Thailand records first trade surplus in five years

[webfact]

Thailand records first trade surplus in five years
By Nopparat Chaichalearmmongkol

BANGKOK--Thailand ended 2015 with trade surplus for the first time in five years despite continued export and import contraction.

The Commerce Ministry said Tuesday that the country recorded a trade surplus of $1.48 billion in December, compared with $299 million in November. For the whole of 2015, Thailand's trade surplus stood at $11.72 billion -- its first surplus since 2010.

Thai exports contracted 8.73% from a year earlier in December to $17.1 billion, accelerating from a 7.24% year-over-year drop in the preceding month.

Full story: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/thailand-records-first-trade-surplus-in-five-years-2016-01-26

-- Market Watch 2016-01-26

[webfact]

Thailand has first trade surplus in five years
BY LARRY BANKS



BANGKOK: -- Thailand finished 2015 with a trade surplus for the first time in five years, despite the continued contraction of imports and exports.

On Tuesday, the country’s Commerce Ministry said that the country had a trade surplus of $1.48 billion in December compared with $299 million in November. And for the entire year, Thailand’s trade surplus was $11.72 billion in 2015, it’s first since 2010.

Thai exports fell 8.73 percent from a year earlier in December to $17.1 billion, from a 7.24 percent year over year drop the month before.

And in 2015, overseas shipment values fell 5.78 percent from the previous year, just above the ministry’s projection of a 5.5 percent contraction.

The ministry said Thailand’s third consecutive year of contraction in exports was down to a slow economic outlook around the world and falling oil and agricultural product prices, putting pressure on exports.

Full story: http://ethailand.com/business-news/thailand-first-trade-surplus-five-years/1461/

-- eThailand 2016-01-26

[anon467848]

Somebody must be cooking the books.

[ExpatOilWorker]

$12 billion is an impressive surplus, but I will say that half of that is due low oil price. The rest could reflect a slow down in manufacturing.

[inaktive]

it is just the cheap oil .... and after 5 years of shrink of their exports they get more and more dependent on Tourists to bring in hard currency

[Hawk]

It may sound good but its not, each year the trade surplus is getting smaller and smaller. The Thai economy is sliding badly. We all know why by now.

[Guest]

it is just the cheap oil .... and after 5 years of shrink of their exports they get more and more dependent on Tourists to bring in hard currency

Are you just pulling this out of your arse, or do you have a 5 year / adjusted for inflation / rate of Foreign Currency Inflow data set to refer to?

Or .. do you not understand that relatively speaking, the slight variations in the tourist trade are a drop in the bucket compared to massive agricultural and manufacturing exports?

Oh the Thai Visa Self Important Brigade, always trying to prove how the Kingdom is but a kite at the end of their mighty string, and should they depart ===>

"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"

555

[Guest]

It may sound good but its not, each year the trade surplus is getting smaller and smaller. The Thai economy is sliding badly. We all know why by now.

You have our full attention Please..."go on"

The Thai economy is sliding badly because _________________________________________________________>

[maewang99]

because it's exports are increasingly the kind of things the world can manufacture elsewhere. less expensively. and the kinds of things it would need to do to broach the Middle Income Trap are impossible in a country where there is no education system. most of the population is illiterate. being able to just read words is not enough, you have to be able to do it effectively and think about what you read and most of all, you need to want to learn. thus the kind of services and higher value exports that would be competitive as technology advances requires foreign workers, not just foreign supervision. yet the country is all but closed off. Thailand is not Japan or South Korea to any degree at all. there are zero Elon Musk's or Bill Gate's, both of whom are famously voracious book and journal readers and both credit their reading habits not just for their success in business but in their personal lives as well. look around you. and there's other stuff too, but I think this is the biggest issue by far. it's real obvious. and in Thailand it's not just the all but totally ineffective education system, it is deeply cultural.

not all of the population needs to be literate, but a certain percentage of folks must be. and the magic number is certainly not a single digit percentage number such as 1% or 2%, yet I doubt it's even 1% in Thailand. non fiction books and journals of every kind, not comic books and romance novels. these are things that are read and studied after one finishes university and graduate school, or never even goes to university, and never stops until you are dead.

the measure of a country's education system is how much people read after they get out of school. and it is people that make all of the difference. the old saying is "anyone who stops being a student, never was a student". and in today's world we just don't need unskilled labor, no matter how obedient or cheap it is, yet the Thai system only churns out that kind of worker, and medical doctors. as to the latter, the story will be even more dramatic. going back to the earliest days of computer science as a field of study, we have known, and we have ever indication it is true today, that medical doctors will be the earliest and most 'relieved' job occupation as AI takes off.

watch the Davos 2016 forum on AI. it's right there, and we are very close.

the cheap oil reprieve will be fairly short lived, it's getting really late for real reforms.

