 as you state, what exactly makes you think that the 10 year high puts any sort of limit on what it could get to in the near or medium term future? The USD is now at a 12 year high against the Canadian dollar and I'm sure there are many other currencies in the same condition given the USD strength. Why would the THB be any different?

beancounters (like me) call it a 7 year high

[Naam]

It's all faith based "funny money" anyway, backed by nothing but faith in particular governments and central banks.

but we all, and that includes you, would like to have huge amounts of this "funny money"

[jpinx]

It's all faith based "funny money" anyway, backed by nothing but faith in particular governments and central banks.

but we all, and that includes you, would like to have huge amounts of this "funny money"

Funny beans ?

[IMA_FARANG]

I first came to Thailand in 1977 and I can remember the days when a dollar bought 25 Baht.

Now the exchange rate is up to 36 to a dollar.

I remember very well in 2011 getting 28.9 Baht at the bank for my Dollar pension exchange rate.

For last month (January) the exchange rate was 35.84 Baht to a dollar.

I'm not complaining.

Edited January 13, 2016 by IMA_FARANG

[jpinx]

I first came to Thailand in 1977 and I can remember the days when a dollar bought 25 Baht.

Now the exchange rate is up to 36 to a dollar.

I remember very well in 2011 getting 28.9 Baht at the bank for my Dollar pension exchange rate.

For last month (January) the exchange rate was 35.84 Baht to a dollar.

I'm not complaining.

Agreed -- but set that against the background of prices of things then and now