Listen To What The People Say, Thaksin

[brazil]

yes sounds about right the country will explode

just shows you that he has a little more support than the media dictates to us

better he stay away then

i retract my earlier post on the grounds of profound sleepiness

and keep the one word

'propaganda'

[brazil]

does anyone have any predictions on a more subtle angle on what may occur in thailand over the next 12 months?

[Plus]

i did not realize that so many people on this post believe what they read in the media right now as being the absolute gospel, as anyone actually heard of the word propaganda on this thread.

if the law courts can find taksin guilty. fine arrest the man, if not then allow the man to return.

Why would you trust the court of law in Thailand? Ok, they've been told to behave and start doing their jobs a few months ago, but that's just another example of their "independence".

Come to think of it, it's far more difficult to tame the media like the Nation than the courts. Even now, under martial law, their editorials and analysis buried deep inside are often complete opposite of what they put on front pages.

taksin as a thai national and yet to be charged for any counts of fraud by the new government should be able to come back to thailand.

Not by CNS reasoning, and they are the law now.

I DO wonder what will they do if Thaksin sneaks into the country. Will they arrest him? Will they quietly deport him? Will they put him under house arrest/close observation?

They publicly denied that they are monitoring his movements in China.

[Plus]

Seing their own dismise, they will probably try to make a deal and earn a nice retirement (same for the "government", a holly bunch of old schoolers, without clue whatsoever of what's going on and with absolutly zero ideas).

They are nowhere near demise, and they don't need retirement money as they have already retired. These old guys are the ones who ACTUALLY RUN the country, and have been for decades. Not personally, of course - they have governments as their front men. Thaksin thought for a moment that the country was free for all, you only need votes. It doesn't work that way here. You need approval from "elite" first. It's THEIR country.

As soon as Thaksin crossed their path, he paid the price.

Thaksin will never, never give up. The Coup has given him a insane boost : he wants, he's dying to take his revenge.

He's a coward, he's not looking for confrontation when his life is at stake - he's a businessmen, not a warrior. He'll strike a deal.

Edited November 3, 2006 by Plus

[lukamar]

he's a businessmen, not a warrior. He'll strike a deal.

He may indeed eventually strike a deal, to get the country back.

[Old Man River]

he's a businessmen, not a warrior. He'll strike a deal.

He may indeed eventually strike a deal, to get the country back.

He will strike a deal to get back, but not get the country back. That would only happen with violence in the streets.

[hammered]

The current politcal struggle is more than just Thaksin versus the coup makers.

[cclub75]

They are nowhere near demise, and they don't need retirement money as they have already retired. These old guys are the ones who ACTUALLY RUN the country, and have been for decades. Not personally, of course - they have governments as their front men. Thaksin thought for a moment that the country was free for all, you only need votes. It doesn't work that way here. You need approval from "elite" first. It's THEIR country.

I would disagree.... Apparently it has been a difficult process to... form the government.

And why would the real elite want to come up front, and actually work in the light ? And especially for a dead-end mission : aka "interim government until next elections".

As you say, they don't need it.

This is why nobody wanted the job.

He's a coward, he's not looking for confrontation when his life is at stake - he's a businessmen, not a warrior. He'll strike a deal.

Again, the recent events reveal another light.

If he was a coward, he would stay quietly in his appartment in London, enjoying his super wealth. And just waiting for better days.

Why sending his wife ? Why making himself some noise in China ? Why letting rumors going on (now he is announced in Chiang Mai. Last week it was Singapore etc.) For what reason he wanted to see the new boss of TRT ?

He is playing with the nerves of junta. He's driving them crazy. And on that level, I'm afraid they can not cope with it... Too old school.

Edited November 3, 2006 by cclub75

[ColPyat]

The current politcal struggle is more than just Thaksin versus the coup makers.

Very true.

If one simplifies the present situation to a Thaksin contra junta struggle has no idea about the complexities of power distribution and long ongoing social conflicts in Thailand.

[Old Man River]

The current politcal struggle is more than just Thaksin versus the coup makers.

For the average Thai citizen it is more than Thaksin vs. the coup makers, but not for Thaksin. Prior to the coup he had it all.

[Thaising]

Psychology games by having his spokesmen announcing he is here and there in confusing his opponents that allow his cronies to works out a strategy to turn the table on these political games.

[lukamar]

For what reason he wanted to see the new boss of TRT ?

He is playing with the nerves of junta. He's driving them crazy. And on that level, I'm afraid they can not cope with it... Too old school.

It was made very clear that the new leader of the TRT was only a temporary position when he took the post. Sort of a caretaker leader...

I have to agree with your second statement.

<snip>

/Mod Edit - Please re-read the pinned topic in the News Forum, and keep speculation to a minimum.

This post has had to be "sanitized" due to the current restrictions.

Thanks for your understanding.

Edited November 3, 2006 by Jai Dee

[Losangels]

The current politcal struggle is more than just Thaksin versus the coup makers.

Very true.

If one simplifies the present situation to a Thaksin contra junta struggle has no idea about the complexities of power distribution and long ongoing social conflicts in Thailand.

It seems that Taksin is confident enough to think he can safely return here.

He must believe/know he has enough to support him. This is a dangerous scenario for the country

[hammered]

The current politcal struggle is more than just Thaksin versus the coup makers.

For the average Thai citizen it is more than Thaksin vs. the coup makers, but not for Thaksin. Prior to the coup he had it all.

Yes but surely even Mr. Thaksin must realise that it was all built on carefully formed alliances and common interests of divers groups and business interests. Some of these alliances still exist but some have been broken to a variety of degrees.

[ColPyat]

It seems that Taksin is confident enough to think he can safely return here.

He must believe/know he has enough to support him. This is a dangerous scenario for the country

It is at the present moment moot to speculate on Thaksin's intensions, as nobody knows what he is planning (and i would speculate that he himself does not exactly know how he is going to proceed). There are presently far more dangerous scenarios for the country than just Thaksin's return.

[Old Man River]

The current politcal struggle is more than just Thaksin versus the coup makers.

Very true.

If one simplifies the present situation to a Thaksin contra junta struggle has no idea about the complexities of power distribution and long ongoing social conflicts in Thailand.

Colpyat, If you ever sat in a private meeting with members of the Thai elite of varying levels, it becomes quickly apparent where the real power lies. This is how it has been since Thailand was Siam. In the case of Dr. Thaksin, he upset the people that you do not upset in this country. Hence, it was about power distribution. Long, ongoing social conflicts were side issues for this coup, although they have to be addressed before national reconciliation can take place.

[Jai Dee]

PUBLIC WARNING

Please read this pinned topic in the News Forum, and keep speculation to a minimum.

Some posts in this thread have had to be "sanitized" due to the current restrictions.

Thanks for your understanding.

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Best to take it to the next step. Pure speculation ENOUGH