Edited January 26, 2016 by maewang99

[NCC1701A]

Did I read this right,?

$299 million in November and the next month it was $1. 48 billion. Hell of a month.

[chiang mai]

it is just the cheap oil .... and after 5 years of shrink of their exports they get more and more dependent on Tourists to bring in hard currency

Are you just pulling this out of your arse, or do you have a 5 year / adjusted for inflation / rate of Foreign Currency Inflow data set to refer to?

Or .. do you not understand that relatively speaking, the slight variations in the tourist trade are a drop in the bucket compared to massive agricultural and manufacturing exports?

Oh the Thai Visa Self Important Brigade, always trying to prove how the Kingdom is but a kite at the end of their mighty string, and should they depart ===>

"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"

555

Having a bad day or are you like this every day!

[MaeJoMTB]

Or .. do you not understand that relatively speaking, the slight variations in the tourist trade are a drop in the bucket compared to massive agricultural and manufacturing exports?

Lemme see,

Samsung and LG have closed plants,

A couple of car manufacturers have gone,

Rice and Rubber seem to have failed.

What have they got left?

[kotsak]

Or .. do you not understand that relatively speaking, the slight variations in the tourist trade are a drop in the bucket compared to massive agricultural and manufacturing exports?

Lemme see,

Samsung and LG have closed plants,

A couple of car manufacturers have gone,

Rice and Rubber seem to have failed.

What have they got left?

Couldn't resist

[Eric Loh]

Most reading the news upside down. The trade surplus came about due to a massive drop in import. The 9.23% import reduction is a signal of stoppage and stagnation of domestic production because enterprises have to stop their production so they dont import raw materials or because of reduced power market. It's actually bad news and a spiraling downwards of the economy.

[PaullyW]

Or .. do you not understand that relatively speaking, the slight variations in the tourist trade are a drop in the bucket compared to massive agricultural and manufacturing exports?

Lemme see,

Samsung and LG have closed plants,

A couple of car manufacturers have gone,

Rice and Rubber seem to have failed.

What have they got left?

I hear p@s&y is doing great as always.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Or .. do you not understand that relatively speaking, the slight variations in the tourist trade are a drop in the bucket compared to massive agricultural and manufacturing exports?

Lemme see,

Samsung and LG have closed plants,

A couple of car manufacturers have gone,

Rice and Rubber seem to have failed.

What have they got left?

I hear p@s&y is doing great as always.

Right, but they are not included in the trade balance. Revenue from tourism are included in the currency account balance, but not in the trade balance.

You can bring the memories home, but they stay here.

Edited January 26, 2016 by ExpatOilWorker

[Shroud]

The drop in exports and imports are coinciding. However, the outlook for imports are frightening. A massive drop of 11.02% compared to exports sliding to 5.78% from a year earlier.

Main reason for the first recorded surplus is due to falling imports. Thai Central Bank forecast zero-growth-export in 2016.

Remember, the real chaos in China hasn't even begun...

Edited January 26, 2016 by Shroud

[Guest]

it is just the cheap oil .... and after 5 years of shrink of their exports they get more and more dependent on Tourists to bring in hard currency

Are you just pulling this out of your arse, or do you have a 5 year / adjusted for inflation / rate of Foreign Currency Inflow data set to refer to?

Or .. do you not understand that relatively speaking, the slight variations in the tourist trade are a drop in the bucket compared to massive agricultural and manufacturing exports?

Oh the Thai Visa Self Important Brigade, always trying to prove how the Kingdom is but a kite at the end of their mighty string, and should they depart ===>

"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"

555

Having a bad day or are you like this every day!

