Thailand looking shaky

[webfact]

Thailand looking shaky

Author: Editors, East Asia Forum

CANBERRA: -- Thailand is struggling. The economy has stagnated and its political system is going backwards. This May marks two years since the coup Thailands second in less than a decade with the military government still in control. Thailand is also languishing in a middle income trap.

Its not easy becoming a rich country or a democracy. Singapore and Brunei are the only high income countries in Southeast Asia (and they are not large countries). The only Southeast Asian country to make the successful transition to democracy so far is Indonesia. Myanmar has started down that path.

Things were looking up for Thailand before the Asian financial crisis in 1997. High rates of economic growth and the transition to democracy had the country on the right trajectory. It appeared Thailand was right behind its Northeast Asian neighbours Japan, Taiwan and South Korea in getting rich, and on the way to consolidating democracy. But like many in Asia it was hit hard by the crisis of the late 1990s and seems now to have lost its way. The people of Thailand dont currently enjoy the high incomes or political freedoms to which they aspire and the future prospects are not good for either.

Full story: http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/02/01/thailand-looking-shaky/

-- EAST ASIA FORUM 2016-02-01

[jaywalker]

I wouldn't call it shaky. More like wobbly, on a tightrope, over a gorge.

Edited February 1, 2016 by jaywalker

[jacky54]

How come the baht holds up so well?

[trogers]

How come the baht holds up so well?

Yes. Shaky, wobbly, danger in falling into the gorge, economic growth in the 2s...

Compared with China's 6+% growth and a currency devaluation of 20%.

Seems the world could not make up it's mind!

[Thailand]

I wonder what the problem is?

[terryp]

Its obvious the writer of this piece need a re-education visit to the nearest camp

Baht is only holding because of high season and the flow of all the FX buying baht ....its wont be long now

[mgjackson69]

Considering that the baht was at 28.70 to the US dollar in April 2013, and at 32.25 to the US dollar in April 2015, I would not say the baht is "holding strong".

Granted, it is not at that magic 40.00 to the US dollar that we saw in 2005 (easy math), but it is trending that way and has been since 2013.

[NCC1701A]

"The people of Thailand don’t currently enjoy the high incomes or political freedoms to which they aspire — and the future prospects are not good for either."

be careful what you wish for, Thailand.

resist all outside influences with your last breath.

real police, traffic laws enforced, traffic tickets, speed traps, computer criminal record database, driving record for insurance companies, soaring auto insurance costs, wear your helmet, seat belt, pass a real driving test, maintain your vehicle, must be 18 to ride a scooter, CCTV cameras that work, watching everywhere you go, emission controls, parking tickets, parking meters, paying taxes for all income, tax audits, property tax, rice tax, fishing tax, fishing license to fish from a bridge, permits for everything you do, no burning fields, catalytic converters on all restaurants, no food carts, no street vendors, business licenses, health inspectors, food inspectors, liability law suits, public safety restrictions, real fire departments, fire safety inspections, building codes, electrical codes, strict zoning laws, unions, soaring health care costs, the UN, global warming , draconian environmental laws, planting rice bad for the environment, rice causes diabetes, "proper" education, "freedom of speech", demonetization and destruction of your culture, English, IMF, new immigration laws for diversification, farangs elected to public office, farangs owning land, business and banks, farangs in the police, military and government, rule of law, no drinking in public, no urinating in public, no smoking, no parking, no loitering, beach closed after dark, no fireworks, no guns, no littering, no drinking or fires on the beaches, no food sold on beaches, trash containers, police helicopters over head 24/7, intellectual property rights, human rights, animal rights, no death camps, no slaves...

and of course no gogo's and no bargirls.

in other words, welcome to California.

Edited February 1, 2016 by NCC1701A

[stickylies]

I wonder what the problem is?

all together: NO BPOBLÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈM!