If by that you mean ... having studied and worked in economic and finance circles, in a role as a decision maker for firms with sales in excess of $250,000,000 USD annually .. am I driven by empirical data and not "Look Ma, I pulled this 'fact' out of my arse???"

Yes. And very, very happy in that.

(Example) Thailand exported 10.8 million tons of milled rice valued at US$5.37 billion in 2014.

Do you really believe that Tom the Pom's contribution to the Pattaya Chang Gang is worth a piss hole in the snow compared to that?

Sorry to bore you with the facts ... please return to viewing Fox News.

[Guest]

Or .. do you not understand that relatively speaking, the slight variations in the tourist trade are a drop in the bucket compared to massive agricultural and manufacturing exports?

Lemme see,

Samsung and LG have closed plants,

A couple of car manufacturers have gone,

Rice and Rubber seem to have failed.

What have they got left?

Couldn't resist

Neither can I ...

(Example) Thailand exported 10.8 million tons of milled rice valued at US$5.37 billion in 2014.

Do you really believe that Tom the Pom's contribution to the Pattaya Chang Gang is worth a piss hole in the snow compared to that?

Sorry to bore you with the facts ... please return to viewing Fox News.

[phoenixdoglover]

Or .. do you not understand that relatively speaking, the slight variations in the tourist trade are a drop in the bucket compared to massive agricultural and manufacturing exports?

Lemme see,

Samsung and LG have closed plants,

A couple of car manufacturers have gone,

Rice and Rubber seem to have failed.

What have they got left?

Couldn't resist

Neither can I ...

(Example) Thailand exported 10.8 million tons of milled rice valued at US$5.37 billion in 2014.

Do you really believe that Tom the Pom's contribution to the Pattaya Chang Gang is worth a piss hole in the snow compared to that?

Sorry to bore you with the facts ... please return to viewing Fox News.

It would be wise to consider also sales of excess stock in 2015, and prospects for rice growing in an extended drought. 2016 could be a letdown.

[pmugghc]

The drop in exports and imports are coinciding. However, the outlook for imports are frightening. A massive drop of 11.02% compared to exports sliding to 5.78% from a year earlier.

Main reason for the first recorded surplus is due to falling imports. Thai Central Bank forecast zero-growth-export in 2016.

Remember, the real chaos in China hasn't even begun...

How much of the reduction in imports is due to the much lower oil price?

[stickyrice2000]

The surplus does not mean that Thailand economy is dong better. Both import and export dropped for the year. People consume and spend less than before.

[Dumbastheycome]

because it's exports are increasingly the kind of things the world can manufacture elsewhere. less expensively. and the kinds of things it would need to do to broach the Middle Income Trap are impossible in a country where there is no education system. most of the population is illiterate. being able to just read words is not enough, you have to be able to do it effectively and think about what you read and most of all, you need to want to learn. thus the kind of services and higher value exports that would be competitive as technology advances requires foreign workers, not just foreign supervision. yet the country is all but closed off. Thailand is not Japan or South Korea to any degree at all. there are zero Elon Musk's or Bill Gate's, both of whom are famously voracious book and journal readers and both credit their reading habits not just for their success in business but in their personal lives as well. look around you. and there's other stuff too, but I think this is the biggest issue by far. it's real obvious. and in Thailand it's not just the all but totally ineffective education system, it is deeply cultural.

not all of the population needs to be literate, but a certain percentage of folks must be. and the magic number is certainly not a single digit percentage number such as 1% or 2%, yet I doubt it's even 1% in Thailand. non fiction books and journals of every kind, not comic books and romance novels. these are things that are read and studied after one finishes university and graduate school, or never even goes to university, and never stops until you are dead.

the measure of a country's education system is how much people read after they get out of school. and it is people that make all of the difference. the old saying is "anyone who stops being a student, never was a student". and in today's world we just don't need unskilled labor, no matter how obedient or cheap it is, yet the Thai system only churns out that kind of worker, and medical doctors. as to the latter, the story will be even more dramatic. going back to the earliest days of computer science as a field of study, we have known, and we have ever indication it is true today, that medical doctors will be the earliest and most 'relieved' job occupation as AI takes off.

watch the Davos 2016 forum on AI. it's right there, and we are very close.

the cheap oil reprieve will be fairly short lived, it's getting really late for real reforms.