[jaywalker]

"The people of Thailand don’t currently enjoy the high incomes or political freedoms to which they aspire — and the future prospects are not good for either."

be careful what you wish for, Thailand.

resist all outside influences with your last breath.

real police, traffic laws enforced, traffic tickets, speed traps, computer criminal record database, driving record for insurance companies, soaring auto insurance costs, wear your helmet, seat belt, pass a real driving test, maintain your vehicle, must be 18 to ride a scooter, CCTV cameras that work, watching everywhere you go, emission controls, parking tickets, parking meters, paying taxes for all income, tax audits, property tax, rice tax, fishing tax, fishing license to fish from a bridge, permits for everything you do, no burning fields, catalytic converters on all restaurants, no food carts, no street vendors, business licenses, health inspectors, food inspectors, liability law suits, public safety restrictions, real fire departments, fire safety inspections, building codes, electrical codes, strict zoning laws, unions, soaring health care costs, the UN, global warming , draconian environmental laws, planting rice bad for the environment, rice causes diabetes, "proper" education, "freedom of speech", demonetization and destruction of your culture, English, IMF, new immigration laws for diversification, farangs elected to public office, farangs owning land, business and banks, farangs in the police, military and government, rule of law, no drinking in public, no urinating in public, no smoking, no parking, no loitering, beach closed after dark, no fireworks, no guns, no littering, no drinking or fires on the beaches, no food sold on beaches, trash containers, police helicopters over head 24/7, intellectual property rights, human rights, animal rights, no death camps, no slaves...

and of course no gogo's and no bargirls.

in other words, welcome to California.

All too true. It's a slippery slope.

We'd all like a few of the things you mention, but many of them truly are ludicrous.

------------------------------------

"catalytic converters on all restaurants"

They put those on restaurants?

[kinmaew]

I think they are doing great. Keep doing what you are doing, I will keep all my money here and then can afford even more super cheap extended stays over there. PS Noi, I will never buy your mother a house, you can take that to the bank.

[Hawk]

The problem with Thailand is internal, the last two coups have wrecked the place, too much interference by unknowledgeable people meddling in things that they simply do not understand, such as politics, the economy and ordinary people.

As for the Baht, the Bank of Thailand is artificially keeping it high. The government believe that a weaker Baht would suggest weakness instead of thinking that a depreciation of the Baht would help boost exports etc.

[eaglesflight]

The problem with Thailand is internal, the last two coups have wrecked the place, too much interference by unknowledgeable people meddling in things that they simply do not understand, such as politics, the economy and ordinary people.

As for the Baht, the Bank of Thailand is artificially keeping it high. The government believe that a weaker Baht would suggest weakness instead of thinking that a depreciation of the Baht would help boost exports etc.

That's just not true; they don't have the financial resources to keep it artificially high.

Edited February 1, 2016 by eaglesflight

[AlexRRR]

How come the baht holds up so well?

It doesn't float like most currencies its fixed, can you imagine the buy up by foreign capital?

[Barnet]

The financial crisis had nothing to do with democracy failing. The fact the country is still on it's backside has nothing to do with it either. The blame is 100% down to mis-management and a population of people who think they don't have to change or make an effort to get better from life.

Take the current drought problems, how does the public react? Blame the govt. Blame, blame, blame until any questions of themself can be ignored. They've been told countless times for years on end to conserve water and use it wisely. Their attitude is the same for this as everything else in life - it won't affect me. Global warming....nah, mai pen rai, let the rest of the world take care of us whilst we throw our crap all over the country. Burn, pollute until your heart's content, we're not included in the global thingy.

[eaglesflight]

How come the baht holds up so well?

It doesn't float like most currencies its fixed, can you imagine the buy up by foreign capital?

That doesn't make any sense. Also, what do you think it's fixed to?

[trogers]

How come the baht holds up so well?

It doesn't float like most currencies its fixed, can you imagine the buy up by foreign capital?

That doesn't make any sense. Also, what do you think it's fixed to?

Comments made by the young who were totters during the Tom Yum Kung crisis...

[phoenixdoglover]

"The people of Thailand don’t currently enjoy the high incomes or political freedoms to which they aspire — and the future prospects are not good for either."

be careful what you wish for, Thailand.

resist all outside influences with your last breath.

real police, traffic laws enforced, traffic tickets, speed traps, computer criminal record database, driving record for insurance companies, soaring auto insurance costs, wear your helmet, seat belt, pass a real driving test, maintain your vehicle, must be 18 to ride a scooter, CCTV cameras that work, watching everywhere you go, emission controls, parking tickets, parking meters, paying taxes for all income, tax audits, property tax, rice tax, fishing tax, fishing license to fish from a bridge, permits for everything you do, no burning fields, catalytic converters on all restaurants, no food carts, no street vendors, business licenses, health inspectors, food inspectors, liability law suits, public safety restrictions, real fire departments, fire safety inspections, building codes, electrical codes, strict zoning laws, unions, soaring health care costs, the UN, global warming , draconian environmental laws, planting rice bad for the environment, rice causes diabetes, "proper" education, "freedom of speech", demonetization and destruction of your culture, English, IMF, new immigration laws for diversification, farangs elected to public office, farangs owning land, business and banks, farangs in the police, military and government, rule of law, no drinking in public, no urinating in public, no smoking, no parking, no loitering, beach closed after dark, no fireworks, no guns, no littering, no drinking or fires on the beaches, no food sold on beaches, trash containers, police helicopters over head 24/7, intellectual property rights, human rights, animal rights, no death camps, no slaves...

and of course no gogo's and no bargirls.

in other words, welcome to California.

All too true. It's a slippery slope.

We'd all like a few of the things you mention, but many of them truly are ludicrous.

------------------------------------

"catalytic converters on all restaurants"

They put those on restaurants?

The regulation is:

"No person shall operate an existing chain-driven charbroiler on and after (twenty-four months from date of adoption) unless it is equipped and operated with a catalytic oxidizer control device..."

However, the rationale for air pollution control over the past 40 years has been fairly simple:

1) Eliminate pollutants that contribute significantly to visual pollution

2) Eliminate pollutants that affect human health

On item 2), the rules are generally predicated on the cost of pollution control being less than the cost of treating adverse health effects, lung disease, and deaths (loss of family income, etc.).

As for the regulations on commercial charcoal grills, these were implemented because it was determined they were very high sources of harmful pollutants, much worse than many other types of things we expect to be regulated, such as diesel trucks and buses.

On a personal note, I'm old enough to remember Los Angeles before all these "stupid regulations" came into effect. Kind of like Chiang Mai in burning season.

[craigt3365]

How come the baht holds up so well?

Yes. Shaky, wobbly, danger in falling into the gorge, economic growth in the 2s...

Compared with China's 6+% growth and a currency devaluation of 20%.

Seems the world could not make up it's mind!

China's "reported" 6+% growth. Which few believe. The currency devaluation is spot on.

[somo]

The problem with Thailand is internal, the last two coups have wrecked the place, too much interference by unknowledgeable people meddling in things that they simply do not understand, such as politics, the economy and ordinary people.

As for the Baht, the Bank of Thailand is artificially keeping it high. The government believe that a weaker Baht would suggest weakness instead of thinking that a depreciation of the Baht would help boost exports etc.

The first paragraph is partially true but the second is total <deleted>.

[ajarnmarc]

"The people of Thailand don’t currently enjoy the high incomes or political freedoms to which they aspire — and the future prospects are not good for either."

be careful what you wish for, Thailand.

resist all outside influences with your last breath.

real police, traffic laws enforced, traffic tickets, speed traps, computer criminal record database, driving record for insurance companies, soaring auto insurance costs, wear your helmet, seat belt, pass a real driving test, maintain your vehicle, must be 18 to ride a scooter, CCTV cameras that work, watching everywhere you go, emission controls, parking tickets, parking meters, paying taxes for all income, tax audits, property tax, rice tax, fishing tax, fishing license to fish from a bridge, permits for everything you do, no burning fields, catalytic converters on all restaurants, no food carts, no street vendors, business licenses, health inspectors, food inspectors, liability law suits, public safety restrictions, real fire departments, fire safety inspections, building codes, electrical codes, strict zoning laws, unions, soaring health care costs, the UN, global warming , draconian environmental laws, planting rice bad for the environment, rice causes diabetes, "proper" education, "freedom of speech", demonetization and destruction of your culture, English, IMF, new immigration laws for diversification, farangs elected to public office, farangs owning land, business and banks, farangs in the police, military and government, rule of law, no drinking in public, no urinating in public, no smoking, no parking, no loitering, beach closed after dark, no fireworks, no guns, no littering, no drinking or fires on the beaches, no food sold on beaches, trash containers, police helicopters over head 24/7, intellectual property rights, human rights, animal rights, no death camps, no slaves...

and of course no gogo's and no bargirls.

in other words, welcome to California.