Ignored is the exponential growth in population. Whereas 15 years ago a figure of between 6 and 10 % of a population needed :high" education that has now been reduced to around 3 to 4%. And that is mostly applicable to developed countries.

Thailand is still catagorized as a developing country. Yes, its education levels are below western standard.

But it has improved basic education while promoting higher education at personal cost. Exactly the same as western countries!

The advent of technology reducing the need for technological education is the conundrum of modern societies.

Despite denials the west is declining and the east is gaining equilibrium.

Thailand has produced many initiative technologies but have had to surrender them to the financial backers in the west.

This falsely supports the impression that it has no technological capacity.

Gone is the era of "reading" as such.

In support of dumbing down societies printed material is rapidly becoming electronic headlining at the same time "social" electronic participation is being promoted as a mandatory. And the content of that is hardly inspirational !

Bill Gates and his ilk may be very successful business people but can you assure me or anybody that he actually knows the technology of the product? And does he need to ? Or does he simply need to know where source the resources to employ people to know the technology in the understanding of the business potential?

Success is not only about acquiring educated technologies. In fact it is about recognizing potentials and social interaction.

And success in that is not necessarily about money !

Thailand is currently undergoing attempted reforms not in the interest of the west but in attempt to dismiss the decline of the west.

Late may be better than never.

The west is late to recognize that it is late to recognize!

[Shroud]

The drop in exports and imports are coinciding. However, the outlook for imports are frightening. A massive drop of 11.02% compared to exports sliding to 5.78% from a year earlier.

Main reason for the first recorded surplus is due to falling imports. Thai Central Bank forecast zero-growth-export in 2016.

Remember, the real chaos in China hasn't even begun...

How much of the reduction in imports is due to the much lower oil price?

In general, oil imports are down from an all time high of 50,374 m/l from 2013 to 43,038 m/l in 2015. -15% as we speak.

However, I don't necessary believe that oil prices have a significant impact since it affects the economy as a whole. Basically, if Thailand would start importing cheaper oil, then it would also be cheaper to export goods and services. As a matter of fact, cheaper oil prices should spur consumer spending and eventually lead to more imports. That is however not the case. One could also argue that countries import a lot more oil when it's cheaper. 80% of imports are non fuels.

Gasoline prices are down to $0.9L from the highs of $1.17L in 2014, not so much of a drop.

What's interesting is how tied the Thai economy is to China. See at the Graph below,

[Guest]

Quote: "It would be wise to consider also sales of excess stock in 2015, and prospects for rice growing in an extended drought. 2016 could be a letdown."

(1) The thesis here was the relative (non) importance of fluctuations in tourist revenue over the past years. This does not mean that tourist income is not important .. again .. the fluctuations in it are a drop in the economic numbers relative to exports.

(2) My crystal ball is broken in terms of Net Yield of the rice crop, and as you know .. that mountain a grade B rice left over is a whole other kettle of fish.

[elgordo38]

Did I read this right,?

$299 million in November and the next month it was $1. 48 billion. Hell of a month.

May have to revisit them once they stop bouncing around. With all economies slowing its a big leap in faith from 299 million to 1.48 billion. Don't forget in 1997 when the IMF opened the cupboard and found it bare.

[inaktive]

it is just the cheap oil .... and after 5 years of shrink of their exports they get more and more dependent on Tourists to bring in hard currency

Are you just pulling this out of your arse, or do you have a 5 year / adjusted for inflation / rate of Foreign Currency Inflow data set to refer to?

Or .. do you not understand that relatively speaking, the slight variations in the tourist trade are a drop in the bucket compared to massive agricultural and manufacturing exports?

Oh the Thai Visa Self Important Brigade, always trying to prove how the Kingdom is but a kite at the end of their mighty string, and should they depart ===>

"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"

555

Having a bad day or are you like this every day!

If by that you mean ... having studied and worked in economic and finance circles, in a role as a decision maker for firms with sales in excess of $250,000,000 USD annually .. am I driven by empirical data and not "Look Ma, I pulled this 'fact' out of my arse???"

Yes. And very, very happy in that.

(Example) Thailand exported 10.8 million tons of milled rice valued at US$5.37 billion in 2014.

Do you really believe that Tom the Pom's contribution to the Pattaya Chang Gang is worth a piss hole in the snow compared to that?