All too true. It's a slippery slope.

We'd all like a few of the things you mention, but many of them truly are ludicrous.

------------------------------------

"catalytic converters on all restaurants"

They put those on restaurants?

I don't desire any of the items on the list here,

that's why I stayed here upon my first visit...

There wasn't any of that noise,

all was well,

and peaceful.

Showing me how simple life could be and enjoyed.

[phantomfiddler]

I do believe the original post is total nonsense ! People are making much more than they were years ago, easily witnessed by the fact that just about everyone is well dressed with designer jeans (why someone would pay extra for a pair of jeans covered with holes completely evades me), has an extremely flashy smartphone, and the country is as stable as it has ever been. When I first came here waitresses in Bangkok were making 35 Baht a day ! Canberra obviously hasn,t got a clue what it is talking about

[Emster23]

Indonesia went through same financial crisis in 97 as Thailand did, yet they are cited as having democracy now. Hmm I wonder how they did it?

"The people of Thailand dont currently enjoy the high incomes or political freedoms to which they aspire...." Aspiring is one thing, work is altogether a different matter.

[trogers]

Indonesia went through same financial crisis in 97 as Thailand did, yet they are cited as having democracy now. Hmm I wonder how they did it?

"The people of Thailand dont currently enjoy the high incomes or political freedoms to which they aspire...." Aspiring is one thing, work is altogether a different matter.

They did not have a national rice scam nor amnesty bill for a fugitive...

[Eric Loh]

Baht and other emerging currencies gained bit of strength in last 2 weeks due to few reasons. The currencies were free falling when the FED raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade in December and signaled the U.S. economy has turned the corner and more rate hikes expected. Then reality hit home that the economy is really not that spectacular and rates hikes will be slowed down. There was also the Chinese assurance that they will not do a competitive devaluation and will inject large amount of liquidity. Lastly Japan dropped a below zero interest rates and now the region is awash with lots of liquidity. SET raised and funds started to flow in and Baht strengthened with other emerging market currencies. There are no signs of BOT intervention in the money market to drive up the Baht. All due to market forces.

[bangkapi]

nothing

Edited February 1, 2016 by bangkapi

[Taffyfromflint]

I do believe the original post is total nonsense ! People are making much more than they were years ago, easily witnessed by the fact that just about everyone is well dressed with designer jeans (why someone would pay extra for a pair of jeans covered with holes completely evades me), has an extremely flashy smartphone, and the country is as stable as it has ever been. When I first came here waitresses in Bangkok were making 35 Baht a day ! Canberra obviously hasn,t got a clue what it is talking about

Seems to me that the yuppie population ( designer jeans with rips) have more money than ever. Note the number of new cars on the road especially high end, BMW, Merc's, 4WD suped up speed demons, Harley D's. How do they do it if not on higher incomes than a few (short) years ago.?

[blackcab]

I do believe the original post is total nonsense ! People are making much more than they were years ago, easily witnessed by the fact that just about everyone is well dressed with designer jeans (why someone would pay extra for a pair of jeans covered with holes completely evades me), has an extremely flashy smartphone, and the country is as stable as it has ever been. When I first came here waitresses in Bangkok were making 35 Baht a day ! Canberra obviously hasn,t got a clue what it is talking about

Seems to me that the yuppie population ( designer jeans with rips) have more money than ever. Note the number of new cars on the road especially high end, BMW, Merc's, 4WD suped up speed demons, Harley D's. How do they do it if not on higher incomes than a few (short) years ago.?

Credit.

[hugocnx]

How come the baht holds up so well?

Since Phrayut the Thai Baht rules the world's economy.

Edited February 1, 2016 by hugocnx

[hugocnx]

Its obvious the writer of this piece need a re-education visit to the nearest camp

Baht is only holding because of high season and the flow of all the FX buying baht ....its wont be long now

What high season do you mean? Not the current tourist season right? and not the bad economic situation right?

It's all a game. Are sure the writer needs re-education or..