Sorry to bore you with the facts ... please return to viewing Fox News.

Did you even READ and understood the Article ?

Thailands Exports are contracting for years. Not even the Government says otherwise ...

They do make less and less money exporting stuff because the volume is of their exports is going down and a country like Thailand need either the Exports or Tourism so they can get "hard currency" to pay for stuff they buy from places where they need to pay in $ or Euros or such. Like Smartphones , TVs, machineries and tools , oil , etc.

"

The value of farm products from Thailand fell 7.4 percent last year led by plunging rubber, rice and frozen/processed seafood shipments, that fell 16 percent, 15.2 percent and 14.5 percent respectively.

Thailand’s industry goods exports also fell by 4 percent despite a 4.3 gain in automotive exports, accounting for 14.6 percent of total exports in 2015, according to the ministry’s report.

"

and it is very nice that "Thailand exported 10.8 million tons of milled rice valued at US$5.37 billion in 2014" but in 2015 is was 16% less. Thats all the Article and me are saying and they only made a Surplus (first in 5 years) because the Imports (that does include OIL!) fell more than the Exports did fall.

and the 5.37 BILLION $ they made 2014 exporting Rice is nothing compared to the 72.2 BILLION $ they made from Tourism in the same year !

https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic%20impact%20research/countries%202015/thailand2015.pdf

Sure the Average Joe sitting in a Bar is not important because he doesnt spent that much cash .. but he and his 30 Million other Tourists Buddies TOGETHER are good for over 5 Million JOBs (direct and indirect) and that means that about 14.3% of the Thais working only have a JOB because of the Tourists and a total of 19.3 % of the GDP are based on Tourism ! Thats pretty much 1 in 5 THB made in Thailand!

And they do expect it to rise to over 25% of the GDP in the next 10 years !!!!

So where are my numbers wrong ? Isn't Exports shrinking for years ? Isnt the TOTAL of Tourism already pretty much whats keeping Thailand afloat financially ? Isnt the Role of tourism in Thiland not getting bigger and bigger each year ?

For the Rich in BKK perhaps the individual Tourist is not important but for the average Joe on the street they should be because in pretty much every family some live of Tourism and if they loose these Jobs it will be bad. And if the small people dont have cash anymore or/and cant pay their credits the Rich will notice that too because it is many many small people ....

[Guest]

The drop in exports and imports are coinciding. However, the outlook for imports are frightening. A massive drop of 11.02% compared to exports sliding to 5.78% from a year earlier.

Main reason for the first recorded surplus is due to falling imports. Thai Central Bank forecast zero-growth-export in 2016.

Remember, the real chaos in China hasn't even begun...

How much of the reduction in imports is due to the much lower oil price?

In general, oil imports are down from an all time high of 50,374 m/l from 2013 to 43,038 m/l in 2015. -15% as we speak.

However, I don't necessary believe that oil prices have a significant impact since it affects the economy as a whole. Basically, if Thailand would start importing cheaper oil, then it would also be cheaper to export goods and services. As a matter of fact, cheaper oil prices should spur consumer spending and eventually lead to more imports. That is however not the case. One could also argue that countries import a lot more oil when it's cheaper. 80% of imports are non fuels.

Gasoline prices are down to $0.9L from the highs of $1.17L in 2014, not so much of a drop.

What's interesting is how tied the Thai economy is to China. See at the Graph below,

Skärmavbild 2016-01-26 kl. 22.43.50.png

Things that make you go "hmmmm"

I see a downward sloping channel verses an upward sloping channel.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Guest

[ExpatOilWorker]

The drop in exports and imports are coinciding. However, the outlook for imports are frightening. A massive drop of 11.02% compared to exports sliding to 5.78% from a year earlier.

Main reason for the first recorded surplus is due to falling imports. Thai Central Bank forecast zero-growth-export in 2016.

Remember, the real chaos in China hasn't even begun...

How much of the reduction in imports is due to the much lower oil price?

Thailand import about 700,000 bbls/day and lets be conservative and say oil is on average $35 cheaper in 2015 then 2014, that is a saving of $9 billion.

[chiang mai]

Consumption and volume have changed little, it's only the dollar value that accounts for the surplus.